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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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32 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

For those of you who think the holidays are going to save Aquaman 2 if it sucks, I raise you this:

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTcx1Tlt_riRuLTZr-B3JQ

As I've said time and time again, if the tentpole of any given season isn't up to par, then people just won't go to the movies. Lack of competition isn't the airbag it once was.

I believe the legs ceiling is 5.38x 

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2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well I’m only talking rave reception. I don’t know why you think it couldn’t in that case? This is the one year it absolutely makes sense for something to explode if it’s loved. Audiences are starving here. Jumanji 2 rode a 30 something OW to 400+, not sure why this sounds unprecedented to you? 

 

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Really surprised the Resident Timothy stan is so down on this movie.

Not gonna dwell on this too long, but it’s because musicals have a tough ceiling. Most of the biggest musical hits in the post-Moulin Rouge era have all basically tapped out around 170M at their highest. Almost all of them are still below Grease, which is almost 50 years old. This is including Best Picture nominees and Greatest Showman, which had GOAT word of mouth. And even if it opened higher, it would have gotten to, like…200M? That’s a fair bit away from 400M.

 

Only exceptions have been the Disney remakes. And in those cases, even outside of nostalgia and iconic animated movies, I feel people are more willing to see a musical if it has the Disney name under it for whatever reason. There’s always going to be hesitation with some of the normies when it comes to musicals. And I’m speaking as a theater kid who eats up all things musical. Wonka is also based off a loved and nostalgic property. But big enough compared to Beauty and the Beast or Aladdin? I don’t agree with that. They’re even hiding the musical angle in the trailer, which is odd to me, especially because the actors couldn’t promote it for the longest time.

 

And that’s fine! Wonka doing 165 or something would be amazing. Would be an exciting story. But 400 would be a Herculean task, even with the Christmas holidays

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Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-31, Day 1, taken at around 10:30 PM CST):

Day: T-31 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 16 theaters 75 74 74 13104 0.56

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 69 N/A 93.24
MTC1: 44 N/A 59.46
Marcus: 16 N/A 21.62
Alamo: 6 N/A 8.11
Other chains: 8 N/A 10.81

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.39x Hunger Games (11 PM CST): $2.22 Million

0.16x The Marvels (10:15 PM CST): $1.06 Million

 

Being a fraction of an MCU flick is normal, but having a Day 1 less than half of the Hunger Games prequel... yeah not great bub

 

Migration (T-31, Day 1, taken around 11 PM CST):

Day: T-31 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 14 theaters 62 5 5 7436 0.07

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 0 N/A 0
MTC1: 3 N/A 60
Marcus: 0 N/A 0
Alamo: 0 N/A 0
Other chains: 2 N/A 40

 

Compared with:

7 Day 1 tickets sold for Wish

4 Day 1 tickets sold for Trolls Band Together

 

In short, we can learn... nothing at all! Stay tuned :)

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7 minutes ago, Eric Gray Baird said:

 

Not gonna dwell on this too long, but it’s because musicals have a tough ceiling. Most of the biggest musical hits in the post-Moulin Rouge era have all basically tapped out around 170M at their highest. Almost all of them are still below Grease, which is almost 50 years old. This is including Best Picture nominees and Greatest Showman, which had GOAT word of mouth. And even if it opened higher, it would have gotten to, like…200M? That’s a fair bit away from 400M.

 

Only exceptions have been the Disney remakes. And in those cases, even outside of nostalgia and iconic animated movies, I feel people are more willing to see a musical if it has the Disney name under it for whatever reason. There’s always going to be hesitation with some of the normies when it comes to musicals. And I’m speaking as a theater kid who eats up all things musical. Wonka is also based off a loved and nostalgic property. But big enough compared to Beauty and the Beast or Aladdin? I don’t agree with that. They’re even hiding the musical angle in the trailer, which is odd to me, especially because the actors couldn’t promote it for the longest time.

 

And that’s fine! Wonka doing 165 or something would be amazing. Would be an exciting story. But 400 would be a Herculean task, even with the Christmas holidays

Fair enough. I think at this point it's wanting something anything to break out and surprise. Barbenheimer seems like 10 years ago they way things are going. Not counting Taylor and FNAF those were their own things that appealed to narrow rabid fanbases.

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I will see Wonka but honestly...it doesn't look all that good IMO. It reminds me more of overproduced family movies with an inexplicable amount of talent behind them like Dolittle, Pan, etc. than it does the Wilder version.

 

As someone who enjoys going to the movies around the holidays, the bleak outlook/bad omens already for the season so far is pretty depressing.

