The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 99792/633512 1894981.98 3419 shows +13388 

Friday - 116242/968402 2176469.22 5141 shows +18213

Saturday - 121411/994658 2174075.71 5272 shows +18570

 

While the increase seem outrageous, its under 40% from Thu+Sunday numbers from yesterday. But as @M37 said 1 day does not make a trend and so let us see how tomorrow goes. But I stick to my prediction made earlier today/ 

The increases are outrageous.

 

Yeah one may discount Thu jump by clubbing THU+EA but there's no excuse for FRI and SAT. 

 

On one side its great to have big opening but for the predictor side its always frustrating to see a late surge when the run prior is not suggesting any such. Hopefully this is one off and it drops tomorrow 😈 but I won't be too hopeful of that.

[HummingLemon496]

20 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

It's an animated film releasing during Spring Break after a dearth of kids-targeted films. It shouldn't have any trouble crossing $100 milllion DOM given the lack of competition.

Hopefully it doesn't have toxic WOM

[titanic2187]

So dune is really setting to become the next Oscar blockbuster like barbieheimer, TGM and avatar. Glad they continue to have a non-superhero blockbuster to include in the best picture line-up. 

[emoviefan]

So there are going to be a lot of empty Dolby theaters showing Panda next weekend when they could of stuck with Dune. Smart move. 

[leoh]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Nah, $80M is easy-sause . It's aiming for $12M previews and an $84M opening weekend, similar to Logan (2017)

You very optimistic lol

 

 

[Liiviig 1998]

John wick 4 opening is where I will place my flag for now.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/24/2024 at 1:12 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-6 Days

 

Thursday - 3289/56171 (217 showings)

 

Comps

1.06x Oppy - $11.1M

0.47x Avatar 2 - $8M

Dune 2 MiniTC2 T-3 Days

 

Thursday - 4573/56913 (222 showings)

 

Comps

0.99x Oppy - $10.4M

0.50x Avatar 2 - $8.5M

 

Oppy comp stopped bleeding with pace reaching quite similar after being around 75% last week. Even Avatar 2 hit 65% mark after being in 30s for some time.

Edited February 27 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

On 2/24/2024 at 1:06 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-13 Days

 

Previews - 171/31196 (145 showings)
 

Comps

1.90x Elemental - $4.5M

2.22x Trolls 3 - $2.9M

0.34x Minions 2 - $3.7M

Kung Fu Panda 4 MiniTC2 T-10 Days

 

Previews - 208/31414 (147 showings

 

Comps

1.90x Elemental - $4.5M

2.31x Trolls 3 - $3M

0.30x Minions 2 - $3.2M

[Porthos]

On 2/26/2024 at 12:20 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	186	22983	26551	3568	13.44%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	154
Total Seats Sold Today	261

 

T-4 Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	59.26		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	30.35%		14.47m
Thor 4	37.33		590	9559		0/251	24142/33701	28.36%		16962	21.04%		10.82m
BP2	35.21		618	10134		2/308	27930/38064	26.62%		16800	21.24%		9.86m
AM3	53.95		303	6614		0/251	27082/33696	19.63%		10475	34.06%		9.44m
GOTG3	68.44		265	5213		0/226	26601/31814	16.39%		10750	33.19%		11.98m
Dune	267.47		130	1334		0/79	10936/12270	10.87%		2915	122.40%		13.64m
TGM	50.04		476	7130		0/271	30179/37309	19.11%		11474	31.10%		9.64m
JWD	67.73		649	5268		0/224	22664/27932	18.86%		10966	32.54%		12.19m
Ava 2	70.04		408	5094		0/204	22706/27800	18.32%		8986	39.71%		11.91m
Wick 4	172.87		166	2064		0/118	14480/16544	12.48%		5448	65.49%		15.39m
Fast X	218.23		74	1635		0/179	26509/28144	5.81%		4122	86.56%		16.37m
TLM	132.30		124	2697		0/175	22324/25021	10.78%		6561	54.38%		13.63m
Indy 5	175.16		162	2037		0/134	18676/20713	9.83%		4767	74.85%		12.61m
Oppy	162.11		130	2201		0/77	8355/10556	20.85%		4621	77.21%		17.02m
Bats Tue EA T-0	106.19		28	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:       978/8006  [12.22% sold]
Matinee:    121/2840  [4.26% | 3.39% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:                789/814  [96.93% sold] [+39 tickets] [FINAL]
Thr:          2779/25737 [10.80% sold] [+222 tickets]
PLF:          2714/10865 [24.98% | 76.07% of all tickets sold]

