The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Pinacolada]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

good luck

$30m over the Thanksgiving 5 day weekend doesn't feel like that tall of an ask, especially if the initial Deadline projection is $23m. 

 

30m 5 day over Thanksgiving is like asking for a 23m 3 day OW

 

It just needs to be good

Edited November 3, 2023 by Pinacolada

[M37]

13 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

$30m over the Thanksgiving 5 day weekend doesn't feel like that tall of an ask, especially if the initial Deadline projection is $23m. 

 

30m 5 day over Thanksgiving is like asking for a 23m 3 day OW

 

It just needs to be good

The only adult drama* that has grossed more than $70M over the last two years (about where KOTFM is likely to end up fwiw) is Crawdads, which got there by legs, not a big opening.

 

It needs more than to just be good - which can help WOM and legs through a weaker December - it would have to break free of what is now mostly a niche audience, and do so in a way that gets people in the door for opening.  Joaquin is no Lady Gaga

 

(Don't think Elvis belongs in this category give the star status, and I don't think Napoleon has the same relevance in the public consciousness as The King)

[Relevation]

59 minutes ago, M37 said:

We'll see how next couple of days go, but for now count me in the HG:BoSS over Marvels camp (at least for Thursday previews, OWs may be fairly close)

Huh, I’m actually of the opposite opinion 

I think THG is pretty safely going above Marvels OW but I think it’ll be close for Thurs previews. Do you expect THG to have a more frontloaded IM?

 

I think THG will get an 8x IM (FNAF did 7.77x and this will have better reviews + a slightly older audience) and The Marvels with more like a 7x IM, between BPWF’s 6.5x and Eternals’ 7.5x 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Just confirming, these are T-14 comps, not Day 2, correct? If so, would think those values - except maybe Blue Beetle - are more representative of the floor given the much shorter sales window

 

 

We'll see how next couple of days go, but for now count me in the HG:BoSS over Marvels camp (at least for Thursday previews, OWs may be fairly close)

Yes T-14 

[MovieMan89]

What a disastrous November. If Wish doesn’t break out I’m not sure if this will ever be topped for a November low (covid years excluded). 

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

What a disastrous November. If Wish doesn’t break out I’m not sure if this will ever be topped for a November low (covid years excluded). 

 

FWIW, the numbers I am seeing out of Sacramento for Wish (all unofficial since I don't have good comps for them against Elemental — yet) have me rather encouraged it can break out. Not that it will.. just that it can.

 

Discount Tue is throwing a bit of a wildcard into analysis at the mo.  But I have to say I am somewhat... quietly, emphasis on quietly, bullish on Wish.

[Relevation]

18 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

What a disastrous November. If Wish doesn’t break out I’m not sure if this will ever be topped for a November low (covid years excluded). 

Idk how disastrous this Nov will be when there’s only one movie having a terrible presales run right now. HG looks decent fir a $55M+ debut and a $170M+ run, Trolls should get over $25M OW and $100M DOM, Wish looks honestly like it could play for $220M or higher, and I’m personally bullish on the $100M+ chances of Napoleon

 

Frankly this looks fine if you ignore the very real possibility of The Marvels opening in Morbius territory, there’s just no real mega $150M+ opener to pay attention to and rather a broader sprinkling of $30-60M openers that will hopefully have good legs for the most part

[HummingLemon496]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

Idk how disastrous this Nov will be when there’s only one movie having a terrible presales run right now. HG looks decent fir a $55M+ debut and a $170M+ run, Trolls should get over $25M OW and $100M DOM, Wish looks honestly like it could play for $220M or higher, and I’m personally bullish on the $100M+ chances of Napoleon

 

Frankly this looks fine if you ignore the very real possibility of The Marvels opening in Morbius territory, there’s just no real mega $150M+ opener to pay attention to and rather a broader sprinkling of $30-60M openers that will hopefully have good legs for the most part

Yeah even December is looking meh. Aquaman probably $30-40m, everything else will have a microscopic opening

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/29/2023 at 9:46 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	119	63	1032	21133	4.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		778	30	75.39
MTC1:		523	30	50.68
Marcus:		118	14	11.43
Alamo:		92	0	8.91
Other chains:		299	19	28.97

 

Comps:

0.68x Oppenheimer: $7.19 Million

0.97x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ EA): $8.7 Million

1.3x Indiana Jones 5: $9.4 Million

1.06x FNAF: $10.9 Million

 

Average: $9 Million

 

It looks better than I think it actually is, a lot of these comps sped up a lot from here on out, which I don't think The Marvels will be able to do. 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

The Marvels (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	123	206	1238	21847	5.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		917	139	74.07
MTC1:		666	143	53.8
Marcus:		144	26	11.63
Alamo:		85	-7	6.87
Other chains:		343	44	27.71

 

Figured out that some Alamo tickets were blocked off seats, hence the drop there.

