Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[M37]

5 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I don't get it. 

 

14 years ago, top 4 movies pulled $70m on CD with WAY lower ATP. Shows are selling out left and right, and still the Top movies only generate barely $50m in 2023? 

 

Jesus, even Into the Woods smashed $15m on CD. TCP looked so much bigger...

 

 

I think we have a huge shift from matinee and late shows to only the prime time showtimes, I have no other explanantion. 

 

Just seems like the old magical days of BO wonder are past us. 

 

And yes, $16m is still great. 

Keep in mind a good number of locations (even busy ones) have switched to recliner seating (or similar premium set-up) of late, which cuts down a lot of potential capacity

 

The business model in general has been shifting to one built less on volume, but with a higher spend per person. It’s only outlier situations - Barbenheimer, Cinema Day, TCP - which stretch those limits 

[Cmasterclay]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Might have to see how it does on the weekend.  Yes, "Every day is Saturday".  But... kinda not really?  Some folks still have to work.  I'd wait for the actual weekend to see if this is still a Weekend Movie like many adult-skewed films have been in the past.

 

The other option, as much as one doesn't want to hear it:  (SEQUEL-ISH) FAN RUSH

 

Might not be a Nostalgic Toy Commercial (and gawds do I hate that phrase oh so very much), but it certainly has in in-built base of folks already interested in it.  Might just take time for the WOM to filter out from the fans to the GA.

 

All very possible. I think there's a mathematical reason to doubt 100. Intuitively, though, I think that it's a good movie with a likely A Cinemascore that will possibly get nominated for some awards and it isn't going anywhere. I'm not incredible hopeful for the weekdays tbh but I am hopeful for the weekends going deep into January. It'd require 47 Ronin style to hit some of these lower numbers. But, like I was ranting about earlier, the intuition that has guided me for years of box office prediction is no longer anything worth much in the face of the advanced data collection we now have.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[cannastop]

It's fair to say that a $16 million OD Christmas movie missing $100m dom is unprecedented.

[ThomasNicole]

Seeing Saltburn blowing up so hard in social media (especially TikTok) made me think Amazon should’ve save the theatrical release for Christmas, could’ve perform way better than it did 

 

At least is huge on streaming tho 

Edited December 26, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[M37]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Missing 100M is very much possible from 16M OD. If tomorrow drops big as sales would have suggested, would become likely as well, unless WOM is really great.

It would be an extreme low end outlier at below 6x

 

Les Miserables for example dropped 33% on 12/26, was down 50% by 12/27, and still managed better than an 8x

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I do feel like we might be overlooking the possibility it's not attracting the same kind of audience in less diverse locales as urban areas

 

That was already known pre-open.  It was always gonna play like Women King (having 25+ Black women driving the audience attendance), just at bigger numbers.  

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's fair to say that a $16 million OD Christmas movie missing $100m dom is unprecedented.

Looking at some XMAS ODs

Unbroken - 15.43M to 115.64M in 2014
Daddy's Home - 15.71M to 150.35M in 2015
Les Miserables - 18.11 to 148.8M in 2012

Given the normal frontloading and the fact OD for this is loaded with pay it forward, not that unlikely.

[Welcbr12]

Hearing waves of compliments about TCP from friends of mine, looking forward to watching it soon

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Looking at some XMAS ODs

Unbroken - 15.43M to 115.64M in 2014
Daddy's Home - 15.71M to 150.35M in 2015
Les Miserables - 18.11 to 148.8M in 2012

Given the normal frontloading and the fact OD for this is loaded with pay it forward, not that unlikely.

Sure, there's something in the range of precedent, but Unbroken had a (likely) lower opening day, had a de facto pay it forward with church groups obsessing over it, and was a wet fart of a movie with no award buzz....and it still crossed 100 relatively easily? 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[Porthos]

You know, this whole situation around TCP tonight reminds of a comment from our Fearless Leader @Shawn Robbins back when TET debuted:

 

Quote

What a time to be alive when everything between $25-50m is on the table after a film has already opened.