Thr PLF:   1988/10051 [19.78% sold | 71.54% of Thr Tickets sold]

======

 

Solid enough of a Sat/Sun jump for pure Thr tickets, I think (160 -> 222).  The EA makes it truly hard to judge though.  What I can say is that the EA shows were sellouts in all but name only.  Just a handful of wheelchair/assist seats and like, two to six regular seats per theater. 

 

Will WOM spread from that?  Find out soon enough.

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	227	25372	29386	4014	13.66%

 

Total Showings Added Today	41
Total Seats Added Today	2835
Total Seats Sold Today	446

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Batman	59.30		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	34.14%		14.48m
Thor 4	39.71		550	10109		0/251	23592/33701	30.00%		16962	23.66%		11.52m
BP2	36.33		914	11048		2/355	30945/41993	26.31%		16800	23.89%		10.17m
AM3	56.63		474	7088		0/269	28018/35106	20.19%		10475	38.32%		9.91m
GOTG3	63.65		587	6306		0/273	29558/35864	17.58%		10750	37.34%		11.14m
Dune	266.36		173	1507		0/92	11672/13179	11.43%		2915	137.70%		13.58m
TGM	51.77		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	34.98%		9.97m
JWD	66.20		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	36.60%		11.92m
Ava 2	72.36		453	5547		0/277	27377/32924	16.85%		8986	44.67%		12.30m
Wick 4	151.64		342	2647		0/152	16697/19344	13.68%		5448	73.68%		13.50m
Fast X	195.23		262	2056		0/228	30813/32869	6.26%		4122	97.38%		14.64m
TLM	113.49		482	3537		0/201	24221/27758	12.74%		6561	61.18%		11.69m
Indy 5	158.97		258	2525		0/158	21009/23534	10.73%		4767	84.20%		11.45m
Oppy	142.80		351	2811		0/78	7745/10556	26.63%		4621	86.86%		14.99m
Bats Tue EA	106.19		——	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:           1053/8566  [12.29% sold]
Matinee:          133/3147  [4.23% | 3.31% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:               789/814  [96.93% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:         3225/28572 [11.29% sold] [+446 tickets]
PLF:         2915/10865 [26.83% | 72.62% of all tickets sold]

Thr PLF:   2126/10051 [21.15% sold | 65.92% of Thr Tickets sold]

 

=====

 

No time for deep analysis, but I will note that the Thr PLF percentage dropped a hefty amount, as nearly 70% of the tickets bought today weren't for some sort of PLF/DBOX.  Still a honking huge percentage of PLFs in total, but might have some early signs that the GA is in fact interested in shelling out for regular seats.

 

(don't get me wrong, still a yuuuuge PLF percentage.  But it's no longer insanely huge ‚ which really should be expected to some degree)

((no time for other thoughts, maybe tomorrow, maybe not))

Edited February 27 by Porthos

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-4 Thursday previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 810

New Sales: 98

Growth: 13.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 18.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 23/11

Early Evening: 556/21

Late Evening: 231/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 202/8

IMAX: 389/4

VIP: 185/12

Regular: 17/21

4dx: 17/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.561of Marvels for $10.3M

2.765 of HG: BoSS for $15.9M

 

Best growth day outside the first week. Not particularly close either. The Marvels comp now firmly above $10M.

