The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[reddevil19]

9 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Movie delays and Oppenheimer breaking out is giving me hope for Killers of the Flower Moon, so much good buzz around that that I hope reaches the general audience.

 

Btw, not too late to join my over $300M worldwide club for that

Even with a 4 hours runtime, 300 is doable, considering previous collaborations with Scorsese have been solid hits. 

Nolan and Leo should make another movie again.

[poweranimals]

22 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Even with a 4 hours runtime, 300 is doable, considering previous collaborations with Scorsese have been solid hits. 

Nolan and Leo should make another movie again.

A 4 hour runtime? Screw that noise!

[filmlover]

I'm waiting to see just how much the studio will actually push Flower Moon considering it's really an Apple exclusive (as it stands it already has arguably the least commercially appealing concept out of all the Leo/Marty collaborations to date). If it's being treated as a glorified qualifying run for awards + the streaming launch (which would be easy with the actors being unable to promote it) then yeah, don't anticipate much at the box office.

[reddevil19]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm waiting to see just how much the studio will actually push Flower Moon considering it's really an Apple exclusive (as it stands it already has arguably the least commercially appealing concept out of all the Leo/Marty collaborations to date). If it's being treated as a glorified qualifying run for awards + the streaming launch (which would be easy with the actors being unable to promote it) then yeah, don't anticipate much at the box office.

My understanding is that it's gonna play wide and for a decent enough window. I wouldn't expect it on Apple TV+ before Christmas, but I'm really unsure.

[TheFlatLannister]

11 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Movie delays and Oppenheimer breaking out is giving me hope for Killers of the Flower Moon, so much good buzz around that that I hope reaches the general audience.

 

Btw, not too late to join my over $300M worldwide club for that

I can’t find the club. Send a link 

[LonePirate]

8 hours ago, El Gato said:

National Cinema Day already effecting segueing for Blue Beetle and Barbie near me. So many sell outs! Had to go to the OC area to get my tickets for Sunday lol 

OC as in Orange County? Or another OC? I don’t know what theater you’ve been checking but I looked at several in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas and there are plenty of BB and Barbie seats available on NCD. Where are you seeing these sell outs?

Edited August 22, 2023 by LonePirate

[MCKillswitch123]

I also am hoping that Killers of the Flower Moon breaks out. Not a huge OW hit, but anything at around $25-30 million and $140-150 million DOM would be solid for an R-rated 220 minute drama, even though it does boast a massive budget, but with Apple co-financing, I'm sure they're not actively expecting it to be a monster theatrically (though it should in an ideal world).

 

For the next couple weekends, things are dour lol. Gran Turismo is DOA, assuredly. Equalizer 3 and Nun II might hit $90-100 million DOM, but September is pretty doldrummy, which hopefully will give The Creator a chance to breakout. Tbh I'm not expecting much more than Dungeons & Dragons numbers, best case scenario something like Lost City/Bullet Train in the low $100 million range, but hey, an original sci-fi film doing good numbers would be a win.

[filmlover]

September actually doesn't look that bad since it's almost entirely made up of sequels (Equalizer, Nun, Greek Wedding, Haunting in Venice, Expendables, Paw Patrol, Saw) following all the prestige-y titles moving away. It's October that looks barren for the most part.

[reddevil19]

37 minutes ago, filmlover said:

September actually doesn't look that bad since it's almost entirely made up of sequels (Equalizer, Nun, Greek Wedding, Haunting in Venice, Expendables, Paw Patrol, Saw) following all the prestige-y titles moving away. It's October that looks barren for the most part.

The issue is I expect half those sequels to outright flop. Though as you said, better than Oct.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

I'm waiting to see just how much the studio will actually push Flower Moon considering it's really an Apple exclusive (as it stands it already has arguably the least commercially appealing concept out of all the Leo/Marty collaborations to date). If it's being treated as a glorified qualifying run for awards + the streaming launch (which would be easy with the actors being unable to promote it) then yeah, don't anticipate much at the box office.

it literally had imax trailers before mission impossible and oppenheimer

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

September actually doesn't look that bad since it's almost entirely made up of sequels (Equalizer, Nun, Greek Wedding, Haunting in Venice, Expendables, Paw Patrol, Saw) following all the prestige-y titles moving away. It's October that looks barren for the most part.

Didn't Expendables get pushed to October?

[Borobudur]

9 hours ago, El Gato said:

National Cinema Day already effecting segueing for Blue Beetle and Barbie near me. So many sell outs! Had to go to the OC area to get my tickets for Sunday lol 

 

I’m curious how Sunday will effect the box office this weekend

Can i clarify if Cinema Day only cover US or is it both US and Canada? There are 3000 participating cinema but as I know NA has 4500+ theaters. 

 

[filmlover]

31 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

it literally had imax trailers before mission impossible and oppenheimer

I got the trailer before my showings as well but the fact it's not on Paramount's website (fellow Apple production Napoleon is on Sony's site) and still doesn't even have a poster yet is giving off the impression that it might be treated to a bare minimum theatrical marketing campaign (especially if the stars are unable to promote it). We shall see, hopefully they give it a push.

 

15 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Didn't Expendables get pushed to October?

They're running ads now with the September 22 date. It's staying where it is.

[el sid]

18 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

That can't be right can it? How accurate is Quorum?

That looks almost too good to be true, no? OTOH almost all horror films did fine this year, especially when they were parts of a series. Spiral had an OW of 9M and Saw X has way better circumstances and Jigsaw is back. So maybe the Quorum data isn't way off.

