The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Despicable Me 4 (OD)	T-1	Jax	5	109	382	1,449	18,204	7.96%
		Phx	7	120	473	1,195	18,659	6.40%
		Ral	8	156	442	1,603	20,633	7.77%
	Total		20	385	1,297	4,247	57,496	7.39%

 

T-1 adjusted comps

 - Spider-Verse 2 - .845x (14.95m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - 1.52x (15.74m)

 - Minions 2 - 2.47x (27.16m)

 - Sonic 2 - 3.03x (18.56m)

 - Space Jam (OD) - 1.94x (32.39m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - 5.85x (24m)

 

I didn't track Mario consistently, but OD morning I counted 10,816 for these markets.  Based on T-1 growth comps, I'm expecting around a 75% growth today.  Here's where that would put final comps:

 

 - Spider-Verse 2 - 1.03x (18.14m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - 1.89x (19.51m)

 - Minions 2 - 2.5x (27.51m)

 - Sonic 2 - 4.24x (25.94m)

 - Space Jam (OD) - 1.68x (27.94m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - 6.88x (28.22m)

 - Super Mario (OD) - .687x (26.14m)

 

Using that hypothetical, I'd predict around a 26.5m OD.  I'm not sure if I'll have time to pull numbers in the morning so this may be my final prediction.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Despicable Me 4 (OD)	T-0	Jax	5	125	1,313	2,762	19,793	13.95%
		Phx	7	120	1,016	2,178	18,499	11.77%
		Ral	8	156	1,428	3,031	20,633	14.69%
	Total		20	401	3,757	7,971	58,925	13.53%

 

T-0 adjusted comps

 - Spider-Verse 2 - 1.1x (19.46m)

 - Sing 2 (OD) - 2.02x (20.92m)

 - Minions 2 - 2.68x (29.51m)

 - Sonic 2 - 4.55x (27.82m)

 - Space Jam (OD) - 1.8x (29.96m)

 - Kung Fu Panda 4 - 7.37x (30.26m)

 - Super Mario (OD) - .737x (28.03m)

 

Finished with a +87.7%!  Should be between 28m and 30m OD.  I'll go on the high end with 29.5m (but probably will round up)

[Hiccup23]

21 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

Alamo Drafthouse Chicago

 

MaXXXine	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Wednesday EA	65	65	100.0%
Friday	224	597	37.5%
Saturday	128	597	21.4%
Sunday	100	597	16.8%
Longlegs	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Thursday	107	204	52.5%
Friday	78	204	38.2%
Saturday	67	204	32.8%
Sunday	27	204	13.2%

Wednesday Morning Update

 

MaXXXine	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Wednesday EA	65	65	100.0%
Friday	260	597	43.6%
Saturday	137	597	22.9%
Sunday	108	597	18.1%

 

Great Friday growth for MaXXXine..but probably inflated due to no previews. 

[abracadabra1998]

How do y’all approach a T-1 Hour count when it’s Opening Day and different theaters open at different times and start showings at different times versus previews when they all start at the same time?

[vafrow]

5 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

How do y’all approach a T-1 Hour count when it’s Opening Day and different theaters open at different times and start showings at different times versus previews when they all start at the same time?

 

MTC4 doesn't let you see ticket sales 15 minutes after showtime, so it's really difficult to do T-0 counts. If I do a pull during tje day, I'll try in the afternoon before any shows start. But otherwise, my options are limited.

 

That's probably not much help, but that's my approach.

[Inceptionzq]

13 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Despicable Me 4 [+4 days of sales]

T-1 Wednesday: 19244/373956

MTC4 Despicable Me 4

T-0 Wednesday: 26656/373956

[TalismanRing]

24 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

Wednesday Morning Update

 

MaXXXine	Sold	Amount	Percent Sold
Wednesday EA	65	65	100.0%
Friday	260	597	43.6%
Saturday	137	597	22.9%
Sunday	108	597	18.1%

 

Great Friday growth for MaXXXine..but probably inflated due to no previews. 

 

Aren't these Wed shows basically previews on Wed instead of Thur?

 

NYC Local Regal

73/218 as of 9:30 am - pretty impressive so far especially for a 7pm showing.  

 

I know nothing about this series.  Did it explode on streaming since the last one?
 

[filmlover]

28 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Aren't these Wed shows basically previews on Wed instead of Thur?

 

NYC Local Regal

73/218 as of 9:30 am - pretty impressive so far especially for a 7pm showing.  

