Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[Kon]

18 minutes ago, Mulder said:

The quote Charlie specifically made was in response to Clay's reasonable explanation that it was to pre-emptively shut up people who've been weird in the tracking thread, who Charlie proceeded to defend and then say it could miss 100 without any sign of that.

 

Clay may want to prevent a weird discussion, but he is just opening the door to that discussion by bringing up that topic. Charlie was only answering him with his own analysis.

 

Honestly, I just don't understand why you tried to call Charlie out for his answer. Maybe you don't like Charlie's analysis that TCP reaching 100M DOM isn't absolutely certain, but he didn't bring the topic out of nowhere on this thread (as Clay bring the topic first).

Edited December 26, 2023 by Kon

[Jake Gittes]

13 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Why would it fall faster than TLJ? That movie had some pretty bad holiday legs. Aquaman has mixed WOM but it's much smaller OW should allow it to have better legs than TLJ imo.

 

Much lower PTAs would be an excuse for theaters to drop it faster once January rolls around and its grosses go into a freefall.

[Mulder]

11 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

Clay may want to prevent a weird discussion, but he is just opening the door to that discussion by bringing up that topic. Charlie was only answering him with his own analysis.

 

Honestly, I just don't understand why you tried to call Charlie out for his answer. Maybe you don't like Charlie's analysis that TCP reaching 100M DOM isn't absolutely certain, but he didn't bring the topic out of nowhere on this thread (as Clay bring the topic first).

I explained it about as good as I can that deciding to defend those types of posts in the thread and genuinely try to argue that missing 100 million was doable pre-Cinemascore (Which a bunch of other people called out and agreed was just weird) is odd.

[AniNate]

6 hours ago, Speedorito said:

 

 

Edit: misread boat as heron

Edited December 26, 2023 by AniNate

[M37]

6 hours ago, Bob Train said:

2009 was an anomaly due to Avatar, as well as Christmas Day falling on a Friday. the top 4 movies in 2008 generate $43m, and in 2010 $35m. $70m was never the baseline. I'd imagine everything was selling out in 2009.

Yes, everything was selling out on Xmas day in 2009 (and also 2015 - that Friday Xmas is something else)

 

But from 2008 through 2019, only 2 Christmas Days - the weaker years of 2010 & 2011 - failed to reach $75M in aggregate, so that was the approximate baseline

[joselowe]

6 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I would be emotional if Fantasia wins the Oscar. Would love to see her become the frontrunner 

I’d love that but Lily Gladstone pretty much had it sealed way before the movie was ever screened. It’s odd how some films are guaranteed to get wins way before anyone has ever screened it.

[M37]

15 hours ago, M37 said:

Christmas Day Openers & Expansions* Total Daily Gross

(*to at least 1000 locations)

Films in bold grossed at least $5M and/or finished top 5 for the day

 

• 2012 (Tue) = $39.4M (3 - Les Miserables, Django, Parental Guidance)
• 2013 (Wed) = $29.2M (5 - Wolf Wall Street, Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, Grudge Match, Bieber)
• 2014 (Thu) = $36.9M (4 - Unbroken, Into the Woods, Gambler, Big Eyes)
• 2015 (Fri) = $31.0M (4 - Daddy's Home, Joy, Concussion, Point Break)
• ==============================
• 2016 (Sun) = $6.6M (1 - Fences)
• 2017 (Mon) = $2.6M (1 - All the Money in the World)
• 2018 (Tue) = $11.2M (2 - Holmes & Watson, Vice)
• 2019 (Wed) = $17.1M (3 - Little Women, Uncut Gems, Spies in Disguise)
• 2021 (Sat) = $6.8M (3 - Amer Underdog, Journal/Jordan, Licorice Pizza)
• 2022 (Sun) - none

 

I bring this up because there has been a fair amount of discussion about capacity constraints, particularly for the new releases.  Generally, Christmas Day is one of the most difficult days to match supply (seats) to demand; this will be the first Xmas since 2015 with this level ($20M+) of influx, and the certainly the first of those (maybe 2019?) with widespread reserved seating and high volume advance sales, making it far more difficult to juggle thing around close to release, even if demand clearly warrants

