The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[iEnri]

The Marvels is having awful pre sales in Brazil and Mexico (much worse than any superhero movie, worse than Flash) as well. Considering these countries are huge markets for the MCU, shouldn't we expect even worse numbers on Europe considering the franchise is much less popular there? And if thats the case, maybe The Marvels really is dead on arrival and it is over.

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

This. not doing at this point is not an option unless they just want to ride this out.  

I fear the super late embargo means they’re just not doing fan screenings at all and are gonna ride this out 

 

In which case it’s probably DOA even if an 11th hour end to the SAG strike comes to a futile rescue

Opening weekend is fucked (possibly sub-$50M), only hope for it at this point is phenomenal WoM and Elemental style legs which seems a bit far fetched to me

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, Relevation said:

I fear the super late embargo means they’re just not doing fan screenings at all and are gonna ride this out 

 

In which case it’s probably DOA even if an 11th hour end to the SAG strike comes to a futile rescue

Opening weekend is fucked (possibly sub-$50M), only hope for it at this point is phenomenal WoM and Elemental style legs which seems a bit far fetched to me

Elemental is an original IP and a kids movie, there was precedent for it doing 3x the opening week as we have seen that happen to kids movies with great WOM before (Nemo, Ice Age, Despicable Me, Zootopia, Up, etc.)

 

The leggiest CBM sequels this century by DOM total/Oweek (Spider-Verse 2, Gotg3, and TDK) only managed 2.2-2.3x.

[bakedpotato]

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/27/2023 at 6:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	287	31233	0.92%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-20

 

EA on Saturday = 211 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.721x) of Elemental $1.73M Previews

(0.274x) of Haunted Mansion $848k Previews

 

COMPS AVG: $1.29M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
171	295	31233	0.94%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-19

 

EA on Saturday = 213 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.736x) of Elemental $1.77M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.77M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/27/2023 at 6:25 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-25

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	568	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

5

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-25

 

(1.531x) of Elemental $3.67M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

427 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

83 seats sold over 10 showings 

 

Going to agree with @keysersoze123 not seeing much signs of a breakout but its an original animation so still very early 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

WISH

 

Tuesday Previews 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
162	574	29762	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-24

 

(1.487x) of Elemental $3.57M Previews *Not adjusted for ATP discount Tuesday* 

 

429 seats sold over 6 showings at MTC1 Disney 

 

*Saturday EA* separate from previews 

100 seats sold over 10 showings 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 10/27/2023 at 6:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2302	52152	4.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

6

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-13

 

 

(0.431x) of GOTG3~$7.55M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.55M

 

OOF 💀

 Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Marvels 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
259	2374	52152	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

72

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-12

 

(0.438x) of GOTG3~$7.67M Previews

Comps AVG: $7.67M

[M37]

3 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Great breakdown as always. Are you concerned at all about current pace? Seems like it's been dropping against every comp lately. I assume that's a bad omen for its T-14/ T-7 multi. But as a newbie I'm wrong a lot. Basically wondering why GOTG3/Eternals-like should be expected from here when pace has seemed so poor. 

Current pace is poor, but I do genuinely believe Spooky Season takes a lot of air out of presales for November releases, so it may not mean much but a lot of ground to make up (higher pace) in final week after calendar turns 

Edited October 29, 2023 by M37

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Elemental is an original IP and a kids movie, there was precedent for it doing 3x the opening week as we have seen that happen to kids movies with great WOM before (Nemo, Ice Age, Despicable Me, Zootopia, Up, etc.)

 

The leggiest CBM sequels this century by DOM total/Oweek (Spider-Verse 2, Gotg3, and TDK) only managed 2.2-2.3x.

 

Wonder Woman was 2.8X its Opening Week...I know you said sequels, but is this a sequel in the truest sense?  I guess, although it's trying hard to not be.

Edited October 29, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

3 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Elemental is an original IP and a kids movie, there was precedent for it doing 3x the opening week as we have seen that happen to kids movies with great WOM before (Nemo, Ice Age, Despicable Me, Zootopia, Up, etc.)