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On 11/13/2023 at 5:46 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Color Purple (T-42):

Day: T-42 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 15 theaters 53 39 159 5345 2.97

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 0 0 0
MTC1: 66 12 41.51
Marcus: 48 15 30.19
Alamo: 7 5 4.4
Other chains: 38 7 23.9

 

These numbers are over a week, so 5-6 tickets a day. Next update in a week.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Color Purple (T-35):

Day: T-35 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 15 theaters 54 49 208 5502 3.78

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 0 0 0
MTC1: 97 31 46.63
Marcus: 55 7 26.44
Alamo: 9 2 4.33
Other chains: 47 9 22.6

 

Took this earlier but I forgot to post with all the wackyness of today. Keeps chugging along.

 

Comp:

0.26x Oppy: $2.72 Million

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5 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-31

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

188

467

38172

1.2%

*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

First few hours

 

(1.079x) of Blue Beetle $3.56M Previews

(0.293x) of The Flash $2.84M Previews

(0.288x) of The Marvels $1.90M Previews

Comps AVG: $2.77M

 

This does not feel like a $50M opener to me.

Now, this is bad like really bad but some things to note: It has a longer presales window than Blue beetle and The Flash - Like many have said including @M37 this is going to be pretty backloaded because of the Holidays. 1/4th of The Marvels is nuts regardless 

 

 No signs of a breakout 

 

3 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-31, Day 1, taken at around 10:30 PM CST):

Day: T-31 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 16 theaters 75 74 74 13104 0.56

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 69 N/A 93.24
MTC1: 44 N/A 59.46
Marcus: 16 N/A 21.62
Alamo: 6 N/A 8.11
Other chains: 8 N/A 10.81

 

Day 1 Comps:

0.39x Hunger Games (11 PM CST): $2.22 Million

0.16x The Marvels (10:15 PM CST): $1.06 Million

 

Being a fraction of an MCU flick is normal, but having a Day 1 less than half of the Hunger Games prequel... yeah not great bub

 

Still think I was sounding the alarm bells too early this morning, reddit???  :ph34r:

 

(yes yes, I know, "never read the comments")

 

----

 

FWIW, I do think that comps are in fact probably still pointing to 4m to 5m as a super super early indicator — which can in fact change in either direction —  as there are a whole lot of different variables in play that makes The Flash in particular a less than amazing comp.  That for instance did in fact have real hype/buzz going in, which almost certainly contributed to initial interest.

 

Maybe I'm putting too much weight on Shazam 2 as a comp, but that does have some broad similarities.  First film was fairly warmly received, but it was also the first film in the DC slate to get hit with the fallout of transitioning away from the current DCEU. And both factors certainly seem at play here for Aqua 2.

 

It has roughly the same pre-sale window length (32 days versus 29) so timing concerns is less of an issue like it will be for Blue Beetle, though Thanksgiving this week is likely a drag on ticket sales (a point @M37 been making, presumably comparing it to similar situations surrounding the Fourth of July and Halloween [maybe more the latter than the former]). 

 

Still, that should get evened out fairly quickly, especially if Black Friday/Cyber Monday shopping just spills over (a "fuck it, the charge card is already out, might as well buy movie tickets too") on some level or another.

 

I'll be interested to see just what the D1 numbers are out of Sacramento.  Have a target of sorts I want to see if it hits or not.

 

Do have some other thoughts, but I think I'll wait for D1 numbers to come out of Sacramento before really indulging in them.

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2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Wish MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 20371/389578 302400.43 2576 shows +4300

Wednesday - 27557/680570 376089.33 4366 shows +5860

 

Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. 

For previews , i think 2M with EA like Trolls 3 is likely to happen.

 

For Wednesday it's the same :

Friday - 24520/607494 349759.46 4099 shows +4531

 

The increase in seats is way higher but the ATP has the same increase than Trolls 3

 

Elemental Friday ( T-2) 24861/590735 353506.47 4234 shows // +6376

 

It's around 90% of the last day for seats and for ATP

 

I thinl maybe 10-10,5 OD ( wednesday + previews) and 40-50 OW 5 days depending to WOM

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57 minutes ago, Eric Gray Baird said:

 

Not gonna dwell on this too long, but it’s because musicals have a tough ceiling. Most of the biggest musical hits in the post-Moulin Rouge era have all basically tapped out around 170M at their highest. Almost all of them are still below Grease, which is almost 50 years old. This is including Best Picture nominees and Greatest Showman, which had GOAT word of mouth. And even if it opened higher, it would have gotten to, like…200M? That’s a fair bit away from 400M.

