JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[KP1025]

I guess the Spider-Verse underperformance isn't totally unexpected. Aside from a few exceptions, CBMs have never been that successful in Japan. Add to that an animation style that is very Western and unfamiliar, and I can see why audiences weren't interested. 

 

Same goes for Alita bombing like all Hollywood live-action anime/manga adaptations. Will finish around Ghost in the Shell numbers ($9-10 million).

Edited March 9, 2019 by KP1025

[salvador-232]

Corpse: 

 

(C)藤子プロ・小学館・テレビ朝日・シンエイ・ADK 2019

Weekend Estimates (03/09-10)
01 (01) ¥605,000,000 ($5.4 million), -13%, ¥1,660,000,000 ($14.9 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥269,000,000 ($2.4 million), -04%, ¥1,495,000,000 ($13.5 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK3
03 (03) ¥181,000,000 ($1.6 million), -10%, ¥695,000,000 ($6.3 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK2
04 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) NEW
05 (---) ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) NEW
06 (06) ¥x78,000,000 ($700,000), -19%, ¥12,345,000,000 ($110.7 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK18
07 (05) ¥x69,000,000 ($620,000), -38%, ¥540,000,000 ($4.8 million), My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkei) WK3
08 (04) ¥x61,000,000 ($545,000), -51%, ¥845,000,000 ($7.7 million), Alita: Battle Angel (Fox) WK3
09 (07) ¥x66,000,000 ($590,000), -27%, ¥1,055,000,000 ($9.5 million), Fortuna's Eye (Toho) WK4
10 (---) ¥x55,000,000 ($495,000), 0, ¥x90,000,000 ($805,000), Psycho Pass: Case 3 - Beyond the Love & Hate (Toho Video Division) NEW

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration goes completely unchallenged for its #1 position, and based on estimates, achieved the second best second weekend decline in the franchise (since 2000, anyway), only behind Stand By Me, Doraemon. So, technically, it had the best second weekend hold in the main series of films in the franchise. Its cumulative total could be less than ¥100 million behind last year's film after two weeks, so this year's entry could certainly exceed ¥5 billion again, making it only the third film in the long-running franchise to reach the blockbuster milestone. 

>Tonde Saitama has an incredible third weekend hold, and earns a third weekend that's higher than its opening weekend (it increased last weekend). This film really came out of nowhere as I said on Friday, and could very well end up with one of the best runs of 2019.

>Green Book holds very strong in third place, and will no doubt become one of the highest grossing Best Picture winners in quite some time (since The King's Speech, I believe).

>Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse and The Mule are in a very close race to round out the Top 5, and we'll need to wait for actuals to determine which film came out on top. I believe Spider-Man will slightly edge out the fourth place debut in revenue, but I expect The Mule will beat slightly beat it in admissions.

And for those that follow the Japan box office closely, you may be wondering why the new Ultraman film isn't included in my estimates. It came in 8th place in admissions at the usual locations, so that should be enough for a Top 10 debut; however, a whopping 95% of its total theater count is apart of the usual locations (instead of the usual ~70%), meaning nearly all of its weekend admissions are already available. I'm confident that it didn't break ¥50 million because of this.

[Mr Impossible]

Might we see a breakout with Green Book?

[salvador-232]

Corpse:

Weekend Actuals (03/09-10)
01 (01) ¥612,046,700 ($5.5 million), -12%, ¥1,491,610,300 ($13.5 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥270,444,500 ($2.4 million), -03%, ¥1,534,444,100 ($13.9 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK3
03 (03) ¥189,504,600 ($1.7 million), -06%, ¥755,464,600 ($6.8 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK2
04 (---) ¥160,052,800 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥253,770,000 ($2.3 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) NEW
05 (---) ¥146,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥196,867,900 ($1.8 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) NEW
06 (06) ¥x79,202,800 ($711,000), -18%, ¥12,361,733,480 ($110.8 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK18
07 (05) ¥x70,047,550 ($629,000), -37%, ¥540,721,250 ($4.8 million), My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkei) WK3
08 (07) ¥x67,200,900 ($603,000), -25%, ¥1,073,362,400 ($9.6 million), Fortuna's Eye (Toho) WK4
09 (04) ¥x58,315,500 ($523,000), -54%, ¥843,394,100 ($7.7 million), Alita: Battle Angel (Fox) WK3
10 (---) ¥x57,500,000 ($516,000), 0, ¥x98,001,400 ($879,000), Psycho Pass: Case 3 - Beyond the Love & Hate (Toho Video Division) NEW
11 (---) ¥x57,000,000 ($512,000), 0, ¥x57,000,000 ($511,000), Ultraman R/B: Select! The Crystal of Bond (Shochiku) NEW
12 (08) ¥x56,977,300 ($511,000), -38%, ¥1,328,388,620 ($12.1 million), City Hunter: Shinkuku Private Eyes (Aniplex) WK5
13 (09) ¥x51,680,000 ($464,000), -36%, ¥4,379,577,000 ($40.0 million), Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK8
14 (12) x¥37,935,000 ($341,000), -18%, ¥894,563,400 ($8.1 million), Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Showgate) WK5

