The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[M37]

11 hours ago, M37 said:

I'll be honest, we're getting a bit out of my wheelhouse, because usually I don't bother with direct ATP adjustments, but rather let PSM math do the work for me. But will give it a go, working through my thoughts

 

Pulled a few non-Thursday, full day MTC1 sales total that would potentially have a similar matinee heavy skew, and calculated the PSM (for reference, a typical big Thursday preview is around $56/tix)

• Barbie Sun 7/23 = $64.0
• Oppy Sun 7/23 = $57.3
• Mario Wed 4/05 OD = $63.7
• Mario Fri 4/07 = $69.3
• Mario Sat 4/08 = $66.7

Not fond of such a limited data set ( @keysersoze123, if you have others handy that might be applicable, let me know), and they're in a decently small range, but here's where it gets complicated

 

Holidays are typically more of a boon to the little guys than the big MTCs (their market share decreases), so that Mario Good Friday number is where I would start (higher PSM = lower market share, or underindex). But also MTC1 tends to underindex on family films in general, and will probably overindex on TCP. They also way overindexed on Oppy, but that was with a massive PLF draw and boost to ATP, which TCP won't have. And none of these are a Monday or Christmas Day comp, which means there could be even more variables/deviation at play (like senior day?), and that's presuming TCP does in fact have a similar matinee ratio and ATP

 

 

With all of that said, would probably ballpark at ~$60 PSM, in range of Barbie, pending more data, and yet won't be shocked if that ratio is off by $10 in either direction. But with that estimate, for a $20M gross, would need to see at least 300K MTC1 tickets sold for TCP on Xmas day, maybe 330K ... which would be 94% of current seats allocated. To challenge Sherlock Holmes for all time Xmas day opening record ($24.6M), in range of at 375K tickets if not over 400K, which could still be well over 50% of its final seat allocation

 

Presuming that math holds, can make a case for $20M+, but I think the matinee pricing effect as well the likely big market heavy skew, where seats are even more of a premium and run up against capacity, are limiting factors.

Following up here with the additional data points Keyser provided.

Title	Day	PSM ($/T)	Tix	BO$
Wonka	Sat	$71.0	197,433	$14.03
Mario	(Good) Fri	$69.3	790,521	$54.80
Mario	Sat	$66.8	853,769	$56.99
GOTG3	Sun	$66.5	472,658	$31.43
Barbie	Sun	$64.0	682,893	$43.71
AMWQ	Sun	$63.7	404,697	$25.77
Mario	Wed	$63.7	498,000	$31.70
Mermaid	Sat	$63.6	473,426	$30.12
Mario	(East) Sun	$62.4	554,006	$34.57
Marvels	Sat	$57.9	263,523	$15.26
Oppy	Sun	$57.3	404,822	$23.19

 

None are ideal, but two in particular I would have had my eye on without knowing any numbers - Barbie Sun and Mermaid Sat - are nearly identical. There's also solid clustering overall, with the high and low outliers explainable by nature of respective films, so that's good enough for me to use that ~$64/tix as the baseline, though it may not work out perfectly due the nuance of Xmas day itself or this film in particular, should be in range.

 

So for TCP's Xmas opening day, to get to Into the Woods/Unbroken range ($15M), looking for 230K total tix, for Les Mis ($18M) level 275K, to put $20M in play around 310K, and to give Sherlock a run ($24.6) probably 375K+ tickets

Have a difficult time seeing more than 2/3 capacity sold across the entire MTC (Barbie & Oppy topped out around 61%), so the total MTC1 seats allocated times 43 is the approximate grossing ceiling, currently at $16M (375K), but more seats should be added as Xmas day schedules are finalized

 

Edited December 17, 2023 by M37

[abracadabra1998]

Spent some time this morning looking at The Color Purple. Please keep in mind this is my first time diving more into the ATP aspect so I don't really have comps for movies in the past, and I don't have a lot of experience with this. Anyways:

 

At T-8, for Monday Christmas Day:

Day: T-8	Shows	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	73	1925	7831	24.58

 

Spoiler

Type of tix:		Total:	Percentage:
PLFs:		101	5.25
MTC1:		824	42.81
Marcus:		251	13.04
Alamo:		208	10.81
Other chains:		642	33.35

 

Matinee* seats: 1045/1925 of tickets, ~54% of total tickets sold

*By Matinee, I mean tickets that are discounted due to being earlier in the day, not necessarily a specific time period (the cut-off is usually before 4 PM for most theaters)

 

At T-9, for Tuesday, day after Christmas:  341 tickets sold

• That total is 17.7% of Christmas Day tickets
• 170/341 tickets are matinee --> ~50% of total tickets
• Only 6 tickets for this day are PLF

A note on PLF: Unlike Sacramento, it seems this is lagging hard on PLF screens. Only one theater has allotted some (4 DLX screens) to Color Purple. It will catch up so ATP will likely go up a tad bit.

