The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[ViewerAnon]

2 minutes ago, TMP said:

Conversely - it being a Chalamet/Zendaya vehicle surely makes it no more geeky than most blockbusters, no? I feel like it’s broken through into the zeitgeist… we’ll see how it opens! Exciting times! 

 

I'm just a cynic but I don't think actors really draw audiences anymore. 

[leoh]

Kung Fu Panda 4 Long Range forecast:

30M-39M

 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-imaginary-and-kung-fu-panda-4/

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

I'm just a cynic but I don't think actors really draw audiences anymore. 

But large ensemble casts with multiple well known actors are (there are exceptions like Argylle)! It's one of the reasons for the success of the first film itself

[jeffthehat]

On 2/7/2024 at 3:16 PM, jeffthehat said:

MALCO 

 

Dune: Part Two T-22

 

TC	SHOWS	SALES	SEATS
25	54	563	9684

 

Comp

1.12x The Marvels T-22 (10 theaters) = $7.38m

 

MALCO

 

Dune: Part Two 

 

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows
Thu	-21	595	9684	54
Fri	-22	886	22401	129
Sat	-23	842	24240	138

 

Thu Comp
1.17x The Marvels T-21 (10 theaters) = $7.73m

---

 

Should note this chain has a lot of blocked seats counted as sales (3-4 per show I'd guess). So the Thu to Fri/Sat ratios are inflated. A like comparison is probably something like 595/630/550. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

FWIW, and to steal a phrase from @M37, to plant my flag, I do think D2 is gonna be at the upper end of the various projections being thrown about here, and I do think I am ultimately more bullish than M37 is.  That being said my cautious/conservative outlook on things is stopping me from issuing any hard and fast predictions, except to say I would be surprised if previews don't come in at double digits now, including EA.  

 

Double digit previews excluding EA?  Won't commit to that yet, but wouldn't surprise me, either.  Just feels like the clouds are gathering for a storm.  But feels and vibes only get one so far, so as I said, not completely ready to commit to a hard number. Nor the size of that storm.

I mean, $8-$8.5M Thursday (with $1.5-$2.0M Sun), an ~8x IM and would be ~$65-$70M OW in total. Also as a reminder, post pandemic there have been 5 previews to land between $9.5M (Eternals) and $11.6M (Venom 2), and then then only the 4pm start during COVID with Day & Date (so several asterisks) Black Widow at $13.3M until you reach Avatar and the glut of films at $17M+. Like the overall domestic total gap I keep talking about, there's just a void in the middle range for previews as well

Now I will concede the Sunday not-really-previews EA rolled in might help break through that glass ceiling, though IMO not by much

 

1 hour ago, iEnri said:

"Dune is too weird for the general audience" is the new "avatar doesn't have cultural inpact" in a smaller scale.

Going to push back on this comment in a big way. Its not that its too "weird", but that its a slower-paced, set in a created space world, fantasy film, NOT a big action flick, and that matters when trying to expand the audience pool

 

I'll remind everyone that the first Dune (albeit with a Day & Date release) was 61% Male and 55% White.  So for those who are still hoping for say a $90M+ OW, where is that increased audience coming from? Women? Non-white audience? Younger (was also 21% over 45, whereas Logan for example was 83% between 18 and 44)? Or to phrase it another way, can you point to another film at that level and say "this audience will also show up and help propel to higher numbers."

 

The semi-obvious retort is Oppenheimer ... but I really don't think sequel to a good WOM movie has the kind of social resonance that Barbenheimer phenomenon manifested. Nor does it have the nostalgia factor - plus military angle, and lets be real, cool fighter jets - of TGM.

 

So if it feels like I'm trying to constantly pump the breaks here, its because no matter high the presales climb over the next two weeks, I just don't think there will be a strong GA surge at the end. There's plenty of examples - Avatar 2, TGM, even NTTD - where these older & whiter audience films just don't have a strong finish

Spoiler

One advantage of my previous work experience is being on the ground and seeing who is coming to watch these movies. Now I often lack the communicative ability to really dissect the nuance of those audience compositions, but a lot of my comments related to expected growth rate/expected trajectory, PSM, etc are based in that demographic special sauce.

