The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wonka is not a SH or fan driven movie. it will behave like a family driven movie. So presales are just one data point. Of course there is a definite ceiling on where it ends up OW. But for now I would not compare these to franchise movies. 

Yeah I think some are acting like this is the 3rd in a series or something after Depp Wonka and Wilder Wonka which this is a loose prequel too it sound like. So there is a expectation it should be have a hard core fanbase that will lead to a big thursday preview and OW. 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/4/2023 at 3:50 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 57670/265647 725296.18 1909 shows

12/26 - 13953/262217 172161.23 1869 shows

 

I have never seen this level of skew in Presales before. 

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 85925/313013 1084240.67 2220 shows

12/26 - 21665/301818 273271.59 2121 shows

 

WOW. I have to look at MTC2 to see how big the skew it has in big markets but MTC1 is blockbuster level for its OD.  

[MovieMan89]

Wonka: 25-30 OW, 13-16x

Migration: 12-16 OW, 11-13x

 

Santa been working on those LEGS this year, get ready 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/4/2023 at 2:47 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Migration MTC1

Previews - 1697/296635 23037.83 2028 shows

Friday - 2224/425626 29126.38 2855 shows

 

Less than 1 ticket per show average for both days :-)

Migration MTC1

Previews - 2839/298369 39787.17 2050 shows

Friday - 3138/431634 41982.82 2897 shows

12/25 - 3018/414677 37540.54 2825 shows

 

T6 days later at least it has sold more than 1 ticket per show :-) Plus added Christmas day sales. its going to depend on holiday run to make reasonable total domestic as OW wont be that good. 

[efialtes76]

33 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 85925/313013 1084240.67 2220 shows

12/26 - 21665/301818 273271.59 2121 shows

 

WOW. I have to look at MTC2 to see how big the skew it has in big markets but MTC1 is blockbuster level for its OD.  

Another Ali...

[jeffthehat]

On 12/9/2023 at 1:41 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

Wonka T-5

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Showtimes - 33

Seats sold - 558

Seats available - 5765

New sales - 4 (+0.7%)

 

Comps

 

0.464x Marvels T-5 = $3.06m

0.541x HG BoSS T-5 = $3.11m

---

 

Yeah this looks dead here. Could be looking at sub-$3m previews. 

 

 

Wonka T-4

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Showtimes - 33

Seats sold - 269

Seats available - 5765

New sales - 11 (+4.2%)

 

Comps

 

0.460x Marvels T-4 = $3.06m

0.525x HG BoSS T-4 = $3.02m

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Another Ali...

I agree. the skew is something unprecedented. That said its OD could hit mid to high teens. So could hit 100m domestic even with a very front loaded BO run. 

[MovieMan89]

Are there lots of black church communities doing organized Xmas day screenings for TCP? The skew just seems so weird, but something like that could explain it. 

[HummingLemon496]

TCP winning December in the US damn

[PrinceRico]

7 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

TCP winning December in the US damn

Wonka will win but TCP will definitely be 2

[babz06]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Are there lots of black church communities doing organized Xmas day screenings for TCP? The skew just seems so weird, but something like that could explain it. 

That could possibly be the reason as well as this:

 

https://www.thewrap.com/color-purple-tickets-gift-option-warner-bros/

[harrisonisdead]

48 minutes ago, babz06 said:

That could possibly be the reason as well as this:

 

https://www.thewrap.com/color-purple-tickets-gift-option-warner-bros/

Tbh I dunno if that'd move the needle at all. It seems like a bit of a silly system. It's just equivalent to buying a gift card except it can only be used towards one movie?

 

Also not sure why Mendelson is comparing it to Sound of Freedom when it's really not the same thing at all. Gifting movie tickets and gift cards to specific individuals has always been a thing, the novel part of SoF's system was that the pay-it-forward tickets were put in a pool that strangers could use. And this does feel like a movie that could have possibly benefitted from an actual Sound of Freedom-esque pay-it-forward system, had they implemented it.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/7/2023 at 10:04 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wonka (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	89	57	299	17055	1.75

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		235	41	78.6
MTC1:		178	32	59.53
Marcus:		38	14	12.71
Alamo:		44	10	14.72
Other chains:		39	1	13.04

 

Comps:

0.1x Barbie (THU): $2.19 Million

1.55x Wish (TUE): $2.79 Million

1.25x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.86 Million

0.42x Hunger Games: $2.39 Million

0.3x Indiana Jones: $2.14 Million

 