Finally, on ATP, for Christmas Day:

Total $$$:		22337.93
ATP:		11.60411948

 
So it's at about $11.6 per ticket.
NOTE: This does not include any adjustment for children or senior tickets, because frankly I don't know how I would incorporate those. That could be meaningful with the senior prices particularly, but unless someone tells me how I could account for that, this is the best I could do.
 
While I don't have past comps, as stated above, I went ahead and looked at Aquaman's ATP for Thursday previews, just to see how it would compare to the average blockbuster:

Total $$$:		7565.55
ATP:		17.63531469

 

So about $17.6 per ticket, which means about a 34% adjustment for The Color Purple, an even greater than the adjustment I had been making.

 

Anyways, TLDR: many many many matinee tickets, and very very very low ATP.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/14/2023 at 10:23 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	84	60	343	15510	2.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		277	37	80.76
MTC1:		219	45	63.85
Marcus:		45	3	13.12
Alamo:		30	5	8.75
Other chains:		49	7	14.29

 

Comps:

0.48x Hunger Games: $2.74 Million

0.28x FNAF: $2.84 Million

0.37x MI7: $2.67 Million

0.37x Indiana Jones: $2.66 Million

0.28x The Marvels: $1.82 Million

1.8x Blue Beetle: $5.93 Million 

 

Average: $3.11 Million

 

Just bleh all around, Blue Beetle is pulling up the average hard.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	84	86	429	15510	2.77

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		337	60	78.55
MTC1:		265	46	61.77
Marcus:		65	20	15.15
Alamo:		39	9	9.09
Other chains:		60	11	13.99

 

Comps:

0.41x Hunger Games: $2.34 Million

0.26x FNAF: $2.68 Million

0.32x MI7: $2.22 Million

0.36x Indiana Jones: $2.57 Million

0.31x The Marvels: $2.04 Million

1.82x Blue Beetle: $6 Million 

 

Average: $2.98 Million

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/14/2023 at 10:33 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Migration (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	75	22	73	9413	0.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		12	5	16.44
MTC1:		27	4	36.99
Marcus:		11	4	15.07
Alamo:		8	0	10.96
Other chains:		27	14	36.99

 

Comps:

0.79x Trolls Band Together: $1.03 Million

0.38x Wish (TUE): $680k

0.3x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $940k

 

Average: $880k

 

Closer to a million average with a Wish Tuesday adjustment, but bleh

 

Anyone But You (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	49	29	29	3662	0.79

 

Comps:

0.56x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $305k

0.4x Joy Ride (w/ EA): $435k

 

Average: $370k

 

No Hard Feelings is tricky because that really exploded near the end, so I'm not sure that is very applicable here. Anyways, mega blah

 

The Iron Claw numbers coming on Sunday

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Migration (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	75	51	124	9413	1.32

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		23	11	18.55
MTC1:		43	16	34.68
Marcus:		22	11	17.74
Alamo:		7	-1	5.65
Other chains:		52	25	41.94

 

Comps:

0.97x Trolls Band Together: $1.26 Million

0.48x Wish (TUE): $860k

0.4x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.24 Million

 

Average: $1.12 Million

 

Rose against all comps.

 

Anyone But You (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 15 theaters	49	33	62	3662	1.69

 

Comps:

0.78x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $425k

0.56x Joy Ride (w/ EA): $615k

 

Average: $520k

 

The Iron Claw (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	25	105	105	2028	5.18

 

Comps:

0.4x Asteroid City: $440k

0.44x The Creator: $590k

 

Average: $515k

 

Don't have very many good comps for this one, I welcome any ideas!

[Relevation]

7 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

The Iron Claw (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	25	105	105	2028	5.18

 

Comps:

0.4x Asteroid City: $440k

0.44x The Creator: $590k

 

Average: $515k

If you have it then Priscilla should be a bullseye comp here

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/16/2023 at 6:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	275	33106	0.83%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.676x) of Trolls 3 $878k Previews

(0.378x) of Elemental $907k Previews

Comps AVG: $893k

 

Yeah, it looks dead for OW...Just no signs of life

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

MIGRATION 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
176	306	33106	0.92%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

31

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.723x) of Trolls 3 $940k Previews

(0.379x) of Elemental $909k Previews

Comps AVG: $925k

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 133055/364970 1682211.55 2590 shows

12/26 - 34602/337898 439804.48 2367 shows

 

Motoring on. Could be at 250K+ by end of next Sunday before walkups :-)

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 144221/373283 1823287.77 2639 shows

12/26 - 38031/341952 483451.01 2392 shows

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

8 minutes ago, Relevation said:

If you have it then Priscilla should be a bullseye comp here

That was my first thought but I was particularly busy that week so didn’t track it  I remember @TheFlatLannister did do it so if he tracks The Iron Claw that’ll be great!