 

Comps:

0.59x Oppenheimer: $6.15 Million

0.93x Mission Impossible 7 (w/ EA): $8.37 Million

1.43x Indiana Jones 5: $10.3 Million

0.99x FNAF: $10.23 Million

 

Average: $8.76 Million

 

Doing better here than in most other places, but it's a matter of bad comps imo. Will keep dropping with its bad pace

[abracadabra1998]

On 10/29/2023 at 9:55 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Trolls: Band Together (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 15 theaters	52	3	19	6184	0.31
Saturday Nov 4 EA: 13 theaters	13	138	358	1751	20.45
TOTALS:	65	141	377	7935	4.75

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		106	40	28.12
Marcus:		125	53	33.16
Alamo:		84	10	22.28
Other chains:		62	38	16.45

 

Comps (for EA ONLY):

0.75x TMNT EA (at T-6 for Monday, T-4 for Saturday): $1.23 Million

0.74x of MI7 EA on T-6: $1.48 million

 

The EA for this is looking pretty nice. Sadly, this is the last day I tracked TMNT, but I'm pegging it at $1.5-2 million at the moment. They're marketing this a lot (just saw SNF and SoFi Stadium are advertising this as I was putting this together lol). This depends on how expansive it it, of course. 13/20 theaters for my market is pretty nice, and hopefully representative of this thing nationally. Thursday sales will continue to be negligible until after EA hits.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Trolls: Band Together (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 19 theaters	67	13	32	8282	0.39
Saturday Nov 4 EA: 14 theaters	14	471	829	1867	44.4
TOTALS:	81	484	861	10149	8.48

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		239	133	27.76
Marcus:		222	97	25.78
Alamo:		111	27	12.89
Other chains:		289	227	33.57

 

Comps (for EA ONLY):

1.33x of MI7 EA on T-2/T-1: $2.66 Million

0.71x Barbie EA on T-2: $783k

 

The EA number is stupid good; I wish I had TMNT numbers for the final days, but oh well. I will update just the EA again tomorrow

 

On 10/30/2023 at 6:02 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Thanksgiving (T-17, Day 1, numbers taken around 6 PM CST):

Day: T-17	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	17	31	31	1738	1.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		18	18	58.06
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		9	9	29.03
Other chains:		4	4	12.9

 

Comps (Day 1, not T-17):

0.16x FNAF: $1.61 Million

0.58x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.67 Million

0.61x The Nun II: $1.88 Million

0.51x Saw X: $1.02 Million

 

Not a bad start at all since these are all existing IPs. Not tracking Priscilla this week since I don't think A24 will report those numbers, but eagerly looking at others' data. Hope it does well!

 

 

Thanksgiving (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	18	8	39	1816	2.15

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		19	18	48.72
Marcus:		0	0	0
Alamo:		18	9	46.15
Other chains:		2	4	5.13

 

Comps:

0.41x The Exorcist: Believer: $1.16 Million

[abracadabra1998]

On 11/1/2023 at 11:19 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-15, Day 1, taken around 11 PM CST):

Day: T-15	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	46	192	192	8021	2.39

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		155	155	80.73
MTC1:		158	158	82.29
Marcus:		10	10	5.21
Alamo:		18	18	9.38
Other chains:		6	6	3.13

 

Comps:

0.42x The Marvels Day 1 (10:30 PM count): ???
0.97x FNAF (6 PM count): $9.99 Million

 

Imperfect comps, in part due to my inconsistent count times. It was a long day at school today (parent-teacher conferences!), hence why my update and count are so late. Anyway, pretty close to what @TheFlatLannister is seeing, decent start but nothing too crazy. Heavyyyyyyy MTC1 overindex to start.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	49	52	244	9284	2.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		206	51	84.43
MTC1:		188	30	77.05
Marcus:		24	14	9.84
Alamo:		18	0	7.38
Other chains:		14	8	5.74

 

Comps:

0.5x The Marvels Day 2: ????

