Black Widow | July 9 2021 | ScarJo secures the bag from Disney

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Didn’t it hit normal digital sites on August 10th? So we won’t know how much of it is PA. 

It did but the numbers are from August 15 and i doubt it will grossed much in just 5 days, most people interested already paid PA.

 

If i would bet, i would say probably 110M or so of this comes from PA and 15M comes from digital download on first 5 days.

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It did but the numbers are from August 15 and i doubt it will grossed much in just 5 days, most people interested already paid PA.

 

If i would bet, i would say probably 110M or so of this comes from PA and 15M comes from digital download on first 5 days.

That’s what I said: we can’t actually know how much is from PA. 

 

Another thing is, Disney can cite these numbers for the case, but they’re still not box office numbers. They’ve already used up a huge portion of the films’ at-home gross/audience so it’s pretty pointless. 

[imbruglia]

from the court document

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21046887-disney-motion-to-compel-arbitration

 

"The Picture’s release date was first pushed back from May 2020 to November 2020, and then to May 2021, before finally settling––at Johansson’s request––on July 9, 2021."

 

"Marvel discussed the hybrid-release-pattern decision with Johansson in spring 2021, as the parties were conferring regarding the Picture’s release date. Marvel has assured Johansson that she will be credited with 100% of the Premier Access and PEHV receipts for purposes of the box-office thresholds used to calculate any additional compensation,20 even though Marvel has no obligation under the Agreement to do so."

 

"In addition, the Picture grossed more than $55 million in its domestic opening weekend from Premier Access on Disney+" ($67MM in total worldwide Premier Access opening-weekend receipts))

[Menor the Destroyer]

49 minutes ago, imbruglia said:

from the court document

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/21046887-disney-motion-to-compel-arbitration

 

"The Picture’s release date was first pushed back from May 2020 to November 2020, and then to May 2021, before finally settling––at Johansson’s request––on July 9, 2021."

 

"Marvel discussed the hybrid-release-pattern decision with Johansson in spring 2021, as the parties were conferring regarding the Picture’s release date. Marvel has assured Johansson that she will be credited with 100% of the Premier Access and PEHV receipts for purposes of the box-office thresholds used to calculate any additional compensation,20 even though Marvel has no obligation under the Agreement to do so."

 

"In addition, the Picture grossed more than $55 million in its domestic opening weekend from Premier Access on Disney+" ($67MM in total worldwide Premier Access opening-weekend receipts))

Ok 55 from domestic is a lot and lends credence to the idea that BW could have done 100+ without PA. 55/67 does seem very DOM heavy though.

[DInky]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Ok 55 from domestic is a lot and lends credence to the idea that BW could have done 100+ without PA. 55/67 does seem very DOM heavy though.

 

Does anybody know how many subscribers Disney+ has domestically vs internationally? Because if the numbers are more or less equal then it would seem like piracy affected the movie internationally more than domestically. I would assume that the demand for an MCU film is pretty much the same domestically and internationally. Box office gross for the film is neck-and-neck (179M vs 189M) and yet there's such discrepancy between PA numbers (domestic  82% and international only 18%). Is piracy the reason? Or is overall percentage of international subscribers just that much smaller?

Edited August 21, 2021 by DInky

[imbruglia]

I saw 38M number for NA as of July.

PA wasn't available everywhere like India which apparently has like 34m subscribers. it is biggest international market for D+.

also the price was different. it was $10~15 in Latin America.

 

another important factor is that covid danger/issue awareness became bigger recently in America. so lots of people are taking covid more serious than European or others.

Edited August 21, 2021 by imbruglia

[DInky]

6 minutes ago, imbruglia said:

I saw 38M number for NA as of July.

PA wasn't available everywhere like India which apparently has like 34m subscribers. it is biggest international market for D+.

also the price was different. it was $10~15 in Latin America.

 

 

 

PA not being available to 34m subscribers (and there are probably other countries in the same position) would help explain the discrepancy. And that $10-15 in Latin America was what BW PA cost? If so then that's also an important factor.

 

 

[Joyous Legion]

Wow, 55M dom. This would have been 110-120M perhaps as an exclusive -- important implications for how to think about Shang Chi.

[belblazer]

I didn't know but this has a surprising 6.3 on Douban. The lowest score for a MCU movie. It's on par with CBMs that they hated like Shazam (6.2) and Wonder Woman 1984 (6.1).