[VanillaSkies]

51 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Can i clarify if Cinema Day only cover US or is it both US and Canada? There are 3000 participating cinema but as I know NA has 4500+ theaters. 

 

Cineplex (Canada’s largest chain) has showtimes for the openers for Friday/Saturday but not Sunday. Given that they usually update showtimes on Tuesday evenings, I’m sure that announcement will come later today. 
 

Landmark cinemas, another pretty big chain here in some Canadian provinces, already has $4 tickets for NCD up for Sunday. 
 

So yes, it’s happening here too, they are just slow on the advertising. There is a NCD Canada specific website too that shows all participating theatres;

 

https://www.nationalcinemaday.ca
 

My guess is those that aren’t part of the 3000+ theatres participating are independent theatres or theatres that will participate but late to confirm with the organizers.

[el sid]

The Equalizer 3 counted yesterday for Thursday = 10 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 77 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 51 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 2 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 41 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 18 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 195.

Comps (first three films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = 7 days left for Equalizer 3): Plane (435k from previews) had 89 sold tickets,
John Wick 4 (8.9M) had 2.049

and BT (4.6M) had 879 sold tickets.
Meg 2 (3.2M) had with 7 days to go (= 3 days left for Equalizer) 102 sold tickets.
Rambo V (1.3M) finally (= on Thursday of the release week for Thursday) had 406 sold tickets.
And Angel has Fallen (1.5M) finally had 459 sold tickets.
 

The Equalizer 3 counted yesterday for Friday = 11 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 70 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 30 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 44 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 17 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 164.

Comps: (first three films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday = 7 days left for Equalizer 3): Plane (10.3M) had 83 sold tickets,
John Wick 4 (73.8M) had 1.755

and BT (30M) had 655 sold tickets.
Fast X (67M) had with 9 days left 925 sold tickets.
Meg 2 (30M) had with 8 days left 99 sold tickets.
Rambo V (18.9M) finally had 393 sold tickets.
And Angel Has Fallen (21.4M) finally had 446 sold tickets (and 136 sold tickets on Monday of the release week which means in that comp Equalizer is already in front).

Absolutely uneven from the comps. From most comps it looks very decent but compared to John Wick 4 and Fast X it looks worrisome. It's also a bit strange that the sales in the AMC in LA sales are so low.
I guess Equalizer 3 will have ca. 3x the presales of now next Monday which would be over 500 and over 400 sold tickets. If it has walk-ups like Plane, Meg, Angel Has Fallen, all is fine (I think these films are the better comps). And good jumps would be nice too.

[el sid]

Retribution had today 61 sold tickets in 4 theaters (the AMCs in Miami, Michigan, San Francisco and LA) for Friday.
Comps: The best comp probably is Blacklight (3.5M OW) which finally (on Thursday of the release week for Friday) had 37 sold tickets in 6 theaters.
Copshop (2.3M OW) had on the same day, Tuesday of the release week, 20 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
The Protégé (2.9M OW) had 83 sold tickets 1 day later, namely on Wednesday of the release week.
Operation Fortune (3.1M OW) had also 1 day later 98 sold tickets.

Should at least become no total flop and get 5M+ OW.

Gran Turismo tomorrow.

[El Gato]

4 hours ago, LonePirate said:

OC as in Orange County? Or another OC? I don’t know what theater you’ve been checking but I looked at several in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas and there are plenty of BB and Barbie seats available on NCD. Where are you seeing these sell outs?

Near Orange County, I’m like in the outskirts of LA county. That awkward in the middle region between the two. My local AMC’s and Cinemark only had bad front seats left 

[Hilts]

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Golda T-1 comps

 - Respect - 1.743x (1.13m)

 - House of Guci - .504x (655k)

 - Cry Macho - .989x (1.58m)

 - Stillwater - 3.894x (1.09m)

 

Not sure what to expect for this.  Hadn't heard of it until yesterday.  Not sure if this is a Thursday release or if tomorrow is EA, but with most locations carrying two shows I figured that would be comparable to other previews for smaller movies.

 

 

I'd not heard of it either until I saw your post. Appears to be usual Thursday previews and Wednesday EA (Fathom First special event including an exclusive Q&A with Helen Mirren and director Guy Nattiv - nice). GOLDA | Fathom Events

 

Looks to be doing pretty okay in your region!

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:

Cineplex (Canada’s largest chain) has showtimes for the openers for Friday/Saturday but not Sunday. Given that they usually update showtimes on Tuesday evenings, I’m sure that announcement will come later today. 
 

Landmark cinemas, another pretty big chain here in some Canadian provinces, already has $4 tickets for NCD up for Sunday. 
 

So yes, it’s happening here too, they are just slow on the advertising. There is a NCD Canada specific website too that shows all participating theatres;

 

https://www.nationalcinemaday.ca
 

My guess is those that aren’t part of the 3000+ theatres participating are independent theatres or theatres that will participate but late to confirm with the organizers.

 

I saw this article yesterday, which indicates that the major chains in Canada will be participating.

 

https://etcanada.com/news/1015088/national-cinema-day-movie-theatres-across-north-america-screening-blockbusters-for-4-per-ticket/

 

As you've indicated, showtimes will likely appear in the next few hours for most theatres.

 

I just did a check, and theatres out in the Maritimes (that are a time zone ahead) , have already put up Sunday showtimes with NCD pricing.