Weekend Discussion: IM3 @ 175.3m wknd est

[ChD]

15-18M midnights ?

 

15.6, announced by Disney

[kayumanggi]

15-18M midnights ?

 

15.6 M 9 PM onwards.

[ChD]

That seems pretty meh. Was thinking 20M at least.

 

Higher than Avengers? No chance..

[redfirebird2008]

I still don't buy that it's completely related to Aurora. This gives the studios more money upfront because they get a bigger cut of the opening weekend gross. It's debatable as to how much it really adds, but, it's an advantage for them to do it this way. Hopefully exhibitors push back if they try to start opening any earlier.

 

I agree with you on your theory. They used the Aurora situation as a loophole to boost the number of showtimes during the "weekend."

[Shawn Robbins]

I don't think that's best case. Could go higher.

 

Well, maybe not "best" but in the upper end. A $70m Friday would give it a 22.3% preview share. That's lower than Avengers, which didn't even have pre-midnight shows. In theory, that share should increase for IM3 (Avengers had a little over 23%).

[Lordmandeep]

Friday should be over 65 million, remember Friday day business all has to come in and we all know with Marvel films, most of action happens Friday night and Saturday...

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Higher than Avengers? No chance..

I think this movie has more off a rush factor.

[zenithtim]

That's a best case scenario, though. I think $60m Fri is more likely than $70m.

 

You might be right, buy I think it should do 50M+ today without the midnights.

[redfirebird2008]

Does Mojo also club it together. I am assuming with access to Rentrak its possible to know exactly what the pre-midnight gross is?

 

Anyway start is rock solid but OW record aint happening. Probably looking at 160-180M based on how friday goes.

 

 

Subers has not been splitting it out. If Brandon Gray was still running BOM, we might have a decent chance of a split. He was the one who pushed back against WB and actually got them to cough up a split estimate for the Matrix Reloaded previews. But I will also say that despite the infamous asterisk on TF2's opening, he still reported it the same as the studio instead of splitting it out. He just put the funniest asterisk ever at the end of the article reporting the numbers.

[keysersoze123]

while number of show can be increased they cannot play 9Pm like a midnight as its tough to finish all existing shows before 9Pm. So they just keep adding lots of show between 9-12. But post midnight shows are also reduced. A true midnight monster plays at all screens in most major markets.

 

Once I see a movie(may be CF) do much better with midnights I will change my mind.

[Lordmandeep]

I think this movie has more off a rush factor.

 

 

 

Where did you get that silly idea?

[RichWS]

I said in last Friday's thread that I expected this one to be at 50 pages by 7 EST tonight. I now expect 100 pages.

 

Get to work, gentlemen.

[Noctis]

I can't wait for CF. 

[Fake]

Well, maybe not "best" but in the upper end. A $70m Friday would give it a 22.3% preview share. That's lower than Avengers, which didn't even have pre-midnight shows. In theory, that share should increase for IM3 (Avengers had a little over 23%).

"in theory" yeah.... but midnights are not as popular as they were 1 year earlier.I was referring more to the Saturday hold though. Should see an increase IMO (from Friday minus previews).70m Friday would be indeed very good but I can see it getting 170m from there.

[kayumanggi]

'Iron Man 3' has already earned $345.4M overseas, which is more than either of the first two 'Iron Man' movies

https://twitter.com/boxofficemojo/status/330357503927934978

 

That's just amazing. IRON MAN lll's final overseas gross is gonna be higher than the combined totals of the first two.

[Shawn Robbins]

Every site clubs it together in the data because if we don't, the studios wouldn't be so keen to report to them/us.

[CoolioD1]

I can't wait for CF. 

no1currs atm. IM3 or GTFO.

[keysersoze123]

Subers has not been splitting it out. If Brandon Gray was still running BOM, we might have a decent chance of a split. He was the one who pushed back against WB and actually got them to cough up a split estimate for the Matrix Reloaded previews. But I will also say that despite the infamous asterisk on TF2's opening, he still reported it the same as the studio instead of splitting it out. He just put the funniest asterisk ever at the end of the article reporting the numbers.

 

That site has really gone to dogs for a while :-( I dont even go to the site anymore )

[#ED]

70M!?

[redfirebird2008]

I think my $175m prediction is looking pretty decent right now. IM3's Thursday/midnight total was 83.42% of Avengers' midnight total. That would give it a $173m total after Sunday if the trend continues.