Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[stripe]

14 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think it is going to be around $17m for Rogue One.  

 

Sunday?

18.2M - 14.5M - 17M 

49.7M 3day to 425M DOM

Not as good as I thought.

 

Monday should be around 14-15M to 440M after Holidays.

[PPZVGOS]

3 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

I think if people are going into a movie like Sing and getting upset at racial stereotypes because a pig has too many kids or a gorilla represents a black person, I mean come on guys are you being serious? These are animals. They are singing animals. There's no racism involved at all whatsoever in this. I think that's bloody ridiculous. Some of guys are trying too hard.

 

I even read a review of la la land where some guy complained that it was racist towards Chinese people. Because there's Apparently one scene where a bunch of people go out to dinner and they talk about some sort of negative stereotypes in China. Now if you were going into la-la land and picking out one scene that seems to be racist and not commenting on the rest of the movie then you are just simply looking to find racism in every single facet of life. Sometimes films are just films.

 

I confronted Post-Colonial Studies students on this, and told them that their biggest fear is that one day, they may not be able to find any racism no matter how hard they try. They readily admitted this was true!

 

Back on topic. If Rogue One does indeed manage a $17M Sunday it will be a solid result. A bit better than the Fri-Sun ratio that SH2 achieved 5 years ago. 

[baumer]

About a 17% increase. Thats pretty huge.

[aabattery]

9 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

1.6 mill in Austrailia. Am i doing math wrong?

 

If you use assume the 1.6M is in AUD, that does convert to about 1.1M USD. That would give you 11M. I can't recall if DeeCee specified what his figures were in.

Edited January 2, 2017 by AABATTERY

[baumer]

I don't know guys when I hear people complain about racism in such innocuous looking things in movies it reminds me of this I meme that I saw on Facebook once where someone said that we the Irish are incredibly offended by The Lucky Charms leprechaun. Then at the bottom of the meme it says " LOL just kidding... we are Irish we don't get offended by shit" That to me is a much better attitude. There's just so many other things in life to get worked up about. Searching and digging and looking at every single possible angle to try to find some microscopic modicum of some perceived kind of racist innuendo to me just seems like a really big waste of time.

 

 

[JonathanLB]

So Rogue One will end Week 3 up about $40M on Dark Knight. TDK finished at $534M and some people are wondering if Rogue One can finish above $550M? I think Rogue One gains further on TDK frankly before it gives up anything and I see Rogue One above TDK's 4th weekend of $26.5M too. 

[baumer]

1 minute ago, AABATTERY said:

 

If you use assume the 1.6M is in AUD, that does convert to about 1.1M USD. That would give you 11M. 

 

Thats not the formula we use. It's not an exact science and I'm obviously not saying that's exactly would be 16 million dollars in the US. Anyway it doesn't really matter.

[aabattery]

Just now, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Thats not the formula we use. It's not an exact science and I'm obviously not saying that's exactly would be 16 million dollars in the US. Anyway it doesn't really matter.

 

I think someone did mention a 10x multiplier somewhere in the thread. But like you said, it doesn't matter. Great number for Passengers regardless.

[terrestrial]

 

2 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:

I still find the sports-team like support for Disney to be bizarre. 

Media conglomerates definitely have some very talented and hard-working people involved, but there is much more than talent and hard-work in this industry. There's also corruption, collusion with state officials and agencies, opportunism etc etc etc...  

 

I think you misread at best quite a lot here. 

In general it isn't the company itself that get cheered on (even if people partly say things like 'go Disney') it is simple a new number reached.

Like then, as a runner in sport for the first time managed to run his distance under 10 seconds. Was even in the TV-news all over the world then. Was the leap he managed a big one? Nope, it was only about the milestone. And he is still in all books about sport's achievements, even if they now run ... lets say under 8 seconds.

 

= this here is a very BO numbers orientated forum.

It is also - depending in the thread or area of the forum - about films. Or real life. Or games. Or politic,...

The shared common interest - an the reason this forum even exists (beside Mojo closing the forums overnight, also a forum for BO interest) are discussing... BO numbers.

But especially the weekend / daily actuals threads are - in theory - only about numbers. Those dailies are the common ground threads in a way.

Even if we all tend to go OT a lot whilst waiting for the next update...

I don't care if the $3b would ave been reached by WB, Disney, Universal,... whatever. Or if we got the 100th film studio, or the xxxxx -cinema in the US or Europe or the world.

M I L E S T O N E.

Maybe thinking a bit again what that term really means for a number based forum?

Including to do so without assuming it means more than comments about the milestone being more than simple comments about the milestone itself.

It is a harmless cheering/interest for a new milestone, enhanced in this case twice, see it being a round number, and the last day / possibility detail.

If you can not understand that (including that it is for the most members commenting on that not about the company - not sure why that part of all the answers didn't got through),... maybe the daily thread is not the perfect thread for you? Because over the years you will see a lot of those milestone for this and that posts. Like most extreme day-to-day-drop, highest theatre loss (count and - a separate number - percentages), best OW per season, highest opening theatre count per season or ever,... Nearly every weekend there will be someone who finds one of those milestones. 

And looking out for those can even help recognising changed patterns, like per OW - mp internal and total - showed early on some changed GA behaviour pattern / fan-driven films patterns and so on. Without looking for milestones too (and more important other details, like consistency of patterns) the development of prediction formulas/rules never would happen. No derbies, no estimates, no... reason for BOT = box office theory

 

I really hope you get now what the daily thread is there for - numbers with all the fun and disappointments for some it can be (incl. a few big noooooooo s if they e.g. lost points at their derby in a big way - and incl those noooos do not mean they are fans or haters of a certain film)

[fmpro]

27 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

1.6 mill in Austrailia. Am i doing math wrong?

