The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

Weekend sets are up at my local. I reported recently that Fighter is playing at my theatre, and how rare it is for Indian films to get played at this location. They're now showing Warning 2 this weekend, while Fighter is still holding its screen.

 

Jat had a tweet recently I believe where he said that 7% of the Canadian box office was from Indian films. It's really interesting to see this play out with showtimes and availability. Fighter has been the most popular show at my theatre this week.

 

Before 2023, Indian films used to release of 30 odd cineplex locs and 7-8 Landmark. Now its gone to nearly 90 in Cineplex and 10-15 Landmark. Soon they may start covering 125+ Cineplex.

[abracadabra1998]

On 1/29/2024 at 5:44 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	46	34	237	8615	2.75

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		186	32	78.48
MTC1:		172	18	72.57
Marcus:		7	0	2.95
Alamo:		30	7	12.66
Other chains:		28	9	11.81

 

Comps:

0.47x Napoleon: $1.41 Million

0.31x KOFM: $800k

0.81x The Creator: $1.1 Million

1.26x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $1.51 Million

1.94x Iron Claw: $1.3 Million

0.47x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.12 Million

0.79x Blue Beetle: $2.6 Million

 

Average: $1.55 Million

 

@M37's comment (which I really appreciated, by the way, always love to hear your thoughts and analysis. Always helpful!) re-shifted my thinking a bit around comps; I thought this would play older and more cinephile for some reason, so my blockbuster comps (MI7, Indy) were reflecting that. Switched them for two blockbuster comps that are more action-comedy and did play more casual/less pre-sale heavy in this market (DC is not big here I have noticed lol). Not that I think a DC blockbuster is necessarily a good comp, but it balances out a bit of the "high-browness" of the other comps mentioned above.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Argylle (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	67	65	302	11375	2.65

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		225	39	74.5
MTC1:		218	46	72.19
Marcus:		10	3	3.31
Alamo:		34	4	11.26
Other chains:		40	12	13.25

 

Comps:

0.5x Napoleon: $1.5 Million

0.34x KOFM: $890k

0.83x The Creator: $1.12 Million

1.34x Haunting in Venice (w/ EA): $1.6 Million

2x Iron Claw: $1.34 Million

0.51x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $2.31 Million

0.84x Blue Beetle: $2.78 Million

 

Average: $1.65 Million

 

Rose against all comps, good stuff.

 

[dallas]

Argylle

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-2

52 tickets sold (+6)

12 showtimes

 

(1.576x) of The Beekeeper - $3.78 Million

(0.268x) of Aquaman 2 - $1.21 Million

COMPS AVG - $2.5 Million

 

Wow, terrible day for Argylle. Was able to increase against the Aquaman comp but collapsed against Beekeeper. I was confident in $3M before but I'm going to lower my expectations to around $2.5M. 

[movies!movies!]

 

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, dallas said:

Argylle

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-2

52 tickets sold (+6)

12 showtimes

 

(1.576x) of The Beekeeper - $3.78 Million

(0.268x) of Aquaman 2 - $1.21 Million

COMPS AVG - $2.5 Million

 

Wow, terrible day for Argylle. Was able to increase against the Aquaman comp but collapsed against Beekeeper. I was confident in $3M before but I'm going to lower my expectations to around $2.5M. 

Yeah don't think 2.5 is too bad all things considered. The marketing has done this movie no favors. There be should a lot of reactions tonight. The press screening is going on right now and if the reactions are not good and the reviews tomorrow this thing is cooked.

[Derpity]

Dune 2 looks like a slightly better Oppenheimer right now in terms of daily pace. I realize Oppenheimer finished incredibly strong...is there any way to disentangle (even roughly) how much box office the Barbenheimer phenomenon added to Oppenheimer on the OW? Probably could sort of piece it together.

[keysersoze123]

Oppenheimer growth in its final day(most important day of presales) was disappointing. That was mainly bcos it was capacity constrained. I think Dune can finish better as there should no be no constraint for sure. That said Oppenheimer had really strong presales most of the run and that is very hard to match. 

[leoh]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer growth in its final day(most important day of presales) was disappointing. That was mainly bcos it was capacity constrained. I think Dune can finish better as there should no be no constraint for sure. That said Oppenheimer had really strong presales most of the run and that is very hard to match. 

