The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1)

08/15/24

Coraline (re-release) - 232 tickets sold

Alien: Romulus - 163 tickets sold

 

COMPS & ANALYSIS

Coraline (re-release)

1.55x of GHOST: RITE HERE RITE NOW ($1.75M)

1.69x of The Chosen Season 4 eps 1-3 ($2.42M)

1.87x of Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace re-release ($4.55M)

3.18x of Spy x Family Code: White ($2.13M)

AVERAGE: $2.71M

 

Like I knew Coraline was popular, but daaaaaaaaaaaamn. 6th best THU seller at my theater ever? More than It Ends With Us and Godzilla x Kong? Obviously it over indexed and hence my comps aren't $10M THU level or anything, but absolutely incredible showing here in my market, and if it's replicated at all anywhere else, then a massive debut by re-release standards is in the cards here. Blind guess based largely on my comps, but $2.5-3M THU and an $8-12M OW?

 

Alien: Romulus

0.45x of Dune: Part Two ($4.14M) 

0.87x of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($8.71M)

1.29x of Civil War ($3.75M)

1.36x of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga ($4.75M)

1.66x of A Quiet Place: Day One ($11.31M)

2.26x of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes ($11.32M)

AVERAGE: $7.33M

Coraline doing as stupidly well as it did kinda made Alien's sales total look a bit less impressive by comparison, but it still did really really strongly here. All of my comps here kinda either came in too low because of terrible walkups and over indexing (Dune, Furiosa, Civil War) or came in too high because of incredible walkups and under indexing (GxK, Apes, AQP), yet the overall average seems to make sense. However, I've noticed when this type of comp herding happens for blockbusters at my market, they usually follow one track more heavily than the other and tend not to follow the overall average as closely. And given Alien's strong reviews, horror elements, and the general walkup heavy nature of blockbusters this summer, I'm fairly confident which track I'd take here. Call me bullish, but I'm gonna say $8-9M THU and a $62-69M OW.

 

Btw thanks for the feedback on formatting, I do like this split analysis form better!

[BOfficeStats]

How are The Crow presales looking?  It comes out in a week.  

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 299

New Sales: 56

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 16.6

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 35/6

Early Evening: 192/6

Late Evening: 72/6

 

Tickets by Format:

Regular: 30/3

Dolby: 16/3

VIP: 112/6

IMAX: 141/6

 

Comps

2.718x AQP:D1 for $18.5M

1.780x KOTPOTA for $8.9M

1.557x Furiosa for $5.5M

1.954x BB:RoD for $11.5M

 

Average: $13.0M

 

Staying solid.

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 367

New Sales: 68

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 4

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 20.4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 41/6

Early Evening: 217/6

Late Evening: 109/6

 

Tickets by Format:

Regular: 42/3

Dolby: 19/3

VIP: 124/6

IMAX: 182/6

 

Comps

2.430x AQP:D1 for $16.5M

1.596x KOTPOTA for $8.0M

1.549x Furiosa for $5.4M

1.653x BB:RoD for $9.7M

 

Average: $11.4M

 

The strong reviews didn't trigger anything for late sales. It's done okay.

 

But this still outperforms it's comps, even if it's not outperforming growth rate. I don't know why, but it feels like this is just an overindex here. Reports from other Canadian markets suggest the same thing.

 

We'll see what actuals end up being though.

[VanillaSkies]

One thing to be careful about with Coraline is its opening Thursday - not previews but a full opening day. Some theatres have 10/11am showtimes. So extrapolating Thursday numbers over the weekend should be adjusted accordingly. 
 

Having said that, it’s still doing amazing numbers and putting some recent originals like Harold to shame. So fun to see surprises like this and helps to continue what was already a strong August.

[titanic2187]

is coraline overperformance due to lack of awareness of the movie among GA, and got people mistakenly it as a new movie? Actually I was already quite surprised that the re-release last year went so well. And now the rerelease one year later seem got even bigger. 
 

