The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

I'd like to get on the Fly Me to the Moon hype train but I'm really not seeing it here. Still zero Friday or Saturday sales in Canton

There is even a hype train? The marketing has been muted. I totally see this becoming the lowest grossing big budget romantic comedy adventure movie compared to the like of Jungle cruise, TLC and recent fall guys. 

[AniNate]

Longlegs first preview show is almost at capacity, though weekend sales are still fairly sparse (at least there are a few though)

[justnumbers]

Fly Me To The Moon feels like a movie that maybe does 15M-20M Opening.

 

But...I will have to agree that marketing feels very non existing. It's also wild I haven't seen the trailer for this in theaters when they were bombarding me with The Bikeriders trailer.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, JonathanMB said:

 

How is it comparing to MaXXXine? Despite being an original I worry a little about it having similarly frontloaded sales due to the cinephile appeal.

 

I did attend a Fly Me to the Moon preview on Friday that was over half full, and the movie went over quite well. Still not sure the marketing has been strong enough yet for a good opening, but hopefully legs are decent at least. I had a lot of issues with the movie itself, but it's a fun throwback-y time.

Maxxxine had a different release schedule and I think more niche than longlegs. I am sure longlegs would open bigger than that for sure. 

[keysersoze123]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27176	33607	6431	19.14%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

123

 

T-19 Comp

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	67.99		193	9459		0/329	31449/40908	23.12%		21117	30.45%		24.48m
L&T	113.22		155	5680		0/228	25920/31600	17.97%		16962	37.91%		32.83m
BP2	101.85		102	6314		1/294	30708/37022	17.05%		16800	38.28%		28.52m
AM3	154.15		41	4172		0/235	28384/32556	12.81%		10475	61.39%		26.98m
GOTG3	196.67		87	3270		0/206	26377/29647	11.03%		10750	59.82%		34.42m
Bats	189.59		157	3392		0/248	28906/32298	10.50%		11757	54.70%		40.95m
Dune 2	340.63		39	1888		0/171	22828/24716	7.64%		6001	107.17%		40.88m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1454/12916  [11.26% sold]
Matinee:    405/4466  [9.07% | 6.30% of all tickets sold]
3D:             720/6790  [10.60% | 11.20% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3192/11526  [27.69% | 49.63% of all tickets sold]
———    
DP3 sold       97 seats today at same sources of tracking I had for Captain Marvel
DP3 sold     117 seats today at the same sources of tracking I had for TROS

 

***EXTREMELY AND EXCEEDINGLY UNOFFICIAL COMP***    
DP3 = 1.63489x Captain Marvel at the same sources of tracking at T-19 [39.83m] [ATP adj'ed by 118%]

its definitely accelerating. I am expecting 8K by next sunday(T-11). somewhere in 9500+ by T-7 and finish close to 18K. 

[Tinalera]

Twisters 

Wed July 17 (Advanced Screening) Thurs July 18 Fri July 19 )T-12)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Wed	3	4	23	1047	1070	0.02149
	Thurs	4	15	41	4110	4151	0.00987
	Fri	4	20	71	5394	5465	0.01299
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Wed	3	3	35	485	520	0.067307
	Thurs	3	15	32	3233	3265	0.00980
	Fri	3	20	59	2235	2294	0.02571

 

 

Yea I know what I said...just...here you go.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/6/2024 at 11:03 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fly Me to the Moon	T-5	Jax	5	17	2	11	1,232	0.89%
		Phx	7	22	0	10	1,776	0.56%
		Ral	8	23	3	21	2,281	0.92%
	Total		20	62	5	42	5,289	0.79%
Fly Me to the Moon (EA)	T-0	Jax	4	8	176	229	775	29.55%
		Phx	5	10	137	170	842	20.19%
		Ral	4	8	188	228	712	32.02%
	Total		13	26	501	627	2,329	26.92%
Longlegs	T-5	Jax	4	7	8	81	473	17.12%
		Phx	6	11	14	103	687	14.99%
		Ral	4	9	21	74	631	11.73%
	Total		14	27	43	258	1,791	14.41%
Twisters	T-12	Jax	5	57	5	91	9,841	0.92%
		Phx	6	31	4	102	6,447	1.58%
		Ral	8	44	2	110	6,280	1.75%
	Total		19	132	11	303	22,568	1.34%
Twisters (EA)	T-11	Jax	5	10	103	142	2,186	6.50%
		Phx	1	2	0	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	7	34	412	8.25%
	Total		8	14	110	193	3,216	6.00%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (EA Total) T-0 adjusted comps

 - Lost City (EA Total) - 2.44x (1.87m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .335x (1.29m)

 - Black Phone (EA Total) - 4.1x (1.68m)

 - Ungentlemanly (EA) - 1.351x (811k)

 

Should easily get to 1m and I could see upwards of 1.5m with shows being on the weekend. 

