Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Royce]

Based on the synopsis, I feel like one of Jake and Neytiri's children will die. ("tragedies they endure")

Which is why Zoe Saldana is moved to tears while watching the movie.

 

Maybe that will also bring the tension and drama between Neytiri and Spider (their sort of adopted human kid).

Jon Landau already revealed that she sees Spider as "one of the sky people who destroyed her home and killed her father" and so having her actual child die will probably heighten that resentment towards him even though he didn't cause the death of the child.

Of course these are just theories.

[NCsoft]

I am good with Avatar: The Way of Water, but I'm a bit worried about Avatar: The Seed Bearer....🤨

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think most countries have had a good degree of Covid-aided ticket price inflation, so probably it'll do higher than what it would have without Covid. 

wait... so the current climate is better for making money than it would have been without covid? This is my first time hearing this. Though like I said I haven't been following box office since covid.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, NCsoft said:

I am good with Avatar: The Way of Water, but I'm a bit worried about Avatar: The Seed Bearer....🤨

sex sells 🤣

 

Yeah it is a pretty strange name I can only agree, it's not confirmed yet tho

[AniNate]

1 minute ago, NCsoft said:

I am good with Avatar: The Way of Water, but I'm a bit worried about Avatar: The Seed Bearer....🤨

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

wait... so the current climate is better for making money than it would have been without covid? This is my first time hearing this. Though like I said I haven't been following box office since covid.

My guess is it will be in December, unless there's another catastrophe wave. 

[Elessar]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

So no one knows how box office works anymore???

 

Pretty much.

 

But seriously, i think NWH has showed us what is possible box office wise. As long as Avatar 2 does $2 billion sans China i will be happy. Less DOM compared to NWH but more OS.

[Reddroast]

5 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I am good with Avatar: The Way of Water, but I'm a bit worried about Avatar: The Seed Bearer....🤨

Now that's a red flag

[Royce]

3 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I am good with Avatar: The Way of Water, but I'm a bit worried about Avatar: The Seed Bearer....🤨

 

MTE

I've always liked The Way of Water since the rumored titles came out years ago but I've always disliked the other 3 titles as well

 

I also thought the sequels would be called "Avatars" to sort of differentiate them from the original and make them more standalone but I guess that's too much of a change for the brand haha (for the parks and the video game as well)

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Pretty much.

 

But seriously, i think NWH has showed us what is possible box office wise. As long as Avatar 2 does $2 billion sans China i will be happy. Less DOM compared to NWH but more OS.

Well I can't see a way it makes less than spiderman domestically, that would be obscene. That movie is good but not special in anyway.

 

China was supposed to be gathering a billion, they're having covid issues right now aren't they. Also its hard to know if it will be allowed to play fully there.

[dudalb]

8 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

My guess is it will be in December, unless there's another catastrophe wave. 

Or if the situation with Russia goes really, really, bad.....

[Reddroast]

20 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

This is going to be a "fun" 8 months I can tell. Good luck mods, and God speed. And may you have a suitable amount of liquor to get through this. 

I fully expect to thread banned at somepoint lol.

[YM!]

21 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

It was less than 5 minutes of footage I believe

 

Is that the Avatar 3B train, or the A:WAW 3B train?

The latter

[IronJimbo]

Just now, YourMother said:

The latter

Nice.

 

Why not join both trains? choo choo

[NCsoft]

57 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

CALLING PEOPLE WHO BEEN FOLLOWING COVID BOX OFFICE

 

Say if Avatar was to do ~4.5 billies in 2022, in an alternate universe where covid never existed.

 

What would that look like in our covid ridden universe?

Here is what I think:

Before the whole Covid situation, I had Avatar 2 at 3.7B worldwide, with going over 4B entirely a legitimate possibility. This was based on the thinking that it stays ~Flat in North America, moderate decline in Europe, grow massively in developing markets in Asia and Latin America, and do ~ $1B in China. With global market expansion + inflation + increase in premier formats, I thought Avatar comparable would've been at 4B+ in the 2020s, only question was would Avatar 2 be a Avatar level success.

 

I am not at all confident about 3.7B anymore, I'm still fairly bullish in its domestic performance and am really bullish in its Asian and other growing markets prospects, No Way Home's performance suggests that box office receipts for top level "must see" blockbusters is nearing normal level plus inflation, the markets are so top heavy and it's benefiting the biggest fish in the sea.

 

The problem is China, as it always was:

Chinese market currently is a shadow of its former self, with strict lock downs and brutal zero-Covid policy,  functioning at 40% of theatres actually opening, but the box office might only be at like 15%. The Batman, fantastic beast and uncharted were each getting only $20M or so, which is abysmal. Under this circumstances, there is like no way that Avatar 2 can gross $800M to $1.2B in China like we thought a few years ago, which would've been easy because even Battle of Lake ChangJin was getting $900M+. 

The thing is, there is no guarantee that China will recover by the end of year at all, because the CCP seems determine to keep this "whack a mole" zero-covid policy going and there's no appetite for theatre going at all.