 

The leggiest CBM sequels this century by DOM total/Oweek (Spider-Verse 2, Gotg3, and TDK) only managed 2.2-2.3x.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I will get previews for both MTC today unless it does not work :-). MTC2 takes ages to finish and my last run was on 17th night and it finished at 16671. Not thinking its going to move the needle that much in 10 1/2 days later. Problem delaying premier/social media reactions wont help. i still think they should do fan shows next week like what they did for Guardians 3. 

 

MTC1 was at 45171 as on 24th evening and it was coasting at that point. its still around 20% under Eternals but with better ATP. Guardians 24hr PS was at 68696 and this movie wont hit that number until final week based on pace and lack of catalysts. Friday also looks incredibly weak(23437 as of 10/21) and I thought it will do better due to veterans day boost. Let us see if we  are seeing any boost. 

The Marvels

MTC1 previews(T-12) - 48455/697388 963642.07 3560 shows +3284

MTC2 Previews - 17320/502126 3626 shows// There is some issue getting ticket prices for some shows and so I am ignoring it for now. 

 

4 days of data for MTC1. MTC2 I am not happy. Let me get the data again tomorrow. 22 shows did not return anything. Either they are no longer there or there is technical issue. Anyway irrespective of that, its just plodding along at this point. It still sucks. I will see if I can get friday later and will look at previews again tomorrow to gauge the pace. Freddy was at least interesting to track :-( Also feeling down after hearing the sad news of Perry passing away. Just watched Studio 60 on Sunset Strip pilot again. he was charismatic and natural on screen :-( 

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

4 hours ago, iEnri said:

The Marvels is having awful pre sales in Brazil and Mexico (much worse than any superhero movie, worse than Flash) as well. Considering these countries are huge markets for the MCU, shouldn't we expect even worse numbers on Europe considering the franchise is much less popular there? And if thats the case, maybe The Marvels really is dead on arrival and it is over.

Geez, this is going to be a new precedent for a worldwide sequel drop isn’t it? Reviews simply have to come to the rescue here or it’s all over. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I messed up big time with FNAF MiniTC2 tracking.

Basically what I was tracking for Previews was Friday.

What I tracked for FRI was SAT. I never tracked Previews for it. 🫣

That explains the bad walkups I thought it had in the chain because I never really got the final day for Friday.

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26338	27517	1179	4.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

19

 

T-13 Comps:

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	56.52		87	2086		0/96	13455/15541	13.42%		6409	18.40%		6.07m
GOTG3	32.06		83	3677		0/203	25377/29054	12.66%		10750	10.97%		5.61m
TLM	72.60		97	1624		0/154	21095/22719	7.15%		6561	17.97%		7.48m
AtSV	56.98		83	2069		0/129	18720/20789	9.95%		9744	12.10%		9.89m
Flash	92.04		54	1281		0/178	23867/25148	5.09%		5327	22.13%		8.93m
Indy 5	89.52		59	1317		0/128	18924/20241	6.51%		4767	24.73%		6.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     167/8601  [1.94% sold]
Matinee:    39/2548  [1.53% | 3.31% of all tickets sold]
3D:            74/5021  [1.47% | 6.28% of all tickets sold]

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26312	27517	1205	4.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

26

 

T-12 Comps:

	%		Sold T-12	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	55.86		71	2157		0/96	13384/15541	13.88%		6409	18.80%		6.00m
GOTG3	31.95		95	3772		0/203	25282/29054	12.98%		10750	11.21%		5.59m
TLM	69.49		110	1734		0/154	20987/22721	7.63%		6561	18.37%		7.16m
AtSV	55.94		85	2154		0/129	18632/20786	10.36%		9744	12.37%		9.71m
Flash	91.98		29	1310		0/178	23838/25148	5.21%		5327	22.62%		8.92m
Indy 5	89.06		36	1353		0/128	18888/20241	6.68%		4767	25.28%		6.41m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:       174/8601  [2.02% sold]
Matinee:    41/2548  [1.61% | 3.40% of all tickets sold]
3D:             72/5021  [1.43% | 5.98% of all tickets sold]

[Mulder]

No where near as reliable as our amazing trackers, but going by my own personal anecdote, the amount of tickets sold for The Marvels at my local is the worst I've ever seen MCU wise.

