The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Priscilla T-16: 27.17% Awareness

The Marvels T-23: 51.68%

Journey to Bethlehem T-23: 17.07%

Wish T-35: 36.8%

Ferrari T-68: 21.77%

Night Swim T-79: 16.74%

A Quiet Place: Day One T-142: 27.9%

 

Killers of the Flower Moon T-2: 41.69% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 21% chance of 40M, 12% chance of 70M, 6% chance of 80M, 3% chance of 90M

Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 58% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M, 17% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 80M

 

Trolls Band Together T-30: 46.39% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 61% chance of 40M, 44% chance of 50M, 39% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 90M, 17% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

 

The Iron Claw T-65: 14.27% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

[Tinalera]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Five Nights At Freddy's Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	122	15268	17695	2427	13.72%

 

Total Showings Added Today	20
Total Seats Added Today	2424
Total Seats Sold Today	125

 

T-9 Comps:   WARNING - USE MOSTLY FOR DAILY PACE PURPOSES FOR THE BELOW COMPS

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BA	203.61		71	1192		0/152	21769/22961	5.19%		4494	54.01%		15.27m
Scrm6	285.53		42	850		0/77	8897/9747	8.72%		3134	77.44%		16.28m
Wick4	165.89		71	1463		0/109	13836/15299	9.56%		5448	44.55%		14.76m
AtSV	93.60		192	2593		0/140	19549/22142	11.71%		9744	24.91%		16.24m
GOTG3	57.25		124	4239		0/207	25745/29984	14.14%		10750	22.58%		10.02m
TLM	113.94		125	2130		0/165	21370/23500	9.06%		6561	36.99%		11.74m
Flash	156.68		120	1549		0/175	23344/24893	6.22%		5327	45.56%		15.20m
Barbie	75.14		302	3230		0/127	12791/16071	20.10%		12077	20.10%		16.76m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of FNAFs current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     533/3078  [17.32% sold]
Matinee:    203/926  [21.92% | 8.36% of all tickets sold]

 

=========

 

From earlier today:

 

 

So literally.... LIT-ER-A-LY... EVERY SINGLE LOCAL MTC2 THEATER EXCEPT ONE EXPANDED SCREEN COUNTS TONIGHT.  Plus one of the minors also added a showing*.

*though technically not a screen as it added a late night showing.

 

...

 

So what about MTC3?!?

 

Let's get a Live Look locally what's going on over at MTC3 when it comes to approving more screens:

 

(not a single one of the added showings was at MTC3)

((amazing, innit?))

[abracadabra1998]

13 minutes ago, Eric Mouse said:

Killers of the Flower Moon T-2: 41.69% Awareness

 

Final Awareness:…, 3% chance of 90M
 

 

So you’re saying there’s a chance 👀

[Bob Train]

Will bad reviews hurt FNAF sales that much? We have seen a young-skewing videogame movie with meh RT score explode beyond any reasonable expectation this year (and I am not talking about Gran Turismo here).

 

And we have also seen many horror movies with terrible critic scores have solid walk-ups (most recently Insidious).

Edited October 18, 2023 by Bob Train

[Boxofficerules]

14 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Will bad reviews hurt FNAF sales that much? We have seen a young-skewing videogame movie with meh RT score explode beyond any reasonable expectation this year (and I am not talking about Gran Turismo here).

 

And we have also seen many horror movies with terrible critic scores have solid walk-ups (most recently Insidious).

Meh, I think bad word of mouth would hurt it more. It could rock 100% on rotten tomatoes but if the fans hate it then it will drop hard. 
The only think that would hurt it now is if it is bad and it leaked online now.
 

Has there every been a hotly anticipated movie that was selling really well but turned out to be terrible? The only one I can think of is Batman V Superman.

[Giorno]

2 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Meh, I think bad word of mouth would hurt it more. It could rock 100% on rotten tomatoes but if the fans hate it then it will drop hard. 
The only think that would hurt it now is if it is bad and it leaked online now.
 

Has there every been a hotly anticipated movie that was selling really well but turned out to be terrible? The only one I can think of is Batman V Superman.

