Tuesday - IO 8.8, JW 7.4, Ted2 3.8 - Gopher Shoots and Scores!

[Chaz]

Pixar films always make 200 M (post-A BUG'S LIFE and excluding CARS II).

And even Cars 2 passed $190. That was in the summer, though. We haven't had a November Pixar release since 2004.

Dreamworks hasn't had much luck with November releases the last few years. Who knows?

[GregBeuke]

Even if TG has a fine opening, its legs are likely going to be terrible. It does seem now that it won't be a Tomorrowland-level bomb, though.

It will do fine weekday business and decent still next weekend. But it needs to be over 110 million by the time Ant-Man opens. Because it will probably only make 15-20 million after that. So that's why a 5 day at least 60-65 million opening is important for the movie.

Edited July 1, 2015 by gb0708

[kayumanggi]

Wow, so this will be the first time Universal will win the year (BOM only has data starting from year 2001). They finished second in 2000 and 2001.

[Gopher]

200 in 12 days. And down only -32% from last Tuesday. That's just awesome. This is Pixar's most impressive run in six years.

[Ethan Hunt]

And even Cars 2 passed $190. That was in the summer, though. We haven't had a November Pixar release since 2004.

Dreamworks hasn't had much luck with November releases the last few years. Who knows?

Disney on the other hand has

[Gopher]

I'm not sold on it winning the weekend. Its Saturday drop will be rough.

TG and Magic Mike are going to have worse Saturday holds than IO. Look at 2009.

[kayumanggi]

200 in 12 days. And down only -32% from last Tuesday. That's just awesome. This is Pixar's most impressive run in six years.

 

I think it's their most impressive so far.

[baumer]

200 in 12 days. And down only -32% from last Tuesday. That's just awesome. This is Pixar's most impressive run in six years.

 

JW down 44% from last Tuesday.  Similar to Avengers 43% third Tuesday.

[#ED]

JW down 44% from last Tuesday.  Similar to Avengers 43% third Tuesday.

JW discussions > IO?

I have yet to see IO. There's room for only 1 animated movie this year and that's Minions.

[GregBeuke]

TG and Magic Mike are going to have worse Saturday holds than IO. Look at 2009.

Yeah the grosses will likely be higher on Sunday than Saturday. Which is why Terminator and Magic Mike opened midweek.

[BoxOfficeZ]

I love how IO is doing awesomely even in the face of the monster that is JW.

 

In fact, happy for both movies. 

[keysersoze123]

RollingThunder who works in a bigtheater also posted this.

 

Terminator performed terribly here, too.  This is going to be a painful one for Paramount.

 

I think MM2 had very few showtimes and so its preview numbers will be tiny. But its gonna have huge OD.

 

TG on the other hand had huge amount of showtimes but did not do that great.

 

I am sensing 2.5m previews max at this point.

[Bishop54]

Way to go Gopher on guessing the numbers...you false prophet. 

Edited July 1, 2015 by Bishop54

[The Dark Alfred]

Cars 2 also came out in a year when all animated films disappointed, was easily the highest grossing in 2011. IO will beat Minions and expecting 250m from GD as well.

Edited July 1, 2015 by Alfredstellar

[keysersoze123]

Definitely good call from Gopher but its not surprising to me. He finished 2nd in derby once coming close to beating Xiayun. That is being close on year around. That is not easy at all.

[baumer]

Definitely good call from Gopher but its not surprising to me. He finished 2nd in derby once coming close to beating Xiayun. That is being close on year around. That is not easy at all.

 

He also won the summer game once, dropped the mike, and never played again.

[The Dark Alfred]

We should be making the daily prediction game big again.

[GregBeuke]

RollingThunder who works in a bigtheater also posted this.

I think MM2 had very few showtimes and so its preview numbers will be tiny. But its gonna have huge OD.

TG on the other hand had huge amount of showtimes but did not do that great.

I am sensing 2.5m previews max at this point.

It all depends on the theater. Rolling thunder is still a small sample size. Plus due to polling we knew it wouldn't be big in his area anyways.As I mentioned already I witness a polar opposite crowd size. Magic Mike had only two less showings at my theater.They had the same amount of 2D shows, Terminator just had 2 3D shows extra. Edited July 1, 2015 by gb0708

[eXtacy]

200 in 12 days. And down only -32% from last Tuesday. That's just awesome. This is Pixar's most impressive run in six years.

 

I wonder if its because there was no Pixar film last year, and if its going to hurt The Good Dinosaur

[mahnamahna]

IO might challenge Nemo if it doesn't collapse when Minions come into town.

$339 million might happen? 

 

Even if it does drop 50-52% against Minions, I see it doing $340 million at the very least. My prediction is much higher, though. I'm expecting 10-30% drops from July 17 to August 28, then a 10-30% Labor Day boost. 

 

Plus, it looks set to do $34-37 million this weekend, which would put it well above $250 million DOM by July 9

 

From $36 million ($252 million) 

$17 million ($285 million) - Minions 

$14 million ($312 million) - Ant-Man double features

$10 million ($330 million) - Pixels will hurt slightly 

$8.5 million ($346 million) - no competition

$6.5 million ($357 million) - only Shaun

$4.5 million ($364 million) - only Underdogs

$3.5 million ($369 million) - nothing

$2.5 million ($372 million) - nothing 

$3.5 million/$4.5 million ($378 million) - Labor Day boost

$383-387 million DOM

 

Of course, IO might defy my $36 million predict for this weekend and do $39-41 million. And have a crazy 40-42% hold against Minions. 

Edited July 1, 2015 by mahnamahna