 

I'm guessing getting past the EA shows means the previews are grabbing more of the demand. Although, it's worth noting that the breakdown of sales is starting to tilt away from being IMAX focused, and some of the recently added showtimes are grabbing some sales, so there's less fully empty showings.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-3 Thursday previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 932

New Sales: 122

Growth: 15%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 21.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 34/11

Early Evening: 623/21

Late Evening: 275/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 216/8

IMAX: 455/4

VIP: 208/12

Regular: 36/21

4dx: 17/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.632 of Marvels for $10.8M

2.765 of HG: BoSS for $16.4M

 

Strong day. Both comps went up, but, refer to my post from yesterday regarding some theories that my theatre sample likely oversamples IMAX screens, which is leading to an overindex when comparing with films that didn't have a big IMAX component. Still, word of mouth is doing it's job.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-11 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 56

New Sales: 2

Growth: 4%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.0

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 29/5

Late Evening: 13/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 41/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

2.154x Wonka for $7.5M

 

We seem to be in a slow stretch. But this is still doing pretty well for what it ism

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-10 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 65

New Sales: 9

Growth: 16%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 11/2

Early Evening: 31/5

Late Evening: 20/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 50/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 9/1

 

Comps

1.806x Wonka for $6.3M

 

Again, not much to report. New showtimes go up today. It'll be interesting to see theatre allocation as tje region heads into spring break.

[TheFlatLannister]

5 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

So dune is really setting to become the next Oscar blockbuster like barbieheimer, TGM and avatar. Glad they continue to have a non-superhero blockbuster to include in the best picture line-up. 

Let’s slow down when throwing words around like blockbuster. We need to control expectations so when it doesn’t hit some crazy number we aren’t disappointed. 

[dallas]

3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Let’s slow down when throwing words around like blockbuster. We need to control expectations so when it doesn’t hit some crazy number we aren’t disappointed. 

But... it is a blockbuster. 

[dallas]

5 hours ago, leoh said:

You very optimistic lol

 

 

I don't see how $80M is optimistic. Its a very likely target corroborated by data from multiple trackers here. 

[M37]

On 2/23/2024 at 9:25 AM, M37 said:

Dune Part 2 T-7 Thursday Preview Comps

Despite the Oppy comps sliding down all week (shocker!), the overall average still remains near $12M. Even if the few, higher end clear outliers are removed, its still would be over $11M, though I'm skeptical that holds. My overall impression is that this is difficult film to comp, not just in matching pace, but in terms of audience composition and market skew. Really wish we had at least one more mid-tier sample (like OK or the Jax/Ral/Pho), but without that think the straight average is overstating the expected result

 

For the Forecast Matrix, after delving into the data, did wiggle the values a little bit, slightly higher on Thursday and lower on the IM, but the result/range is the same.

 

Dune II T-7 Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.25	$9.50	$9.75	$10.00	$10.25	$10.50	$10.75	$11.00	$11.25
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	7.20	$66.6	$68.4	$70.2	$72.0	$73.8	$75.6	$77.4	$79.2	$81.0
	7.35	$68.0	$69.8	$71.7	$73.5	$75.3	$77.2	$79.0	$80.9	$82.7
	7.50	$69.4	$71.3	$73.1	$75.0	$76.9	$78.8	$80.6	$82.5	$84.4
	7.65	$70.8	$72.7	$74.6	$76.5	$78.4	$80.3	$82.2	$84.2	$86.1
	7.80	$72.2	$74.1	$76.1	$78.0	$80.0	$81.9	$83.9	$85.8	$87.8
	7.95	$73.5	$75.5	$77.5	$79.5	$81.5	$83.5	$85.5	$87.5	$89.4
	8.10	$74.9	$77.0	$79.0	$81.0	$83.0	$85.1	$87.1	$89.1	$91.1
	8.25	$76.3	$78.4	$80.4	$82.5	$84.6	$86.6	$88.7	$90.8	$92.8
	8.40	$77.7	$79.8	$81.9	$84.0	$86.1	$88.2	$90.3	$92.4	$94.5

Note: values above do not include EA shows, expected to be ~$2M

 

Funny enough, after spending a few weeks trying to pump the breaks, am now easing off and thinking $10M+ Thursday and $80M+ weekend are both more likely than not. Expecting a ~180K finish for MTC1 and ~5500 tix for Sacto, both of which would point to slightly below $10M, but with the nuance of EA and atypical market skew, larger than normal error bars there

 

Interestingly, am more confident on the IM than the final preview value, as the more adult skewing tentpoles - Batman, TGM, Avatar 2 & Oppy - all had nearly identical weekend patterns, after adjusting for holiday/summer effects, and the weekend sales data are in a very similar range. Think one starts with Batman's ~7.75x (after removing EA), and shifts a bit from there, with 8x+ in play, but IMO more likely to come in just below.