 

And I just don't think the late buying GA crowd - in any form - are going to show up here

 

Edited February 8 by M37

[TwoMisfits]

44 minutes ago, M37 said:

I mean, $8-$8.5M Thursday (with $1.5-$2.0M Sun), an ~8x IM and would be ~$65-$70M OW in total. Also as a reminder, post pandemic there have been 5 previews to land between $9.5M (Eternals) and $11.6M (Venom 2), and then then only the 4pm start during COVID with Day & Date (so several asterisks) Black Widow at $13.3M until you reach Avatar and the glut of films at $17M+. Like the overall domestic total gap I keep talking about, there's just a void in the middle range for previews as well

Now I will concede the Sunday not-really-previews EA rolled in might help break through that glass ceiling, though IMO not by much

 

Going to push back on this comment in a big way. Its not that its too "weird", but that its a slower-paced, set in a created space world, fantasy film, NOT a big action flick, and that matters when trying to expand the audience pool

 

I'll remind everyone that the first Dune (albeit with a Day & Date release) was 61% Male and 55% White.  So for those who are still hoping for say a $90M+ OW, where is that increased audience coming from? Women? Non-white audience? Younger (was also 21% over 45, whereas Logan for example was 83% between 18 and 44)? Or to phrase it another way, can you point to another film at that level and say "this audience will also show up and help propel to higher numbers."

 

The semi-obvious retort is Oppenheimer ... but I really don't think sequel to a good WOM movie has the kind of social resonance that Barbenheimer phenomenon manifested. Nor does it have the nostalgia factor - plus military angle, and lets be real, cool fighter jets - of TGM.

 

So if it feels like I'm trying to constantly pump the breaks here, its because no matter high the presales climb over the next two weeks, I just don't think there will be a strong GA surge at the end. There's plenty of examples - Avatar 2, TGM, even NTTD - where these older & whiter audience films just don't have a strong finish

  Hide contents

One advantage of my previous work experience is being on the ground and seeing who is coming to watch these movies. Now I often lack the communicative ability to really dissect the nuance of those audience compositions, but a lot of my comments related to expected growth rate/expected trajectory, PSM, etc are based in that demographic special sauce.

 

And I just don't think the late buying GA crowd - in any form - are going to show up here

 

 

Don't you love when "the kids" fight:).

 

https://variety.com/vip/data-dune-opening-weekend-hbo-max-viewership-topped-justice-league-in-the-heights-1235096964/

 

I think Dune 1, with the HBO Max streaming strategy and the COVID era, is SUCH an outlier that it can't be used to comp Dune 2.  It just can't.  If Dune 2 comes in close to Dune 1, it will be dumb luck, not reliance on the predecessor.

 

I mean, 1.9M+ "households" streamed Dune 1 just on opening weekend.  On top of the $41M DOM it made in theater.  Put 2 people per household, imagine those folks now know they have to wait 3-6 months to stream Dune 2, when it's the conclusion, and see how many still stay home.

 

I was not one of the 1.9M households, but I did eventually watch this one.  I admit, I would watch this one, but I'm on the fence, so I'll be one of the late buyers...or I won't.

 

I'm not the motivated, and I've got this in the running b/c of dearth of material for Feb...that matters, too - time and circumstance.  Dune 1 had terrible circumstances.  Dune 2 has ideal ones.

 

As I told Shawn, I would not sleep on this...and he's still too low.  Although I saw $50/$125M are gone this week and now it's $55/$138M...but the ceiling didn't change.

 

I guess it's baby steps:)...

[ViewerAnon]

51 minutes ago, M37 said:

The semi-obvious retort is Oppenheimer ... but I really don't think sequel to a good WOM movie has the kind of social resonance that Barbenheimer phenomenon manifested. Nor does it have the nostalgia factor - plus military angle, and lets be real, cool fighter jets - of TGM.

 

I think this is the biggest factor. TOP GUN: MAVERICK was a phenomenon and a ton of people saw it who hadn't seen or didn't remember TOP GUN. DUNE: PART TWO just doesn't feel - and hey, I could always be wrong, check back in a month - like a movie that's going to bring in people who didn't see or didn't like the first. Audiences know at this point whether DUNE is or isn't for them, so the movie's depending on audience growth from streamers who now pay for tickets and people who came to the first in the interim between movies.