 

First one through the wall always gets bloody, though. At least this will give us a good baseline for Bey and future specialty fan-based mega releases... though I'm not sure anyone will match Taylor pound for pound anytime soon. 

 

This isn't strictly the first through the wall, as we had SMB earlier this year which was an all day release with no previews, but I do think it's one of the first through wall for something with this much interest and so much competition and wasn't targeted toward kids/families.

 

Now every new release is unique in its own way, sure.  But there were enough unique things at play that... Well, next time we have a Christmas/Holiday Release with this much anticipation that is skewing toward adults that has a lot of competition, we'll have something of a baseline!

 

*re-reads all of the things that were in fact in play here*

 

Just don't ask me when that "next time" is.  

[MovieMan89]

Ngl, 16 and 10 would both be on the rock bottom end of what I thought TCP and Wonka would do today. Disappointing.
 

And yet ironically still easily blowing past DLs projections going into the weekend showing how much they should just stop 

Edited December 26, 2023 by MovieMan89

[WrathOfHan]

Color Purple's capacity issues are hardly surprising. Even in NY, most of the major theaters are giving it a screen's worth of showtimes; Lincoln Square is doing standard in the day and Dolby at night with no in between. There are too many movies in the marketplace right now to command multiple screens for anything really.

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

.... did anyone suggest it wouldn't get to $100 m dom?

Those definitely are out of touch. TCP got to be some fanboys superhero movie to have that terrible legs. But it is not, TCP is a freaking Oscar player that opened during award season. That alone can give you some Oscar bump.

 

If the wolf of Wall Street get 100m with just 9.2m OD, and a freaking C+ cinemascore, TCP should get there with an eyes closed. It is 95% rated by audience which should at least translate to A cinemascore. 

[dallas]

The Color Purple has received an 'A' Cinemascore

[MysteryMovieMogul]

1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

 

It's getting harder to justify for families when there are similar films like Leo (another recent heartfelt animated film with talking animals) available for free at home.

 

1 hour ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Regal is running a family ticket promotion now (4 tickets all at children's prices, R rated movies excluded) but there still has to be at least 4 people and two kids under 12, which doesn’t cover every family situation. It's a start, though still not cheaper than staying home for streaming.

 

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

I bet many families are waiting for Discount Tues. My nearest Regal has $5 a ticket for every movie EXCEPT for TCP. Wonka, Migration, and Aqua should benefit tremendously.

 

Exactly! Although I'm skeptical that discounts will change the trajectory of Migration too much.

[AniNate]

I can only assume Ferdinand also benefited from that in 2017 given it had a 42.8% increase. That would definitely be a major shot in the arm for migration/wonka if it managed that, but I don't want to get hopes up.

 

It is good to see signs that the movies are coexisting, they appear to have had similar very solid Xmas day increases.

 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by AniNate

[CJohn]

There is 0% chance TCP misses 100M with a 16M+ OD. 

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Looking at some XMAS ODs

Unbroken - 15.43M to 115.64M in 2014
Daddy's Home - 15.71M to 150.35M in 2015
Les Miserables - 18.11 to 148.8M in 2012

Given the normal frontloading and the fact OD for this is loaded with pay it forward, not that unlikely.

Wait TCP is doing that SoF thing from earlier this summer? Weird.

 

Anyways, if OD is around 16, I’m expecting a final total around Unbroken. Similar run, since I’m expecting some level of frontloading due to high anticipation and large pre sales. 
 

Curious what Ferrari’s day looks like. Boys in the Boat could make a run for 40M which is 4x what I thought it would gross. Nice to see that there are still some surprises at the box office even with the tracking team firmly on target 99% of the time.

[titanic2187]

12 minutes ago, CJohn said:

There is 0% chance TCP misses 100M with a 16M+ OD. 

Guys, we have to perform exorcism to expel this positivity spirit out from CJ!

[AniNate]

If that $6m estimate for Migration holds it would accomplish a feat Greatest Showman never did. Biggest day for that movie was $5.85 million.

 

Largest for Puss 2 was $6.82 mil, which was December 26. Will be interesting to see whether Migration acts more like Greatest Showman or Ferdinand for discount Tuesday.

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by AniNate