The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

Soooo...  I don't know who wants to hear this, but Garfield did... pretty decently on its D1 locally, all things considered.

 

And it wasn't even thanks to an EA boost as the lone EA showing up so far has sold exactly one ticket so far.

 

Considering the extreme backloaded nature of the genre + at least some upfront interest due to the Name Brand, not gonna do any comps.  Yet.

 

But I will provide some contrasts:

 

Garfield         60 tickets sold on Day 1 (EA: 1 ticket sold) [T-31]

----------------------------------

Sonic 2:        182 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-24]

Minions 2 :     67 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-24] Yes Yes, "let reddit know about this immediately"

Nope:             57 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-42]

Elemental:      37 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-30]

Wonka:           57 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-29]

Mean Girls:    52 tickets sold on Day 1 [T-29]

 

Don't think I kept Wish's info anywhere on this thread, and that had that weird unannounced pre-sale window that had a smattering of tickets.  Plus that had Discount Tuesday anyway, so meh.

 

Either way, a decent enough start.  Won't really know where this is headed for a while, thanks to the nature of the genre.  But I am... let's say monitoring it.  Just in case.

 

Edited April 23 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Isn't Garfield opening May 24? So it should be  T-31?

Edited April 23 by charlie Jatinder

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-11, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 18

New Sales since T-13: 3

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.5

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/6

Late Evening: 3/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 13/6

IMAX: 2/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 46

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.693x Wonka for $2.4M

0.327x GB:FE for $1.5M

0.107x GxK for $1.1M

0.136x HG:BoSS for $0.8M

Avg: $1.5M

 

Comps (includes EA)

2.462x Wonka for $8.6M

1.164x GB:FE for $5.5M

0.379x GxK for $3.8M

0.485x HG:BoSS for $2.8M

AVG: $5.2M

 

A little bit of movement coming out of the weekend. Hopefully it's the start of something.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-10, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 20

New Sales since T-13: 2

Growth: 11%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 15/6

Late Evening: 5/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 13/6

IMAX: 2/4

4DX: 5/2

 

EA sales

Total: 46

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

0.556x Wonka for $2.4M

0.357x GB:FE for $1.7M

0.110x GxK for $1.1M

0.136x HG:BoSS for $0.8M

Avg: $1.5M

 

Comps (includes EA)

1.833x Wonka for $6.4M

1.179x GB:FE for $5.5M

0.365x GxK for $3.6M

0.446x HG:BoSS for $2.6M

AVG: $4.6M

 

Still crawling along slowly 

[Porthos]

49 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Isn't Garfield opening May 24? So it should be  T-31?

 

It's preview night is the 23rd, but yeah my bad.  Lemme fix the post.

 

(that actually makes the start slightly better.  Well, probably.  Maybe.  At least a little)

Edited April 23 by Porthos

[vafrow]

The Garfield Movie, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-31, Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 0

New Sales: NA

Growth: NA

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 14

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.0

Ticket premium in effect: No

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 0/3

Early Evening: 0/5

Late Evening: 0/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 0/4

3D Regular: 0/6

Dolby: 0/2

3D Dolby: 0/2

 

No sales on Garfield. Kung Fu Panda 4 sold 4 tickets on its first day.

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Challengers MTC1

Early Shows(4/22) final - 18092/62617 373746.58 263 shows +3377

Previews(T-3) - 14715/272266 288951.39 1540 shows +3000

Friday - 14722/428870 278017.78 2375 shows +3665

 

Good for sure. Early Shows will skew MTC1 big time(looking at MTC2, gross wont be that much). I am thinking 550-600K for early shows. Previews should accelerate tomorrow if WOM from early shows is good. Thinking 2.5m+ previews including early shows and 20m ish OW.  

 

$5 tickets are live...but remember, they tend to help Friday and Saturday more than Thursday, b/c if it's $5 anytime, why not go on a weekend night:)...

[justnumbers]

Hoping for 20M for Challengers and 40M for The Fall Guy. I could live with a 30s opening but I think 40M would really be the definitive win. 

Edited April 23 by justnumbers

[JonathanMB]

17 hours ago, AniNate said:

I can't say I'm all that encouraged by sales at my midwestern theater, hopefully the big urban areas pick up the slack

 

I suppose one does have to temper their expectations with a Luca movie but man, theaters look like they're gonna be dead this weekend

 

I'm out in the western suburbs of Chicago and do unofficial checks in my area to get a vibe on how a movie is selling, and it's pretty low so far at the AMCs near me, but in Chicago itself it's selling stupid-well, with several Thursday and even Friday evening shows already 50%+ full. So it seems like there will be a bit of a divide in those markets for this. Hopefully good WOM spreads and helps give the suburbs a bump at some point?