 

Im no aussie expert but i think its in Australian $ which gives us 11 mill US..

Or is it Australian $ * 10?

 

Hmmmm

[terrestrial]

14 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

I don't know guys when I hear people complain about racism in such innocuous looking things in movies it reminds me of this I meme that I saw on Facebook once where someone said that we the Irish are incredibly offended by The Lucky Charms leprechaun. Then at the bottom of the meme it says " LOL just kidding... we are Irish we don't get offended by shit" That to me is a much better attitude. There's just so many other things in life to get worked up about. Searching and digging and looking at every single possible angle to try to find some microscopic modicum of some perceived kind .... (fill in a lot of possibilities) of racist innuendo to me just seems like a really big waste of time.

Agree

I think I like this post in especial, because it is also true for a lot of other 'versions' were looking too extreme into something can go overboard.

Like film quality.

Sometimes I feel like a few people are so strongly looking for perfect / faults in details, they overdo it and can not enjoy a film for being a film anymore, miss the big picture in its completeness.

 

And there are really a lot more important / big ... possibilities to so something against, help people or... being constructive in getting a situation better.

Hmmm, the focusing too microscopic on something bigger can change doing a constructive thing to be de-constructive, see each poison is usually the too high amount of something also being a medicine. Not generally counting, see science, 'microscoping' view...

[terrestrial]

5 minutes ago, fmpro said:

Im no aussie expert but i think its in Australian $ which gives us 11 mill US..

Or is it Australian $ * 10?

Hmmmm

But didn't he say for e.g. animated he does use another number, e.g. times 9?

 

I think it was AUS$ number is US$ times a number depending on e.g. ~ genre or....

[POTUS 2020]

16 minutes ago, fmpro said:

 

Im no aussie expert but i think its in Australian $ which gives us 11 mill US..

Or is it Australian $ * 10?

 

Hmmmm

 

35 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Thats not the formula we use. It's not an exact science and I'm obviously not saying that's exactly would be 16 million dollars in the US. Anyway it doesn't really matter.

Donestic is 15.65 times the size of OZ.

16m sounds right

[PPZVGOS]

37 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

So Rogue One will end Week 3 up about $40M on Dark Knight. TDK finished at $534M and some people are wondering if Rogue One can finish above $550M? I think Rogue One gains further on TDK frankly before it gives up anything and I see Rogue One above TDK's 4th weekend of $26.5M too. 

 

TDK was a summer release, its daily takes after today will be significantly higher than whatever Rogue One manages to master in weekdays. But Rogue One will have the better weekends in my view. 

[JonathanLB]

While that's true I still think Rogue One's weekdays will remain higher for two weeks because they're so much higher at present. It'll be close though. Rogue One could still have a $7M Tuesday and $5.5M Wednesday let's say. 

[DeeCee]

2015 total box office revenues 

 

Australia-AUD1.2 Billion

Domestic-USD11.1 Billion

 

AUD x 9.25 = USD

 

When I first started using the comparison a few years ago it was closer to 10. 

 

It's best use is to compare the final gross to give an idea as to whether a film had performed relatively worse or better in Australia relative to Domestic. 

 

e.g. Deadpool 

 

USD363m / AUD43m = 8.4

 

Therefore Deadpool performed slightly better in Australia relative to Domestic. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by DeeCee

[Arlborn]

Racism is such a complicated topic because for so long there was blatant racism anywhere you looked on TV that people who suffered through it are just very wary of it.

 

so I do understand when people get uncomfortable with certain things that for most people seem harmless enough, they are just scared of letting their guard down too much and see so much of the work done against racism in the last decades go down the drain and who can be blamed for having their guard up so high when we see someone who blatantly used racism as election propaganda being elected? I certainly can't.

 

On the other hand saying RACISM! to too many things can also have the undesirable effect of diminishing the power of this word and that played a small part in a racist jerk being elected as, even though he's blatantly racist, some people just shrugged the accusations away because "everything is racist these days anyway..".

 

 

So yeah, it's complicated. The easiest solution is for people to just stop being stupid racist idiots, but that's probably too much to ask from certain human beings at the moment I guess, sadly.

 

 

 

PS: I haven't even watched Sing yet and I know I'll probably enjoy it for what it is myself but it doesn't really change anything I've just said.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by Arlborn

[PPZVGOS]

For the first couple of non-holiday weekdays I also expect Rogue One to probably match or beat TDK, probably beat. But from there on then it should be close, with TDK having a small edge (IMO) 

 

But I also expect weekends for Rogue One to be a bit bigger than TDK. It will be close, but the important thing here is that Rogue One is beating TDK's total, probably with some good margin. 

[stripe]

18 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

While that's true I still think Rogue One's weekdays will remain higher for two weeks because they're so much higher at present. It'll be close though. Rogue One could still have a $7M Tuesday and $5.5M Wednesday let's say. 

 

I am expecting lower dailies. Around 6M Tuesday, 4.5M Wednesday, 4M Thursday.

 

Then a 4th weekend like 9M / 13M / 8M

 

[DeeCee]

The scene @Christmas Baumer mentioned about Chinese people in La La Land is  supposed to be offensive. The character is an asshole. 

Edited January 2, 2017 by DeeCee