On the other hand, even if we discount this lockdown problem, Chinese nationalism has been dialed up so much recently, that there is considerable animosity toward western films and themes, people's attitude has gradually changed and the recent ban on pretty much all Marvel films encouraged that attitude as well, that Endgame $650M haul in China might have been a last hurrah for Hollywood. In fact, there is no guarantee that Avatar 2 will be released in China, period. 

 

Since it is impossible to predict China, I'm going with a pessimistic "allowed released in a hostile market" situation and predict Avatar 2 does only $200M to $250M in China.

Worldwide total: 2.8 to 3.2B is what I'm currently feeling, which would be both a fantastic performance given the conditions, but a bit anticlimactic for us fans. 

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by NCsoft

[Lothar]

Where's the trailer. 

 

[hw64]

27 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Since it is impossible to predict China, I'm going with a pessimistic "allowed released in a hostile market" situation and predict Avatar 2 does only $200M to $250M in China.

Worldwide total: 2.8 to 3.2B is what I'm currently feeling, which would be both a fantastic performance given the conditions, but a bit anticlimactic for us fans. 

 

 

Despite China worries, you're still pretty bullish everywhere else, which is nice to see.

[TheDude391]

19 minutes ago, Lothar said:

Where's the trailer. 

 

Debuting with Dr Strange 2 then dropping online a week later.

[The Panda]

I told Disney to make movies horny again and they responded with Turning Red and Avatar: The Seed Bearer. Disney listens to the people!

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/24/2020 at 8:46 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Fanwars aside, my serious prediction for Avatar 2 will be as follow.

 

China: I know this is a wild card. The Hollywood box office in China has increased from 100mn admits in 2010 to 560mn last year though it peaked at 670mn in 2017 but people seems to assume that the biggest film increase is also at same rate. By 2017, the market increased for Hollywood films at 6.7x but biggest film increased by 2.8x only.Now there are two reasons for that, One the number of screens has increased manifold but population is still around the same. In 2010, Avatar would have released on 4000 screens only but had 75mn plus seats to fill in its run, so seats were still there and people were still there, but it had 26mn viewers & Two the market increased due to more films increasing and basically films which appeal was less in 2010 was getting more audience by 2017. The biggest Hollywood watched film in China is at 87mn, I don't think Avatar 2 will go much higher. Even if that 87mn is matched, the gross value is unlikely because Endgame had a fanbase to pay the high prices which general audience won't. The ATP in China is roughly ¥35-38, Endgame was ¥49. At 87mn, Avatar 2 will be at ¥3.3Bn approx i.e. $470mn. And frankly speaking I have my doubts on whether it can really go for 87mn. And regarding 3D, well 90% plus of box office is in 3D for almost all films, as 3D is force fed. So about $475mn (+/-20%).

 

USA: Avatar had 72mn viewers in USA/Canada. Now no film with 60mn plus viewers, had its sequel increase except Endgame but that was kind of like MCU thing, in time increasing. TDK sequel fell from 67mn to 50mn. JW sequel fell from 67mn to 42mn. TFA from 93mn to 62mn, so you get it. I don't think Avatar 2 will be exception either. Expecting at least 20% decline in viewership will account to 58mn at 2021 prices, which will be low post Covid and assuming a decent 3D share for 30-40%, well should be able to gross $625mn. If the WoM ain't great, which is unlikely though, I won't be surprised with similar to The Lion King numbers.

 

Europe: Now this is the region I expect a big drop. Two factors, one ER is shit and two viewership is down in majority countries with low inflation. Avatar had 93mn viewers in Europe which at Endgame ticket rates is about $810mn Approx as compared to $1.1Bn in 2009. Besides, I think it getting 75mn viewers will be a max. Expecting $650mn Approx.

 

Latin America: Now this is the market which will suffer be primarily due to exchange rates. Avatar grossed $152 million in this region but even at Endgame ticket rates, it is less than $130mn today. Endgame grossed $260mn in the region compared to $190mn of The Avengers, even though admissions almost doubled. I don't think Avatar 2 will be doubling its admissions, in fact Infinity War admissions is best it can hope for. I expect around $180mn with exchange rate even going shittier.

 

Asia-Japan: This will be the market which will see the growth. I can totally put Infinity War numbers for it here. Roughly 60mn admits and a gross of ~$325mn.

 

Japan and Australia: Well these two suffers from ER and not much of inflation with usual moviegoing decline. Japan is expected to gross $100mn while Australia shall be around $75mn.

 

Worldwide: $2425mn ($2000-2700mn)

 

That said, I don't see any reason that film fail to cross $2 Billion unless its shit or Post Covid nobody want to go to theaters and all. 

I think I did changed my prediction from this 2 year old post last year, but doing it again.

China - ATP has risen in last 2 years immensely. Can even go for 55 ATP. +/-$750M

USA - 3D is back on top of recent inflation. If NWH on XMAS can do $800M, there is not much to think Avatar can't do. +/-800M
Europe - If NWH can do $440M in Europe on XMAS, Avatar 2 can certainly do $700M or so. +/-$750M

LATAM - +/-$225M

Asia-Japan - +/-$375M

Middle East - +/- $100M

Japan + ANZ - +/-$180M

~$3.1B
 

 

Edited August 31, 2022 by charlie Jatinder