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boy Kills World	T-3	Jax	5	11	6	11	667	1.65%
		Phx	5	7	0	10	792	1.26%
		Ral	6	7	0	1	530	0.19%
	Total		16	25	6	22	1,989	1.11%
Challengers	T-3	Jax	5	19	5	26	3,641	0.71%
		Phx	6	17	4	56	2,336	2.40%
		Ral	8	18	15	42	2,582	1.63%
	Total		19	54	24	124	8,559	1.45%
Challengers (EA)	T-0	Jax	5	5	21	52	1,392	3.74%
		Phx	1	1	3	32	208	15.38%
		Ral	2	2	4	26	412	6.31%
	Total		8	8	28	110	2,012	5.47%
Unsung Hero	T-3	Jax	5	9	10	58	1,073	5.41%
		Phx	5	10	5	25	1,992	1.26%
		Ral	8	12	17	55	1,188	4.63%
	Total		18	31	32	138	4,253	3.24%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-2	Jax	5	7	3	218	865	25.20%
		Phx	6	10	5	325	1,017	31.96%
		Ral	8	9	1	284	839	33.85%
	Total		19	26	9	827	2,721	30.39%

*New shows since Saturday

 

Unsung Hero (Total) T-3 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .648x (2.14m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .458x (2.38m)

 - Left Behind - 3.683x (2.25m)

 - Downton Abbey - 1.085x (2m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.19m

 

Challengers (Total) T-3 comps

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.17x (874k)

 - Elvis (Total) - missed

 - Creed III (Total) - .302x (1.35m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .515x (1.71m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 1.05x (1.05m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.21x (1.33m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.57x (1.73m)

 - Gran Turismo (Total) - 1.463x (1.68m)

 - No Hard Feelings (Total) - missed

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.35m

 

Boy Kills World T-3 comps

 - Vengeance - .815x

 - Bones and All - .55x (194k)

 - Reminiscence - .595x (351k)

 - Fabelmans - 1x (408k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boy Kills World	T-2	Jax	5	11	2	13	667	1.95%
		Phx	6	9	3	13	934	1.39%
		Ral	6	7	0	1	530	0.19%
	Total		17	27	5	27	2,131	1.27%
Challengers	T-2	Jax	5	21	9	35	4,051	0.86%
		Phx	7	22	41	97	2,784	3.48%
		Ral	8	18	10	52	2,582	2.01%
	Total		20	61	60	184	9,417	1.95%
Unsung Hero	T-2	Jax	5	11	0	58	1,249	4.64%
		Phx	6	12	3	28	2,046	1.37%
		Ral	8	14	-3	52	1,318	3.95%
	Total		19	37	0	138	4,613	2.99%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-1	Jax	5	8	-3	215	928	23.17%
		Phx	6	10	0	325	1,017	31.96%
		Ral	8	9	4	288	839	34.33%
	Total		19	27	1	828	2,784	29.74%

 

Unsung Hero (Total) T-2 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .621x (2.05m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .396x (2.06m)

 - Left Behind - 3.06x (1.87m)

 - Downton Abbey - .953x (1.76m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 1.92m

 

This hasn't shown any growth over the past few days (+4% since Friday).  

 

Challengers T-2 comps*

 - I Wanna Dance - .7x (617k)

 - Elvis - .248x (957k)

 - Creed III - .292x (1.3m)

 - Lost City - .527x (1.59m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - .684x (807k)

 - Joy Ride - 3.407x (3.62m)

 - Strays - 1.57x (1.53m)

 - Gran Turismo - .852x (1.19m)

 - No Hard Feelings - 1.278x (2.79m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.54m

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Challengers	84.00%	30.00%	34.29%	48.39%
I Wanna Dance	53.80%	28.65%	14.75%	31.50%
Elvis	78.18%	23.74%	-	-
Creed III	64.92%	30.63%	-	17.54%
Lost City	63.85%	21.13%	9.52%	27.84%
Magic Mike 3	65.03%	39.26%	32.32%	20.63%
Joy Ride	20.00%	20.00%	30.56%	-1.82%
Strays	58.11%	24.32%	7.14%	13.59%
Gran Turismo	84.62%	76.07%	-	35.00%
No Hard Feelings	161.82%	67.27%	-	58.24%

 

*Switched to straight preview comps

 

Boy Kills World T-2 comps

 - Vengeance - .563x

 - Bones and All - .5x (177k)

 - Reminiscence - .587x (347k)

 - Fabelmans - .794x (324k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-10	Jax	6	36	0	18	6,208	0.29%
		Phx	6	19	9	45	3,556	1.27%
		Ral	8	29	5	48	4,195	1.14%
	Total		20	84	14	111	13,959	0.80%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-9	Jax	5	10	6	41	2,007	2.04%
		Phx	1	2	0	18	618	2.91%
		Ral	2	2	2	19	412	4.61%
	Total		8	14	8	78	3,037	2.57%
Tarot	T-10	Jax	5	21	0	4	1,752	0.23%
		Phx	6	16	0	6	2,534	0.24%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	0	17	6,554	0.26%

*New sales since Saturday

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-10 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 3x (4.96m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.78x (5m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .719x (3.38m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.313x (3.1m)

