The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Probably the craziest T-6 i've ever tracked. Usually we start hitting 1k seats sold in a single day around T-1 

 

 

(been a while since I posted it and probs a bit overdue)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

(been a while since I posted it and probs a bit overdue)

It was already shaping up to be a major hit at least on opening day. The positive reviews and Fresh Tomato just sealed the deal on it winning the month in the US.

[dallas]

In other words, Migration has had 20% of its tickets returned since yesterday 😬 Not good. This movie's only hope is good WOM. 

[IdahoJacket]

7 hours ago, joselowe said:

Should hopefully give it a nice bump

 

@IdahoJacket @Dreadnought @ringedmortality @MovieMan89 @ThomasNicole

Why did you tag me?

[MovieMan89]

26 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

It was already shaping up to be a major hit at least on opening day. The positive reviews and Fresh Tomato just sealed the deal on it winning the month in the US.

Disagree it’s winning the month, but I’m fully on board 25m+ Xmas Day. 

[dallas]

Yeah I think Wonka definitely wins December. Aquaman or TCP in 2nd place, depending on legs and WOM. 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, dallas said:

Yeah I think Wonka definitely wins December. Aquaman or TCP in 2nd place, depending on legs and WOM. 

Spoiler-Aquaman is not going to be #2

[dallas]

Just now, emoviefan said:

Spoiler-Aquaman is not going to be #2

Probably not. It's a stretch but maybe audiences will dig it. We'll see. I don't expect it to totally collapse. I'm still thinking $80-100M. 

[TwoMisfits]

2nd local  - non-PLF 12 set.  Very interesting set.  

 

NEW

Aquaman - 1.5 screens - no increase

Migration - 2 screens - this is a one screen increase - this theater, as non-PLF and slightly cheaper tickets, does open kid movies better, so that was obviously the play here

Anyone But You - 1 screen

Iron Claw - 1 screen

Salaar - 1 screen

Dunki - .75 screen

 

Holdovers - again, just the top 5

Wonka - only 1 screen - they are all in on animated

HG-Boss - 1 screen

Godzilla - 1 screen

Boy with Heron - .75 screen

Trolls - 1 screen

 

GONE

Renaissance, Wish, Shift, Napoleon, Animal, Hi Nanna

 

For CHRISTMAS

Color Purple - 2 screens - 1 full added

Ferrari - 1 screen (new booking)

 

GONE Dec 25

Trolls (Migration keeps 2 all week of Xmas, so this theater decided on just new animated), Godzilla, Boy with Heron - they are just getting the extra 3 days, and then only 2 holdovers make Xmas - Wonka and HG-Boss - the other theater keeps all 5 by not booking Ferrari, keeping Color Purple on 1.5 and dropping Godzilla and Trolls to .5 screens and stealing a few random shows.  So, the area is balancing the possible holdover market, but they are mostly getting killed. HG-Boss is the run away Nov winner...

Edited December 20, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[MovieMan89]

I wonder if Wish and Marvels fall 90%+ this weekend. Even 95%? Even Strange World collapsed 82% despite holding like 1500 theaters. How low screen count gonna go? 

[keysersoze123]

On 12/18/2023 at 5:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 157371/393245 1986805.97 2770 shows

12/26 - 41994/358197 534336.8 2496 shows

 

its more than a day(28 hrs ish worth of data), but this is something unprecedented. Probably still honing in on 20m OD unless final day walkups are not great. 

Color Purple MTC1

12/25 - 170819/531243 2151174.25 3722 shows +13448

12/26 - 46231/481053 589472.35 3308 shows +4237

 

Tons of shows added and its growing at a great clip. This is also around 26 hrs of data but it does not matter. Its just motoring on. it has 5 days of presales and then walkups. This is so unprecedented I am not sure on how high to go. But 20m is a good target at this point. Let us see if it can accelerate further in upcoming days. the delta in pace between 25th and 26th shows that day 2 is like a weekday for this movie :-)

[keysersoze123]

On 12/17/2023 at 1:27 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Migration MTC1

Previews - 4538/303573 63694.86 2096 shows

Friday - 5753/437135 76766.01 2955 shows

12/25 - 5925/425301 74393.33 2951 shows

 

2 days of pace. Just anemic. 

Migration MTC1

Previews - 6685/333697 92586.79 2361 shows +2147

Friday - 9449/547366 124777.87 3809 shows +3696

12/25 - 9008/499362 112911.82 3531 shows +3083

 

This 2  days plus 4 hours of data. This Friday should be like a summer friday as most schools should be off(both my kids have thursday as their final day). So Saturday increase minus previews will be limited compared to say Trolls or even Wonka. That said Christmas day should be the highest of the 4 and I am expecting Migration to even beat Aquaman on that day if reception for the later is as putrid as I am expecting :-)

[HummingLemon496]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Migration MTC1

Previews - 6685/333697 92586.79 2361 shows +2147

Friday - 9449/547366 124777.87 3809 shows +3696

12/25 - 9008/499362 112911.82 3531 shows +3083

 

This 2  days plus 4 hours of data. This Friday should be like a summer friday as most schools should be off(both my kids have thursday as their final day). So Saturday increase minus previews will be limited compared to say Trolls or even Wonka. That said Christmas day should be the highest of the 4 and I am expecting Migration to even beat Aquaman on that day if reception for the later is as putrid as I am expecting 🙂

How BAD are you expecting reception to be? Like 25% & B/B-?

[YM!]

52 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Migration MTC1

Previews - 6685/333697 92586.79 2361 shows +2147

Friday - 9449/547366 124777.87 3809 shows +3696

12/25 - 9008/499362 112911.82 3531 shows +3083

 

This 2  days plus 4 hours of data. This Friday should be like a summer friday as most schools should be off(both my kids have thursday as their final day). So Saturday increase minus previews will be limited compared to say Trolls or even Wonka. That said Christmas day should be the highest of the 4 and I am expecting Migration to even beat Aquaman on that day if reception for the later is as putrid as I am expecting 🙂

So what type of opening weekend is Migration looking at? O/U 10m?

[dallas]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

So what type of opening weekend is Migration looking at? O/U 10m?

I'm guessing under, but I could be wrong. 

[Relevation]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I wonder if Wish and Marvels fall 90%+ this weekend. Even 95%? Even Strange World collapsed 82% despite holding like 1500 theaters. How low screen count gonna go? 

Strange World released on Disney+ this weekend which way over-inflated the drop

Wish will have a normal holiday holdover drop and The Marvels will probably be out of theaters by next weekend

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, YM! said:

So what type of opening weekend is Migration looking at? O/U 10m?

low double digits for now. Let us see how next 2 days goes. 

[Unfitclock]

@keysersoze123 so what movies look like they’re selling the best on Christmas Day other than wonka and the color purple 

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 33763/528235 655138.89 2756 shows

Friday - 26172/773584 475594.72 4080 shows

 

Pace did go up but still not great. Somewhere in 3.5-4m range. 

Aquaman 2 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 37895/552971 729367.15 2966 shows +4132

Friday - 31340/846469 564832.42 4636 shows +5168

12/25 - 18020/672409 275708.18 3891 shows // few hours of update

 

Similar pace to Blue Beetle T-2 but that had a big acceleration on wednesday. But this movie is still ahead of BB. I would say mid point of my prediction from yesterday.  

[keysersoze123]

44 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@keysersoze123 so what movies look like they’re selling the best on Christmas Day other than wonka and the color purple 

Boy in the Boat looked good to me as well. Behind the Top 3 but looking good and I heard from other sources that its doing well at other places as well. Migration will do well as a family flick as well. Rest not so much.