Quantumania and Thor L&T in the last 2 years

[filmlover]

The fact Universal made FNAF a day-and-date title (like they did with Halloween Kills/Ends and Firestarter '22, all poorly received movies) and the embargo lifts after the movie will be available for the public to see (could this really somehow earn an even worse reception than their theatrical exclusive Exorcist sequel did earlier this month? Pretty low bar to clear) should be a sign to have low expectations as far as quality is concerned.

 

Though that would just make its drop in its second weekend (when both the fan rush and spooky season will be over) even more fascinating to see unfold.

[Shawn Robbins]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Honestly?  Too soon to say, IMO.  At least locally they're not getting worse, but it really is early.

 

(also all of the Disney 100 celebration stuff might have had a v minor halo effect)

 

 

Not quite a perfect storm of Committing to Priors but...

 

Very meme-y property, which means folks outside of the demo could be sleeping on it.  That includes everyone from local schedulers all the way up to movers and shakers in the corporate decision chain.

 

Day + Date = Skepticism since the next film to really break out with a D+D release will be the first, at least post-'rona.

 

Concerns over quality due to perceived lack of faith in the movie when it comes to rollout.

 

If I'm being honest, probably mostly the first factor with a dash of seasoning on the other two (esp D+D).  I mean, theater bookers ain't blind — they have to be seeing the same thing we are when it comes to pre-sales.  But it could just be that even the ones that see the storm brewing are still being a bit... reticent?  Reticent over it all given how Out of Left Field this seems to be to their expectations and are just waiting for a shoe to drop that never does.  Or at least having difficultly convincing the higher-ups that the other shoe isn't about to drop.

 

You would be surprised (actually, you probably wouldn't be at this point) at the number of people I've talked with not just in recent weeks but in recent days (!!!) that either still don't see it breaking out and/or have not even heard of FNAF.

 

This just goes to show that a very young and different generation is driving hype for this movie, and that's going to be very good news for the Millennials, Xers, and Baby Boomers running the companies who have been late to the game in booking the movie with the level of commitment it deserves despite the day-and-date streaming release.

 

There are points when tracking and projections disagree, then there are points they start to converge. This is definitely a case of the latter catching up to the former instead of the other way around. Internally, I'm doing all I can to spread the word with exhibitors, clients, and everyone in between that I'm in contact with to pay a little more attention to FNAF if they aren't already.

 

We definitely still have to adhere to the "cautious" part of "cautious optimism" when talking about the potential WOM/reviews/2nd weekend drop/fan rush/etc., but... the numbers are the numbers right now, at least as far as the opening goes.

[tdangie]

25 minutes ago, Shawn said:

This just goes to show that a very young and different generation is driving hype for this movie

You hit the nail on the head @Shawn! I hope industry folks are nice to this movie/franchise because I've definitely seen a lot of snark here and especially on reddit regarding the FNAF movie even though it's pre-sales have been great. ^{I think they hate feeling old...}

[el sid]

FNAF, counted yesterday for Thursday, October 26. 9 days left:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 191 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 279 (7 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 96 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 57 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 100 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 109 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 748 (13 showtimes)

 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.580.

Up rather modest 65.5% since my last counting 2 weeks ago.
Comps (all six films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): The Nun II (3.1M from previews) had 459 = 10.7M + 6 days left for FNAF (that means that the number can't be under 10.7M on Monday)
Saw X (2M) had 400 = 8M + 6 days left,
GotG III (17.5M) had 4.303 = 6.5M + 6 days left,
Scream 6 (5.7M) had 1.295 in 6 theaters vs 1.389 for FNAF in 6 theaters = 6.1M + 6 days left,
JW 4 (8.9M) had 2.048 = 6.9M + 6 days left
and The Meg 2 (3.2M) had 254 = 19.9M + 6 days left.
Barbie (22.3M) had with 7 days left 2.941 sold tickets = 12M + 2 days left for FNAF.

