JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM | 22 JUN 2018 | Universal | J.A. Bayona to direct | The Park is Closed | NOT THE FRANCHISE WARS THREAD

[RobinHood26]

Just a reminder TLW did 444m Adjusted following up a 766m Adjusted grossing film (not counting the re release, that pushes it over 800) 

 

 

[Hatebox]

I'd love JW2 to crumble as course correction for how bad the previous one was, but it ain't gonna happen. Unless people's benchmark for 'crumble' is really high.

[IndyRex]

On 5/10/2017 at 8:31 PM, John Marston said:

 

 

ooh what rumours. Please tell me

Spoiler

The volcano plot: the volcano of Isla Nublar is going to erupt and probably the main characters will go there to save the dinosaurs and get them out of the island.

 

The new hybrid: the dino in the second diary seems to be a hybrid (the thumb was present also in the Indominus Rex), but smaller. The rumors say it could be named Indoraptor.

 

Edited October 9, 2017 by IndyRex

[a2k]

Jurassic universe is too fresh right now, unsoiled by spin-offs. TA and AOU had 3 movies in between from the same universe (CA2, Thor2, IM3). SW7 and SW8 have RO in between.

 

JW and FK have nothing in between over the 3 years. That itself imo will give a lesser drop than we will be used to unless there is marked drop in reception (from GA's perspective. Not anecdotal or critics) like it happened with JP and LW.

 

20-25% drop from JW gives 489-522 dom. I think it will make it to 500+ dom.

Edited October 9, 2017 by a2knet

[John Marston]

21 minutes ago, IndyRex said:

  Reveal hidden contents

The volcano plot: the volcano of Isla Nublar is going to erupt and probably the main characters will go there to save the dinosaurs and get them out of the island.

 

The new hybrid: the dino in the second diary seems to be a hybrid (the thumb was present also in the Indominus Rex), but smaller. The rumors say it could be named Indoraptor.

 

 

 

Wut. That sounds like the dumbest plot ever. Hope it isn't true

[Ethan Hunt]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

. That sounds like the dumbest plot ever. 

It's  a jurassic park movie. I don't know what you expected 

[TalismanRing]

16 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Jurassic universe is too fresh right now, unsoiled by spin-offs. TA and AOU had 3 movies in between from the same universe (CA2, Thor2, IM3). SW7 and SW8 have RO in between.

 

JW and FK have nothing in between over the 3 years. That itself imo will give a lesser drop than we will be used to unless there is marked drop in reception (from GA's perspective. Not anecdotal or critics) like it happened with JP and LW.

 

20-25% drop from JW gives 489-522 dom. I think it will make it to 500+ dom.

It soiled itself.

 

 

 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

It soiled itself.

 

 

 

imo, that 3.1x after breaking the ow record hints (if not proves) otherwise : not that GA necessarily loved it, but at least must have liked it.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

imo, that 3.1x after breaking the ow record hints (if not proves) otherwise : not that GA necessarily loved it, but at least must have liked it.

When movies open that big and make that much money they get a lot of lookie loos who would otherwise never go.  People like to feel part of the event.  It becomes self feeding.  But just because you pay the $ doesn't mean you enjoy it or want to see another.  It's why we get the inevitable sequel drop to mega openers (and yes it was so long since JWIII is acted like an opener + the lure of nostalgia) even if the sequel is better.  If it can happen with Star Wars (twice) it can happen to Jurassic.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

imo, that 3.1x after breaking the ow record hints (if not proves) otherwise : not that GA necessarily loved it, but at least must have liked it.

 

Ive always loved the internet hatred for JW and all the people who keep insisting that it is a bad movie. Now i love it despite its big flaws but the thing is these flaws are similar to movies like Independence Day or Twister. JW was a mid-90s blockbuster (Dumb Fun) in the year 2015 and the GA ate it up. You dont get a 3+ multiplier, especially with that kind of OW if the WOM is bad. 

 

If FK is similar in quality (or better: even better) this wont do under 500M imo. Coming right after Infinity War, Deadpool 2 and Incredibles, people will want a break from SHs and Dinosaurs are still a rarity. This movie is the definition of surefire hit.

[a2k]

31 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

When movies open that big and make that much money they get a lot of lookie loos who would otherwise never go.  People like to feel part of the event.  It becomes self feeding.  But just because you pay the $ doesn't mean you enjoy it or want to see another.  It's why we get the inevitable sequel drop to mega openers (and yes it was so long since JWIII is acted like an opener + the lure of nostalgia) even if the sequel is better.  If it can happen with Star Wars (twice) it can happen to Jurassic.

Yeah, that's why was making the case for 'hints at it was liked' vs 'proves it was loved'. It certainly didn't seem hated if you look at some online metrics.

 

IMO they point to unsoiled/acceptable,

Audience RT 78%

IMDB 7/10

User score MT 6.8/10

 

Fun at least to see the progression (green to red) in these metrics.

