The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

20 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Yes, it should be a comp, but it's on the upper end of scenarios.

 

It was also June, which had more kids off (although Easter weekend is a good equalizer). It's just a comp that has to be used with caution because it was a really late growth curve.

 

exactly, we have to be really optimistic to expect summer walk ups to a March release. 

 

Talking about NY AMC theaters, nothing suggests GxB can get anywhere close to a 60M OW.

 

GxK did well within first 3/4 hours of sales but didn’t keep up the pace. Too early to take any conclusion of course but I’d say it seems it will open with a BO similar to the OW of 2021 and 2019 monster-verse movies. 

Edited March 13 by leoh

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

 

Weekend Box Office Forecast (Box Office Pro): ARTHUR THE KING Opens Following KUNG FU PANDA 4 and DUNE: PART TWO Breakouts

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-arthur-the-king-opens-following-kung-fu-panda-4-and-dune-part-two-breakouts/

 

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 17	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Kung Fu Panda 4	Universal Pictures	$32,900,000	$109,200,000	-43%
Dune: Part Two	Warner Bros. Pictures	$29,700,000	$205,400,000	-36%
Arthur the King	Lionsgate	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW
Imaginary	Lionsgate	$5,400,000	$18,800,000	-46%
Cabrini	Angel Studios	$4,000,000	$14,100,000	-44%

[ChiefBrody]

14 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

exactly, we have to be really optimistic to expect summer walk ups to a March release. 

 

Talking about NY AMC theaters, nothing suggests GxB can get anywhere close to a 60M OW.

 

GxK did well within first 3/4 hours of sales but didn’t keep up the pace. Too early to take any conclusion of course but I’d say it seems it will open with a BO similar to the OW of 2021 and 2019 monster-verse movies. 

WTF is your problem? Anytime someone posts good things about this movie you instantly come on and try to dismiss it like you’ve got some personal grudge

[leoh]

11 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

Weekend Box Office Forecast (Box Office Pro): ARTHUR THE KING Opens Following KUNG FU PANDA 4 and DUNE: PART TWO Breakouts

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-arthur-the-king-opens-following-kung-fu-panda-4-and-dune-part-two-breakouts/

 

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 17	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Kung Fu Panda 4	Universal Pictures	$32,900,000	$109,200,000	-43%
Dune: Part Two	Warner Bros. Pictures	$29,700,000	$205,400,000	-36%
Arthur the King	Lionsgate	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW
Imaginary	Lionsgate	$5,400,000	$18,800,000	-46%
Cabrini	Angel Studios	$4,000,000	$14,100,000	-44%

12 million for Arthur the King? It’s  a bit surprising (in a good way), but it makes sense given that there’s no major movie opening this week.

Edited March 13 by leoh

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

T:ROTB was extremely walk up heavy. It's a possible outcome, but it's probably on the optimistic end.

Just given the fact that Friday is a holiday, this boosting both Friday and Thursday night numbers, is enough to make me believe it could match T:ROTB opening. Walk up friendly movies on holidays do quite well.

 

[Minnale101]

37 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

 

Weekend Box Office Forecast (Box Office Pro): ARTHUR THE KING Opens Following KUNG FU PANDA 4 and DUNE: PART TWO Breakouts

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-arthur-the-king-opens-following-kung-fu-panda-4-and-dune-part-two-breakouts/

 

 

Film	Studio	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, March 17	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Kung Fu Panda 4	Universal Pictures	$32,900,000	$109,200,000	-43%
Dune: Part Two	Warner Bros. Pictures	$29,700,000	$205,400,000	-36%
Arthur the King	Lionsgate	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW
Imaginary	Lionsgate	$5,400,000	$18,800,000	-46%
Cabrini	Angel Studios	$4,000,000	$14,100,000	-44%

For most of the pre sales time it look like kfp4 was gonna do 30-35 million ow

 

to do 32 million in second weekend, it’s awesome to me

[Tower]

35 minutes ago, ChiefBrody said:

WTF is your problem? Anytime someone posts good things about this movie you instantly come on and try to dismiss it like you’ve got some personal grudge

That's just Leoh's posting style, and not just for Godzilla. He likes to repeat his opinions about 30 times for each movie, whether he thinks it will do well or not. He was high on KFP4 (which worked out) and Madame web (LOL) and Ghostbusters, but low on Dune (wrong) and now Godzilla.

