The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Rumpot]

8 minutes ago, The Last baumer said:

 

All or most Christmas movies come out at this time of year.  This is the common time to launch them.  See Home Alone, Grinch, Polar Express, Elf, Santa Clause and so on.

To this post, I agree...don't see the issue with releasing the movie here.  It may even be looked back on as a smart move 4 weeks from now and families are certainly starting to plan (at least think about) for the holidays around now - Halloween decorations give way to Christmas decorations pretty quick so it doesn't feel crazy to me.

[TwoMisfits]

So, to some movie tracking...

 

1st - one local has now gone to 5 shows for Thor Thursday (vs 4) - it added a 2d at 8pm b/c those 2d shows are selling wildly better than the 3ds...we'll see if it adds any more as we get closer...

 

Now, to my local Friday sets...1st local (ie - the one that now loves foreign films to fill in) will have this set up for the weekend...

 

NEW

Thor - (3) (1 3d, 2 2d - 13 total showings) - so $150M cap by my screen-to-box-office Math if my other local goes 3 (since I expect mall to go 4:)...

Bad Moms - (1)

Ittefaq (1)

 

Returning

Boo (1)

Geostorm (1)

Jigsaw (1)

Happy Death Day (1)

Suburbicon (1/2)

Thank You for Your Service (1/2)

Blade Runner (1 showing)

Secret Superstar (2 showings)

4 foreign films sharing the rest of the 1 1/2 screens - I'll list them if anyone wants them:)...

Edited October 31, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[JB33]

I find it odd that only COCO and POLAROID are opening on that Wednesday before American thanksgiving. Usually there are 3 or 4 pretty high profile releases in that slot.

 

I wonder if this bumps up COCO's 3 and 5 day weekend numbers up considerably. Can it challenger FROZEN for the 3-day Thanksgiving weekend opening of $67.4M?

[Mojoguy]

Can it challenger FROZEN for the 3-day Thanksgiving weekend opening of $67.4M?

Coco doesn't have nearly the same hype as Frozen did.

[XO21]

Frozen was a WOM monster, the estimates for Thanksgiving 5-day kept increasing and increasing...I'd put Coco below Moana 3-day

Edited October 31, 2017 by XO21

[keysersoze123]

Coco does not have the hype that Pixar sequels had, but dont forget Inside Out came out of nowhere and opened to 90m with Jurassic World putting in monster numbers. Pixar has large built in Adult fanbase who will come in if the movie is well reviewed. If Coco stays above 90%(I think its likely) then its OW will be boosted by Pixar adult fan base. 

[YM!]

Coco also doesn’t seem to have the hype that of Moana or TGD. So anywhere from $65M-$75M 5 Day.

[Poseidon]

RT-Votes are alarming for a Disney/Pixar-Movie, but keep in mind, that the hugely anticipated Frozen-Short will play with it. 

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, JB33 said:

I find it odd that only COCO and POLAROID are opening on that Wednesday before American thanksgiving. Usually there are 3 or 4 pretty high profile releases in that slot.

 

I wonder if this bumps up COCO's 3 and 5 day weekend numbers up considerably. Can it challenger FROZEN for the 3-day Thanksgiving weekend opening of $67.4M?

Roman J. Israel, Esq. will also be opening wide on Thanksgiving weekend.

[Rumpot]

Ready to see some amazing Halloween numbers tomorrow given the unprecedented selection on a cheap Tuesday 

[TwoMisfits]

21 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Ready to see some amazing Halloween numbers tomorrow given the unprecedented selection on a cheap Tuesday 

It helps that Jigsaw had free Atom ticket codes today...that movie should have an amazing Tuesday:)...

Edited October 31, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[YM!]

Coco per rival estimates is looking at opening to $65M over five days.

 

Via DHD

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Coco per rival estimates is looking at opening to $65M over five days.

 

Via DHD

Wow, 10 m higher than Good Dinosaur.

 

Not good for my Winter Game if it ends up happening.

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Wow, 10 m higher than Good Dinosaur.

 

Not good for my Winter Game if it ends up happening.

It’s about the same as Tangled which finished at $200M.

[narniadis]

65m would be fine should take it around 200m +/- 10m

[dxmatrixdt]

Fandango reserved seating right now in late late afternoon is selling like shit right now.  It's Halloween, World Series Game 6 is on, and movies cost $5.50.  I think we will get normal Tuesday increases for everything except horror movies which should double Monday's number.  I just do not see anything special for Halloween-related movies that would cause anything to blow up beyond doubling Mondays number, which is, in fact, still less than last Friday's number. 

Edited November 1, 2017 by Matrix4You

[YM!]

Thor: Ragnarok 

North Shore Cinema

Mequon, WI (2 days before previews, 3 before release)

11/2/17

 

6:00 - 42/301 - Ultrascreen - Fan Event

7:00 - 67/139

8:00 - 24/122

9:00 - 81/301 - Ultrascreen 

10:00 - 7/139

10:30 - 3/112

11:00 - 5/122

11:25 - 6/112

11:55 - 4/301 - Ultrascreen

 

In terms of tickets sold, Ragnarok is 15% ahead of Homecoming. But In ticket percentages, Homecoming is ahead by about 17%. Ragnarok also has 3 more showings compared to Homecoming 6. Thinking an OW of $100M-$110M is my guess using the my theaters data.

Edited November 1, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

Justice League 

North Shore Cinema 

Mequon, WI (16 Days before previews, 17 before release)

 

6:00 - 51/301 - Ultrascreen

7:00 - 4/146

8:00 - 1/139

9:00 - 30/301 - Ultrascreen 

10:00 - 2/146

11:00 - 1/139

12:00 - 9/301 - Ultrascreen 

 

Running about 21% ahead of Ragnarok at about the same time.

 

[Deja23]

Not sure if this has been mentioned already, but Thor Ragnarok will open in 4,080 theaters. 

 

‘Thor: Ragnarok,’ ‘Bad Moms Christmas’ to Spark a Lackluster Box Office

Quote

Tracking for the third Thor movie has remained impressive since numbers came out last week with the latest forecasts in the $100 million to $118 million range for its launch weekend at 4,080 locations for the Friday-Sunday period. The rollout includes 3,400 3D screens, 391 Imax screens, 616 premium large format screens, and 204 D-Box locations.

 

Quote

“A Bad Moms Christmas” is getting a two-day jump on Thor with an opening on Wednesday at 3,615 North American sites with projections in the $23 million to $35 million range for the Wednesday-Sunday period. The “Bad Moms” sequel was produced for $28 million with Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, and Kathryn Hahn returning as under-appreciated and over-burdened women — with their mothers, played by Cheryl Hines, Christine Baranski, and Susan Sarandon, showing up unexpectedly for the Christmas season.

 

[Rumpot]

1 hour ago, Matrix4You said:

Fandango reserved seating right now in late late afternoon is selling like shit right now.  It's Halloween, World Series Game 6 is on, and movies cost $5.50.  I think we will get normal Tuesday increases for everything except horror movies which should double Monday's number.  I just do not see anything special for Halloween-related movies that would cause anything to blow up beyond doubling Mondays number, which is, in fact, still less than last Friday's number. 

Seeing the opposite around here.  These are all selling quite well