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration goes completely unchallenged for its #1 position, and achieves the second best second weekend decline in the franchise (since 2000, anyway), only behind Stand By Me, Doraemon. Its cumulative total is 13% behind last year's film, an improvement upon the 17% of its opening weekend. The thirty-ninth entry in the long-running franchise is on track for a total north of ¥4.5 billion ($40 million+), but I wouldn't rule out a ¥5 billion ($45 million+) total just yet. 

>Tonde Saitama has an incredible third weekend hold, and earns a third weekend that's higher than its opening weekend (it increased last weekend). This film really came out of nowhere as I said on Friday, and could very well end up with one of the best runs of 2019.

>Green Book holds very strong in third place, and is on track to become the highest grossing Best Picture winner since 2011's The King's Speech. Very impressive.

>Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse debuts in fourth place (fifth in admissions), selling 98,074 admissions over the weekend frame across 337 screens, and reaching 151,157 admissions since opening on Friday (plus its limited previews last week). I'd consider this a fairly disappointing start, though it's solid enough for a non-Disney/Pixar imported animated release in the market. Expectations were likely just set for a higher performance due to it winning Best Animated Film this year at the Oscars. 

>The Mule comes in fifth place (fourth in admissions), selling a decent 116,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 238 screens, and reaching 157,978 admissions since opening on Friday. This is a solid start that may result in it achieving the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone, making Japan its second strongest international market behind France.

>Bohemain Rhapsody keeps on entertaining Japanese moviegoers, as it enjoys its eighteenth-consecutive week in the top 10 thanks to another great hold. It will surpass Beauty and the Beast (2017) in a few days to become the 18th highest grossing film ever.

>Alita: Battle Angel experiences another harsh decline, this time managing to drop over 50%... I actually don't believe it's going to reach the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone now, and will finish its run as a pretty significant bomb in the market.

>The bottom of the Top 10 is a little unclear at the moment, as the weekend numbers for Psycho Pass and Ultraman are estimates. The weekend rankings (revenue) have Psycho Pass in tenth place and Ultraman in eleventh place, below Alita, but both films are above Alita in the weekend rankings (admissions). And all three films are ahead of City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes in revenue and admissions, meaning there's a very, very small margin of just ¥1,338,200 ($12,000) separating all four films.

[KP1025]

Given the quality of the film, I did not see Alita finishing under Ghost in the Shell. Like other markets minus China, Alita just could not find an audience beyond the fans. 

[John Marston]

Green Book over Alita in Japan? Now that’s some funny shit

[UserHN]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Green Book over Alita in Japan? Now that’s some funny shit

I read a comment somewhere predicting Alita to gross $150M in Japan.

[Zakiyyah6]

Alita's failure in Japan is not exactly an all time shocker. Why would Japan care about our adaptions of their material? They didn't care about Power Rangers either.

Edited March 14, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[meriodejaneiro]

20 minutes ago, UserHN said:

I read a comment somewhere predicting Alita to gross $150M in Japan.

Easy to figure out who was it.

[Aurora]

Hi! I'm just wondering does any Japan box office expert think that Detective Pikachu will be a giant hit there? I know Japan aren't big fans of Western movie adaptations of their properties, and I can only speak for the Japanese friends I know but they all felt indifferent towards the trailer.

Edited March 15, 2019 by Aurora

[KP1025]

12 minutes ago, Aurora said:

Hi! I'm just wondering does any Japan box office expert think that Detective Pikachu will be a giant hit there? I know Japan aren't big fans of Western movie adaptations of their properties, and I can only speak for the Japanese friends I know but they all felt indifferent towards the trailer.

