The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Joyous Legion]

HummingLemon pulling zaslav's strings

[dallas]

6 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

HummingLemon pulling zaslav's strings

Next WB is going to change the numbers so that it hits a perfect 7.0x multiplier

[Porthos]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm-4:25pm]

NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:50 were sampled at the start of their showing.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	250	25311	31312	6001	19.17%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	6
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	429
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	607

 

T-0 "Anchor" Comps [ALL COMPS *INCLUDE* EA SALES]

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune [5:10-5:30]	205.87		524	2915		0/109	11878/14793	19.71%		2915	205.87%		10.50m
Ava 2 [3:50-4:25]	66.78		1079	8986		0/310	26049/35035	25.65%		8986	66.78%		11.35m
Oppy [4:30-4:40]	129.86		547	4621		2/80	6238/10859	42.55%		4621	129.86%		13.64m

 

T-0 Mostly Pace Purposes Comps [ALL COMPS *INCLUDE* EA SALES - UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED]

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats [3:00-4:30]	51.04		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	51.04%		12.46m
Thor4 [3:45-4:35]	35.38		2056	16962		0/320	23111/40073	42.33%		16962	35.38%		10.26m
BP2 [3:45-4:35]	35.72		2053	16800		2/376	26426/43216	38.87%		16800	35.72%		10.00m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	57.29		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	57.29%		10.03m
Flash [3:55-4:20]	112.65		1076	5327		0/205	21645/26972	19.75%		5327	112.65%		10.93m
GOTG3[3:45-4:30]	55.82		1551	10750		0/347	31169/41919	25.64%		10750	55.82%		9.77m
TGM [3:30-4:35]	52.30		1111	11474		2/345	31538/43012	26.68%		11474	52.30%		10.07m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	54.72		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	54.72%		9.85m
Wick 4 [3:50-4:15]	110.15		1103	5448		0/186	17238/22686	24.01%		5448	110.15%		9.80m
Fast X [3:50-4:15]	145.58		717	4122		0/243	29125/33247	12.40%		4122	145.58%		10.92m
TLM [3:50-4:15]	91.46		958	6561		0/235	23202/29763	22.04%		6561	91.46%		9.42m
Indy 5 [3:50-4:20]	125.89		784	4767		0/183	20009/24776	19.24%		4767	125.89%		9.06m
AtSV [3:50-4:20]	61.59		1676	9744		0/266	22261/32005	30.45%		9744	61.59%		10.69m
Indy 5 [3:50-4:20]	125.89		784	4767		0/183	20009/24776	19.24%		4767	125.89%		9.06m
Bats Tue EA	106.19		——	743		0/3	72/815	91.17%		743	106.19%		2.12m

THE BATMAN EA NOTE:  "Bats Tue EA T-x" is a direct comp of the IMAX theaters which had the exclusive IMAX ONLY showings for The Batman on the Tuesday of release week and are showing the IMAX exclusives for Dune: Part Two on the Sunday of release week.  I am using the estimated 2m reported by the Trades and Box Office Pro for the comp.

 

Regal:      1580/9860  [16.02% sold]
Matinee:    380/3555  [10.69% | 6.33% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:                789/814  [96.93% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:          5212/30498  [17.09% sold] [+991 tickets]
PLF:          3753/10865 [34.54% | 62.54% of all tickets sold]
Thr PLF:    2964/10051 [29.49% sold | 56.87% of Thr tickets sold]

 

====

 

No sense sugar coating it; fairly anemic/blah walkups.  FWIW, the *ATP adjusted* comp for Dune (using my home adjustment of 1.13047x) spits out 11.87m (including EA).  Combine that with the comps for Ava 2 and The Batman and I think Sacramento is probably pointing to around 11.75m combined EA and Thursday.  There is the Oppenheimer comp, but that ran into severe capacity issues locally. And that is most certainly not the case here.
 

I keep looking at that The Batman comp and I keep going "hmmmm..."  On the other hand, DC tends to under-perform locally.