If it bothers you, you should just put him on ignore.

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

Can’t be bothered to count but it seems like GxK is doing far better numbers around me than Ghostbusters on Day 1. Similar to Dune. Could be a good sign.

[leoh]

The Fall Guy debuts with 94% on RT!

 

Universal already lifted the review embargo (two months away from the release date!)

 

We can safely say WoM for The Fall Guy will be insane: Great critics reception + Ryan Gosling is the most beloved star in Hollywood right now.

The Fall Guy keeps selling well in AMC NY theaters (considering we’re almost two months away from its release).

 

 

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_fall_guy_2024

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 13 by leoh

[Porthos]

GxK has already passed the first day of sales of THG:BOSS locally, fwiw.

 

(okay, by five seats, but still...)

 

Now I know there's real debate about using that as even a yardstick, but they both opened up at T-15, so it might say something, if not a lot.

[M37]

On the GxK & TROtB comp 

 

I tend to agree it will be useful, but more as a top end target. The Transformers franchise has eroded its fan base far more than Godzilla (just reignited by G-1), and was selling during the Mermaid, ATSV and Flash period, which all took up a lot of attention (and A-list limits), plus had PLF / EA which to pull some sales away from Thursday 

 

Personally, I like Black Adam more (for those that have it), maybe Fast X (but way long sales period), or something along those lines, with a bigger level of early/fan sales, but still mostly a walk-up title 

[vafrow]

In my region GxK is performing well. It's exceeded Aquaman 2 (which opened T-14 or so). It's not just ahead of Ghostbusters at D1, but already caught up with it's T-15. I'm guessing that it'll actually be ahead of Ghostbusters in raw sales tomorrow.

 

I'll aim to do an update in the morning. Standard caveat of not having great comps, but I'm guessing this will be in line with wjat others are seeing.

[leoh]

29 minutes ago, M37 said:

On the GxK & TROtB comp 

 

I tend to agree it will be useful, but more as a top end target. The Transformers franchise has eroded its fan base far more than Godzilla (just reignited by G-1), and was selling during the Mermaid, ATSV and Flash period, which all took up a lot of attention (and A-list limits), plus had PLF / EA which to pull some sales away from Thursday 

 

Personally, I like Black Adam more (for those that have it), maybe Fast X (but way long sales period), or something along those lines, with a bigger level of early/fan sales, but still mostly a walk-up title 

agreed.

 

monster-verse is more of an international thing, at least it has been since 2019. And tbh I think it’ll carry on being like that. For example, looking at @vafrow report on Canada box office, it seems to be doing much better there than in the US (considering his comparison with GB).

Edited March 13 by leoh

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

On the GxK & TROtB comp 

 

I tend to agree it will be useful, but more as a top end target. The Transformers franchise has eroded its fan base far more than Godzilla (just reignited by G-1), and was selling during the Mermaid, ATSV and Flash period, which all took up a lot of attention (and A-list limits), plus had PLF / EA which to pull some sales away from Thursday 

 

Personally, I like Black Adam more (for those that have it), maybe Fast X (but way long sales period), or something along those lines, with a bigger level of early/fan sales, but still mostly a walk-up title 

 

Largely agree with Black Adam, especially after a few days for pre-window length differences to smooth out.  Gonna be one of the comps I use.  The other problem with RotB is that it that had two full more weeks of sales.

 

Still, might equalize enough by, oh say T-9 or T-8.  But first couple of days will be rough, unless one is doing a straight D1/D2 comp against the two.  And even there the difference between a T-28 D2 and a T-14 D2 might be hinted at in the data.