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/16/2023 at 6:29 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	162	25978	0.62%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(0.857x) of Greek Wedding 3 $471k Previews

(0.508x) of Asteroid City $559k Previews

Comps AVG: $515k

 

There seems to be Tuesday and Wednesday EA for this (Exclusively MTC1 it seems)

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

ANYONE BUT YOU

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
141	192	25978	0.74%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

30

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(0.965x) of Greek Wedding 3 $531k Previews

(0.563x) of Asteroid City $619k Previews

Comps AVG: $575k

 

*Not counting EA sales* 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 minute ago, abracadabra1998 said:

That was my first thought but I was particularly busy that week so didn’t track it  I remember @TheFlatLannister did do it so if he tracks The Iron Claw that’ll be great!

I could try to run some numbers tomorrow as tonight I won't be home...But I probably won't provide daily updates 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/16/2023 at 6:37 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	4199	32294	13.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

210

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-9

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(1.063x) of TMNT $22.61M 

(1.434x) of TLM $14.77M 

Comps AVG: $18.69M

 

Kind of experimenting with comps here 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
172	4541	32294	14.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

342

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-8

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(6.071x) of TMNT $23.37M 

(1.470x) of TLM $15.14M 

Comps AVG: $19.26M

 

Kind of experimenting with comps here 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/16/2023 at 6:28 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1216	38536	3.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-5

 

(1.182x) of Blue Beetle $3.90M Previews

(0.376x) of The Flash $3.65M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.78M

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
191	1264	38536	3.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-4

 

(1.185x) of Blue Beetle $3.91M Previews

(0.377x) of The Flash $3.66M Previews

Comps AVG: $3.79M

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, DAJK said:

Migration gives me serious Ferdinand vibes, not sure if anyone else is expecting a similar run. Maybe quite a bit less OS but I'm pretty much expecting an identical domestic run.

I am too, it feels completely devoid of chatter surrounding it. The first trailer being 2/3 clips from other Illumination movies in retrospect should've been the sign that this wasn't going anywhere tbh.

[HummingLemon496]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I am too, it feels completely devoid of chatter surrounding it. The first trailer being 2/3 clips from other Illumination movies in retrospect should've been the sign that this wasn't going anywhere tbh.

Lmao for real. I really overestimated this movie

Edited December 18, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Porthos]

9 hours ago, DAJK said:

Migration gives me serious Ferdinand vibes, not sure if anyone else is expecting a similar run. Maybe quite a bit less OS but I'm pretty much expecting an identical domestic run.

 

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I am too, it feels completely devoid of chatter surrounding it. The first trailer being 2/3 clips from other Illumination movies in retrospect should've been the sign that this wasn't going anywhere tbh.

 

Not the Migration thread but I'll just say that after seeing those awful "PLEEEEEAAAASSSSSSE"/poorly executed potty humor TV ads over and over and over again on various NFL games that I'm a tiny bit surprised it's selling as well as it is!

 

(any other comments I have would have to be in the Migration thread proper)

[MovieMan89]

Ferdinand is probably a good comp if WOM is so-so, but it should easily blaze past those legs if reception is strong. Not looking like a much better opening though 

[filmlover]

54 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Not the Migration thread but I'll just say that after seeing those awful "PLEEEEEAAAASSSSSSE"/poorly executed potty humor TV ads over and over and over again on various NFL games that I'm a tiny bit surprised it's selling as well as it is!

The marketing has definitely not been making a strong case for itself in this feast or famine climate. But kids movies disappoint over the holidays all the time, only difference here is that even Illumination is looking to prove they aren't invincible either.

 

Mostly I'm just worried about what the box office blues of this year mean for 2024 (already looking like a soft year thanks to the strikes) but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

[dallas]

19 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The marketing has definitely not been making a strong case for itself in this feast or famine climate. But kids movies disappoint over the holidays all the time, only difference here is that even Illumination is looking to prove they aren't invincible either.

 

Mostly I'm just worried about what the box office blues of this year mean for 2024 (already looking like a soft year thanks to the strikes) but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

I think there are plenty big films releasing next year. 

[abracadabra1998]

Took a look at my usual theaters for the January releases:

 

Mean Girls has sold a total of 21 tickets for THU + WED EA. Weirdly, still no MTC1 screenings available, so it's bringing down that number. Wonka was at 35 tickets sold in my theaters sans MTC1, so not bad being at around 2/3 of it this far out.

 

The Beekeeper, on the other hand, is the exact opposite: its only available screenings so far are MTC1. 0 tix sold across all of them. 

 

Not surprised since all studio (and audience) attention is in the Christmas season, so my next update won't be until after Christmas.

[dallas]

40 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Took a look at my usual theaters for the January releases:

 

Mean Girls has sold a total of 21 tickets for THU + WED EA. Weirdly, still no MTC1 screenings available, so it's bringing down that number. Wonka was at 35 tickets sold in my theaters sans MTC1, so not bad being at around 2/3 of it this far out.

 

The Beekeeper, on the other hand, is the exact opposite: its only available screenings so far are MTC1. 0 tix sold across all of them. 

 

Not surprised since all studio (and audience) attention is in the Christmas season, so my next update won't be until after Christmas.

I'm dumb. What does MTC1 mean?