Weekend Numbers Jan 23-25 pg 46(AS 64 mill, Mom's cookies 15)

[MovieMan89]

The superbowl will cause a 90% decrease and it'll still miss 300M, tho

Don't forget 50 Shades of Grey, which will clearly take away most of its core middle American male audience.

[Noctis]

$21m is such an insane number. That would literally mean a $72m'ish weekend. No way is it going to finish less than $400m.

[mahnamahna]

Don't forget 50 Shades of Grey, which will clearly take away most of its core middle American male audience.

It'd be shocking if Sniper and 50 Shades made the top 5 DOM for 2014/2015 combined. No one saw two mid-level R rated films doing that in this day and age. 

[CoolioD1]

You did not just call Saving Private Ryan a B- movie. Oh no.

You're right. it might be a C+. Is there any movie where the third act undermines the theme of what came before it as much as that one?

[Jandrew]

At the barbershop and dude walked in trying to sell Selma bootlegs. There was a mutual agreement though that its a movie you have to see in theaters. They still bought the bootlegs tho.

Awk im sitting here and have seen AS but not Selma. I feel like a shame to my race. Not really.

[solaris]

Mortdecai ... what a fucking disaster. 

 

What the budget on this film?

 

$60m according to the Hollywood Reporter

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-preview-american-sniper-765687

 

jeez.... what a joke Johnny Depp has become 

[spizzer]

The Best Years of Our Lives - $456 million 

The Bridge on the River Kwai - $451 million 

MASH - $445 million

Sergeant York - $399 million

Saving Private Ryan - $380 million 

Patton - $330 million 

 

I see Sniper topping Ryan, Patton and York at this point easily. A $70 million+ 2nd weekend with minimal competition until March 13? How does it miss $400 million at this point? Lol 

 

My wildest (but feasible at this point) prediction is $560-565 million for its finish, so it would end up topping all of those handily adjusted for inflation and become the war film that has sold the most tickets of all time. Even with the IMAX argument, it still would sell 1m-3m more tickets than Best Years without large format theaters. 

 

$72 million ($207 million) 

$51 million ($284 million)

$42.5 million ($349 million)

$39 million/$48 million ($416 million)

$28.5 million ($453 million)

$21 million ($484 million)

$16.5 million ($510 million)

$10 million ($527 million)

$8 million ($540 million)

$6.5 million ($551 million)

$3.5 million ($557 million)

$2 million ($560 million)

$1 million ($561 million)

$566 million DOM 

 

Yeah, as I said last night, anything over 70M and it's targeting 500, give or take a few.  At this point, a "return to earth" would be more unexpected than it simply staying on track; WOM snowballs and helps with retention, it doesn't just spontaneously disappear/wear-off.

 

Also, I think at this point, no finish can be disappointing.  It's exceeded even the highest pre-release expectations (correct me if I'm wrong) by a margin and we're just getting started.  

[Maxmoser3]

Good early Friday estimates for American Sniper and wow Boy Next Door 10 million OD? That's not bad since I was expecting 5-6 million opening day

[kayumanggi]

A good wow for AS and a bad wow for Depp.

[Noctis]

$60m according to the Hollywood Reporter

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-preview-american-sniper-765687

 

jeez.... what a joke Johnny Depp has become 

 

Good. I can't stand his performances after the first Pirates aside from Sweeney Todd.

[mahnamahna]

Yeah, as I said last night, anything over 70M and it's targeting 500, give or take a few.  At this point, a "return to earth" would be more unexpected than it simply staying on track; WOM snowballs and helps with retention, it doesn't just spontaneously disappear/wear-off.

 

Also, I think at this point, no finish can be disappointing.  It's exceeded even the highest pre-release expectations (correct me if I'm wrong) by a margin and we're just getting started.  

I was expecting a $55-60 million 4 day with a $180-185 million DOM total after buzz started to build up in December, so to possibly triple that figures just astounds me. This is easily more shocking than Blind Side, since that was expected to do $125-150 million if it got Oscar buzz. This was expected by most to do Lone Survivor or Gran Torino numbers.

 

BoxOffice.com predicted a $105 million finish a week before release 

[Jack Nevada]

Johnny Depp.. cmon man

[CoolioD1]

Mortdecai advertising really needed to double down on the mustache and boob grabbing jokes, I think.

[CelestialFairyIX]

I do wish American Sniper sustained and incredible success but I believe $500 million domestic is a bit of a stretch, even for an overtly optimistic individual such as I when it comes to box office predictions and such.  However, if it even does $350 million domestic, barring there are no other major competitors or other surprising break out films, that number is a possibility and the film will be considered the follow up to Frozen's phenomena in my book, domestic-wise.  Then there's that $400 million mark that AS can top if it sustains good legs and the movie just sweeps the nation such as Frozen did but even Frozen took quite awhile and a little shove from WDAS was required before hitting that mark. 

Edited January 23, 2015 by CelestialFairyIX

[Harpospoke]

Wow at #'s.   I can't help feeling AS will be "disappointing" by Monday.

Because there are literally hundreds of dramas or R films or biopics the past decade that are more deserving but had modest or small box office runs. That's why.

The thing is, the public decides what is "deserving".    Every movie ends up making exactly what it "deserves".      We of course rarely agree.  (I know I don't)

 

The Best Years of Our Lives - $456 million 

The Bridge on the River Kwai - $451 million 

MASH - $445 million

Sergeant York - $399 million

Saving Private Ryan - $380 million 

Patton - $330 million 

 

I see Sniper topping Ryan, Patton and York at this point easily. A $70 million+ 2nd weekend with minimal competition until March 13? How does it miss $400 million at this point? Lol 

Cool...I love The Best Years of Our Lives...had no idea it was such a big hit.

[Ando918]

Super Bowl Sunday will be a significant drop.  

 

We also have had a warmer than average winter here in the Midwest with very little snowfall.  That could easily change over the next 2-3 weeks.  This has helped Sniper in much of the center of the country where it is playing well.  January 15th-February 15th is usually the coldest/snowiest time of the year here.  If there was a 12 inch snowstorm hitting New York and Chicago and D.C. we wouldn't be having this conversation about it trying to challenge Private Ryan's 400 million.

[MovieMan89]

It'd be shocking if Sniper and 50 Shades made the top 5 DOM for 2014/2015 combined. No one saw two mid-level R rated films doing that in this day and age. 

Kingsman may also have a decent run if it can clear 25m OW. Critical reception is amazing, so it might be a WOM movie. All of 2015's big successes might be R's until Furious 7 opens.

[Biggestgeekever]

I like how BOM doesn't have a showdown for American Sniper yet. Because really, there is no good comparison for what it's doing right now. It's literally an unprecedented run.

[CoolioD1]

Super Bowl Sunday will be a significant drop.  

 

We also have had a warmer than average winter here in the Midwest with very little snowfall.  That could easily change over the next 2-3 weeks.  This has helped Sniper in much of the center of the country where it is playing well.  January 15th-February 15th is usually the coldest/snowiest time of the year here.  If there was a 12 inch snowstorm hitting New York and Chicago and D.C. we wouldn't be having this conversation about it trying to challenge Private Ryan's 400 million.

I'm gonna be honest, this is the first post of yours in a numbers thread I've seen that isn't vaguely racist in some way.

[Chewy]

Every time a new Depp movie comes out I get more excited for Alice 2

 

Really think we're going to see a historic sequel drop