 

(FWIW, I came to RotB tracking late and only have numbers starting at T-14)

 

===

 

Speaking more generally, outside of Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, last year didn't see many short pre-sale windows.  For things I kept record for, isn't until allll the way back to John Wick 4 that I have something as short as T-22.  We of course do have GBFE this year (T-21), but that won't be an actual comp until the last week of pre-sales.

 

But aside from that, not much better once we go into 2022 as we gots Ava 2 (T-24) (lol), Black Adam (T-21),  Thor 4 (T-24) (lol lol lol), Minions 2 (T-24) (loooooool) and TGM (T-23) (lol lol)

 

Last year was just the Year of Inexplicably Long Pre-Sale Windows for whatever reason.

[keysersoze123]

BTW there is no comp between Ghostbusters and Zilla. Zilla in 2-3 days will overtake the then current Ghostbusters tickets sold. That movie is tracking 4-5m range while Zilla should be targeting 8m+ previews. I think movies listed above by @M37 and @Porthos make sense. To me raw data itself will tell the tale. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/12/2024 at 4:09 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Arthur the King (T-2):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	60	7	47	6039	0.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		28	2	59.57
Marcus:		11	5	23.4
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		8	0	17.02

 

Comps:

Ordinary Angels: Missed

0.38x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $210k

0.23x Haunting in Venice: $255k

0.14x Boys on the Boat: $235k

 

Average: $235k

 

Just terrible.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Arthur the King (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	60	29	76	6039	1.26

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		42	14	55.26
Marcus:		15	4	19.74
Alamo:		4	4	5.26
Other chains:		15	7	19.74

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	61.7
3-Day:	181.48

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses)

1.33x Ordinary Angels: $380k (NA, 111%)

0.51x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $300k (20%, 85%)

0.32x Haunting in Venice: $350k (18%, 90%)

0.14x Boys on the Boat: $250k (54%, NA)

 

Average: $320k

 

Very good final day, perhaps a sign of good things to come! Way better growth rates than all of my other comps (of course that is easy to do starting from such a low point). I am still eyeing Ordinary Angels as the most useful comp, since BotB was Sunday previews and the others are sequels/IP; put together with the great growth rates and my opinion that this will likely underindex here, I'll go with $500k, +/-100 as a final prediction.

[Unfitclock]

@abracadabra1998 I feel like dog would be a better comp to use

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/10/2024 at 1:55 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

American Society of Magical... (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 7 theaters	14	17	17	1026	1.66

 

Comps:

0.27x Drive-Away Dolls: $95k

1.42x Book of Clarence: $405k

0.16x Iron Claw: $110k

 

Thought this was gonna be in a lot more theaters, I'll keep tracking it but probably won't post more updates between now and T-1... feels like a waste

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

American Society of Magical... (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	24	3	37	1699	2.18

 

Comps:

0.31x Drive-Away Dolls: $110k

1.16x Book of Clarence: $330k

0.21x Iron Claw: $140k

0.23x Ferrari: $100k

 

Even as I think this is underindexing here (hence my inclusion of Book of Clarence for reference), still dreadful. Let's go with $200k, +/- 50 as a final prediction. Usual warning that with lower sales comes way higher degree of error though.

 

P.S. Not tracking it, but Love Lies Bleeding sales look really solid just from a cursory glance here!

[abracadabra1998]

4 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@abracadabra1998 I feel like dog would be a better comp to use

 

I most certainly agree, but I sadly don't have it  katniss has better comps for this flick for sure.

[M37]

Fwiw, I’m expecting a double digit IM for Arthur. Probably not on KFP4/Ticket to Paradise level (16x) but pulling in both families and older adults should lead to high Fri/Thur ratio. Dog is tricky as a straight comp because of both EA shows and holiday weekend 

 

Maybe $600-$700K and 12-15x, which probably doesn’t get to BOP’s $12M, but double digits in play