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WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

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Huh??

 

The last five minutes that literally everyone loves?

 

The last five minutes that take the movie from being a good action movie to the best tearjerker in recent memory?

 

I can't comprehend this.

 

???

Yes, that last 5 mins that made no sense, anti-climatic and rendered the scenes that came before as pointless. People were too busy crying over the dead actor to see any flaws. When that scene made me feel zero emotion I couldn't help but picking up all things illogical.
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BOM does lump in undocumented re-releases for a lot of the pre-1982 stuff. Cinema Treasures' anniversary retrospective articles for some films sometimes have first-run grosses - for example, I was able to get Empire's first-run total, excluding the undocumented 1981 reissue.

Star Wars' first run was $221.3m. Empire's first run was $181.4m.

Those numbers respectively adjust to $806m and $548m. So the drop from first run to first run would actually be $258m. Actually less of a drop than from Menace to Clones or JP to TLW.

Cinema Treasures listed Jaws' first run gross as $192m. That adjusts to $761m. The $77.7m first-run total for Jaws 2 listed on BOM adjusts to $270m. So its drop would be $491m. Still absolutely massive.

Exorcist and Godfather, not sure. Exorcist II was a dud, so even if the adjusted drop without re-releases isn't $726m, it could well be bigger than Jaws. I just can't find first-run info for anything older than Jaws. (Generally, grosses weren't even reported prior to Jaws, only rentals, i.e. the amount of money paid back to the studio by the theaters.)

And if you do count re-releases, each re-release has to be adjusted to its year. That makes it even more difficult.

Comparing the pre-Special Edition adjusted figures of Star Wars and Empire, with each release adjusted by its year, gives us $1.14b for SW and $666m for ESB, or a drop of $474m. Adding the SEs gives us $1.384b for SW and $785m for ESB, for a drop of $599m - basically $600m total between the cumulative admissions of the two.

I can't find the individual re-release figures for Jaws, so I will just take the $802.9m adjusted figure Cinema Treasures had in 2010, and adjust it to the current 2015 price from the average of 2009-10 (since the article was published in summer 2010) which will bring it to about $847m. BOM's cumulative for Jaws 2, so it adjusts to $292m. That gives it a drop of $565m when all is said and done.

Again, can't figure out anything about Exorcist or Godfather. But either way, these were all huge drops, and yet most of them were still big successes and moneymakers (Exorcist II was the only one that was a dud). Jaws 2 fell from its mega blockbuster predecessor to just a big hit (though it was one of those rare occurrences at the time of a movie being a bigger hit OS than it was domestically). But Empire's first-run to first-run admissions drop, by my calculation, comes to 32%. And it wasn't considered a disappointment, because it was a mega hit, and a mega moneymaker (oh, and sequels did not ever increase from the original back then, or even come anywhere close, so there was no such expectation for it to fall short of).

I'm rambling, but these stats are fun!

 

Why are we even comparing movies from the 70's and 80's to movies today?

 

This is why adjusted numbers don't work, especially for much older movies.  GWTW made $1.6B DOM; I'm pretty sure that's impossible to replicate today.

 

You're correct that sequels back then hardly ever increased from the first.  They were never as popular back then as they are today.  Nowadays, maybe half the time they increase from the first.  If AoU stopped at $550M, it wouldn't be too bad, but stopping at $450M is disappointing.  Still a money maker, but still much lower than expected.

Edited by acetabulum7
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Is there a single comic book villain we can't dismantle like that though?

Probably, though going by the movies Loki is particularly easy to dismantle. The character is 100% propped up by Hoddleston's performance.

Edited by Hatebox
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Sequels that dropped in grosses from the first but were actually superior films(My opinions of course):

 

Star Wars/Empire Strikes Back

(One could argue Superman/Superman II,and I used to feel that way, but don't anymore)

Star Trek: TMP/Star Trek II

Spider-Man/Spider-Man 2

Avengers/Avengers AOU(Upon seeing it a second time, I'd say it's slightly better, and make no mistake, I do not think AOU is underrated, more that TA is a bit overrated, mainly because the Chitauri are nothing but a nameless/soulless hoard and the destruction of the control ship was right out of Phantom Menace and Independence Day)

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There's not much playing now. It's really just Avengers: Age of Ultron. There's nothing else that most people want to pay to see. Furious 7 has been out for a while, and after that there's just nothing there.