Agree, at least considering AMC NY theaters pre sales as they right now, nothing suggests Dune could get even close to “Oppenheimer phenomenon”.

 

In AMC NY theaters it’s selling REALLY well for IMAX halls, but not impressive for conventional halls. This may suggest it’s still a niche film rather than pop phenomenon.

Edited January 31 by leoh

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oppenheimer growth in its final day(most important day of presales) was disappointing. That was mainly bcos it was capacity constrained. I think Dune can finish better as there should no be no constraint for sure. That said Oppenheimer had really strong presales most of the run and that is very hard to match. 

Dune will also face same issue though probably not as bad  as Oppy but Oppy also got a big push due to barbenheimer which wont happen here.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 18217/310062 348226.17 1534 shows  +2302

Friday - 16533/601675 300854.81 2920 shows +3063

 

Not much of an acceleration compared to yesterday. Let us see how rest of the week goes. Still think something close to 50K finish and 2.5m is possible unless its a stinker. Let us wait and see. 

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 21435/333467 407152.97 1675 shows +3217

Friday - 20571/651292 367211.93 3248 shows +4038

 

Meh acceleration. I hope reviews are out tomorrow and it sees some boost. Otherwise the finish will be ugly and its previews drop down close to low 2s and mid teens OW. 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 21435/333467 407152.97 1675 shows +3217

Friday - 20571/651292 367211.93 3248 shows +4038

 

Meh acceleration. I hope reviews are out tomorrow and it sees some boost. Otherwise the finish will be ugly and its previews drop down close to low 2s and mid teens OW. 

 

 

Last movies you really nailed it

Edited January 31 by leoh

[keysersoze123]

Just now, leoh said:

Hey, do You have this track for Madame web ?????

 

Last movies you really nailed it, and I would like to compare them with the NY numbers I have here.

I just posted it earlier today. It does not move that much at this point. 

[leoh]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I just posted it earlier today. It does not move that much at this point. 

Yeah I saw it but it was for Friday pre sales, I was trying to check the opening day / VDay numbers.

 

In AMC NY theaters it’s doing way better than I thought (before the pre sales I was like almost trashing it tbh lol), and you have nailed it recently, so I’m like quite curious to know if it’s a NY “phenomenon” or if it’s somewhat happening in your area as well (in some extent at least).

Edited January 31 by leoh

[misterpepp]

A week-long, PLF-exclusive re-release of the first part of Dune opens Feb 9. Tickets on sale Thursday

[Porthos]

On 1/29/2024 at 11:42 PM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-31 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23373	24729	1356	5.48%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

79

 

T-31 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-31	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	93.39		43	1452		0/171	22337/23789	6.10%		2915	46.52%		16.81m
BP2	27.93		237	4855		1/294	32167/37022	13.11%		16800	8.07%		7.82m
GOTG3	71.67		1892	1892		0/205	27676/29568	6.40%		10750	12.61%		12.54m
Fast X	202.39		9	670		0/182	27068/27738	2.42%		4122	32.90%		15.18m
Oppy	207.66		11	653		0/50	7001/7654	8.53%		10750	12.61%		21.80m
AM3	67.16		2019	2019		0/231	30346/32365	6.40%		10475	12.95%		11.75m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      381/8153  [4.67% sold]
Matinee:    19/2762  [0.69% | 1.40% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:       582/814  [71.50% sold] [+7 tickets]
Thr:    774/23915  [3.24% sold] [+72 tickets]
PLF:    1186/9813  [12.09% | 87.46% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I knew the comps would be pretty terrible when I shifted to T-x, but holy hell these are some unsuitable comps!  GOTG3 and AM3 (which I added simply for the lack of anything else) are both on their first days of sales, so they're gonna drop in a hurry.  And I'm about to jettison both the Fast X and Oppenheimer comps as their sales pace right now is so low that they're close to providing negative value, if they aren't already.

 

Anywho, doubt we'll get any casual use out of these comps for quite a while.  But I know if I didn't supply them, people would ask for them, so here they are.  Just don't, like, take them seriously.  At.  All. 🙂

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23319	24729	1410	5.70%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

54

 

T-30 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!