 

How big is that audience? We'll see. Just based on personal feeling, an opening that's 75% higher due to sequel rush and a total around 50% higher due to those newly accounted ticket buyers sounds about right to me.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
833	12	1353	61.57%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

401

1794

22.35%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

339

1388

24.42%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1584	66	18464	8.58%	13	89

 

0.456

Thor L&T T-22

13.24M

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
848	15	1353	62.68%

 

Thursday Previews:

AMC Westminster 24

Total

407

1794

22.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

349

1388

25.14%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1621	37	18464	8.78%

 

2.688

Indiana Jones T-21

19.36M

0.442

Thor L&T T-21

12.83M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-22 Thursday

171 Showings

6696

+197

25483

ATP:

18.64

0.723

Thor L&T T-22

20.97M

 

T-23 Friday

246 Showings

7429

+232

36904

ATP:

18.04

1.139

Thor L&T T-23

46.18M

 

T-24 Saturday

261 Showings

8934

+239

39076

ATP:

17.49

1.530

Thor L&T T-24

64.42M

 

T-25 Sunday

238 Showings

5093

+222

35376

ATP:

17.66

1.838

Thor L&T T-25

59.73M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-21 Thursday

173 Showings

6924

+228

25671

ATP:

18.54

1.803

Indiana Jones T-21

12.98M

0.740

Thor L&T T-21

21.45M

 

T-22 Friday

247 Showings

7680

+251

36998

ATP:

18.00

2.393

Indiana Jones T-22

40.19M

1.130

Thor L&T T-22

45.84M

 

T-23 Saturday

261 Showings

9180

+246

39076

ATP:

17.47

2.955

Indiana Jones T-23

54.90M

1.523

Thor L&T T-23

64.12M

 

T-24 Sunday

238 Showings

5307

+214

35376

ATP:

17.66

3.355

Indiana Jones T-24

60.72M

1.853

Thor L&T T-24

60.22M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-22 Thursday

104 Showings

797

+41

17566

 

T-23 Friday

162 Showings

902

+43

27660

 

T-24 Saturday

168 Showings

846

+34

28816

 

T-25 Sunday

162 Showings

227

+14

27940

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-21 Thursday

104 Showings

825

+28

17566

1.097

Indiana Jones T-21

7.90M

 

T-22 Friday

162 Showings

950

+48

27661

5.017

Indiana Jones T-23

93.21M

 

T-23 Saturday

168 Showings

893

+47

28815

5.017

Indiana Jones T-23

93.21M

 

T-24 Sunday

162 Showings

241

+14

27939

3.394

Indiana Jones T-24

61.44M

[M37]

14 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I think Dune 1, with the HBO Max streaming strategy and the COVID era, is SUCH an outlier that it can't be used to comp Dune 2.  It just can't.  If Dune 2 comes in close to Dune 1, it will be dumb luck, not reliance on the predecessor.

 

I mean, 1.9M+ "households" streamed Dune 1 just on opening weekend.  On top of the $41M DOM it made in theater.  Put 2 people per household, imagine those folks now know they have to wait 3-6 months to stream Dune 2, when it's the conclusion, and see how many still stay home.

My assertion wasn’t that we’re going to be in the same ballpark admit/gross wise, but that the home audience wasn’t of a significantly different demo composition. So more will see Part II in theaters, but it’s not expanding beyond that type of audience. If so, the ceiling on potential is lower, and it’s more likely that stronger sales so far are reflection of that typically earlier pre-buy audience, and not the start of building wave 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

My assertion wasn’t that we’re going to be in the same ballpark admit/gross wise, but that the home audience wasn’t of a significantly different demo composition. So more will see Part II in theaters, but it’s not expanding beyond that type of audience. If so, the ceiling on potential is lower, and it’s more likely that stronger sales so far are reflection of that typically earlier pre-buy audience, and not the start of building wave 

 

Top Gun 2 from Deadline...

"Updated demos are 58% guys, 42% women. The under-35 repped 45%, which is promising, considering that the sequel is appealing to a wider demo. Those over 35 repped 55%, while the 18-34 segment repped 37% of attendance. Diversity demos were 66% Caucasian, 16% Latino and Hispanic, 7% African American, and 7% Asian.

Close to half of the audience said Top Gun 2 exceeded expectations, while another 30% said they would see it again in theaters." 

 

I don't think Dune 2 is gonna skew this hard...but I point out...if you skew strongest to Caucasian and get them in a wave, particularly one where they want to see your movie again and again...ummmm, HUGE numbers are possible OW and in the run.

 

Ask Taylor Swift - she didn't even need the men in that demo...

 

Caucasian folks, particularly 25+, stayed home in 2021 b/c they all paid for streaming.  Top Gun 2 showed they were back...

