The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TalismanRing]

12 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

But probably is not the most important factor that we have... CW had a better presales than Ultron and TA... 

Pre-sales are growing exponentially every year - so a year is a lot and 4 years is just another era.   Which is why AIW currently doubling BP's pre-sales on Fandango - just two months later - is the best sign for a break out over $200m o/w.

Edited April 13, 2018 by TalismanRing

[fabiopazzo2]

11 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Pre-sales are growing exponentially every year - so a year is a lot and 4 years is just another era.   Which is why AIW currently doubling BP's pre-sales on Fandango - just two months later - is the best sign for a break out over $200m o/w.

I’m confident this film pass 200m in three days. I mean, presales is not the most important factor that we have for this type of film 

 

My range is 210-225, I don’t think have a chance to pass TFA

Edited April 13, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

My range is 210-225, I don’t think have a chance to pass TFA

Said it before; will keep saying it coz it's true.  The 250 million dollar question is:  Are these presales eating into the normal 'walkups' Marvel is justifiably famous for?  And if so, by how much.

 

The subquestion is:  How many presales are shifting from FSS to Preview night, if any, and how many Week One/Two presales are shifting to Weekend One?

 

That might be the difference between a 225 OW and a 250 OW.

 

===

 

I suppose I could be checking FSS for seat counts.  But, one, ain't no one got time to do that manually and, two, I don't have like for like-for-like data, so it'd be pretty useless regardless.

 

(This is where Deep Wang's 30,000 ft level data was particularly useful, BTW)

Edited April 13, 2018 by Porthos

[dxmatrixdt]

guesses for the previews

2.7M - Rampage

0.9M - T or D

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, Thematrixfilm said:

guesses for the previews

2.7M - Rampage

0.9M - T or D

My guess is pretty much exactly what you have.

 

Also RT audience score update:

 

Rampage - 77%

Truth or Dare - 32% (ouch)

[Jaybee]

3 minutes ago, DAJK said:

My guess is pretty much exactly what you have.

 

Also RT audience score update:

 

Rampage - 77%

Truth or Dare - 32% (ouch)

Isn't it almost equal to San Andreas premier (around 3m I think) . But oflate predictions hasn't been encouraging for ow if I am not wrong !any idea abt it ?

[Boxofficerules]

4 hours ago, DAJK said:

My guess is pretty much exactly what you have.

 

Also RT audience score update:

 

Rampage - 77%

Truth or Dare - 32% (ouch)

Truth Or Dare have gone down to 21%, on par with Ouija and The Gallows (my worst Blumhouse movies)

Edited April 13, 2018 by Boxofficerules

[el sid]

MT update. Rampage and Truth Or Dare gain ground:

#1 AQP 20.8%
#2 A: IW 18.1%
#3 Rampage 15.3%
#4 Truth Or Dare 10.8%
#5 Blockers 6%

Edit: Rampage will probably benefit a lot from walk ups, still I`m also surprised that it increases so slowly on MT and also Pulse (yesterday I counted 5 minutes  - conventional method - and Rampage sold 53 tickets, a bit more than only 1/3 of what AQP had at the same daytime...).

Edited April 13, 2018 by el sid

[Jaybee]

5 minutes ago, el sid said:

MT update. Rampage and Truth Or Dare gain ground:

#1 AQP 20.8%
#2 A: IW 18.1%
#3 Rampage 15.3%
#4 Truth Or Dare 10.8%
#5 Blockers 6%

Any idea abt preview figures?

[el sid]

12 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

Any idea abt preview figures?

Me, no idea. But some people here know quite well how to estimate them. And in ca. 3 hours, hsx and boxoffice.com will report the actual preview numbers.
Edit: I saw that Thematrixfilm and DAJK go with 2.7M for Rampage and 0.9M for Truth Or Dare (in the comments above).

Edited April 13, 2018 by el sid

[Jaybee]

7 minutes ago, el sid said:

Me, no idea. But some people here know quite well how to estimate them. And in ca. 3 hours, hsx and boxoffice.com will report the actual preview numbers.

Thanku

[Rumpot]

5 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

I’m confident this film pass 200m in three days. I mean, presales is not the most important factor that we have for this type of film 

 

My range is 210-225, I don’t think have a chance to pass TFA

Many say it, but my pet peeve is any variation of the phrase "doesn't have a chance." Of course it has a chance.  So no matter what actually happens these phrases are immediately wrong.  

[fabiopazzo2]

6 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Many say it, but my pet peeve is any variation of the phrase "doesn't have a chance." Of course it has a chance.  So no matter what actually happens these phrases are immediately wrong.  

Nothing is impossible, but for me Avengers IW (in this moment) can’t pass TFA 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

4 hours ago, DAJK said:

My guess is pretty much exactly what you have.

 

Also RT audience score update:

 

Rampage - 77%

Truth or Dare - 32% (ouch)

lmfao, TOD is going to drop HARD tomorrow  

[efialtes76]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

lmfao, TOD is going to drop HARD tomorrow  

Now at 21%...

Rampage-81%.

[Jaybee]

19 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Now at 21%...

Rampage-81%.