 

Only exceptions have been the Disney remakes. And in those cases, even outside of nostalgia and iconic animated movies, I feel people are more willing to see a musical if it has the Disney name under it for whatever reason. There’s always going to be hesitation with some of the normies when it comes to musicals. And I’m speaking as a theater kid who eats up all things musical. Wonka is also based off a loved and nostalgic property. But big enough compared to Beauty and the Beast or Aladdin? I don’t agree with that. They’re even hiding the musical angle in the trailer, which is odd to me, especially because the actors couldn’t promote it for the longest time.

 

And that’s fine! Wonka doing 165 or something would be amazing. Would be an exciting story. But 400 would be a Herculean task, even with the Christmas holidays

Another obstacle it faces is the property's awareness amongst young people, the primary moviegoers of today. How many today know who Willy Wonka is? And how many of them actually care? Mary Poppins Returns faced a similar problem back in 2018, and unfortunately wasn't able to overcome it. I'm thinking a similar underperformance is likely for Wonka. The people who are familiar with him don't go to the movies anymore, and the people who still do go could see Wonka as a washed up has-been character and not find the movie appealing.

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5 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Another obstacle it faces is the property's awareness amongst young people, the primary moviegoers of today. How many today know who Willy Wonka is? And how many of them actually care? Mary Poppins Returns faced a similar problem back in 2018, and unfortunately wasn't able to overcome it. I'm thinking a similar underperformance is likely for Wonka. The people who are familiar with him don't go to the movies anymore, and the people who still do go could see Wonka as a washed up has-been character and not find the movie appealing.

Willy Wonka definitely is way more popular today than Mary Poppins. The Wilder version specifically? Not sure. But the book and the character himself is still definitely popular

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Quick and Dirty Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Sacramento Report [T-31]

146/13960 (1.50% sold) 78 showtimes

 

0.82022x The Suicide Squad on Day 1   [3.80m] [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.34272x Black Adam on Day 1               [2.60m]
1.23729x Shazam 2 on Day 1                   [4.21m]
0.32159x TLM on Day 1                            [3.31m]
0.14328x AtSV on Day 1                           [2.49m]
0.22813x The Flash on Day 1                   [2.21m]

 

====

 

Alright, I mentioned I was semi-, sorta-, kinda- looking for a target for Aqau 2 to reach and it just missed it (150 tickets). Buuuut close enough, I suppose.

 

As one can see, the only comp that spits anything out in the 4 to 5 range is in fact Shazam 2.  But, well, it does kinda feel right.  Right now at least.

 

Not really sure there's that much more to say.  This was a very soft start.  The main open question, IMO, is if it will indeed follow Shazam 2, or be appreciably better or worse than it.  And, frankly?  Haven't got a clue.  Not yet at least.  Did like that it more or less hit the benchmark I was looking for, as I didn't reasonably expect it to do much better as I was watching the growth rate during the day.  At the same time I absolutely hate how it's done practically zero business at some of the busier theaters in town. 

 

So gonna keep an eye on this on my home sheet.  Next public update?  Hell if I know.  Maybe T-21.  More likely T-14.  Unless I see something interesting against Shazam 2, that is.

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22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-2]

1482/13946 (10.63% sold) [+164 tickets] [634 EA (FINAL) | 848 Tue (+164)]  103 showings (9 EA | 94 Tue)

 

2.2021x Elemental at T-2 [NO OVERALL COMP THANKS TO EA/DT MIX]

0.77591x Elemental FINAL TOTAL

 

TUESDAY ONLY COMP:

0.94327x TMNT:MM at T-2 [3.63m - TUE ONLY] [Not Adjusted for lower ATP due to more kids tickets sold]

1.26003x Elemental at T-2  [3.02m - TUE ONLY] [Not Adjusted for lower ATP due to mix of more DT tickets]

 

========

 

EA ONLY COMP:

0.33194x Elemental [FINAL] [797k - SAT ONLY]

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [T-1]

1788/15179 (11.78% sold) [+164 tickets] [634 EA (FINAL) | 1154 Tue (+305)]  122 showings (9 EA | 113 Tue)

 

1.8226x Elemental at T-1 [NO OVERALL COMP THANKS TO EA/DT MIX]

0.93612x Elemental FINAL TOTAL

 

TUESDAY ONLY COMPS:

No Adjustment for Discount Tuesday:

0.80643x TMNT at T-1    [3.10m]

 

Adjusted Downward by 25% for Discount Tuesday:
1.17635x Elemental at T-1      [2.12m]
 

