MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

[CJohn]

Migration and Wonka are fucked. 100M and 200M are dead.

 

Anyone But You seems like it is going to end with 80-90M. Impressive considering today's market.

 

Solid ODs for Mean Girls and Beekeeper, even if unspectacular because of how big the share of them are previews.

[CoolioD1]

they should've done the Mean Girls musical a decade ago back when every teen loved Glee and Pitch Perfect.

[M37]

3 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

so this is going to be one of those films like Greatest Showman, Taken, Paul Blart: Mall Cop etc that inexplicably holds well week after week 

Not disputing that ABY has had a strong (and surprising!) run since Xmas, but think we need to not go too crazy, projecting out a run similar to Showman (for which I remind everyone, had Jan/Feb+ legs better than Avatar)

 

Picking some higher end comps, looking at their gross from this week onward, compared to the post-New Years week baseline, and also how they did for the MLK week (not weekend) specifically 

 

Puss in Boots = 5.08x (+19.6%)

Showman = 4.67x (+0.4%) (see!)

Avatar = 4.29x (-5.1%)

Jumanji WTJ = 3.11x (-14.6%)

NWH = 3.01x (-31.3%)

Night at Museum = 2.88x (-15.3%)

Avatar 2 = 2.67x (-22.6%)

 

Fairly strong correlation between the MLK hold and overall legs that follow. ABY needs a 3.67x from this past weeks $14M to reach $100M, and I would probably set expectations closer to Jumanji WTJ/Museum type legs (including a 10-15% or so drop for this week), getting to to $90M+ (3x), with a shot a $100M

Edited January 13 by M37

[LegendaryBen]

26 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Migration and Wonka are fucked. 100M and 200M are dead.

 

Anyone But You seems like it is going to end with 80-90M. Impressive considering today's market.

 

Solid ODs for Mean Girls and Beekeeper, even if unspectacular because of how big the share of them are previews.

Not just yet for Migration and Wonka. If they do not stabilize next weekend (it has zero competition for at least the rest of the month), then they are dead.

 

Even though ABY reaching 80-90m is awesome, it still has a chance at 100m.

 

Mean Girls will finish at 70m and Beekeeper at 50m at this pace. Expected more considering their fantastic previews for sure.

[Borobudur]

20 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Migration and Wonka are fucked. 100M and 200M are dead.

 

Anyone But You seems like it is going to end with 80-90M. Impressive considering today's market.

 

Solid ODs for Mean Girls and Beekeeper, even if unspectacular because of how big the share of them are previews.

I don't think neither will miss 100m and 200m, just they are no longer comfortably passing them.

[shachi86]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

 

$50M ✅

 

 

$3.7M more will put it in the top 3 highest-grossing foreign movies at the North American box office.

[HummingLemon496]

I don't think Aquaman gets to 120 domestic now. Could be wrong though

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I don't think neither will miss 100m and 200m, just they are no longer comfortably passing them.

Yeah they both should pass due to the  complete wasteland of a release schedule  for the next month and a half.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

Everything except Anyone But You is having horrendous holds

 

Platform releases are holding well too. I said yesterday that Poor Things was going to outgross TCP this weekend and now we know it beat it on Friday. From half the theaters. Without exaggeration TCP is competing with The Marvels and The Flash for the worst theatrical run. Maybe stop putting The in the title?

 

 

2 hours ago, Kon said:

The movie is called Anyone But You after all.

 

Funny and brilliant. 

[John Marston]

16 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Yeah they both should pass due to the  complete wasteland of a release schedule  for the next month and a half.

also snowstorms depressed this weekend so maybe we will have better than average holds next weekens

[John Marston]

so Anyone But You is locked to beat  The Marvels? Hilarious 
 

Also Anyone But You won’t help Madame Web like some are suggesting. That movie is making the same mistake as The Marvels for what is trying to be a female appealing movie. Not hot male lead 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

so Anyone But You is locked to beat  The Marvels? Hilarious 
 

Also Anyone But You won’t help Madame Web like some are suggesting. That movie is making the same mistake as The Marvels for what is trying to be a female appealing movie. Not hot male lead 

 

what's really hilarious is that it's considered hilarious. In a normal world, anyone would guess that ABY would be big with women (romcom, fashionable female lead, hot male lead) while a nerd movie would not. And yet here we are.

[Eric Prime]

10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

so Anyone But You is locked to beat  The Marvels? Hilarious 
 

Also Anyone But You won’t help Madame Web like some are suggesting. That movie is making the same mistake as The Marvels for what is trying to be a female appealing movie. Not hot male lead 

A lot of y’all’s obsession with The Marvels bombing is getting pretty darn old if you ask me. And weird.

[Maggie]

10 minutes ago, John Marston said:

so Anyone But You is locked to beat  The Marvels? Hilarious 
 

Also Anyone But You won’t help Madame Web like some are suggesting. That movie is making the same mistake as The Marvels for what is trying to be a female appealing movie. Not hot male lead 

If only it were that easy...

 

I don't think casting a hot male lead is the ultimate solution. These type of movies (cbm) are not appealing anymore to anyone

Edited January 13 by Maggie

[Valonqar]

Just want to point out that we downplay Powell in ABY's success. Was flipping streaming channels and saw that some movie of his I've never heard of is #2 on Netflix coattailing Netflix release of TGM and ABY in theaters. So while concept is the king - Madam Web looks worse than Morbius so doubtful Sweeney can polish that turd - right actors in the right concept are added value.

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Eric George said:

A lot of y’all’s obsession with The Marvels bombing is getting pretty darn old if you ask me. And weird.

 

Nah, people are obsessed with the biggest bombs just like they are obsessed with the biggest hits. So you hear about both a lot. I still remember the time when Marvel rereleased Endgame to beat Avatar. And then Avatar got a rerelease to beat Endgame. Likewise, we are always on a lookout for what's gonna bomb worse than the previous biggest bomb. This year was quite productive in that regard. 

[John Marston]

12 minutes ago, Eric George said:

A lot of y’all’s obsession with The Marvels bombing is getting pretty darn old if you ask me. And weird.

 

 

 I mean it is one of the biggest bombs of all time and dropped 90% from its predecessor. It’s probably one of the most iconic moments in box office history 

[TwoMisfits]

So, the weather is bad enough in the middle of the country that KC can't sell playoff tickets for more than $30 and Buffalo has canceled their Sunday afternoon NFL playoff game til Monday night...SO, any movie appealing to the middle of the country will be torched this weekend...

[Eric Prime]

9 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Nah, people are obsessed with the biggest bombs just like they are obsessed with the biggest hits. So you hear about both a lot. I still remember the time when Marvel rereleased Endgame to beat Avatar. And then Avatar got a rerelease to beat Endgame. Likewise, we are always on a lookout for what's gonna bomb worse than the previous biggest bomb. This year was quite productive in that regard. 

 

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 I mean it is one of the biggest bombs of all time and dropped 90% from its predecessor. It’s probably one of the most iconic moments in box office history 

Cool. I still think it’s annoying and I think this forum would be a million times better if we went away from this insipid practice where some movie becomes the new whipping boy and we endlessly go on and on and on about how much of a failure it is. Offers nothing of value and is beyond irritating.

[emoviefan]

16 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Just want to point out that we downplay Powell in ABY's success. Was flipping streaming channels and saw that some movie of his I've never heard of is #2 on Netflix coattailing Netflix release of TGM and ABY in theaters. So while concept is the king - Madam Web looks worse than Morbius so doubtful Sweeney can polish that turd - right actors in the right concept are added value.

Once again Universal is paying attention for their Twisters marketing.