Weekend Numbers Jan 23-25 pg 46(AS 64 mill, Mom's cookies 15)

[mahnamahna]

Sniper will end up as 1 of the top 5 highest grossing war movies ever at the U.S. box office, after adjusting for ticket prices.  It is not going to catch up with MASH, Saving Private Ryan, or Bridge on The River Kwai, but it is still massive.  Will definitely get to 325.  Average ticket price today is about $9....I think it was about $4.50 back during the 80s.

The Best Years of Our Lives - $456 million 

The Bridge on the River Kwai - $451 million 

MASH - $445 million

Sergeant York - $399 million

Saving Private Ryan - $380 million 

Patton - $330 million 

 

I see Sniper topping Ryan, Patton and York at this point easily. A $70 million+ 2nd weekend with minimal competition until March 13? How does it miss $400 million at this point? Lol 

 

My wildest (but feasible at this point) prediction is $560-565 million for its finish, so it would end up topping all of those handily adjusted for inflation and become the war film that has sold the most tickets of all time. Even with the IMAX argument, it still would sell 1m-3m more tickets than Best Years without large format theaters. 

 

$72 million ($207 million) 

$51 million ($284 million)

$42.5 million ($349 million)

$39 million/$48 million ($416 million)

$28.5 million ($453 million)

$21 million ($484 million)

$16.5 million ($510 million)

$10 million ($527 million)

$8 million ($540 million)

$6.5 million ($551 million)

$3.5 million ($557 million)

$2 million ($560 million)

$1 million ($561 million)

$566 million DOM 

[MovieMan89]

AS beating Saving Private Ryan's admissions will be truly nauseating if it happens.

[Ozymandias]

If Sniper makes 60m(which might be on the low end) this weekend, it will be 36m ahead of Skyfall at the same point.

[Robertron]

If AS hits 21m for Friday then I'm officially done.

Box office rule book out the window.

[CoolioD1]

AS beating Saving Private Ryan's admissions will be truly nauseating if it happens.

Eh. Both movies are only like a B- anyway.

[Mattrek]

Honestly with WOM and numbers like this I think we should start talking 400m. Oh and I'm in for 300m.

There's a a few differences then regular big openers here: 1. It's rated R. Other then horror most R rated films tend to have really good legs, because it's target audience doesn't rush out on OW to see it. 2. There will be an Oscar boost and at this point I think we have a front runner for best picture. 3. A+ Cinemascore movies are very rare and the vast vast majority have legs that are incredible. 4. This is the first film since The Blindside (that I can think of) that has gotten Middle America, the south and both coasts all interested in the same film from smaller rural towns to big urban cities, which means drops should be softer, because WOM has the ability to reach more people than most super hero or action movies do. 5. WOM is through the stratosphere and Twitter and Facebook are abuzz.

I'm telling you right now this run is going to shock us all.

After the first weekend I knew this was going to explode with legs of steel.

[Robertron]

The Best Years of Our Lives - $456 million 

The Bridge on the River Kwai - $451 million 

MASH - $445 million

Sergeant York - $399 million

Saving Private Ryan - $380 million 

Patton - $330 million 

 

I see Sniper topping Ryan, Patton and York at this point easily. A $70 million+ 2nd weekend with minimal competition until March 13? How does it miss $400 million at this point? Lol 

 

My wildest (but feasible at this point) prediction is $560-565 million for its finish, so it would end up topping all of those handily adjusted for inflation and become the war film that has sold the most tickets of all time. Even with the IMAX argument, it still would sell 1m-3m more tickets than Best Years without large format theaters. 

 

$72 million ($207 million) 

$51 million ($284 million)

$42.5 million ($349 million)

$39 million/$48 million ($416 million)

$28.5 million ($453 million)

$21 million ($484 million)

$16.5 million ($510 million)

$10 million ($527 million)

$8 million ($540 million)

$6.5 million ($551 million)

$3.5 million ($557 million)

$2 million ($560 million)

$1 million ($561 million)

$566 million DOM

SB will see a bigger drop, unfortunately.

[MovieMan89]

Eh. Both movies are only like a B- anyway.

Well, you're half right at least.

[mahnamahna]

AS will lose IMAX in the first weekend of February. IMAX contributed roughly 10% of its gross last weekend.

I highly doubt IMAX will have that much of an effect by that point. By a film's 4th weekend, WOM sinks in. This has already developed some monster legs so two mediocre PG-13 genre films aren't going to have much of an impact. If anything, Sniper will help Jupiter out since WB likely put trailers for it in front of Sniper (I know Fury Road and Heart of the Sea both had spots at numerous showings).

 

I just don't see Sniper dropping above 30% until March after SB weekend. 

[Mattrek]

The big difference being TBS didn't open to massive blockbuster numbers. That's what makes AS so unique and overall confounding.

I think Blindside got middle America first and then spread to the coasts from WOM. That's why its legs were so big. If it was only middle America then it probably would've been in the 100-150 range. Just a theory anyways.

[Fancyarcher]

Strange Magic Vs. Mortdecai: Battle of The Bombs. 

[Jandrew]

I'd rather the "I knew AS would do this" apolgoists every day vs "wahh wahh why is Sniper making so much! It sucks!" apologists everyday. So annoying.

[filmlover]

Eh. Both movies are only like a B- anyway.

You did not just call Saving Private Ryan a B- movie. Oh no.

[RySenkari]

American Sniper's box-office run reminds me of when the guy running the actuals in CAYOM always makes one of his own films make a ridiculous amount of money and everybody whines that he needs to tone it down XD

[MovieMan89]

On the bright side, I guess Torture-porn of the Christ might finally be going down as the #1 grossing R film.

[Chewy]

If Sniper makes 60m(which might be on the low end) this weekend, it will be 36m ahead of Skyfall at the same point.

 

The superbowl will cause a 90% decrease and it'll still miss 300M, tho

[AdamKendall]

Mortdecai ... what a fucking disaster. 

 

What the budget on this film?

[Sam]

I don't even care whether AS is deserving of its gross (which is something no one will agree with others on anyway) at this point, I think its stunning BO performance exceeds the subject of its quality.

So I'll be right here keep getting amazed instead.

[The Futurist]

On the bright side, I guess Torture-porn of the Christ might finally be going down as the #1 grossing R film.

 

Not in attendance though, Jesus is mighty.

[mahnamahna]

The superbowl will cause a 90% decrease and it'll still miss 300M, tho

Lol I know you're joking, but I don't see it dropping more than 40% on SB weekend. Lone Survivor dropped less than 50% and that one didn't take America by storm the way Sniper has. 30-35% seems more likely considering the mega-legs it is developing. Wouldn't be surprised if it matches Avatar's 27% drop. 

 

This could feasibly surpass Passion in attendance though. Or equal it. $495 million is very doable if it gets a $70-75 million 2nd weekend. 

Edited January 23, 2015 by mahnamahna