The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[leoh]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Think DPvW is next 100M opener, that will be longest gap between two 100M opener since first Spiderman and Matrix in 2003.

 

For the sake of this I am considering those mid-week opener which would have opened to 100M if they were 3 day weekend as 100M opener. Like say Spiderman 2 or some Transformers films.

I can’t agree.

I truly think that Despicable Me has plenty of chances to hit 100M+ OW. Plus it is a franchise way more successful than Deadpool, although I also agree Deadpool will hit 100M+ opening weekend.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 29 by leoh

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/26/2024 at 6:07 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Chosen S4, Eps 7-8 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	27	19	197	2366	8.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		84	15	42.64
Marcus:		63	2	31.98
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		50	2	25.38

 

Comps:

0.8x Chosen S4, Eps 4-6: $625k

0.33x Chosen S4, Eps 1-3: $470k

1.04x After Death: $415k

1.46x The Shift: $545k

 

Average: $515k

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Chosen S4, Eps 7-8 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 16 theaters	30	63	260	2516	10.33

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		110	26	42.31
Marcus:		83	20	31.92
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		67	17	25.77

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	N/A
3-Day:	46.07

 

Comps (3-day growth rate in parentheses):

0.88x Chosen S4, Eps 4-6: $685k (41%)

0.37x Chosen S4, Eps 1-3: $525k (33%)

1.05x After Death: $420k (45%)

1.46x The Shift: $545k (23%)

 

Average: $545k

 

Don't forget this comes out tomorrow too! I'll go with $600k, +/- 50

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/21/2024 at 5:27 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Let's go with $375k, +/- 25. Big margin of error with these smaller releases though.

 

13 hours ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Friendly heads up to those keeping track: Drive-Away Dolls' preview gross has been updated (studio reported) as $350K. (I think some outlets had it over $400-450K last week.)

 

 

Yay :)) Thanks Shawn, you're da best!!

[leoh]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

When/if Dune 2 doesn't hit 200 we aren't getting a 200m domestic grosser until Inside Out 2....that is woof. I had fun being optimistic for a few weeks and making some nice posts about all the breakout little hits but I feel the old Clay coming back!!

 

(Edit: to be clear this is still much higher than I predicted for Dune 2, it's the state of the year that I'm cynical about)

I don’t agree.

 

Bad Boys 4 can def hit 200M+ at the domestic box office.

 

Planet of Apes and Garfield also have a good chance.

 

it is summer, you have way more money in the box office than at the binging of the year.

Edited February 29 by leoh

[emoviefan]

 Can't wait till  May  when people are shocked  how well The Fall Guy does. 

[charlie Jatinder]

24 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I'm very bullish on Inside out 2 and think there's going to be a lot of pent of hype for a strong Disney animated IP. Would not be shocked with something like $120M+ 

Ideally IO2 should be doing 150+, D&W should be 200-250 but things are going bad for Disney so not too hopeful. GOTG3 was potential 200 opener, crapped the bed with sub 120.

[HummingLemon496]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Ideally IO2 should be doing 150+, D&W should be 200-250 but things are going bad for Disney so not too hopeful. GOTG3 was potential 200 opener, crapped the bed with sub 120.

Of course it did. . .

 

Spoiler

in the alternate universe where it came out in May 2022  @Legion Again

 

 

 

Edited February 29 by HummingLemon496

[Cmasterclay]

I actually do think Garfield has a 200m domestic shot. Fall Guy could do nice enough but when was the last time a movie like that broke out THAT much? Also wasn't everyone saying how great Bullet Train was before release, and then it stunk? At this point I don't have Apes making 100m domestic, and Bad Boys seems a cinch lock to drop from last one without the pent up demand and nostalgia.

[dallas]

I think The Fall Guy is gonna be big. I'd say folks are underestimating that one. 

[lorddemaxus]

I don't see why Fall Guy would do better than stuff Bullet Train or Free Guy. Original action comedies seem to have a ceiling (and based on Argylle, no floor). Dont see it going over $100mil DOM/$300 mil WW unless it has great WoM.

Edited February 29 by lorddemaxus

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Fall Guy having nearly 2 months of presales is bizarre.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, dallas said:

The good news is that presales throughout the entire weekend are strong enough that $80M remains a possibility. 