I know, that's why arguments like "it's the second best second weekend ever!" are meaningless to me.

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RT scores don't help me much.   I enjoyed Interstellar (I assume that's what you meant) more than TDK, TDKR, Inception, and the Prestige....all with higher RT scores.   If it wasn't for that wacky ending, I would have liked it more than AoU!  

 

I know right?   The 2nd highest 2nd weekend of all time...that happens all the time.

 

Man...we should remember this the next time there is a real lull at the box office and we are whining about nothing exciting going on.

+1

 

Indeed it is Interstellar I was talking about. I have no issues with anybody loving/hating any movie. Tastes vary. But the hypocrisy in putting down AOU and propping up other movies with lesser ratings is amazing. As you indicated, I also do not put much faith in critics ratings. 

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Why are we even comparing movies from the 70's and 80's to movies today?

 

This is why adjusted numbers don't work, especially for much older movies.  GWTW made $1.6B DOM; I'm pretty sure that's impossible to replicate today.

 

You're correct that sequels back then hardly ever increased from the first.  They were never as popular back then as they are today.  Nowadays, maybe half the time they increase from the first.  If AoU stopped at $550M, it wouldn't be too bad, but stopping at $450M is disappointing.  Still a money maker, but still much lower than expected.

Its performing much lower than people predicted but people never should have been predicting that high reasonably in the first place. Exclude the 70s and 80s phenomenons and films such as Jurassic Park 2, Pirates 3, TDKR, Shrek 3, Attack of the Clones etc. still had massive drop offs from their predecessors and Avengers was even bigger than them adjusted (Exocet Menace, which is looking to have a bigger drop off than what Avengers), yet they were still huge.

Phenomenons don't increase at the box office. The only phenomenon that's had a small decrease from the predecessor was Spidey 2, and Spidey 2 had the luxury of being a very high praised sequel (more than the first) in a time period where sequels were beginning to become popular, as well as comic book movies, and it still had a near 100m drop adjusted. Spidey 2 was a best case scenario, but Avengers was still bigger than the first Spidey (meaning a larger drop off), and Avengers 2 has been no where near as praised like Spidey 2.

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Its performing much lower than people predicted but people never should have been predicting that high reasonably in the first place. Exclude the 70s and 80s phenomenons and films such as Jurassic Park 2, Pirates 3, TDKR, Shrek 3, Attack of the Clones etc. still had massive drop offs from their predecessors and Avengers was even bigger than them adjusted (Exocet Menace, which is looking to have a bigger drop off than what Avengers), yet they were still huge.

Phenomenons don't increase at the box office. The only phenomenon that's had a small decrease from the predecessor was Spidey 2, and Spidey 2 had the luxury of being a very high praised sequel (more than the first) in a time period where sequels were beginning to become popular, as well as comic book movies, and it still had a near 100m drop adjusted. Spidey 2 was a best case scenario, but Avengers was still bigger than the first Spidey (meaning a larger drop off), and Avengers 2 has been no where near as praised like Spidey 2.

and that's the issue. TA2's drop off from TA1 will be near 180M. Nobody saw that coming. It's disappointment no question about it.

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I know, that's why arguments like "it's the second best second weekend ever!" are meaningless to me.

 

But there have been plenty of blockbusters whose second weekend was left clean that did not earn $77-mil, so the 2nd-best 2nd-weekend is hardly meaningless.  I'm sure, if actuals show AOU below Avatar's, TDK's or CF's second weekends, that diminished ranking will become VERY meaningful to some people on this site.

 

 

Or how Paul Blart is the number 1 comedy in America

 

Apples and oranges. Paul Blart 2 was going up against nothing in mid-spring. AOU's 2nd-best 2nd-weekend is going up against every BO release ever, in regard to that particular record. Second place may be disappointing to some, but it's still notable.

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So, wait, with a higher Saturday and a Sunday that could be as much as $2M higher, will Ultron be just over/under $80M this weekend? Would that give Ultron a better weekend to weekend % drop than Furious 7?

It only needs to clear $78m to have a better percentage drop.

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