IS WOM for rampage average?

[a2k]

Will be fun to see if Truth or Dare manages a 2.0x multiplier

[Dandeak2000]

43 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Will be fun to see if Truth or Dare manages a 2.0x multiplier

I think $16M opening with a less than 2x multi is pretty likely

 

$16M Opening

$5.6M 2nd Weekend (-65%) Total: $24.1M

$2.5M 3rd Weekend (-55%) Total: $27.9M

$1M 4th Weekend (-60%) Total: $29.8M

$403K 5th Weekend (-60%) Total: $30.4M

$121K 6th Weekend (-70%) Total: $30.6M

$36K 7th Weekend (-70%) Total: $30.65M

$12K 8th Weekend (-65%) Total: $30.67M (1.92x multi) (Likely lose all its theaters after that.)

Edited April 13, 2018 by Mike Hunt

[WrathOfHan]

Theater update:
 

Spoiler

 

Rampage:

 

10:15: 35/124

11:30 3D: 4/78

12:50: 4/124

1:25 3D: 2/60

2:05 3D: 2/78

3:25: 4/124

4:40 3D: 3/78

6:00: 7/124

7:15 3D: 4/78

8:35: 5/124

9:50 3D: 0/78

 

Truth or Dare:

 

11:45: 3/113

2:15: 1/113

4:45: 4/113

7:15: 27/113

9:00: 0/78

10:00: 2/113

 

A Quiet Place:

 

10:45: 10/78

1:05: 0/78

3:25: 0/78

5:45: 0/78

7:00: 13/67

8:00: 7/78

9:30: 2/67

10:30: 0/78

 

Ready Player One:

 

10:55: 10/78

1:05 3D: 1/69

4:35: 0/78

6:45 3D: 0/69

9:15: 0/78

 

I Can Only Imagine:

 

10:25: 4/78

1:10: 0/78

3:50: 2/78

6:25: 4/78

 

Blockers:

 

10:35: 2/69

2:05: 0/78

4:15: 3/69

7:45: 3/78

10:00: 0/63

 

The Miracle Season:

 

12:30: 4/63

5:15: 2/63

 

Isle of Dogs:

 

10:55: 0/78

1:30: 4/78

4:05: 0/78

6:40: 0/78

10:15: 0/78

 

Acrimony:

 

10:20: 3/78

1:10: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

6:50: 0/78

9:40: 0/78

 

Sherlock Gnomes:

 

10:15: 2/63

3:00: 0/63

7:45: 0/63

 

Pacific Rim:

 

4:10: 0/60

9:15: 1/60

 

 

 

Rampage: 70/1,070 (Up 17) (55 2D/15 3D)

Truth or Dare: 37/643 (Up 13)

A Quiet Place: 32/602 (Up 11) (-40% from last week)

Ready Player One: 11/372 (Up 3) (10 2D/1 3D) (-50% from last week)

I Can Only Imagine: 10/312 (Up 3) (+100% from last week)

Blockers: 8/357 (Up 3) (-65% from last week)

The Miracle Season: 6/126 (Up 2) (-65% from last week)

Isle of Dogs: 4/390 (Up 2)

Acrimony: 3/390 (-60% from last week)

Sherlock Gnomes: 2/189 (Up 2) (-50% from last week)

Pacific Rim: 1/120 (-85% from last week)

Sgt. Stubby has sold nothing.

 

When Sherlock Gnomes manages to sell tickets and Sgt. Stubby can't, that's pretty fucking embarrassing  

 

Rampage comps:

 

11% of Black Panther (22.2M)

17% of Thor: Ragnarok (20.9M)

23% of Justice League (21.6M)

65% of Kingsman (25.4M)

75% of Jumanji (27.2M)

90% of Pacific Rim (25.3M)

90% of Ready Player One (37.6M)

145% of Blade Runner (47.6M)

185% of Tomb Raider (43.7M)

 

Truth or Dare:

 

67% of A Quiet Place (33.6M)

75% of Happy Death Day (19.5M)

85% of Insidious 4 (25.2M)

85% of Jigsaw (13.9M)

160% of Winchester (14.9M)

220% of Annihilation (24.4M)

[MCKillswitch123]

48 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

IS WOM for rampage average?

Right now, it's at 80% on RT's audience score. Comparative to other VG movies in the last 2 years:

 

Warcraft - 77%

Tomb Raider - 63%

Resident Evil: The Final Chapter - 49%

The Angry Birds Movie - 46%

Assassin's Creed - 43%

Ratchet & Clank - 42%

 

For other giant destruction movies:

 

Kong: Skull Island - 69%

Godzilla ('14) - 66%

Transformers: Age Of Extinction - 51%

Pacific Rim Uprising - 49%

Transformers: The Last Knight - 45%

 

And for other Rock movies including his previous Brad Peyton collabs:

 

Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle - 88%

Furious 7 - 82%

The Fate Of The Furious - 73%

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - 59%

Baywatch - 56%

San Andreas - 52%

 

So I guess you can take it as good wom (for now). Though Warcraft has a higher audience score than all of these except Jumanji and Furious 7 (and Rampage, technically), so take that as you will.