Yes, some comparison numbers do not look that great at the moment and I considered to drop some of my comps. But OTOH this is kind of a worst case scenario - e.g. John Wick 4 made The Equalizer 3 look like a 15M opener - and very probably till next Monday FNAF will have more than 2k sold tickets and all comps should be (significantly) over 10M. I'm sorry that I don't have better news today but 10M+ from previews (and the number could as well be higher) is still very good.

 

KotFM in a few hours.

Edit: Sorry guys, I just had no time to count today. Tomorrow again, promised.

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by el sid

[Arlborn]

10 minutes ago, tdangie said:

You hit the nail on the head @Shawn! I hope industry folks are nice to this movie/franchise because I've definitely seen a lot of snark here and especially on reddit regarding the FNAF movie even though it's pre-sales have been great. ^{I think they hate feeling old...}

Here? I am pretty sure BOT in general (at least the part that checks this thread frequently) has been on board with FNAF breaking out since pre-sales started. Hard to argue against numbers.

 

And personally, this millennial is very happy that this is blowing up and driving more of the younger people to the movies. I hope everyone gets what they want out of it, it’s good to see more video game movies actually listening to its fans nowadays 

[M37]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

You would be surprised (actually, you probably wouldn't be at this point) at the number of people I've talked with not just in recent weeks but in recent days (!!!) that either still don't see it breaking out and/or have not even heard of FNAF.

 

This just goes to show that a very young and different generation is driving hype for this movie, and that's going to be very good news for the Millennials, Xers, and Baby Boomers running the companies who have been late to the game in booking the movie with the level of commitment it deserves despite the day-and-date streaming release.

Yesterday I noted that FNAF was giving me YA vibes, and this generational gap between implied demand and those in charge of supply is reminding me very much of another younger slewing IP film adaptation that caught the industry off guard (for the record, I too was very much oblivious to the potential at the time)

 

Would also add that the robust sales in MTC2 & MiniTC2 suggest to me that’s there’s a potential demographic skew that is adding to the under-the-radar breakout potential of FNAF (see previously Sonic 2 and Minions 2)

 

EDIT: I was asked today by a former MTC co-worker if FNAF would be busier than ERAS, and immediately answered yes. Then did the math … with ATP discrepancies (and a real Thur preview), could be looking at ~4.5M admits on ERAS OW vs at least 6M in worst case for FNAF (prob 7M) if not 8M+ on the high end

Edited October 18, 2023 by M37

[Giorno]

The Marvels (D-22):

 

581 tickets sold (10 Houston AMC's)/+10 YD

 

Comp:
0.742 x (D-22) Oppenheimer = $7.79m

 

[M37]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Will bad reviews hurt FNAF sales that much? We have seen a young-skewing videogame movie with meh RT score explode beyond any reasonable expectation this year (and I am not talking about Gran Turismo here).

 

And we have also seen many horror movies with terrible critic scores have solid walk-ups (most recently Insidious).

My concern is the combination of potential poor reviews (given late embargo) and the availability on steaming; it makes the hurdle of getting people into theaters that much higher

 

Every D&D release has suffered with a weaker Sat & Sun (except for maybe Dune, where the PLF draw was able to overcome that GA erosion to streaming)

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Will bad reviews hurt FNAF sales that much? We have seen a young-skewing videogame movie with meh RT score explode beyond any reasonable expectation this year (and I am not talking about Gran Turismo here).

 

And we have also seen many horror movies with terrible critic scores have solid walk-ups (most recently Insidious).

 

It honestly depends on the type of bad reviews. Well, very likely.

 

If the reviews say it's a slog or an impenetrable mess or any of the other possibilities that basically boil down to BO-RING, then yes bad reviews can absolutely matter, even within the horror community.  Probably too soon for definitive judgements on legs, but look at The Exorcist: Believer.  Relatively collapsed within its OW even with the best possible month for it.

 

On the other hand, something like LTBC got rotten reviews, but because it was shlocky fun, it exploded.  I like to call them "popcorn movie" reviews from the days of my youth when 2.5 stars or even 2 stars out of five was seen as good enough for A Good Time at the Theaters.