[Grand Cine]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

The Marvels

MTC1 previews(T-12) - 48455/697388 963642.07 3560 shows +3284

MTC2 Previews - 17320/502126 3626 shows// There is some issue getting ticket prices for some shows and so I am ignoring it for now. 

 

4 days of data for MTC1. MTC2 I am not happy. Let me get the data again tomorrow. 22 shows did not return anything. Either they are no longer there or there is technical issue. Anyway irrespective of that, its just plodding along at this point. It still sucks. I will see if I can get friday later and will look at previews again tomorrow to gauge the pace. Freddy was at least interesting to track 😞 Also feeling down after hearing the sad news of Perry passing away. Just watched Studio 60 on Sunset Strip pilot again. he was charismatic and natural on screen 😞

 

 

 

I have comparaison with another recent super hero movies ( at MTC1)

 

Eternals :  64347/366992 1126631.01 1865 shows

Shang Chi :  37112/319763 635990.20 1569 shows

Black Adam ( T-10 ) : 36240/470864 671067.34

 

I don't have Flash until T-7 ot T-6 and the tracking for GOTG 3 and Ant Man is with MTC 2 even if I see with the errors of The Marvels around 1/3 of this two .

 

I think the Shang Chi and Black Adam are too higher even i think the comp will be down , i think Eternals is better , it's around 8 million .

 

I think with a 6,5/7X of previews i think at this point , The Marvels could have a OW in the 50's range which is not good at all.

 

[vafrow]

On 10/28/2023 at 7:06 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-13, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 661

New sales: 33

Growth: 5.3%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 16.9

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.441x of ATSV for $7.6M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.4 (2.5)

Early evening: 80.9 (82.2)

Late Evening: 16.0 (14.6)

 

Really not much of anything.

 

The Marvels, T-12, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 686

New sales: 25

Growth: 3.8%

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.394x of ATSV for $6.8M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 2.3 (2.4)

Early evening: 81.3 (80.9)

Late Evening: 16.3 (16.0)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.3

Early Evening: 32.8

Late Evening: 7.5

 

Update remains fairly dull. I decided to report on the showtime data in a different way. I'm showing average tickets sold by showtime slot. I figure that actually gives a data point that's easier to put into context. I'm not sire if I'll always report on the percentage breakdown and this the whole way through or for future tracks. I wanted to see how well it tells the story on the data.

 

As always, open to feedback.

 

 

 

 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

AMC is getting into the mystery movie game now with AMC Screen Unseen: new movie, $5 tickets, ratings info provided but title not revealed until showtime. The first one is Monday November 6 at 7 PM (the same time Regal is doing another one of their mystery movies). The sales are pretty brisk in major markets but it looks to be part of A-list.

Edited October 29, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[M37]

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-12 Update

 

The chart and a few quick words

See comments here as to why these particular comps were chosen.

 

Overall the values vs these comps were ... better than I had expected? The view of the data overall depends on whether one focuses solely on recent MCU history, where GOTG3 had an atypically strong finish and might be considered closer to an upper bound, or if the lower sales volume for Marvels (and time of year) makes GOTG3/Eternals more of the baseline, with room to go higher (or yes, lower).  I'm of the second opinion, and with these comps looks to me like ~$7-$8M, with some higher uncertainty and IMO absolutely room to go higher

 

Funny enough, my mental ballpark estimate has been 8x8, meaning roughly $8M Thursday and up to 8x, and to me the data is roughly in line with that preview value (IM TBD later). But probably are going to have to wait until final week if not days to really narrow down trajectory and a more precise Thursday value

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

AMC is getting into the mystery movie game now with AMC Screen Unseen: new movie, $5 tickets, ratings info provided but title not revealed until showtime. The first one is Monday November 6 at 7 PM (the same time Regal is doing another one of their mystery movies). The sales are pretty brisk in major markets but it looks to be part of A-list.

Looking at the listed runtime (109 minutes) + PG-13 makes it seem sort of obvious the movie is Next Goal Wins for both this and the Regal screening.