0.3x FNAF at T-14: $3.07 Million

0.72x TMNT at T-14 (w/ all EA): $3.97 Million

 

Went up against the Marvels on day 2, and this is not a bad place to be against those comps when their pre-sales window were longer.

 

The Color Purple (T-53):

Day: T-53	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	42	55	55	4403	1.25

 

Type of tix:		Total:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0
MTC1:		38	69.09
Marcus:		7	12.73
Alamo:		0	0
Other chains		10	18.18

 

This astounds me, who the hell is buying tickets for this so early.

 

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yeah even December is looking meh. Aquaman probably $30-40m, everything else will have a microscopic opening

It's the movies. Even if were not for the strikes this did not look like a fall/holiday movie season that was going to see a massive NWH or WOW type movie to carry it. It's gonna be this a way for awhile. FNAF no joke will probably be the last 80 million opening for awhile. As a movie fan I just hope we get some good movies that have legs and do well or better than their expectations.

[cooldude97]

Godzilla Minus One Tickets Now On sale

[PrinceRico]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Previews:

 

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	49	52	244	9284	2.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		206	51	84.43
MTC1:		188	30	77.05
Marcus:		24	14	9.84
Alamo:		18	0	7.38
Other chains:		14	8	5.74

 

Comps:

0.5x The Marvels Day 2: ????

0.3x FNAF at T-14: $3.07 Million

0.72x TMNT at T-14 (w/ all EA): $3.97 Million

 

Went up against the Marvels on day 2, and this is not a bad place to be against those comps when their pre-sales window were longer.

 

The Color Purple (T-53):

Day: T-53	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	42	55	55	4403	1.25

 

Type of tix:		Total:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0
MTC1:		38	69.09
Marcus:		7	12.73
Alamo:		0	0
Other chains		10	18.18

 

This astounds me, who the hell is buying tickets for this so early.

 

 The Original is considered a Steven Spielberg classic and this already has big buzz. Have a feeling this could be big this Christmas.

Edited November 3, 2023 by PrinceRico

[Hilts]

8 hours ago, Giorno said:

0.205x Barbie would be around 4.4m or so or was that just a accident with the %?

 

Woops good catch I think that was the T-14%. Day 2 is 50.7% of Barbie so $ figure is correct! I'll correct it now

[Hilts]

2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

This astounds me, who the hell is buying tickets for this so early.

 

Didn't have any comps that far out so held off posting but pretty much saw the same start in my region. ATP being quite low given the Monday release and around half those sold are matinee showings. Looks like people just getting their Xmas plans in early!

[M37]

5 hours ago, Relevation said:

Huh, I’m actually of the opposite opinion 

I think THG is pretty safely going above Marvels OW but I think it’ll be close for Thurs previews. Do you expect THG to have a more frontloaded IM?

 

I think THG will get an 8x IM (FNAF did 7.77x and this will have better reviews + a slightly older audience) and The Marvels with more like a 7x IM, between BPWF’s 6.5x and Eternals’ 7.5x 

Part of my issue is that I'm not sure who exactly will be the audience for HG:BoSS ... is it just going to be fans of the franchise who have now aged up 8 years from when Mockingjay P2 was posting a sub-7x and previews have since gotten earlier and grown larger? Or will it play less fan-ish, more friendly to GA/those who didn't rush on opening night/weekend previously?

 

Unlike FNAF, shouldn't be so teen heavy and keeping some audience home on Thursday school night and helping the IM. But even Fantastic Beasts 1 was 8.5x back in 2106, down to 7x for FB3 last year

[Porthos]

On 10/26/2023 at 11:51 PM, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-35 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10404	11019	615	5.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

47

 

Comp against TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.60472x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.07m] [1.2x adj]

 

====

 

Got to admit, I've been.... kinda impressed with the sales for this in the extreme low U curve right now.  Well, relatively speaking.  But, like, 47 tickets sold between T-42 and T-35 for a film that had already been on sale for nearly a month is not nothing.  I mean, not trying to oversell it here or anything.  Just sayin'... "kinda impressed — well, relatively speaking."

 

Next update, next Thursday Night (T-28).

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	71	10153	10801	648	6.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday

33

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.63717x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.14m] [1.2x adj]

 

Next update Next Thursday night.