 - Civil War - 1.89x (5.48m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.67m

 

Tarot T-10 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .68x (510k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .17x (452k)

 - Abigail - .654x (654k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-9	Jax	6	36	1	19	6,208	0.31%
		Phx	6	19	0	45	3,556	1.27%
		Ral	8	29	1	49	4,195	1.17%
	Total		20	84	2	113	13,959	0.81%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-8	Jax	5	10	-3	38	2,007	1.89%
		Phx	1	2	0	18	618	2.91%
		Ral	2	2	2	21	412	5.10%
	Total		8	14	-1	77	3,037	2.54%
Tarot	T-9	Jax	5	21	1	5	1,752	0.29%
		Phx	6	16	0	6	2,534	0.24%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	1	18	6,554	0.27%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-9 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.603x (4.3m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.56x (4.37m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .623x (2.93m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.293x (3.05m)

 - Civil War - 1.597x (4.63m)

 - Free Guy - 1.919x (4.39m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.42m

 

Tarot T-9 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .692x (519k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .182x (484k)

 - Abigail - .643x (643k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Garfield	T-30	Jax	5	30	1	1	3,091	0.03%
		Phx	6	34	8	8	5,918	0.14%
		Ral	7	34	13	13	4,734	0.27%
	Total		18	98	22	22	13,743	0.16%
Garfield (EA)	T-26	Jax	1	1	15	15	37	40.54%
		Phx	1	1	17	17	49	34.69%
	Total		2	2	32	32	86	37.21%

 

Garfield (Total) Day 1 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .29x (2.19m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .179x (1.06m)

 - Minions 2 - .806x (8.69m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .232x (1.02m)

[filmlover]

Boy Kills World has sold practically nothing near me. That should be a sign as to what type of gross to expect from it.

[MightyDargon]

46 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Garfield	T-30	Jax	5	30	1	1	3,091	0.03%
		Phx	6	34	8	8	5,918	0.14%
		Ral	7	34	13	13	4,734	0.27%
	Total		18	98	22	22	13,743	0.16%
Garfield (EA)	T-26	Jax	1	1	15	15	37	40.54%
		Phx	1	1	17	17	49	34.69%
	Total		2	2	32	32	86	37.21%

 

Garfield (Total) Day 1 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .29x (2.19m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .179x (1.06m)

 - Minions 2 - .806x (8.69m)

 - Ghostbusters Afterlife (Total) - .232x (1.02m)

Seems pretty low overall, although likely a bad indicator of the "real" gross. I'm not really getting "breakout of the summer" vibes from it, though.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-9	Jax	6	36	1	19	6,208	0.31%
		Phx	6	19	0	45	3,556	1.27%
		Ral	8	29	1	49	4,195	1.17%
	Total		20	84	2	113	13,959	0.81%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-8	Jax	5	10	-3	38	2,007	1.89%
		Phx	1	2	0	18	618	2.91%
		Ral	2	2	2	21	412	5.10%
	Total		8	14	-1	77	3,037	2.54%
Tarot	T-9	Jax	5	21	1	5	1,752	0.29%
		Phx	6	16	0	6	2,534	0.24%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	1	18	6,554	0.27%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-9 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.603x (4.3m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.56x (4.37m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .623x (2.93m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.293x (3.05m)

 - Civil War - 1.597x (4.63m)

 - Free Guy - 1.919x (4.39m)

 

Size adjusted average - 3.42m

 

 

Walkups and Late Ticket Sales and WOM. Gonna keep saying that over and over again.

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Walkups and Late Ticket Sales and WOM. Gonna keep saying that over and over again.

You can keep saying it all you want, but a lot of the comps functioned the same way so that's kinda baked in.  If you don't want to see the poor updates, just wait and check in on preview day.

[Flopped]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Boy Kills World has sold practically nothing near me. That should be a sign as to what type of gross to expect from it.

 

Such a bad movie. Just noise. I'm not surprised. 

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

You can keep saying it all you want, but a lot of the comps functioned the same way so that's kinda baked in.  If you don't want to see the poor updates, just wait and check in on preview day.

I mean I am just saying it to myself. Obviously the marketing has not worked enough to get the GA excited enough to get tickets early or even check the reviews out. I am just at the point where the hope is the opening weekend is good enough that WOM and no big 800 LB in the  weeks to follow can lead to at least a decent run.

[justnumbers]

53 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Boy Kills World has sold practically nothing near me. That should be a sign as to what type of gross to expect from it.

I still don't understand who's distributing these movies. Is it Lionsgate or Roadside?

[crazymoviekid]

Anyone getting Angry Birds & Epic vibes from Garfield?  Gonna open to $35M-$50M, have two good weeks, get hit hard by Pixar, have two more weeks, then hit again by Illumination.  Have 3x+/-.2 legs.

[Boxofficerules]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Walkups and Late Ticket Sales and WOM. Gonna keep saying that over and over again.

Yup, that's what will happen for Tarot.