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-5 adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 1.235x (1.18m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .764x (1.64m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .764x (862k)

 - Joy Ride - .933x (974k)

 - Massive Talent - missed

 - Lost City - .197x (505k)

 - Ungentlemanly - .875x (744k)

 

Longlegs T-5 adjusted comps

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 - Black Phone (Total) - .98x (3.02m)

 - Strangers - 2.97x (2.99m)

 - Watchers - 4.96x (4.17m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.856x (2.26m)

 - Haunting of Venice (Total) - 2.064x (2.03m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.32m

 

Twisters (Total) T-12 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.97x (9.36m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .994x (8.96m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.234x (8.14m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.363x (6m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .607x (5.34m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.93m

 

Found a few more PLF early shows listed on the normal listing for Wednesday that bumped EA up a good amount.  I don't love these comps, but I don't know what would be much better.  Godzilla x Kong is the closest in terms of total tickets sold across all movies I've tracked.  Looking at overall movies in this range I'd say this is headed for somewhere between 5.5m and 6.5m, but there's still a couple weeks left to move that up or down.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fly Me to the Moon	T-4	Jax	5	17	11	22	1,232	1.79%
		Phx	7	22	1	11	1,776	0.62%
		Ral	8	23	11	32	2,281	1.40%
	Total		20	62	23	65	5,289	1.23%
Longlegs	T-4	Jax	4	7	13	94	473	19.87%
		Phx	6	11	8	111	687	16.16%
		Ral	5	11	16	90	763	11.80%
	Total		15	29	37	295	1,923	15.34%
Twisters	T-11	Jax	5	57	15	106	9,841	1.08%
		Phx	6	31	3	105	6,447	1.63%
		Ral	8	44	0	110	6,280	1.75%
	Total		19	132	18	321	22,568	1.42%
Twisters (EA)	T-10	Jax	5	10	2	144	2,186	6.59%
		Phx	1	2	0	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	4	38	412	9.22%
	Total		8	14	6	199	3,216	6.19%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-4 adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 1.625x (1.56m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .985x (2.11m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - missed

 - Joy Ride - 1.327x (1.38m)

 - Massive Talent - missed

 - Lost City - .271x (693k)

 - Ungentlemanly - 1.226x (1.04m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .319x (866k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.32m

 

Longlegs T-4 adjusted comps

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 - Strangers - missed

 - Watchers - 4.76x (4m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.03x (2.48m)

 - Haunting of Venice (Total) - 1.928x (1.9m)

 - Crawdads (Total) - .778x (1.83m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.82m

 

Twisters (Total) T-11 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - missed

 - Godzilla x Kong - .932x (8.4m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.204x (7.94m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - .901x (5.9m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.429x (6.29m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .609x (5.36m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.72m

[emoviefan]

14 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fly Me to the Moon	T-4	Jax	5	17	11	22	1,232	1.79%
		Phx	7	22	1	11	1,776	0.62%
		Ral	8	23	11	32	2,281	1.40%
	Total		20	62	23	65	5,289	1.23%
Longlegs	T-4	Jax	4	7	13	94	473	19.87%
		Phx	6	11	8	111	687	16.16%
		Ral	5	11	16	90	763	11.80%
	Total		15	29	37	295	1,923	15.34%
Twisters	T-11	Jax	5	57	15	106	9,841	1.08%
		Phx	6	31	3	105	6,447	1.63%
		Ral	8	44	0	110	6,280	1.75%
	Total		19	132	18	321	22,568	1.42%
Twisters (EA)	T-10	Jax	5	10	2	144	2,186	6.59%
		Phx	1	2	0	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	4	38	412	9.22%
	Total		8	14	6	199	3,216	6.19%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-4 adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 1.625x (1.56m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .985x (2.11m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - missed

 - Joy Ride - 1.327x (1.38m)

 - Massive Talent - missed

 - Lost City - .271x (693k)

 - Ungentlemanly - 1.226x (1.04m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .319x (866k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.32m

 

Longlegs T-4 adjusted comps

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 - Strangers - missed

 - Watchers - 4.76x (4m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.03x (2.48m)

 - Haunting of Venice (Total) - 1.928x (1.9m)

 - Crawdads (Total) - .778x (1.83m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.82m

 

Twisters (Total) T-11 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - missed

 - Godzilla x Kong - .932x (8.4m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.204x (7.94m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - .901x (5.9m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.429x (6.29m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .609x (5.36m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.72m

Those Twisters numbers seem to be pointing to 50-60 right now with that comp average just like Apes, BB ROD , and QP Day One all did Previews in that range.