At this rate coraline  may passing 100m lifetime gross. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/14/2024 at 7:31 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-1	Jax	5	60	68	660	10,144	6.51%
		Phx	7	43	106	699	7,160	9.76%
		Ral	8	61	65	432	7,556	5.72%
	Total		20	164	239	1,791	24,860	7.20%

 

Alien Romulus T-1 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - 1.19x (7.19m)

 - Nope - 1.31x (8.59m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.68x (9.29m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .908x (8.18m)

 - Morbius - 1.03x (6.04m)

 - Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 1.6x (7.03m)

 - TMNT - 2.44x (9.94m)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 1.28x (5.62m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.27x (6.78m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 6.71m

 

*I removed EA from TMNT and Ghostbusters comps

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Alien Romulus	58.64%	-	-	15.40%
Scream VI	43.43%	20.38%	12.56%	15.40%
Nope	91.58%	26.23%	19.39%	32.36%
Halloween Ends	-	-	22.00%	-
Godzilla x Kong	80.18%	29.04%	22.39%	21.19%
Morbius	76.09%	20.24%	21.81%	22.07%
Ghostbusters: FE	66.82%	29.02%	21.38%	26.81%
Turtles	58.06%	33.76%	22.73%	25.00%
Ghostbusters	74.47%	28.14%	18.02%	28.41%
Halloween Kills	97.07%	39.75%	-	26.95%

 

Matched Scream T-1 increase exactly, but below all other comps.  I've been leaning a bit more into Sci-Fi than pure horror comps just based on a gut feeling.  Targeting a +30% today and between 6.5m and 7m for previews.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-0	Jax	5	60	218	878	10,144	8.66%
		Phx	7	46	275	974	7,535	12.93%
		Ral	8	61	157	589	7,556	7.80%
	Total		20	167	650	2,441	25,235	9.67%

 

Alien Romulus T-0 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - 1.28x (7.71m)

 - Nope - 1.23x (8.06m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.7x (9.4m)

 - Godzilla x Kong - .9x (8.12m)

 - Morbius - 1.09x (6.36m)

 - Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - 1.6x (7.03m)

 - TMNT - 2.15x (8.76m)

 - Ghostbusters: Afterlife - 1.36x (5.99m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.35x (7.2m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 7.09m

Growth model forecast - 6.52m

 

It beat my projected growth for today and hit a +36% which moved the average over 7m!  Another day like this and the sky is the limit.  I'll bump my projection up to 7.5m for the time being and hope for a +40% today

[katnisscinnaplex]

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Coraline (Re)	T-0	Jax	5	14	356	356	1,275	27.92%
		Phx	6	26	1,535	1,535	3,096	49.58%
		Ral	6	13	376	376	1,417	26.53%
	Total		17	53	2,267	2,267	5,788	39.17%

 

T-0 adjusted comps

 - Luca (Re-release) - 19.2x (3.25m)

 - Spider-Man (Re-release) - 6.571x (5.01m)

 - Return of the King (Re-release) - 1.723x (1.97m)

 - Phantom Menace (Re-release) - 1.91x (4.51m)

 

Only looking at re-releases for comps.  Unfortunately I missed T-0 for the LotR extended edition re-releases but I have the one from last year.  With this having 3D and Fathom prices, I wouldn't be surprised with a 4m Thursday with how well it's doing among all the trackers.  That being said - re-releases are extremely hard to predict so I wouldn't be surprised with 1.5m either.  

[harrisonisdead]

36 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

is coraline overperformance due to lack of awareness of the movie among GA, and got people mistakenly it as a new movie?

I don't think so. The volume of presales points more towards it being fan-driven. Quite a significant cult following has built up over the years. Last year's showings were all packed with fervent fans and the limited showings meant they didn't nearly burn off all the demand. (And tbh a lot of the people who saw it last year will probably return, like how Howl's Moving Castle does numbers during every yearly Ghibli Fest.)

[TomThomas]

7 hours ago, BOfficeStats said:

How are The Crow presales looking?  It comes out in a week.  

Does it even have pre-sales?

[AniNate]

Just mentally add an extra 20% to this

 

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice': Jenna Ortega Pic Box Office Eyes $65M-$75M Bow (deadline.com)

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Coraline (Re)	T-0	Jax	5	14	356	356	1,275	27.92%
		Phx	6	26	1,535	1,535	3,096	49.58%
		Ral	6	13	376	376	1,417	26.53%
	Total		17	53	2,267	2,267	5,788	39.17%

 

T-0 adjusted comps

 - Luca (Re-release) - 19.2x (3.25m)

 - Spider-Man (Re-release) - 6.571x (5.01m)

 - Return of the King (Re-release) - 1.723x (1.97m)

 - Phantom Menace (Re-release) - 1.91x (4.51m)

 

Only looking at re-releases for comps.  Unfortunately I missed T-0 for the LotR extended edition re-releases but I have the one from last year.  With this having 3D and Fathom prices, I wouldn't be surprised with a 4m Thursday with how well it's doing among all the trackers.  That being said - re-releases are extremely hard to predict so I wouldn't be surprised with 1.5m either.  