0.55481x GBA at T-1             [2.12m] [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.40028x Sonic 2 at T-1       [1.88m]
1.42645x Shazam 2 at T-1    [3.64m]
0.16404x AtSV at T-1            [2.12m]
0.12208x Barbie at T-1          [2.04m]
0.81039x HM at T-1              [1.88m]
0.22395x FNAF at T-1          [1.73m]

 

========

 

EA ONLY COMP:

0.33194x Elemental [FINAL] [797k - SAT ONLY]

 

======================

 

So I decided to bite the bullet and throw a shit ton of comps on the wall, going for the ones that were more kids friendly/lower ATP than others.  Also decided to apply a 25% Discount Tuesday penalty.  Might be too low as I've seen some folks use 30%, but eh. 

 

Even with the DT penalty factored in, and using very kids-friendly movie comps that were in the 2m-3m range like Haunted Mansion and Elemental, Sacramento is probably running pretty hot. In fact, the pure not-DT adj Elemental comp didn't go down all that much as it went from 3.02m to 2.82m.

 

Have to see where Sacramento is pointing at the end of the day before I make any final conclusions.

 

Next, and final, update will be around 4:30ish Pacific, as I don't generally post mid-day updates for Q&D's.

Edited by Porthos
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10 hours ago, Porthos said:

Going to keep this ***ON TOPIC*** and talk solely about BUZZ and TRACKING here.

 

People probably don't want to hear this, but...

 

We are just, JUST NOW, exiting a period where the Hollywood Hype Machine — you know one of the things that generates buzz — was not just shut down, but was actively suppressed.  Both by Hollywood and by social media types and other folks elsewhere online who were sympathetic to strikers.

 

Compounding that, the DCEU is in transition.  Everyone knows this.  So even if there was some sort of self-sustaining hype possible outside of the Hollywood Hype Machine, that too has been actively suppressed.  

 

And I do mean the words "actively suppressed" here, as there are real, actual, tangible forces that are acting like anti-buzz, for lack of a better term.

 

Now the transition of the DCEU to the DCU or whatever they're calling it was always gonna put a massive weight on the scales for this movie.  Or be a tremendous headwind.  Pick whatever metaphor one wants, I'm game.

 

But we can not, and should not, just ignore the fact that even if WB/Hollywood wanted to Hype Up this movie the last few months, they really couldn't.  Even if they tried, a decent chunk of the audience wouldn't have been receptive to it.  And that sort of ACTIVE ANTI-BUZZ doesn't go away just like that *snaps fingers* thanks to the SAG strike being (probably) over.

 

So is it really a surprise it is having a soft opening?

Is it really a surprise that MOST films released post July are facing problems?

 

Sure there's been the occasional viral breakout.  But film after film after film has either not reached expectations or had some sort of problem on their rollout.  Maaaaaaaaaaaybe there's a reason for that.

 

I've been thinking about this comment with respect to tracking a bit.

 

I think we certainly have enough films that have struggled since the strikes that we can build a connection here. However, the beauty of this thread is that it has data that can better pin point issues.

 

When looking at the films that have struggled, it seems like the issues have started on day 1, when impact on cast promotion is probably the lowest. First day sales targets the core base that knows when tickets are on sale.

 

On the other side, I don't think we've seen a film finish strong since Barbieheimer, so we can probably still state that there has been an impact. Even the two biggest hits during that time of Eras and FNAF had muted final stretches. There's explanations for both, but I think it's still worth noting.

 

Aquaman is going to be an interesting case. It's getting a slow start, but it should have a full month of promotion. Momoa has already hosted SNL. He'll be booked on all the shows over the next month.

 

As long as word of mouth isn't toxic, we should be able to see if the PR tour has an impact.

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9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 24822/250306 299819.48 1806 shows

12/26 - 6206/250278 74715.22 1782 shows

 

 

its sales for Christmas is impressive this far out. But its just one day. We have to see what that means close to release. 

Anecdotal. But i saw more than couple churches in my area organizing movie trips after the Christmas sermons. If the stars align this could bring out an underserve but powerful demographic, the mature black woman.

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20 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I've been thinking about this comment with respect to tracking a bit.

 

I think we certainly have enough films that have struggled since the strikes that we can build a connection here. However, the beauty of this thread is that it has data that can better pin point issues.

 

When looking at the films that have struggled, it seems like the issues have started on day 1, when impact on cast promotion is probably the lowest. First day sales targets the core base that knows when tickets are on sale.