 

Still, I know it's on the higher side of reported locals, though I have seen some in this range, but gonna go with what my best comps tell me and go with a combined 11.75m +/-.6m (2m +/- .1m EA | 9.75m +/- .5m Thur).

 

Only reason I'm going with 9.75m Thr is the PLF factor and the ATP adjustment for Dune lands right in that area.

 

Now we wait and see the results.

******VICTORY DANCE********

... 

AH WHAT THE HELL POST THE WHOLE GOD DAMN VID DANCE!!!!!

 

(rounding?  What rounding???)

 

 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I remember Zack added more cinemas during either DS2 or Thor. Not sure if you were covering them before he started tracking or not.

Dont know for sure. I did add at some point but that was probably before Afterlife opened. 

[charlie Jatinder]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

******VICTORY DANCE********

... 

AH WHAT THE HELL POST THE WHOLE GOD DAMN VID DANCE!!!!!

 

(rounding?  What rounding???)

 

 

As I have said in past. It doesn't matter what actuals are. Studio gonna just give what Porthos gonna declare.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

As I have said in past. It doesn't matter what actuals are. Studio gonna just give what Porthos gonna declare.

 

Just have to casually mention that my main enforcer partner-in-crime @MrPink might show up to their next social with his crew, and things just seem to fall into place!

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

My suspicion is that while this feels like an outlier, that we may see more cases like this going forward.

 

I think Oppenheimer did a lot to convince people that you need to go IMAX or bust for certain films. Dune is probably one of the bigger cases, but, I think any film that's targeting people on big visuals is going to have this issue. People will push for the format, and delay watching rather than watch substandard.

 

If Oppenheimer didn't get that Barbie crossover, it probably would have seen a similar fate, and the next Nolan film might get the same.

 

The two upcoming films to watch for is Furiosa and POTA. Films that are highly visual, and mature franchises that probably aren't expanding the fan base. Neither film likely demands people to see it right away to avoid spoilers like a Marvel film might, so people will be selective on formats.

I'm confused by this, though. Wasn't Oppenheimer sold out in standard theaters its opening week? Dune Part 2 hasn't been having any capacity issues, to my knowledge.

[leoh]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

There were brief reports of $11M before WB came out and "officially" called it $12, and .... yeah, the $12M does feel like a round up to me, perhaps by a decent amount.  Not sure why WB would do that, very few people would care about the distinction between those two values, and like Charlie said its all going to wind up in the Friday total anyway.

 

But personally I'm going to be putting an asterisk there and probably using a lower number for comp purposes moving forward. [Number TBD after seeing Fri & Sat values]

 

 

 

It’s surely round up.

 

But it’s like @charlie Jatinder said previews will be added as part of opening day and so they can simply adjust it.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 1 by leoh

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ghostbusters: FE	T-20	Jax	5	56	63	63	8,681	0.73%
		Phx	6	49	68	68	8,582	0.79%
		Ral	8	36	75	75	5,244	1.43%
	Total		19	141	206	206	22,507	0.92%

 

Day 1 comps

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - .884x (3.67m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .684x (3.83m)

 - Eternals - .27x (2.56m)

 - Shang-Chi - .355x (3.13m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.515x (5.15m)

[Porthos]

catching up on posts from overnight...

 

59 minutes ago, M37 said:

There were brief reports of $11M before WB came out and "officially" called it $12, and .... yeah, the $12M does feel like a round up to me, perhaps by a decent amount.  Not sure why WB would do that, very few people would care about the distinction between those two values, and like Charlie said its all going to wind up in the Friday total anyway.

 

But personally I'm going to be putting an asterisk there and probably using a lower number for comp purposes moving forward. [Number TBD after seeing Fri & Sat values]

 

 

Spoiler

No, I don't really think that

 

Spoiler

I did mention rounding as a possibility in a post

 

Spoiler

is super weird though, I agree

 

 

 

 

Edited March 1 by Porthos

[JustLurking]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

As I have said in past. It doesn't matter what actuals are. Studio gonna just give what Porthos gonna declare.

Has anyone seen Porthos and Zaslav in the same room? No? Well well well...

