The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-1) - 161743/1295193 2523640.11 7361 shows +66668

Midnight Shows Final - 2901/14724 61843.65 84 shows +1626

 

It went well above my expectations. Now I have to bump my OD prediction to 30m ish range.  

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday Final - 380350/1303624 5942209.55 7455 shows +218607

 

Walkups did not hit my target. If there is no GentleMinions effect for DM4 and Canada functioning as work day, its probably finishing close to Charlie's early number. 

[crazymoviekid]

On 7/2/2024 at 11:49 PM, crazymoviekid said:

MaXXXine:

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets

Theater 2: 17 Tickets

 

AQP:DO: $9.02M

FNAF: $1.60M

Saw X: $6.73M

Insidious 5: $11.52M

The Blackening: $3.08M

Pearl: $8.04M

Nope: $4.11M

 

WIDE variety, but I think $3M-$4M for now.

MaXXXine:

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 19 Tickets

Theater 2: 21 Tickets

 

AQP:DO: $6.99M

FNAF: $1.48M

Saw X: $4.77M

Insidious 5: $6.80M

The Blackening: $2.91M

Pearl: $9.19M

Nope: $3.60M

 

To little surprise, we're dealing with fan-driven sales. Drops all around. Looking more like $2.5M-$3.5M

[keysersoze123]

On 7/2/2024 at 5:49 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Maxxxine MTC1

Early shows(7/3) - 13231/47221 199564.51 419 shows +2191

Friday - 16994/211681 239572.96 2219 shows +3699

 

Another good day for this movie. Probably looking at different early shows across banners it should do 500K in early shows(I am told Canada have thursday shows but not sure how well it will do there) and I am thinking 4m+ friday. 

Maxxxine MTC1

Early Shows Final - 18907/49344 283220.17 447 shows +5676

Friday(T-2) - 20596/218765 289313.22 2298 shows +3602

 

I did not see any show at MTC2. I am expecting 600k ish for early shows plus whatever it did on other days including tomorrow. Friday growth is not that great but let us see if things speed up tomorrow now that early shows are done. 

[charlie Jatinder]

46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday Final - 380350/1303624 5942209.55 7455 shows +218607

 

Walkups did not hit my target. If there is no GentleMinions effect for DM4 and Canada functioning as work day, its probably finishing close to Charlie's early number. 

MEH walkups.

[JonathanMB]

MaXXXine strikes me as another Furiosa, where it's gonna have strong passionate appeal among the kind of movie fans that buy ahead without much walk-up business from casuals. But MaXXXine is a low-budget A24 horror flick, so any opening weekend above the final totals of the first two movies would be a massive win (what was the last sequel to pull that trick, Pitch Perfect 2?).

[keysersoze123]

On 7/2/2024 at 9:23 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-1) - 161743/1295193 2523640.11 7361 shows +66668

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Thursday(T-2) - 119248/1287985 1670658.43 7341 shows 

 

I think day 2 sales look robust to me. I am expecting 300K ish finish considering late shows will take a dip. Thinking 20-22m for its Thursday. 

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

MaXXXine (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 

6 2D showings: 10/564 (1.8% sold) [+10]

 

Comps: 

Quiet Place (Friday): $1.47 mil

Watchers (Friday): $1.19 mil

Strangers Chp. 1 (Friday): $1.05 mil

Average: $1.24 mil

 

Showtimes weren't available here until yesterday so that accounts for the current low total. Checked last night and there were zero tickets sold, hence why I didn't bother reporting it. Hoping tomorrow will provide more accurate numbers.

MaXXXine (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

6 2D showings: 29/564 (5.1% sold) [+19]

 

Comps: 

Quiet Place (Friday): $3.43 mil

Watchers (Friday): $3.45 mil

Strangers Chp. 1 (Friday): $2.22 mil

Average: $3.03 mil

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Thursday(T-2) - 119248/1287985 1670658.43 7341 shows 

 

I think day 2 sales look robust to me. I am expecting 300K ish finish considering late shows will take a dip. Thinking 20-22m for its Thursday. 

ATP diff be a lot as well since morning and matinee shows be full and higher priced matinees be low. Pre-sales ATP was $15.5 on WED and $14 on THU, so 300K admits might be $19M.

[THUNDER BIRD]

[charlie Jatinder]

18 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Wednesday - 16699/139710 (574 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 - $27M

Inside Out 2 - $28M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $41M (adjusted for over indexing ~$36M)

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 Final

 

Wednesday - 47240/141593 (586 showings) ~$550K

 

Not impressive walkups. Was expecting 60K.

 

This should normally mean ~$26M. If I already didn't know numbers, would have taken them as bad.

Edited July 4 by charlie Jatinder

[Insomnia]

 A Despicable Me movie not having great walkups is definitely a surprise. Almost to the point of taking it for granted. Hopefully it surprises us in a good way tomorrow and on the weekend.