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/4/2024 at 6:45 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	282	188	4908	40441	12.14

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3091	-38	62.98
MTC1:		2244	158	45.72
Other chains:		2664	30	54.28

 

Comps:

2.66x Dune Part 2 (THU): $26.56 Million (17 theaters)

4.74x Marvels: $31.3 Million (17 theaters)

2.34x Barbenheimer: $74.12 Million (lol)

 

A little note here, another theater in the metro I track, Showplace Icon in St Louis Park, shut down  thankfully, it was bought up right away by Marcus, but it is closed for now and it will be a bit before it opens back up. That meant a loss of 285 tickets, which is not nothing. Not as grave as Alamo closing down, but it does mess with the numbers a bit.

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	282	237	5145	40441	12.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3205	114	62.29
MTC1:		2373	129	46.12
Other chains:		2772	108	53.88

 

Comps:

2.54x Dune Part 2 (THU): $25.39 Million (17 theaters)

4.56x Marvels: $30.1 Million (17 theaters)

2.06x Barbenheimer: $65.35 Million (lol)

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Deadpool x Wolverine (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	282	237	5145	40441	12.72

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		3205	114	62.29
MTC1:		2373	129	46.12
Other chains:		2772	108	53.88

 

Comps:

2.54x Dune Part 2 (THU): $25.39 Million (17 theaters)

4.56x Marvels: $30.1 Million (17 theaters)

2.06x Barbenheimer: $65.35 Million (lol)

Holy shit on that Barbeheimer comp.LOL

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/4/2024 at 6:38 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	139	43	255	22960	1.11
Wednesday July 17 EA: 16 theaters	20	40	242	4204	5.76
TOTALS:	159	83	497	27164	1.83

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		201	31	78.82
MTC1:		171	24	67.06
Other chains:		84	19	32.94

 

Thursday Comps:

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.51x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $7.54 Million

1.81x Fall Guy: $4.25 Million

0.86x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $3.85 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.21 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.06x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $1.7 Million

1.69x Fall Guy: $1.35 Million

0.89x TMNT: $1.47 Million

0.55x MI7: $1.1 Million

 

Average: $1.41 Million

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Twisters (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 23 theaters	139	43	298	22960	1.3
Wednesday July 17 EA: 16 theaters	20	38	280	4204	6.66
TOTALS:	159	81	578	27164	2.13

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		227	26	76.17
MTC1:		189	18	63.42
Other chains:		109	25	36.58

 

Thursday Comps:

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.55x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $7.76 Million

1.96x Fall Guy: $4.61 Million

0.53x Godzilla x Kong: $4.83 Million (17 theaters)

0.89x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $4 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.3 Million

 

EA Comps:

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $1.68 Million

1.7x Fall Guy: $1.36 Million

TMNT:  Missed

0.58x MI7: $1.16 Million

 

Average: $1.4 Million

 

Right in line with katniss's numbers if you add up the Thursday and EA average!

[abracadabra1998]

6 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Holy shit on that Barbeheimer comp.LOL

 

It's going to be coming down by the millions with every update haha

 

 

[TalismanRing]

4 hours ago, AniNate said:

I'd like to get on the Fly Me to the Moon hype train but I'm really not seeing it here. Still zero Friday or Saturday sales in Canton

 

FLY ME TO THE MOON at my NYC Local 

 

Thur: 6 tickets (3 showings)

Friday: 7 tickets (4 showings)

 

Much better than last week's early access - which sold 2 tickets to each show over 2 different days showings.

 

Not the kind of films that has significant pre-sales at my theater.  Anyone But You sold 1 ticket for Thur as of Mon and 11 the day of previews.

 

LONGLEGS

Thur:  54/512 (2 showings)

This is higher than AQP3 which had 43/2528 as of opening week Monday

38 for Friday with 5 showings.  Both 7pm slots for Thur & Fri are where 90% of the sales are.