 

For comparison:

Iron Man 3 - 7.8

Far from Home - 7.7

Aquaman / Doctor Strange - 7.6

Ragnarok - 7.4

Homecoming / Ant-Man and the Wasp - 7.3

Man of Steel - 7.2

Wonder Woman / Incredible Hulk - 7.1

Captain Marvel - 6.8

Black Panther 6.5

 

Movies that weren't released there:

Joker - 8.7

The Suicide Squad - 8.1

Suicide Squad - 6.6

[Fox20]

1 hour ago, belblazer said:

I didn't know but this has a surprising 6.3 on Douban. The lowest score for a MCU movie. It's on par with CBMs that they hated like Shazam (6.2) and Wonder Woman 1984 (6.1).

 

For comparison:

Iron Man 3 - 7.8

Far from Home - 7.7

Aquaman / Doctor Strange - 7.6

Ragnarok - 7.4

Homecoming / Ant-Man and the Wasp - 7.3

Man of Steel - 7.2

Wonder Woman / Incredible Hulk - 7.1

Captain Marvel - 6.8

Black Panther 6.5

 

Movies that weren't released there:

Joker - 8.7

The Suicide Squad - 8.1

Suicide Squad - 6.6

And that score comes mostly from people that only watched the movie pirated with fansubs... 

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Maybe PA wasn't that frontloaded afterall.

 

"and according to the latest filing, as of Aug. 15, Black Widow has grossed more than $367 million in worldwide box-office receipts and more than $125 million in streaming and download retail receipts."

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/disney-makes-first-move-in-scarlett-johanssons-black-widow-suit-1235001093/

 

 

 

FWIW, and I'd leave it to someone like @Lokis Legion to do the hard analysis, it fell off a cliff in the Nielsen viewing charts (one of the few independent viewing tools we have alongside Samba TV).  It did al'ight  on its second week of views, but has disappeared completely by week three:

 

Week of 7/5/21 - 7/11/21:      3    DISNEY+    BLACK WIDOW    1    541 [covers first three days of release]

Week of 7/12/21 - 7/18/21:    3    DISNEY+    BLACK WIDOW    1    444 

Week of 7/19/21 - 7/25/21:    OFF THE TOP TEN [10 NETFLIX    TROLLHUNTERS: RISE OF THE TITANS    1    187]

 

While there might be a long tail there, it not being in the Top Ten is something of a data point, if not a conclusive one.

 

Also, that 55m+ USA first weekend on PA does suggest there might have been a strong market for folks buying it on digital on the first five days of release if they don't have Disney Plus for one reason or another.

 

[Joyous Legion]

The week 2 vs week 1 Nielsen drop was -18%, and the week 3 drop was 58%+, for a 65.5%+ Week 1 to week 3 drop.

 

In terms of box office:

days 1-3 (true FSS) — 67.2M

days 4-10 — 51.2M (-24%)

Days 11-17 — 23.2M (-55%,  -65.5% vs week 1)
 

In other words, the relatively strong week 2 on Nielsen is generally an artifact of the Mon-Sun analysis week meeting the Fri release pattern. There’s not enough data there, or anywhere else publicly available afaik, to meaningfully test the hypotheses “PA legs were worse vs same vs better than theatrical.”   
 

Which is not to say you should assign 33% to each — just, basically, stick to your priors.

Edited August 21, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Krissykins]

13 hours ago, belblazer said:

I didn't know but this has a surprising 6.3 on Douban. The lowest score for a MCU movie. It's on par with CBMs that they hated like Shazam (6.2) and Wonder Woman 1984 (6.1).

 

Black Panther 6.5

Is Douben China? Looks like they hated Black Panther as much as Shazam and WW84. And Black Widow wasn’t even released there, piracy must be a huge problem in that country. 

[andersonhoran]

 

[SpiderByte]

 

[Lucas]

6 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

 

Lawsuit just got better.

[SpiderByte]

This could be just negotiating in public to pressure Disney into giving them what they want and less directly related to the suit but damn, either way the look is bad for Chapek.

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

This could be just negotiating in public to pressure Disney into giving them what they want and less directly related to the suit but damn, either way the look is bad for Chapek.

Negotiating in public to give Scarjo what she wants would be the real galaxy brain take. I bet they like her a lot more than they like Chapek 😛 

[SpiderByte]

3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Negotiating in public to give Scarjo what she wants would be the real galaxy brain take. I bet they like her a lot more than they like Chapek 😛 

Well maybe also her but I think this is more for their benefit than hers.

[JWR]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

This could be just negotiating in public to pressure Disney into giving them what they want and less directly related to the suit but damn, either way the look is bad for Chapek.

 

Is there any major talent Chapek hasn't displeased (that we know of)?

- Everyone at Pixar 

- Scarlett Johansson 

- Emily Blunt 

- Emma Stone

- Kevin Feige 

- Bob Iger