	%		Sold T-30	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	95.66		22	1474		0/171	22312/23786	6.20%		2915	48.37%		17.22m
BP2	28.11		161	5016		1/294	32006/37022	13.55%		16800	8.39%		7.87m
GOTG3	65.37		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		10750	13.12%		11.44m
Fast X	207.96		8	678		0/182	27060/27738	2.44%		4122	34.21%		15.60m
Indy 5	211.08		33	668		0/124	18859/19527	3.42%		4767	29.58%		15.20m
Oppy	210.13		18	671		0/51	7037/7708	8.71%		10750	13.12%		22.06m
AM3	50.34		782	2801		0/231	29564/32365	8.65%		10475	13.46%		8.81m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     390/8153  [4.78% sold]
Matinee:    19/2762  [0.69% | 1.35% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:    588/814  [72.24% sold] [+6 tickets]
Thr:    822/23915  [3.44% sold] [+48 tickets]
PLF:    1228/9813  [12.51% | 87.09% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Finally starting to slow down and enter the fallow period of the "u curve", as is to be expected.

 

Also, against my better judgement, added Indy 5 to the comp block.  What's the harm in adding one more terrible comp after all, right?

[JustLurking]

How's ATP for this expected to look relative to other blockbusters given the PLF are getting such a huge share of the sales?

[vafrow]

On 1/30/2024 at 6:41 AM, vafrow said:

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-16 (D1)

 

Previews

Total Sales: 18

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 2/2

Early Evening: 12/6

Late Evening: 4/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 10/5

IMAX: 8/7

VIP: 0/1

 

D1 Comps

0.818x Aquaman 2 for $3.7M

0.383 HG:BoSS for $2.2M

 

Given expectations and lack of any pre-existing knowledge of the character or linkage to any property anyone cares about, it's not too bad.

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-15 (D2)

 

Previews

Total Sales: 26

New Sales: 8

Growth: 44%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 17/6

Late Evening: 4/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 14/5

IMAX: 12/7

VIP: 0/1

 

D2 Comps

0.897x Aquaman 2 for $4.0M

0.342 HG:BoSS for $2.0M

 

Avg: $3.0M

 

Nothing too noteworthy. A modest growth for day 2. I did check the Friday sales, and it's at 50% of opening day. It points to similar risk of a front loaded stretch due to Valentine's Day.

 

[vafrow]

On 1/30/2024 at 6:33 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-31 Thursday previews and T-297 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 165

New Sales: 20

Growth: 13.8

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.7

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 129/9

Late Evening: 33/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 43/7

IMAX: 89/4

VIP: 31/4

4dx: 2/2

 

EA shows

 

313 tickets across 2 showings

 

Still nothing for comps

 

Showing good growth a few days in still. IMAX still grabbing the lions share of new sales.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-30 Thursday previews and T-26 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 170

New Sales: 5

Growth: 3.0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 10.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 3/2

Early Evening: 129/9

Late Evening: 38/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 43/7

IMAX: 94/4

VIP: 31/4

4dx: 2/2

 

EA shows

 

321 tickets across 2 showings

 

A couple of interesting things. First, one location has seemingly dropped their showtimes. I'm guessing it's a glitch, as that location had 17 sales across three showings. I've just kept the prior day sales in their for continuity until it presumably gets restored.

 

But growth just dropped off completely. Only one block of tickets sold since yesterday for previews, and a handful for the EA. Not sure if it's just a bad day, or sign that die hards have gotten their tickets, and things will be pretty quiet until promotion picks up.

[vafrow]

10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Before 2023, Indian films used to release of 30 odd cineplex locs and 7-8 Landmark. Now its gone to nearly 90 in Cineplex and 10-15 Landmark. Soon they may start covering 125+ Cineplex.

 

This is what I've found fascinating. My area has a large south Asian population, but it's between two other larger theatres that have always shown a lot more international films, particularly Indian films. In general, the smaller theatres would only get the bigger releases, and only the Hollywood releases. Demand and lack of support from Hollywood studios have changed that.

 

I'll be curious to see what happens during the more crowded periods. These films are performing well. It might be harder for studios to grab as many screens as they anticipate in the future.

[DAJK]

Seriously, I just really hope Argylle does well enough for Apple to justify putting more of their films in theaters. Movies like this flopping will just make streamers forego theatrical releases, which is bad for all of us.