[Boxofficerules]

18 minutes ago, Insomnia said:

 A Despicable Me movie not having great walkups is definitely a surprise. Almost to the point of taking it for granted. Hopefully it surprises us in a good way tomorrow and on the weekend.

Are schools out in America? If not that might explain weak Wednesday walk ups.

[TalismanRing]

43 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Are schools out in America? If not that might explain weak Wednesday walk ups.

 

Everyone's out of school unless they were held back for Summer School.

[Porthos]

On 7/3/2024 at 2:14 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27626	33622	5996	17.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

67

 

T-23 Comp

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.30		195	8779		0/329	32131/40910	21.46%		21117	28.39%		24.59m
L&T	126.93		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	35.35%		36.81m
BP2	103.20		102	5810		1/294	31209/37019	15.69%		16800	35.69%		28.90m
AM3	155.94		127	3845		0/235	28711/32556	11.81%		10475	57.24%		27.29m
GOTG3	206.12		114	2909		0/206	26760/29669	9.80%		10750	55.78%		36.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1329/12925  [10.28% sold]
Matinee:    363/4469  [8.12% | 6.05% of all tickets sold]
3D:              667/6801  [9.81% | 11.12% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3058/11532  [26.52% | 51.00% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        61 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    64 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27483	33616	6133	18.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

137

 

T-22 Comp

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.55		168	8947		0/329	31963/40910	21.87%		21117	29.04%		24.68m
L&T	121.21		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	36.16%		35.15m
BP2	103.11		138	5948		1/294	31071/37019	16.07%		16800	36.51%		28.87m
AM3	154.72		119	3964		0/235	28592/32556	12.18%		10475	58.55%		27.08m
GOTG3	203.48		105	3014		0/206	26655/29669	10.16%		10750	57.05%		35.61m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1391/12925  [10.76% sold]
Matinee:     376/4469  [8.41% | 6.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:              675/6799  [9.93% | 11.01% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          3100/11526  [26.90% | 50.55% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        130 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    130 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[katnisscinnaplex]

Early Showtimes Sample

 

MaXXXine (7/3 EA) - 1,824 (1,614 TC)

 - American Underdog (EA) - 2,203 (1,003)

 - Downton Abbey (EA) - 2,811 (2,755)

 - Dog (EA) - 1,111 (1,102)

 

Despicable Me 4 (Wed/Thu) - 79,728 (3,218 TC)

 - Sing 2 (Wed/Thu) - 34,697 (3,093)

 - Puss in Boots (Wed/Thu) - 45,568 (3,351)

 - Mario (Wed/Thu) - 87,399 (3,277)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Longlegs	T-7	Jax	4	7	63	63	473	13.32%
		Phx	5	9	59	59	591	9.98%
		Ral	4	9	53	53	631	8.40%
	Total		13	25	175	175	1,695	10.32%

 

T-7 adjusted comps

 - Smile (Total) - 1.02x (1.75m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .81x (2.49m)

 - Strangers - 2.65x (2.67m)

 - Watchers - 4.27x (3.59m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 2.16m

[charlie Jatinder]

For some reason, Canada did just fine for DM4. 6.5% of DOM which is normal.

[TwoMisfits]

Just announced T-Mobile Atom deal...

 

7/9 $5 to ANY movie in any form.  Usable July 9-14 (not sure if you can prebook for later like normal deals, but it's looking unlikely, so this will not bump Deadpool).

 

Should help next week be a good week...

Edited July 4 by TwoMisfits

[Unfitclock]

@katnisscinnaplex @charlie Jatinder @keysersoze123 just wondering how does fly me to the moon look by you guys for early access and next weekend 

[abracadabra1998]

Minnesota Previews:

 

Fly Me to the Moon (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-2, T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 20 theaters	56	18	18	5086	0.35
Saturday July 6 EA: 16 theaters	16	14	14	1306	1.07
Friday July 5 EA: 17 theaters	16	74	74	1299	5.7
TOTALS:	88	106	106	7691	1.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		16	16	88.89
Other chains:		2	2	11.11

 

Thursday Comps:

0.23x Challengers: $360k

0.62x Anyone But You: $745k (17 theaters)

0.35x Big Fat Greek Wedding: $190k (17 theaters)

0.94x No Hard Feelings: $2.02 Million (12 theaters)

 

Doesn't make much sense to look into this much rn, will have to wait for after EA to see how it actually does.

 

EA Comps (Friday only):

0.25x Maxxxine: ?? (assuming $600k --> $145k)

0.13x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: $200k

0.2x Fall Guy: $160k

0.27x Challengers: $150k

0.2x Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare: $120k

 

Pretty weak stuff, I will give T-1 Hour updates for this as well as Saturday EA

 

Longlegs (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	23	247	247	1684	14.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		158	158	63.97
Other chains:		89	89	36.03

 

This is REALLY strong stuff, and if I comped this with normal horror flicks the $ value would be in the 4-5 Million. But this is not normal horror, it's way more pre-sales frontloaded with how cinephile-ish it is, and I don't want to mislead people who just look at the average comp value. Any comp ideas for this?