 

Edited July 7 by TalismanRing

[Flip]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fly Me to the Moon	T-4	Jax	5	17	11	22	1,232	1.79%
		Phx	7	22	1	11	1,776	0.62%
		Ral	8	23	11	32	2,281	1.40%
	Total		20	62	23	65	5,289	1.23%
Longlegs	T-4	Jax	4	7	13	94	473	19.87%
		Phx	6	11	8	111	687	16.16%
		Ral	5	11	16	90	763	11.80%
	Total		15	29	37	295	1,923	15.34%
Twisters	T-11	Jax	5	57	15	106	9,841	1.08%
		Phx	6	31	3	105	6,447	1.63%
		Ral	8	44	0	110	6,280	1.75%
	Total		19	132	18	321	22,568	1.42%
Twisters (EA)	T-10	Jax	5	10	2	144	2,186	6.59%
		Phx	1	2	0	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	4	38	412	9.22%
	Total		8	14	6	199	3,216	6.19%

 

Fly Me to the Moon (previews) T-4 adjusted comps

 - Arthur the King - 1.625x (1.56m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .985x (2.11m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - missed

 - Joy Ride - 1.327x (1.38m)

 - Massive Talent - missed

 - Lost City - .271x (693k)

 - Ungentlemanly - 1.226x (1.04m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .319x (866k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.32m

 

Longlegs T-4 adjusted comps

 - Smile (Total) - missed

 - Black Phone (Total) - missed

 - Strangers - missed

 - Watchers - 4.76x (4m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 2.03x (2.48m)

 - Haunting of Venice (Total) - 1.928x (1.9m)

 - Crawdads (Total) - .778x (1.83m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.82m

 

Twisters (Total) T-11 adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - missed

 - Godzilla x Kong - .932x (8.4m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (Total) - 1.204x (7.94m)

 - No Time to Die (Total) - .901x (5.9m)

 - Ghostbusters FE - 1.429x (6.29m)

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .609x (5.36m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.72m

Didn’t Watchers make $1m in previews?

[katnisscinnaplex]

24 minutes ago, Flip said:

Didn’t Watchers make $1m in previews?

It did!  One of the things I adjust for is different types of PLF.  Watchers included D-Box shows which increased its ATP slightly - this one only has standard shows so far in my areas

[Unfitclock]

@katnisscinnaplex the increases in comps look pretty good

[Unfitclock]

@katnisscinnaplex for fly me to the moon

[SpiderByte]

3 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

2.06x Barbenheimer: $65.35 Million

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/4/2024 at 6:26 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minnesota Previews:

 

Fly Me to the Moon (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	56	18	18	5086	0.35
Saturday July 6 EA: 16 theaters	16	14	14	1306	1.07
Friday July 5 EA: 17 theaters	16	74	74	1299	5.7
TOTALS:	88	106	106	7691	1.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		16	16	88.89
Other chains:		2	2	11.11

 

Thursday Comps:

0.23x Challengers: $360k

0.62x Anyone But You: $745k (17 theaters)

0.35x Big Fat Greek Wedding: $190k (17 theaters)

0.94x No Hard Feelings: $2.02 Million (12 theaters)

 

Doesn't make much sense to look into this much rn, will have to wait for after EA to see how it actually does.

 

EA Comps (Friday only):

0.25x Maxxxine: ?? (assuming $600k --> $145k)

0.13x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $200k

0.2x Fall Guy: $160k

0.27x Challengers: $150k

0.2x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $120k

 

Pretty weak stuff, I will give T-1 Hour updates for this as well as Saturday EA

 

Longlegs (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	23	247	247	1684	14.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		158	158	63.97
Other chains:		89	89	36.03

 

This is REALLY strong stuff, and if I comped this with normal horror flicks the $ value would be in the 4-5 Million. But this is not normal horror, it's way more pre-sales frontloaded with how cinephile-ish it is, and I don't want to mislead people who just look at the average comp value. Any comp ideas for this?

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Fly Me to the Moon (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	61	6	24	5671	0.42

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		20	4	83.33
Other chains:		4	2	16.67

 

Thursday Comps:

0.2x Challengers: $320k

0.37x Anyone But You: $440k (17 theaters)

0.28x Big Fat Greek Wedding: $150k (17 theaters)

0.36x No Hard Feelings: $780k (12 theaters)

 

Weak stuff, but not hitting the panic button just yet. The EA for this looked terrible up until T-1 and then it blew up here.

 

Longlegs (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	25	145	392	2035	19.26

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		237	79	60.46
Other chains:		155	66	39.54

 

Comps:

0.89x Civil War: $2.58 Million

0.58x KoFM: $1.5 Million (17 theaters)

2.81x Asteroid City: $3.09 Million (12 theaters)

 

Average: $2.39 Million

 

I know these look like super random comps, but to me this is clearly not behaving like a normal horror movie here, instead playing to the cinephile-heavy audience that my market can bring out. Going to roll with these and only had horror comps at probably T-1 Hour or so.

[Flip]

Lion King is looking eh for next weekend, will easily outgross the Pixar rereleases earlier this year at least.