[ringedmortality]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

There's plenty of examples - Avatar 2, TGM, even NTTD - where these older & whiter audience films just don't have a strong finish

 

700M+ gross for Dune 2 confirmed

[dallas]

It's Deadline so the $65M is definitely a lowball. I think $75-80M is more likely, but maybe I'm too optimistic. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	4015	104695	3.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

99

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1722

*33 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(1.510x) of Oppenheimer $15.86M 

(1.012x) of Indy 5 $7.29M 

(2.340x) of Wonka $8.19M 

(2.199x) of Aquaman 2 $9.89M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.30M

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
554	4273	104695	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

258

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1777

*55 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(1.573x) of Oppenheimer $16.51M 

(1.026x) of Indy 5 $7.39M 

(2.405x) of Wonka $8.42M 

(2.238x) of Aquaman 2 $10.07M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.60M

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	3834	93918	4.1%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

167

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

977

*73 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.025x) of Blue Beetle $3.38M 

(0.893x) of AquaMan 2 $4.02M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.70M

FLORIDA 

 

MADAME WEB

 

Wednesday

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
486	4060	93918	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

226

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

1046

*69 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.067x) of Blue Beetle $3.52M 

(0.905x) of AquaMan 2 $4.07M 

 

COMP AVG: $3.80M

 

Continuously rising against comps 

[M37]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Top Gun 2 from Deadline...

"Updated demos are 58% guys, 42% women. The under-35 repped 45%, which is promising, considering that the sequel is appealing to a wider demo. Those over 35 repped 55%, while the 18-34 segment repped 37% of attendance. Diversity demos were 66% Caucasian, 16% Latino and Hispanic, 7% African American, and 7% Asian.

Close to half of the audience said Top Gun 2 exceeded expectations, while another 30% said they would see it again in theaters." 

 

I don't think Dune 2 is gonna skew this hard...but I point out...if you skew strongest to Caucasian and get them in a wave, particularly one where they want to see your movie again and again...ummmm, HUGE numbers are possible OW and in the run.

 

Ask Taylor Swift - she didn't even need the men in that demo...

 

Caucasian folks, particularly 25+, stayed home in 2021 b/c they all paid for streaming.  Top Gun 2 showed they were back...

Sure, if you can catch lighting in a bottle, then everything is great! But I don’t think the multiplexs in middle America are going to be nearly into Dune II as TGM, which is where that older audience really ballooned 

 

Also, circling back to tracking, TGM had one of the lowest growth rate multis from T-14/T-7 of any non-CBM because, that mature audience buys early. Those comps are going to come down pretty quick as TGM runs through its first week of sales, and I’m very curious where they land around T-14 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Don't you love when "the kids" fight:).

 

I mean, if you're talking about me and @M37, I'd say it's more "respectful disagreement".  😉  

 

And even then, I know far better than to argue with him about data and historical patterns.  Indeed I even left a like on his post as it was well reasoned and argued.  

 

Ultimately, I think this is just a disagreement about how much the GA is gonna care about this film.  I'm higher on the poten... No, strike that.  I suspect I think the chances of Dune: Part Two of realizing its potential are higher than either M37 or @ViewerAnon thinks.  

 

But because OG Dune was released in such unusual circumstances, and because this has such a long pre-sale window (wrecking havoc with many potential comps) and because it's somewhat unique in straddling the line between drier high brow SciFi and more action-adventure GA appeal SciFi, I think historical based comparisons only go so far.  Or rather, I personally think the jury is still out on just how much the GA is gonna care.

 

Now my caution in my post a couple of hours ago notwithstanding (just got back in now which is why I'm responding now), I do think we're gonna get some "tells"/tea leaves to read over the next eight days or so.  But tells and tea leaves are still all they are likely to be.  

Edited February 9 by Porthos

[dallas]

Personally, I think Dune 2 will have a lot more pull with younger audiences than the first did mostly due to the rise in popularity of Timothee Chalamet, Zendaya, Florence Pugh, and Austin Butler. 

[elhassane31]

5 hours ago, leoh said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 Long Range forecast:

30M-39M

 

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-imaginary-and-kung-fu-panda-4/

Seems in line with the third movie on the high-end, which had a 143m domestic finish and a 41m domestic opening weekend. China brought to Universal 150m of its global 521m gross.

Conclusion? this will probably have to rely heavily on China to break the 500m mark on global. I think even with China getting cold feet on it, it will have a good enough gross from it to reach 400m global, provided movie has good word of mouth and keeps up in quality with the rest of the movie franchise.

Edited February 9 by elhassane31