 

That is also what Corpse (the main Japan box office analyst) had to say. Hype doesn't seem high for the movie itself, and he is currently predicting a gross similar to other animated Pokemon films ($30 million range). Though the Pokemon films in Japan skew very young, and he warned the live-action nature could very well turn off the main audience too (especially with such a Western feel). With that said, anything significantly over $10 million (where Hollywood live-action remakes of anime/manga properties typically finish) would be good for Detective Pikachu.

[UserHN]

18 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

That is also what Corpse (the main Japan box office analyst) had to say. Hype doesn't seem high for the movie itself, and he is currently predicting a gross similar to other animated Pokemon films ($30 million range). Though the Pokemon films in Japan skew very young, and he warned the live-action nature could very well turn off the main audience too (especially with such a Western feel). With that said, anything significantly over $10 million (where Hollywood live-action remakes of anime/manga properties typically finish) would be good for Detective Pikachu.

I have this feeling that Detective Pikachu will appeal more to Chinese audiences than Japanese (side-eyeing the results for GITS and Alita there). Maybe Pikachu will do $200M+ in China. They seem to like fun and action-packed movies there. 

[catlover]

4 hours ago, Aurora said:

Hi! I'm just wondering does any Japan box office expert think that Detective Pikachu will be a giant hit there? I know Japan aren't big fans of Western movie adaptations of their properties, and I can only speak for the Japanese friends I know but they all felt indifferent towards the trailer.

I've seen a video on youtube where this girl was asking people on the street in Japan to watch Detective Pikachu's trailer and tell her what they think. First of all, they didn't even know that the movie was coming out. Some of their comments were "What is this?", "That's weird/scary", "That looks different", "It's more for adults than for children" "Why is Pikachu so fluffy?". They didn't explicitly say whether they liked it or not, but based on this, I'm not expecting big numbers from Japan.

[Olive]

CM OD 80-90% bigger than Aquaman last month.

With Spring holiday, I think 15M USD is very likely.

[lor15]

43 minutes ago, Olive said:

CM OD 80-90% bigger than Aquaman last month.

With Spring holiday, I think 15M USD is very likely.

That was kind of unexpected, Japan giving some love to Carol is great ❤️

[Valonqar]

I hope it goes up to 20M at least. this is a great news as it started to rocover in China too. 

[KP1025]

The Goose effect? Japan loves cats. 😂

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, KP1025 said:

The Goose effect? Japan loves cats. 😂

Oh yeah. 👿

[Olive]

more like spring holiday boost, so weekend increase won't be as strong.

Still, we can expect 2B yen as long as it doesn't have bad legs like China

Edited March 15, 2019 by Olive

[Stewart]

Corpse:

 

(C)Marvel Studios 20

Weekend Forecast (03/16-17)
01 (---) ¥525,000,000 ($4.7 million), 0, ¥730,000,000 ($6.5 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥465,000,000 ($4.2 million), -24%, ¥2,075,000,000 ($18.7 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
03 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.2 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) NEW
04 (02) ¥235,000,000 ($2.1 million), -13%, ¥2,025,000,000 ($18.2 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK4
05 (03) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), -26%, ¥1,100,000,000 ($9.9 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK3
06 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($895,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) NEW
07 (04) ¥x96,000,000 ($860,000), -40%, ¥500,000,000 ($4.5 million), Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony) WK2
08 (05) ¥x92,000,000 ($820,000), -37%, ¥445,000,000 ($4.0 million), The Mule (Warner Bros.) WK2
09 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($670,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) NEW
10 (06) ¥x55,000,000 ($490,000), -30%, ¥12,505,000,000 ($112.1 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK19

>Captain Marvel is on course to debut at the #1 spot this weekend, dethroning Doraemon which seemed poised to reign atop the weekend box office until April. And not only will Ms. Marvel likely take the #1 spot, her film is well on track to claim the biggest opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film outside of the Avengers/Spider-Man franchises. 

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration will likely slip to second place in its third weekend, but pre-sales are indicating it might match/beat the third weekend of last year's film. If it does drop around 25%, and obviously any hold that's better than that, its chances of reaching the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone go up significantly. 

>Precure Miracle Universe is the 26th entry in the overall Precure film franchise, and it's looking to continue the success the series regained last year and should debut with one of the biggest debuts in the franchise.