[Porthos]

On 11/2/2023 at 12:05 AM, Porthos said:

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-15]

243/12306 (1.97% sold) [77 showings]

 

1.22111x GBA after one day of pre-sales                 [5.49m] [UNADJ FOR ATP HIKES SINCE 2021]

0.76415x FB3 after one day of pre-sales                [4.58m]

1.14085x Scream VI after one day of pre-sales      [6.50m] [UNADJ FOR ATP DIFF]

0.53524x TLM after one day of pre-sales               [5.51m]

0.23847x AtSV after one day of pre-sales              [4.14m]

0.38028x FNAF after one day of pre-sales             [3.92m]

0.43942x The Marvels after one day of pre-sales [???m]

 

===

 

I'd love to say this did fantastic or was worthy of a full track, but as the Q&D header intimated.... 

 

I mean, it's definitely not a bad start.  But not as strong as some other markets either.  Could just be using bad comps here, mind.  But took a variety of them and a lot of them are in a similar range.  Or at least similar-ish.

 

Still, a couple of them are interesting.  And it's kinda sorta close to my personal border.  Or rather, it might reach my informal Full Track border line, so I'll be loosely tracking it on my home sheet and updating here as the situation warrants. 

 

At the same time, a few of those comps would take a hit when it gets shifted to T-x.  On the third hand, if this shows strength on D2, D3, or D4 of pre-sales it might very well slip into Full Track territory.

 

So, like I said, gonna keep a loose eye on it and see where it goes from here.

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-14]

334/12879 (2.59% sold) [+91 tickets] [83 showings]

 

1.34677x GBA after two day of pre-sales                 [6.06m] [UNADJ FOR ATP HIKES SINCE 2021]

0.68163x FB3 after two day of pre-sales                  [4.09m]

1.36885x Scream VI after two day of pre-sales       [7.80m] [UNADJ FOR ATP DIFF]

0.61397x TLM after two day of pre-sales                 [6.32m]

0.26258x AtSV after two day of pre-sales               [4.56m]

0.39620x FNAF after two day of pre-sales              [4.08m]

0.53526x The Marvels after two day of pre-sales   [???m]

 

====

 

Yeeeaaah, I dunno.  Don't love that it fell against the FB3 comp (even while noting that over-performed locally).

 

Gonna do a T-x Q&D tomorrow for ALL comps and see how they shift.  Almost all of them will get a hatchet took to them, though some not as bad as it might seem. 

 

Still mostly more curious about the daily pace since we're relatively close to release than the overall comps that get spat out.  FWIW, GBA did start at T-17 and FB3 at T-16, so those comps won't be changed as much as the others.  Just have to see how it goes.

[Porthos]

On 11/2/2023 at 12:06 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	190	26252	27697	1445	5.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

63

 

T-8 Comps:

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	55.88		101	2586		0/100	13230/15816	16.35%		6409	22.55%		6.00m
GOTG3	32.77		170	4409		0/207	25574/29983	14.70%		10750	13.44%		5.74m
TLM	64.17		122	2252		0/165	21248/23500	9.58%		6561	22.02%		6.61m
AtSV	52.24		173	2766		0/140	19376/22142	12.49%		9744	14.83%		9.07m
Flash	87.05		111	1660		0/178	23488/25148	6.60%		5327	27.13%		8.44m
Indy 5	84.50		82	1710		0/135	18997/20707	8.26%		4767	30.31%		6.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     226/8665  [2.61% sold]
Matinee:    59/2546  [2.32% | 4.08% of all tickets sold]
3D:            96/5008  [1.92% | 6.64% of all tickets sold]

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	197	27321	28853	1532	5.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	1156
Total Seats Sold Today	87

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	57.75		67	2653		0/101	13315/15968	16.61%		6409	23.90%		6.20m
GOTG3	33.08		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	14.25%		5.79m
TLM	63.25		170	2422		0/168	21392/23814	10.17%		6561	23.35%		6.52m
AtSV	50.58		263	3029		0/140	19113/22142	13.68%		9744	15.72%		8.78m
Flash	88.35		74	1734		0/178	23414/25148	6.90%		5327	28.76%		8.57m
Indy 5	85.02		92	1802		0/134	18905/20707	8.70%		4767	32.14%		6.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     226/8665  [2.61% sold]
Matinee:    59/2546  [2.32% | 4.08% of all tickets sold]
3D:            96/5008  [1.92% | 6.64% of all tickets sold]