Average: $2.67 Million

 

Very bad pace these last few day no review effect I can see.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Wonka (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	89	67	366	17055	2.15

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		273	38	74.59
MTC1:		223	45	60.93
Marcus:		38	0	10.38
Alamo:		49	5	13.39
Other chains:		56	17	15.3

 

Comps:

0.09x Barbie (THU): $1.96 Million

1.41x Wish (TUE): $2.53 Million

2.86x Trolls Band Together: $3.72 Million

1.18x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.67 Million

0.35x Hunger Games: $2 Million

0.31x Indiana Jones: $2.2 Million

 

Average: $2.68 Million

 

Added Trolls as a comp, otherwise the average dropped compared to last update. To Key's point, if we compare it with the family fare (Haunted Mansion, Wish, Trolls), it's looking a lot better. We shall see what the final week looks like, I'll give daily updates from now on, but it needs to start doing a lot better in non-MTC1 chains.

Edited December 11, 2023 by abracadabra1998

[M37]

Y’all are going to force me write-up a full post on December multiplier math, aren’t you? 


 

 

 

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Y’all are going to force me write-up a full post on December multiplier math, aren’t you? 


 

 

 

 

I mean id gladly read it.

[ZeroHour]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Y’all are going to force me write-up a full post on December multiplier math, aren’t you? 


 

 

 

Don’t threaten us with a good time. 

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, Borobudur said:

The same can be said to Barbie but that quickly "forcing" these demo to come out after the movie become a cultural and meme juggernaut. Wonka being a non-action flick already capping its upper limit from the start and that is why the creativity of the marketing becoming more important but so far marketing has been "conventional", totally ignoring the meme effect onto Barbie.  Barbie proved that teen boys can come out for a female-led movie if that movie is eventful enough, especially if every gf dragging their bf to see the movie.

"Timothee Chalamet as a pre-chocolate factory Willy Wonka" was never going to generate the same level of intrigue as "Margot Robbie is Barbie" (but match-made-in-Heaven actor and iconic character pairings like that don't come around very often).

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Y’all are going to force me write-up a full post on December multiplier math, aren’t you? 


 

 

 

Yes please

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/7/2023 at 10:14 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	82	41	256	15086	1.7

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		220	28	85.94
MTC1:		159	23	62.11
Marcus:		41	8	16.02
Alamo:		21	4	8.2
Other chains:		35	6	13.67

 

Comps:

0.26x The Marvels: $1.74 Million

0.31x FNAF: $3.22 Million

0.44x MI7: $3.06 Million

0.19x Oppenheimer: $2.03 Million

0.33 Indiana Jones: $2.37 Million

 

Average: $2.48 Million

 

Migration (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	71	8	31	8791	0.35

 

Comp:

0.97x Trolls Band Together: $1.26 Million*

0.26x Wish: $475k*

*At small number sales, there is high variation when it comes to comps

 

Average: $875k

 

These are just bad updates all around, but there's one bright spot, wait for it...

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	82	27	283	15086	1.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		240	20	84.81
MTC1:		174	15	61.48
Marcus:		42	1	14.84
Alamo:		25	4	8.83
Other chains:		42	7	14.84

 

IP Blockbuster Comps:

0.66x Hunger Games: $3.78 Million

0.29x FNAF: $2.99 Million

0.42x MI7: $2.92 Million

0.34x Indiana Jones: $2.44 Million

 

 

Average: $3.03 Million

 

Superhero Comps:

0.27x The Marvels: $1.81 Million

2.26x Blue Beetle: $7.47 Million 

 

Decided to separate the two superhero comps from the rest, they're not great comps (MCU is not comparable, and Blue Beetle had a 16-day window, almost half of Aquaman).

 

Migration (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	71	20	51	8791	0.58

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		7	0	13.73
MTC1:		23	3	45.1
Marcus:		7	7	13.73
Alamo:		8	5	15.69
Other chains:		13	5	25.49

 

Comp:

1.02x Trolls Band Together: $1.33 Million

0.36x Wish (TUE): $650k

0.3x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $925k

 

Average: $970k

 

Because of Wish's discount Tuesday, I would put the actual average closer to $1-1.1 Million. 

 

[joselowe]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Are there lots of black church communities doing organized Xmas day screenings for TCP? The skew just seems so weird, but something like that could explain it. 

Yes a lot of churches and HBCU sororities are renting whole theaters