 

I know nothing about this series.  Did it explode on streaming since the last one?
 

X and Pearl (the latter especially being an incredible acting showcase for Mia Goth) did find much bigger audiences on streaming then they did during their quiet theatrical runs. A24 seems aware of this because those movies were barely marketed when they came out, while this one is receiving a pretty substantial marketing push (and even giving it a Vote of Confidence release date as counterprogramming for those not interested in the umpteenth Despicable Me movie) for the type of movie it is.

Edited Wednesday at 02:15 PM by filmlover

[Flopped]

48 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Aren't these Wed shows basically previews on Wed instead of Thur?

 

NYC Local Regal

73/218 as of 9:30 am - pretty impressive so far especially for a 7pm showing.  

 

I know nothing about this series.  Did it explode on streaming since the last one?
 

 

Pearl basically became a mini joker for women and gay men. So yeah it did explode on streaming and social media in particular. I'm bummed that Maxxxine is bad because if it had delivered, it could have actually been a smash capper to the trilogy. Maxxxine will open well on the strength of X and Peal but once the public sees it...woof! 

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

How do y’all approach a T-1 Hour count when it’s Opening Day and different theaters open at different times and start showings at different times versus previews when they all start at the same time?

I only do morning pulls for OD, but that's when I do all my T-0 updates so it makes the comping easier.  I don't know a good way to do a 1 hour count unless you do checks periodically throughout the day for small ranges of showtimes.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Despicable Me 4

T-0 Wednesday: 26656/373956

I suppose ~60K final admits aka $900K. Canada may be ~$1.3M.

Hmm. Just realised since there is no holiday in Canada, its a normal weekday, so America will overindex.

Edited Wednesday at 04:03 PM by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

MTC4 Despicable Me 4

T-0 Wednesday: 26656/373956

Is it possible for you to grab an update EOD or would the shows vanish as soon as its done?

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Is it possible for you to grab an update EOD or would the shows vanish as soon as its done?

They vanish. 

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

They vanish. 

That sucks. 

[Grand Cine]

https://deadline.com/2024/07/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-opening-projection-1236000799/

 

New Update :  160-165M OW ( Much more realistic predictions) .

 

I anticipate , me , 170-180M OW.

[Caption Action 3]

Early open caption advance sales for "Deadpool & Wolverine."  New York City skews the data somewhat. Open captions are booming in New York City where there is a law requiring at least some open caption screenings. One reason open captions do so well in New York City is the large immigrant community there. People learning English as a second language have been proven to benefit from captions. To counter New York City's high numbers, have many theaters from across the country in the data pool of over 100 theaters, from Alabama to Wisconsin (Wyoming does not have any theaters offering open caption screenings).  This data covers July 25 to July 28 and is for the first available open caption screening.

 

Because it is early, the 5.00 threshold for tickets to screentimes has not been met yet. Will post again when it reaches that threshold.

 

Deadpool and Wolverine – Nationwide OC July 25-28
# of Tickets/# of Markets	368	85	4.33
# of tickets/#of theaters	368	110	3.35
#of tickets/#of screen times	368	109	3.38
# of Zero solds/# of screen times	39	109	0.36

 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited Wednesday at 04:36 PM by kayumanggi

[thajdikt]

Good that they are using some more realistic numbers for Deadpool in the news cycle. The 200-239M number being presented as conservative was so stupid and especially given how Deadline always lowballs with numbers. Embarrassing by them and even more that they are still standing by it. $160M is much better and if it does more it’s just a win. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

https://deadline.com/2024/07/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-opening-projection-1236000799/

 

New Update :  160-165M OW ( Much more realistic predictions) .

 

I anticipate , me , 170-180M OW.

At least they are quoting NRG 🙂 I must admit this is within my expectations as well. Current pace I am seeing gets it there. Its perfectly possible for Disney to amp up the marketing. But they are holding back premier until release week and I am not convinced showing 1st 30 minutes is sufficient to take it to next level. I expect a "final trailer" no later than next week to try to pump up the excitement and I expect that to have major reveals that would excite the audience as well. So far minus the leads nothing much have been revealed. 

[Mojoguy]

$200M OW was always too high for Pool. R rating limits it too much.

[JustLurking]

Don't think we're deep enough into presales to rule out 200 tbh, though I do think that one report presenting it as a "conservative prediction" was just ridiculous, I think that was based on Quorum?