 

On the other side, I don't think we've seen a film finish strong since Barbieheimer, so we can probably still state that there has been an impact. Even the two biggest hits during that time of Eras and FNAF had muted final stretches. There's explanations for both, but I think it's still worth noting.

 

Aquaman is going to be an interesting case. It's getting a slow start, but it should have a full month of promotion. Momoa has already hosted SNL. He'll be booked on all the shows over the next month.

 

As long as word of mouth isn't toxic, we should be able to see if the PR tour has an impact.

It would be funny if Aquaman with a month of cast promotion doesn't make more money in its OW than Blue Beetle (which completely lacked cast promotion).

 

Also, there isn't tracking for Wonka yet, right?

Edited by Kon
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12 minutes ago, Kon said:

It would be funny if Aquaman with a month of cast promotion doesn't make more money in its OW than Blue Beetle (which completely lacked cast promotion).

 

Also, there isn't tracking for Wonka yet, right?

 

There is some Wonka updates in this thread.

 

I'm tracking, just not posting daily due to numbers being too low to really make much sense of with a smaller sample. Sales starting about 5 or 6 days ago, so I'd go back a few pages before the Aquaman madness started.

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On 11/13/2023 at 7:37 AM, M37 said:

Hunger Games: BoSS Preview Tracking T-4 Update

 

We'll see what final days bring, but for now all averages are around ~$5.5M, but most trending up, so room to go higher. Still holding mostly steady against Barbie as well

4zLK4MR.png

 

Friday sales also look solid, better than Marvels without the holiday boost, so it should do better than the ~7x we're going to finish at there. Here's a quick FM, but with fewer data points, less certainty on the bounds and midpoints than usual. Looks like probably $40M+ to me, with potential to top Marvels and even make a run at $50M

 

HG:BoSS OW Forecast Matrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$4.8 $5.0 $5.3 $5.5 $5.8 $6.0 $6.3 $6.5 $6.8
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
6.50 $30.9 $32.5 $34.1 $35.8 $37.4 $39.0 $40.6 $42.3 $43.9
6.75 $32.1 $33.8 $35.4 $37.1 $38.8 $40.5 $42.2 $43.9 $45.6
7.00 $33.3 $35.0 $36.8 $38.5 $40.3 $42.0 $43.8 $45.5 $47.3
7.25 $34.4 $36.3 $38.1 $39.9 $41.7 $43.5 $45.3 $47.1 $48.9
7.50 $35.6 $37.5 $39.4 $41.3 $43.1 $45.0 $46.9 $48.8 $50.6
7.75 $36.8 $38.8 $40.7 $42.6 $44.6 $46.5 $48.4 $50.4 $52.3
8.00 $38.0 $40.0 $42.0 $44.0 $46.0 $48.0 $50.0 $52.0 $54.0
8.25 $39.2 $41.3 $43.3 $45.4 $47.4 $49.5 $51.6 $53.6 $55.7
8.50 $40.4 $42.5 $44.6 $46.8 $48.9 $51.0 $53.1 $55.3 $57.4
On 11/17/2023 at 5:51 PM, M37 said:

Funny thing is, the midpoint on the forecast matrix I put out the other day was actually $5.75 - I just have it all set to  round to one decimal (Do think I'll be a bit low on IM though and miss dead center)

HG:BoSS OW Forecast Matrix
Thursday Preview Gross Range
$4.75 $5.00 $5.25 $5.50 $5.75 $6.00 $6.25 $6.50 $6.75
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)
6.50 $30.9 $32.5 $34.1 $35.8 $37.4 $39.0 $40.6 $42.3 $43.9
6.75 $32.1 $33.8 $35.4 $37.1 $38.8 $40.5 $42.2 $43.9 $45.6
7.00 $33.3 $35.0 $36.8 $38.5 $40.3 $42.0 $43.8 $45.5 $47.3
7.25 $34.4 $36.3 $38.1 $39.9 $41.7 $43.5 $45.3 $47.1 $48.9
7.50 $35.6 $37.5 $39.4 $41.3 $43.1 $45.0 $46.9 $48.8 $50.6
7.75 $36.8 $38.8 $40.7 $42.6 $44.6 $46.5 $48.4 $50.4 $52.3
8.00 $38.0 $40.0 $42.0 $44.0 $46.0 $48.0 $50.0 $52.0 $54.0
8.25 $39.2 $41.3 $43.3 $45.4 $47.4 $49.5 $51.6 $53.6 $55.7
8.50 $40.4 $42.5 $44.6 $46.8 $48.9 $51.0 $53.1 $55.3 $57.4

 

Russell Crowe Gladiator GIF

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