[Bob Train]

10 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

I'm confused by this, though. Wasn't Oppenheimer sold out in standard theaters its opening week? Dune Part 2 hasn't been having any capacity issues, to my knowledge.

In key IMAXes that are generating the most revenue it is selling out, like Lincoln Square, Metreon, etc.

 

In most other markets there is plenty of space.

 

 

[misterpepp]

On 2/28/2024 at 9:05 PM, misterpepp said:

Fall Guy tix on sale March 12

Early Access shows will play on May 1.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Has anyone seen Porthos and Zaslav in the same room? No? Well well well...

 

Now now, no need to get insulting here! 

 

...

 

I prefer to think of it as him owing me a solid after Sacto Barbenheimer projections SPECTACULARLY missed the mark. 

[von Kenni]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Based on nos. I am seeing its 2-2.1 + 9-9.1 = 11-11.2. There is MTC 1 actuals that are pending, which will get clarified by tomorrow morning.

Either WB messed up something or there were some other shows. I don't have info on MTC1 but on Wed $25K is there, may be MTC 1 had more shows.

 

Can there be some ATP related mishap here to explain the suggested actuals?

[Wotad]

34 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

It’s surely round up.

 

But it’s like @charlie Jatinder previews will be added as part of opening day and so they can simply adjust it.

 

 

 

 

 

Why are people assuming they messed with the numbers when we have seen numbers go up similarly before? Seems weird that people are throwing these accusations out without any proof. 

Deadline numbers are always wrong and are a preview not a report on actual numbers, it went up from the reported number of 11m to the actual 12m.. I dont see the issue? 

Edited March 1 by Wotad

[rehpyc]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Definitely some rounding happened and Dune did have late shows that could have added more than say other comps. Still dont see 12m for sure unless MTC2 and Canada etc over performed big time. Did @rehpyc update from his end?

Happy to take the win on the 10M estimate, but I do feel there's a bit of play with the numbers going on. Would figure more of a 9.7M - 9.8M, unless Canada just happened to over index on this one.

[von Kenni]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

So happy after this emotional ride...

 

[jeffthehat]

On 2/29/2024 at 11:50 AM, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-0	2205	11737	66	+20.1%

Thursday Comps

1.82x The Marvels T-0= $12.0m

1.86x HG BoSS T-0 = $10.7m

4.19x Wonka T-0 = $14.6m

2.82x FNaF T-0 = $29.1m*

0.19x T-Swift Eras Fri T-0 = $8.3m / $4.98m ATP adjusted (-40%)**

*two-day presales window

** just guessing on ATP adjustment

---

Gonna overindex here. But I'm reading it as a positive sign, as this chain is mostly tiny cities in the South. A lot of markets are pointing to sub-$10m at finish, but also seeing a lot of $11m+. Truth is probably in the middle, so I'll go $10.1m +/- 0.4m today. 

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows
Fri	T-0	4572	31153	201

Friday Comps

2.18x Wonka T-0 = $23.8m

1.31x HG BoSS T-0 = $17.4m

1.77x Marvels T-0 = $26.7m

1.001x FNaF T-0 = $29.3m

0.49x T-Swift Eras T-0 = $17.12m / $10.3m ATP adjusted (-40%)*

2.07x Dune 2 Thu T-0 = $19.3-$20.9m**

*just guessing ATP adjustment

**using $9.3m-$10.1m for Thu previews 

 

AVG = $21.3m

---

Gonna be really damn annoying if studios make a habit of rounding up previews 10%. But shoutout to Zaz for briefly making me seem smart 

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, Wotad said:

Why are people assuming they messed with the numbers when we have seen numbers go up similarly before? Seems weird that people are throwing these accusations out without any proof. 

Deadline numbers are always wrong and are a preview not a report on actual numbers, it went up from the reported number of 11m to the actual 12m.. I dont see the issue? 

I mean they round up numbers, it’s not a unfair thinking. 
 

But a full million is probably a bit too much for such a low figure (compared to things like SW).

ATP probably push it from 9M (without EA) to 9.6-9.7 or something and they just decided to make it 10. It won’t matter much for the weekend, they can just fix it later with Friday numbers.