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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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grey ghost Global Phenomenon

grey ghost

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, feasby007 said:

No way, BP won't have the legs of BatB as it's not a completely 4-quad film. Perhaps there is an extremely slim chance, but very very unlikely. Even $400m is not certain at this point. Look at Civil war, massive opening and tapered off just over $400m due to its front-loaded-ness.

Black Panther will be less frontloaded because it's not a sequel plus many signs point to it being a cultural phenomenon which guarantees good to great legs.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, MaxAggressor said:

Didn't BATB end up with more pre-sales than CA:CW. @grim22 Can you confirm??

 

BATB was enormous and it released last year so there won't be a whole lot of discrepancy between pre-sales to OD/OW calculation. So BP beating BATB is a huge deal. It opens up amazing possibilities for Black Panther's OW. 160 million+ for the 3 day doesn't look so crazy thought atm. Could very well finish higher than that.

BaTB's pre-sales though were more spread out with $15m v  CW's $25m in Thur night previews. BP's w/e multiplier should be closer to CW's though better since it will have the Monday holiday softening the Sunday decline.

 

Interesting they didn't use BvS in the comp since it had the highest Thur Preview numbers of the March releases.

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Fifty Shades 864 3205 26.96%
Peter Rabbit 41 1292 3.17%
15:17 to Paris 12 1131 1.06%

 

Fifty Shades doubled its showtimes yesterday, so some times have way more tickets sold than others. Peter and 15:17 also just went on sale yesterday, but Peter Rabbit seems to be in okay enough shape.

Fifty Shades 1011 3205 31.54%
Peter Rabbit 178 1292 13.78%
15:17 to Paris 30 1131 2.65%
Black Panther 3199 3808 84.01%

 

Shades is trucking along fine, and Peter Rabbit saw a big boost, especially on Saturday. For Black Panther, every Saturday show is sold out, and so is almost all of Friday and Sunday. Monday only has one sold-out show, but I'm sure it'll get a couple more by the time the week's over.

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Stewart Box Office Gold

Stewart

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
Fifty Shades 1011 3205 31.54%
Peter Rabbit 178 1292 13.78%
15:17 to Paris 30 1131 2.65%
Black Panther 3199 3808 84.01%

 

Shades is trucking along fine, and Peter Rabbit saw a big boost, especially on Saturday. For Black Panther, every Saturday show is sold out, and so is almost all of Friday and Sunday. Monday only has one sold-out show, but I'm sure it'll get a couple more by the time the week's over.

Two words describe this. Holy F*ck! :ohmygod:

Edited by feasby007
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The Fast and the Furiosa Sleeper Hit

The Fast and the Furiosa

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

BaTB's pre-sales though were more spread out with $15m v  CW's $25m in Thur night previews. BP's w/e multiplier should be closer to CW's though better since it will have the Monday holiday softening the Sunday decline.

 

Interesting they didn't use BvS in the comp since it had the highest Thur Preview numbers of the March releases.

I believe they already mentioned that it passed presales of all superhero films at the same point earlier in the week. Didn’t want to double down on the headline I would assume

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted

http://deadline.com/2018/02/fifty-shades-freed-global-opening-1202276618/

 

Quote

Stateside, Universal see [Freed] opening around $33M, but there are those who believe it’s apt to do much higher between $36M-$40M.  Friday’s Olympics Opening Ceremony could slow business, however, the Summer Games have more of an impact on the box office.

 

[The 15:17 to Paris] is expected to deliver to Warner Bros./Village Roadshow about $10M-$15M stateside at 3,042 locations.

 

Sony Animation is making a go at families with its updated version of the Beatrix Potter children’s classic Peter Rabbit. Sony thinks it will open to $16M at 3,700 theaters given the recent damper on kids pics like Paddington 2 ($11M opening). However, that’s hardly a comp: Sony has a lot of heart and soul invested in this and the trailers emphasize the wild fun of it all. Analysts have the pic opening much higher between $20.5M, maybe even as high as $25M. Peter Rabbit was made with a sizeable Australian tax credit at a net of $50M. Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle looks to ease 35% for around $7M as its total cume climbs to $361M+.

 

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoolEric258 said:

Careful your mom doesn't look at your computer. Nothing wrong with being gay, but...

Not my computer wallpaper, it is on my phone wallpaper as a joke

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

Fifty Shades 1011 3205 31.54%
Peter Rabbit 178 1292 13.78%
15:17 to Paris 30 1131 2.65%
Black Panther 3199 3808 84.01%

 

Shades is trucking along fine, and Peter Rabbit saw a big boost, especially on Saturday. For Black Panther, every Saturday show is sold out, and so is almost all of Friday and Sunday. Monday only has one sold-out show, but I'm sure it'll get a couple more by the time the week's over.

Is that a Philly theater or a surburbian/rural one?  Trying to decide how much more I should join the Black Panther bandwagon (if you told me this was a central PA theater, I'd be falling over:)...

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted
Just now, TwoMisfits said:

Is that a Philly theater or a surburbian/rural one?  Trying to decide how much more I should join the Black Panther bandwagon (if you told me this was a central PA theater, I'd be falling over:)...

Suburban. I might look at some Philly theaters one day, but I don't know which ones are the most popular, and I'm really lazy, so...