 

$80M OW seems to be the target number, give or take depending on one's interpretation of the data

Dune Part 2 T-3 Thursday Preview Comps

On Monday, the recent slide not only stopped, but reversed a bit.

Note: Thursday only comps unless noted; average includes additional data points not shown on chart

 

Average is floating around $11M, but that may overstated, as it includes a few comps with EA, as well as Avatar and its 3D-inflated ATP. Target right now me looks like ~$10.5M for Thursday

 

However, despite the solid sales day [which as I noted above might be a defacto review bump with WOM from EA shows] perhaps the most relevant data points for Monday might be those from previously hibernating trackers Katniss and Rehpyc, giving us a view of both a non-cinephile mid-level markets (Jax/Ral/Pho), and the more GA friendly MTC3.  Most of those comps are sub-$10M, which only reinforces my belief that the demand for Dune II is going to be lacking depth, beyond the big cities and PLF screens.

 

tl;dr - I don't usually update the Forecast Matrix after T-7, but if given the opportunity with the new data over the last few days, would not shift the midpoints of the values, though at this time do believe over $80M is more likely than not, if only slightly

[M37]

33 minutes ago, dallas said:

But... it is a blockbuster. 

Do you consider Wonka or Venom 2 to be Blockbusters? Because that’s about the domestic total Dune II is on track to have

 

Personally, would reserve the “blockbuster” designation for the few $300M+ plus titles each year, and as of now, between preview tracking and expected IM and March legs, getting to that level would take a significant outlier result 

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The increases are outrageous.

 

Yeah one may discount Thu jump by clubbing THU+EA but there's no excuse for FRI and SAT. 

 

On one side its great to have big opening but for the predictor side its always frustrating to see a late surge when the run prior is not suggesting any such. Hopefully this is one off and it drops tomorrow 😈 but I won't be too hopeful of that.

 

I've been pointing out all the reasons you couldn't just go with numbers from before, b/c none of the numbers from before, the circumstances of release, or even the historical 1st in the series would be a good comp for varied reasons (Covid, PLF availability, seat availability, competition and movie viewing into the open, etc).

 

Some things need a little heart to predict and not just the brain number patterns:).

 

Hopefully, Shawn finally puts my OW in his range this week:).  I mean, I've pushed him from that early $50M floor...I just have a little more ways to go...

 

Edit to add:

 

Final sets at my 2 Cinemarks...

 

18 showings (6 PLF/12 reg)

20 showings (all reg)

 

So, 4.5 and 5 screens at the 14 and 12.  So, definitely enough for a 3 digit open to be possible.  Not quite a Dr Strange 2-like clear out (nothing has matched that lately), but definitely bigger than Oppy got for OW (albeit smaller than Barbie for showings b/c of show length - same number of Barbie screens)...

Edited February 27 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

Let’s not overreact to one good day. I don’t have time to chart it, but all that really happened is that Dune II went from  being on the lower end of lower growth rate comp grouping (Batman, TGM, Avatar, etc) to now being in the middle of that pack; not outracing them all, moving into a whole different grouping 

 

And given that it happened on the day after EA shows, not really accelerating over the whole weekend, to me makes it more likely to be somewhat of an aberration than a new trendline. But we’ll see 

[JustWatching]

Sales at my local no-PLFs cinemark have jumped from 30 for FSS (including previews) two days ago to 61 as of this a.m., so that’s a positive sign. Sales at the Emagine still heavily weighted to PLF shows. Standard show gaining a bit but PLFs even more.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, dallas said:

But... it is a blockbuster. 

Yeah but nowhere near Avatar, TGM or Barbenheimer level