Do you know how many shows it has today? 

[filmlover]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice looking to be the Keaton nostalgia-powered hit they tried to make The Flash into.

[Jonwo]

21 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Just mentally add an extra 20% to this

 

'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice': Jenna Ortega Pic Box Office Eyes $65M-$75M Bow (deadline.com)

Even $65m would be the fourth biggest September opening weekend of all time. WB will have four of the top 5 which is kind of mad.

 

It wasn't that long ago that the Hotel Transylvania films broke the September record and Sweet Home Alabama went from the highest grossing September opening to the 9th highest. 

 

Edited August 15 by Jonwo

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Do you know how many shows it has today? 

In my sample it's sitting at 4,449 in 1,502 theaters

 

MTC1 - 1,634 (456 TC)

MTC2 - 1,129 (284)

MTC3 - 829 (313)

 

1,657 (37%) are 3D

[vafrow]

8 hours ago, BOfficeStats said:

How are The Crow presales looking?  It comes out in a week.  

 

I'm not doing a formal track on it, but in my radius, it's at 4 tickets sold, across four theatres and 8 showtimes.

 

It's not getting proper previews. Just showitmes added on the regular weekly update. But, it got the screen allocation, likely because there's nothing else.

 

For something that has a certain level of IP value, and probably isn't going to be walk up friendly, that's pretty poor.

 

I might revisit it a few days before opening, but my expectations are low.

[el sid]

New Alien: Romulus numbers soon.

 

Yesterday Alien: Romulus had 2.459 sold tickets for Thursday (with shows in 7 theaters). Best sales in the AMCS in California followed by the AMC Fresh Meadows in NY.

Up muted 22.5% since Monday.

 

Comps (all 5 films counted on Wednesday for Thursday): AQP: Day One (6.8M from previews, always pure Thursday) had 1.772 sold tickets = 9.45M. 

The Fall Guy (2.35M) had 865 = 6.65M. 

BT (4.6M) had 1.238 = 9.15M. 

Uncharted (3.7M) had 1.062 = 8.55M. 

And Planet of the Apes (5M) had 1.381 = 8.9M.

 

[Furiosa (3.5M) finally had 2.482 sold tickets.

GxK (9.2M) also finally had 2.015 sold tickets.

And Twisters (10.7M from previews on Wednesday + Thursday) had 1.592 sold tickets. Does anybody remember its pure Thursday number?]

 

Average (from the 5 films above): 8.55M. 

Seems a little bit too good 🤔.

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Alien Romulus T-1

Sales	Seats	Shows
1729	24499	148

TC=28, pulled 12PM EST

Comps 

0.57x Dune 2 = $5.7m

0.82x Twisters = $6.7m

2.05x Furiosa = $7.2m

0.74x Godzilla x Kong = $7.4m

 

AVG = $6.76m

Indiana

Alien Romulus T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
2240	24499	148

TC=28, pulled 11AM EST

Comps 

0.14x Deadpool Wolverine = $5.2m

0.71x Twisters = $5.8m

0.62x Dune 2 = $6.2m

2.24x Furiosa = $7.9m

1.46x AQP D1 = $9.9m

 

AVG = $7.00m

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

In my sample it's sitting at 4,449 in 1,502 theaters

 

MTC1 - 1,634 (456 TC)

MTC2 - 1,129 (284)

MTC3 - 829 (313)

 

1,657 (37%) are 3D

Thank you @katnisscinnaplex. i just looked at Coraline MTC1. one word is WOW. 

 

Coraline MTC1 Thursday - 50311/172967 885597.00 1511 shows. 

 

Simply WOW. I am thinking this will do 4m+ as you mentioned earlier. 

[keysersoze123]

On Romulus, Looking at MTC1 I am thinking 140K finish with fan shows BO included. That should get it close to 2.5m at MTC1. I am thinking higher ratio due to fan shows being limited to MTC1. So around 7m previews overall and 50m ish OW. 

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thank you @katnisscinnaplex. i just looked at Coraline MTC1. one word is WOW. 

 

Coraline MTC1 Thursday - 50311/172967 885597.00 1511 shows. 

 

Simply WOW. I am thinking this will do 4m+ as you mentioned earlier. 

4M OD? holy ****