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Anyone live in North Dakota or Idaho or something to get a read on how Black Panther might be pre-selling outside of major cities?:)

Sacramento is a medium sized city.  I'm also tracking theaters in our suburbs and exurbs, as well as a couple of theaters a town over or three.


Spoilered for length (Thursday Night Previews ONLY):

 

Spoiler

First column is if it is a sellout, second column simply designates it as a showing, third column is number seats left, fourth column is total number of seats at the screening (-wheelchair+companion), last column is percentage of seats sold.

 

If there's no other info, it's because it isn't reserved.  I have a lot more info on my personal sheet, but it's mostly to help my own bookkeeping easier.

 

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct

Arden

 

 

 

 

 

8:00 (3D)

1

1

0

161

100.00%

7:00 (2D)

 

1

10

260

96.15%

10:15 (2D)

 

1

43

260

83.46%

1:15 (2D)

 

1

258

260

0.77%

7:30 (2D)

1

1

0

110

100.00%

10:45 (2D)

 

1

18

110

83.64%

11:00 (2D)

 

1

63

161

60.87%

12:01 (2D)

 

1

122

161

24.22%

6:00 (3D)

1

1

0

161

100.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Davis

 

 

 

 

 

7:45 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

11:00 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

7:00 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

10:15 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Natomas

 

 

 

 

 

7:30 (3D)

 

1

210

305

31.15%

9:20 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

7:00 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

10:15 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

6:00 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

10:40 (2D)

 

1

303

305

0.66%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Greenback

 

 

 

 

 

8:00 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

10:30 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

7:00 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

7:30 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

9:00 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

10:45 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Woodland

 

 

 

 

 

7:00 (2D)

 

1

183

246

25.61%

10:00 (2D)

 

1

213

246

13.41%

7:45 (2D)

 

1

80

92

13.04%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Folsom

 

 

 

 

 

7:00 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

8:00 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

9:00 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

10:15 (3D)

 

1

 

 

 

7:30 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

8:30 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

9:30 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

10:45 (2D)

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Luxe

 

 

 

 

 

7:00 (2D)

 

1

14

44

68.18%

7:30 (2D)

 

1

11

45

75.56%

8:15 (2D)

 

1

11

38

71.05%

9:00 (2D)

 

1

32

35

8.57%

10:15 (2D)

 

1

32

44

27.27%

10:30 (2D)

 

1

32

45

28.89%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Palladio

 

 

 

 

 

7:30 (3D)

 

1

126

144

12.50%

7:00 (2D)

 

1

109

173

36.99%

8:00 (2D)

 

1

141

173

18.50%

10:00 (2D)

 

1

161

173

6.94%

7:15 (2D)

 

1

40

80

50.00%

7:45 (2D)

 

1

46

79

41.77%

6:00 (3D)

 

1

152

160

5.00%

 

 

 

 

 

 

El Dorado

 

 

 

 

 

7:00 (3D)

 

1

149

199

25.13%

10:15 (3D)

 

1

195

199

2.01%

7:00 (3D)

 

1

80

87

8.05%

10:15 (3D)

 

1

97

97

0.00%

7:00 (2D)

 

1

76

137

44.53%

10:15 (2D)

 

1

129

137

5.84%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Studio Grill

 

 

 

 

 

8:00 (2D)

 

1

31

147

78.91%

9:00 (2D)

 

1

29

82

64.63%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blue Oaks

 

 

 

 

 

8:00 (3D)

 

1

12

59

79.66%

10:15 (2D)

 

1

91

93

2.15%

7:00 (2D)

 

1

82

93

11.83%

7:30 (2D)

 

1

15

113

86.73%

10:45 (2D)

 

1

37

113

67.26%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Doco

 

 

 

 

 

10:15 (3D)

 

1

154

191

19.37%

7:00 (2D)

 

1

36

191

81.15%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Laguna

 

 

 

 

 

8:00 (3D)

 

1

11

55

80.00%

10:15 (3D)

 

1

93

156

40.38%

7:00 (2D)

 

1

6

156

96.15%

11:15 (2D)

 

1

16

55

70.91%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Roseville

 

 

 

 

 

8:00 (3D)

 

1

62

102

39.22%

7:00 (2D)

 

1

41

157

73.89%

10:15 (2D)

 

1

102

157

35.03%

 

 

 

 

 

 

IMAX

 

 

 

 

 

7:00 (2D)

 

1

120

377

68.17%

10:00 (2D)

 

1

232

377

38.46%

 

 

 

 

 

 

TOTALS

3

73

4306

7601

43.35%

 

Upshot:

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

3

73

4306

7601

43.35%


Just had three showings added today, which depressed the overall percentage a bit; haven't done an update of the rest of the showings as I'll do that tonight.  

 

I hesitate to say it isn't doing well in the 'burbs, as it is in a couple.  But in other areas its crickets right now.  Emphasis on right now.

 

I can imagine BP is selling like hotcakes in many areas.  But here in the Greater Sacramento region it is still behind Rogue One and well behind The Last Jedi. In seats sold and in showings available.

 

Doesn't mean it won't pass R1 locally.  Just that it hasn't yet.

 

Edited by Porthos
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