 

JP1 metrics  (+/- compared to JW),

Audience RT 91% (+23)

IMDB 8.1/10 (+1.1)

User score MT 8.8/10 (+2.0)

 

JP2 metrics  (+/- compared to JW),

Audience RT 51% (-27)

IMDB 6.5/10 (-0.5)

User score MT 7.1/10 (+0.3)

 

JP3 metrics (+/- compared to JW),

Audience RT 38% (-30)

IMDB 5.9/10 (-1.1)

User score MT 6.1/10 (-0.7)

 

To the GA JW must have felt like a 'B', square in between JP (A, loved) and JP3 (D, soiled), with JP2 a 'C'.

(can only make a guess based on these and bo)

Edited October 9, 2017 by a2knet

[marveldcfox]

50 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Wut. That sounds like the dumbest plot ever. Hope it isn't true

Colin treverrow....what do you expect.

[Bishop54]

Claire will prove that you can run in molten lava with high heel shoes. 

[TalismanRing]

35 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Yeah, that's why was making the case for 'hints at it was liked' vs 'proves it was loved'. It certainly didn't seem hated if you look at some online metrics.

 

IMO they point to unsoiled/acceptable,

Audience RT 78%

IMDB 7/10

User score MT 6.8/10

 

Fun at least to see the progression (green to red) in these metrics.

 

JP1 metrics  (+/- compared to JW),

Audience RT 91% (+23)

IMDB 8.1/10 (+1.1)

User score MT 8.8/10 (+2.0)

 

JP2 metrics  (+/- compared to JW),

Audience RT 51% (-27)

IMDB 6.5/10 (-0.5)

User score MT 7.1/10 (+0.3)

 

JP3 metrics (+/- compared to JW),

Audience RT 38% (-30)

IMDB 5.9/10 (-1.1)

User score MT 6.1/10 (-0.7)

 

To the GA JW must have felt like a 'B', square in between JP (A, loved) and JP3 (D, soiled), with JP2 a 'C'.

(can only make a guess based on these and bo)

 

 

JP1 was loved and yet JP2 dropped about 33%. 

 

According to those numbers audience scores for JW are about the same as for JP2 (and that's with 20 years of hindsight)  and JW3 dropped from 49m estimated tickets to 32m domestic with a much bigger drop WW.

 

Phantom Menace had an excellent multiplier but the Dom drop was $474m to $310m for a better reviewed sequel. 

 

I think the only sequels to a mega blockbuster in the last 30 or maybe 40 years to drop less than 25% were SM2 (just 8%) and TDKR (about 22%)

 

 

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 

JP1 was loved and yet JP2 dropped about 33%. 

 

According to those numbers audience scores for JW are about the same as for JP2 (and that's with 20 years of hindsight)  and JW3 dropped from 49m estimated tickets to 32m domestic with a much bigger drop WW.

 

Phantom Menace had an excellent multiplier but the Dom drop was $474m to $310m for a better reviewed sequel. 

 

I think the only sequels to a mega blockbuster in the last 30 or maybe 40 years to drop less than 25% were SM2 (just 8%) and TDKR (about 22%)

 

 

 

To be fair, Jurassic Park III was the worst movie of all time. It's reasonable to expect FK to be better than that.

[TalismanRing]

4 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

To be fair, Jurassic Park III was the worst movie of all time. It's reasonable to expect FK to be better than that.

JW was worse than JPIII and JPIII is no good.

 

The point is JPII (also no good) dropped from JP - mightily.   ESB also dropped big from Star Wars and its a better film.

 

I think SW8 will probably be better than SW7 (which is fine) but it's still going to drop a couple of hundred million+ .

 

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Ive always loved the internet hatred for JW and all the people who keep insisting that it is a bad movie. Now i love it despite its big flaws but the thing is these flaws are similar to movies like Independence Day or Twister. JW was a mid-90s blockbuster (Dumb Fun) in the year 2015 and the GA ate it up. You dont get a 3+ multiplier, especially with that kind of OW if the WOM is bad. 

 

If FK is similar in quality (or better: even better) this wont do under 500M imo. Coming right after Infinity War, Deadpool 2 and Incredibles, people will want a break from SHs and Dinosaurs are still a rarity. This movie is the definition of surefire hit.

It sounds like they upped the horror element this time, which could be perfect given the horror craze the box office is in this year. 

[robertman2]

World is fun. Not perfect by any means, but it's very much an enjoyable movie.

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It sounds like they upped the horror element this time, which could be perfect given the horror craze the box office is in this year. 

So would it be an event?

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Robertman2 Floats Too said:

World is fun. Not perfect by any means, but it's very much an enjoyable movie.

So would it be an event?

Think a little more TDK, a little less Rogue Junk. 

[Ethan Hunt]

Jurassic World isn't terrible.  It's fine