Going to re-up this post, but in particular the summary

 

15 hours ago, M37 said:

tl;dr - going to be a lot of sell-outs today, but that dye was somewhat cast 3 weeks ago when these tickets went on sale, and the result may be some atypical Xmas/Boxing/Wed daily patterns - including spillover into other films today - until the proper balance can be found

With the 26th being Discount Day, really have to wait until the Wednesday 12/27 numbers (and maybe Friday for the lower level holdovers) to get a good sense of the post-Xmas baseline value and being able to start fine tuning expectations for legs

 

Broadly speaking, still using the baseline expectation mathed out earlier

• Wonka ~4x its first week ($57.5M)
• Aquaman and Migration* ~5x the 3-day OW ($27.7M & $12.5M)
• TCP ~8.5x the Xmas day number (est $16M)

*I expect that legs value won't hold up for Migration, but no good comp in analog years, could be as high as 7-8x

[charlie Jatinder]

BTW reported nos. for TCP will include private shows from last few weeks. They could be $1-2M. So reported nos. be $18M range.

[JonathanMB]

10 hours ago, M37 said:

Keep in mind a good number of locations (even busy ones) have switched to recliner seating (or similar premium set-up) of late, which cuts down a lot of potential capacity

 

The business model in general has been shifting to one built less on volume, but with a higher spend per person. It’s only outlier situations - Barbenheimer, Cinema Day, TCP - which stretch those limits 

 

Another factor in the last decade that I think has its own small effect is the rise of reserved seating, which stops most movies from every having true sold out screenings like they used to when it was general admission. People would buy tickets only to find that there's only seating in the first two rows, nowadays if they see that is the only seating left (as was the case for Color Purple at several locations) they may decide to just go at a later date when they can get better seating. 

[CJohn]

This thread is weird. Waiting for some official numbers. A great week in store for theaters. 

[Starphanluke]

Really excited to see where TCP goes from here. I've heard so many good things, and it was an event at my theatre yesterday. People dressed up, big groups, etc. 

 

I was there seeing Wonka with the family. The audience really loved it. Hope it continues to do well throughout the week, too.

[harrisonisdead]

10 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Given the normal frontloading and the fact OD for this is loaded with pay it forward, not that unlikely.

Wdym "loaded with pay it forward"?

[SchumacherFTW]

27 minutes ago, CJohn said:

This thread is weird. Waiting for some official numbers. A great week in store for theaters. 

Are you ok? What's with the positivity? 

[cannastop]

Recovery!

 

[grim22]

9 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Are you ok? What's with the positivity? 

I think he's been kidnapped and his captors are monitoring his internet activity. This is him trying to tell us something is wrong and to send help.

[Issac Newton]

Dunki - $941K / $4.53M

Salaar - $829K / $6.44M

[baumer]

10 hours ago, CJohn said:

There is 0% chance TCP misses 100M with a 16M+ OD. 

I don't know what it's like in the US but the two week school break here in Canada starts this week and goes into next week obviously. So there should be very strong numbers for the next 14 days.

[wildphantom]

2 hours ago, joselowe said:

I’d love that but Lily Gladstone pretty much had it sealed way before the movie was ever screened. It’s odd how some films are guaranteed to get wins way before anyone has ever screened it.

I’m not sure that’s fair. Gladstone is fantastic in the film. A worthy contender, even if it’s much more a supporting role than a lead one. 
 

Carey Mulligan’s Maestro performance is by far the best lead actress contender I’ve seen. Yet we know campaigns and politics all come into it, especially in the final weeks. It’s always about the nominations for me.  The eventual winners are subject to a pony show that takes no prisoners. 

[JustWatching]

22 minutes ago, baumer said:

I don't know what it's like in the US but the two week school break here in Canada starts this week and goes into next week obviously. So there should be very strong numbers for the next 14 days.

I think most did last week and this week, but there’s one I know of near me (Indiana) that’s doing this week and next week. 

[wildphantom]

36 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Are you ok? What's with the positivity? 

 

@CJohn right now