 

This is where I like to say that the GA collectively should get a tiny bit more credit in how it consumes Rotten Tomatoes.  Yes, they do pay too much attention to it.  Way too much. But they're not totally blind followers of the fresh/rotten dichotomy, either.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

The fact Universal made FNAF a day-and-date title (like they did with Halloween Kills/Ends and Firestarter '22, all poorly received movies) and the embargo lifts after the movie will be available for the public to see (could this really somehow earn an even worse reception than their theatrical exclusive Exorcist sequel did earlier this month? Pretty low bar to clear) should be a sign to have low expectations as far as quality is concerned.

 

Though that would just make its drop in its second weekend (when both the fan rush and spooky season will be over) even more fascinating to see unfold.

 

FWIW, at least according to a post last week from @ThomasNicole, NBCUniversal came to their senses and are releasing reviews a day or so before previews, though I forget the exact timing when it comes to window.

[LonePirate]

In what may be an indication of both the age skew and resistance to the movie’s length, the Regal IMAX near me has sold 33 seats for a 2:30pm Thursday showing of KOTFM while the 7:00pm Thursday showing has sold only 23 seats. 
 

The Friday times are different as there are three showings at roughly 12:00pm, 4:30pm and 9:00pm. The theater is massive as it seats over 550 people and there is zero chance it will come close to selling out like Oppenheimer did. Sticking with two shows a day around the 2pm and 7pm hours seems best to me.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, tdangie said:

You hit the nail on the head @Shawn! I hope industry folks are nice to this movie/franchise because I've definitely seen a lot of snark here and especially on reddit regarding the FNAF movie even though it's pre-sales have been great. ^{I think they hate feeling old...}

Teenagers and young adults, particularly of the ethnically diverse kind, are the primary driving force behind moviegoing nowadays after everyone else abandoned it as a regular activity, so it makes perfect sense to expect a property they cherish to make exhibitors tons of money.

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Related question: will the Thursday shows this week be counted separately or rolled into the weekend total? I would presume the former, but with such a weird and limited schedule, I’m not positive the latter won’t happen to help generate headlines 

Since this just "weekend only", I expect all 4 days to be rolled into weekend gross. That said I am not sure how big the thursday BO will be. Its not seeing any walkups. So either ways its irrelevant. 

[Eric is Quiet]

https://deadline.com/2023/10/taylor-swift-the-eras-tour-killers-of-the-flower-moon-box-office-opening-1235576918/

 

Quote

The AMC-distributed Taylor Swift concert movie Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, which paused weekday play from Monday-Thursday, is looking at a 60%-70% dive in its second weekend with $27M-$37M off its first weekend of $92.3M. Those industry projections are based on the front-loaded nature of female-skewing pics, per sources.

 

Disney’s Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: The Best of Both Worlds Concert movie dropped 67% in its second weekend way back in 2008. However, Justin Bieber: Never Say Never had a better hold at -54% in 2011. All in, this is expected to be the best second weekend for a concert movie at the domestic box office.

 

Apple Original Films’ big splash into a wide theatrical release with Paramount on Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon has been looking at a $20M-$25M opening with tracking for a while. That would be mind-blowing for a 3 hour, 26-minute western drama that’s getting released in the midst of the actors strike, which has prevented stars from tubthumping their pics. Such conceived tentpoles as New Regency/20th Century Studios/Disney’s $80M The Creator were impacted greatly by the strike; that pic’s promotion was hamstrung sans an awesome San Diego Comic-Con and fall film festival launch, ultimately opening to $14M and currently at a running cume of $33.4M. Another adult-skewing title, 20th/Disney’s A Haunting in Venice, also took a hit with a $14.2M opening.

 

 

Why so optimistic on Killers of the Flower Moon? Analysts are bullish on the DiCaprio factor of it all in regards to the draw in a marketing campaign that’s been everywhere in TV spots and outdoor. A $20M+ opening here also would be a notable start for Apple’s foray into wide theatrical releases, its next being the Sony-distributed and Ridley Scott-directed Napoleon on November 22. The DiCaprio-Robert De Niro-Lily Gladstone movie has been on fire with critics since its world premiere at Cannes (which was where the stars previously did press back in May before the strike) with a current Rotten Tomatoes critics score of 96% certified fresh.