This is what seems weird to me. The pattern for previews sales has been following some more frontloaded franchises, which would suggest Dune 2 maybe won’t go much beyond it’s more excited core fandom. 
 

Still, usually frontloaded franchises sales are clearly more previews / FRI heavy, but from what i see, Dune does have very solid sales spreading though the entire weekend.

Of course PFL screens should be a good explanation for this, getting the best quality is important for many people, but it’s probably not the only explanation.

Any idea how the late shows for previews are doing compared to earlier shows? It crossed my mind that maybe the really long running time (166 minutes + previews and trailers) could be slightly hurting the sales for THU while boosting sales through the weekend. 
 

But yes overall i agreed, seems balanced enough that even if it does 10M or slightly less it still can try 80M OW including EA.

 

[Cmasterclay]

11 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This is what seems weird to me. The pattern for previews sales has been following some more frontloaded franchises, which would suggest Dune 2 maybe won’t go much beyond it’s more excited core fandom. 
 

Still, usually frontloaded franchises sales are clearly more previews / FRI heavy, but from what i see, Dune does have very solid sales spreading though the entire weekend.

Of course PFL screens should be a good explanation for this, getting the best quality is important for many people, but it’s probably not the only explanation.

Any idea how the late shows for previews are doing compared to earlier shows? It crossed my mind that maybe the really long running time (166 minutes + previews and trailers) could be slightly hurting the sales for THU while boosting sales through the weekend. 
 

But yes overall i agreed, seems balanced enough that even if it does 10M or slightly less it still can try 80M OW including EA.

 

I think it's because it's long as hell and there's no holiday this Thursday/Friday, so pretty much any non-fans are waiting until the weekend days.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 111558/692847 2099044.18 3883 shows +11766

Friday - 134746/1146427 2490641.68 6436 shows +18504
Saturday - 142386/1178885 2518308.16 6614 shows +20975

 

Big jump in show count and definitely the presales yesterday benefited from Sunday shows WOM. Thursday sales dropped 12% from yesterday which is meh. Let us see how next 2 day goes. 

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 125368/701741 2333105.70 3942 shows +13810

Friday - 154760/1157762 2825004.46 6506 shows +20014

Saturday - 164927/1206487 2881342.67 6794 shows +22541 

 

Another meh day. its targeting around 9ish for thursday at this point. Let us see how walkups go as there are no capacity constraints. 

[HummingLemon496]

Please please please just let dune have a $10M flat Thursday + $2M EA 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Two graphs.

One is absolute daily change of Dune 2, Avatar 2 and Oppy in MTC 1 and another is % of daily pace of Dune 2 against Avatar 2 & Oppy.

Updated:

 

[ando]

Dune: Part Two T-1

 

Toronto Scotiabank (IMAX only)

 

4510/6120 tickets sold (+170 since T-2) 74% sold out

 

Thu- 893 (+39)

Fri- 1172 (+52)

Sat- 1258 (+33)

Sun- 1187 (+46)

 

Pretty great spread through the weekend. Sunday selling more than Friday. 

Edited February 29 by ando

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 125368/701741 2333105.70 3942 shows +13810

Friday - 154760/1157762 2825004.46 6506 shows +20014

Saturday - 164927/1206487 2881342.67 6794 shows +22541 

 

Another meh day. its targeting around 9ish for thursday at this point. Let us see how walkups go as there are no capacity constraints. 

SAT is relatively doing better than FRI but its also more to FRI being low. Korea had bad walkups, which is at times a sign for DOM as well. Sub $70M is a possibility now. What a roller coster ride in last 4 days.

[Cmasterclay]

Jesus, from talking about 100m to talking under 70m since Monday is pretty wild.

[leoh]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

SAT is relatively doing better than FRI but its also more to FRI being low. Korea had bad walkups, which is at times a sign for DOM as well. Sub $70M is a possibility now. What a roller coster ride in last 4 days.

 

Deadline says Warner Bros is projecting it to make 65M+…

 

Ikr “it’s low ball”, but still when studio “low ball” is 65M there’s no reason to keep insisting in over 80M/90M like some people are doing.

 

Theaters said to Deadline they were still expecting something closer to 80M. However this is more of a hope than a projection given the terrible first two months theaters had this year. Last Friday even a Japanese TV series anime got number 1 spot at our domestic box office.

Edited February 29 by leoh