The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Deadpool 2

2. Solo

3. Infinity War

4. Solo 3D

5. Book Club

[YLF]

How can tracking still have solo as 130-150M?

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, YLF said:

How can tracking still have solo as 130-150M?

 

 

Last Jedi fanboys who want to believe

[Welfin]

37 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. Deadpool 2

2. Solo

3. Infinity War

4. Solo 3D

5. Book Club

 

I can only laugh so much. 

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Welfin said:

 

I can only laugh so much. 

Pulse Tracker:

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-05-23 21:59:17 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-05-23 21:00:00	1064	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-05-23 21:00:00	897	Deadpool 2
2018-05-23 21:00:00	189	Solo A Star Wars Story 3D
2018-05-23 21:00:00	144	Avengers Infinity War
2018-05-23 21:00:00	102	Book Club
2018-05-23 21:00:00	57	Solo A Star Wars Story The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-23 21:00:00	48	Solo A Star Wars Story An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-05-23 21:00:00	32	Deadpool 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-23 21:00:00	27	Life of the Party
2018-05-23 21:00:00	25	Breaking In (2018)

 

Tend to think that's a bit more accurate than whatever hidden algorithm Pulse uses.

[Mojoguy]

Solo's Thursday previews are going to be bad aren't they?

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Solo's Thursday previews are going to be bad aren't they?

For a random memorial day midsize opener, no.

For a $250M+ produced Star Wars pedigree tentpole, yes.

[MovieMan89]

57 minutes ago, YLF said:

How can tracking still have solo as 130-150M?

The same mentality that kept JL forecasts way higher than it actually was: people think because it's in a certain franchise it has to hit a certain mark. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The same mentality that kept JL forecasts way higher than it actually was: people think because it's in a certain franchise it has to hit a certain mark. 

And to be fair, it still might (yes, I've been one of the ones saying it isn't happening, but you never know for certain until the BO actually shows up:)...but I strongly doubt the tracking, if for no other reason than it's dropped literally $20M in three days...few movies go down that fast...usually it tends to be the reverse and they go up as presales just start exploding...

[Porthos]

Solo: A Star Wars Story GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-1 Day and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

1/142 (+0/+7) [R1: 17/144]

 

2D:  0/106 (+0/+24) [R1: 14/98]

3D:  0/36 (+0/+8) [R1: 3/46]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 108 showings [+1] [R1: 48]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 6]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

2 (+1) [R1: 6]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

15 (+1) [R1: 23]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 0]

 

Weekend Showings

Fr:   0/292 (+0/+14)

St:   0/293 (+0/+15)

Su:  0/288  (+0/+13)  

Mo: 0/272 (+0/+11)

 

---

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (108/142 showings [+1/+7]):

100%:      1 (nc)

90-99%:   4 (nc)

80-89%:   7 (+1)

70-79%:  11 (+2)

60-69%:   8 (+1)

50-59%:   6 (-3)

40-49%:   4 (nc)

30-39%:   8 (+3)

20-29%:   7 (+1)

10-19%:  17 (+10)

0-9%:     35 (-14)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	142	8575	13453	36.26%

 

Total Shows Added Today:      7 (6 non reserved)

Total Seat Added Today:       73
Total Seats Sold Today:       377

----

.4229x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 1 day before release. (IW had 21 more days of pre-sales)
.8227x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 1 day before release. (BP had 18 more days of pre-sales)
.8227x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2* 1 day before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

 

 

* NOTE:  DP2 is also playing in 4 more theaters locally and had 11 more screens tracked at the same point in time.  

[Sam]

Yup, this is still selling terrible at both my local Regal and Cinemark theaters. Especially for shows past 9:00p (which is a whole lot of them since show ones only start around 7). And they’re not just selling slow, many are completely empty when I checked just 30min ago.

 

I think previews will be in the low teens. If I have to guess, 13M or less sounds about right. 

 

Memorial Day weekend can throw off the multiplier pattern of Star Wars movies. But I doubt holiday would help that much for it to shoot up from the typical 4s/5s to 7s/8s. 

Edited May 24, 2018 by Sam

[YLF]

Yikes. so many showtimes with only a few seats sold in LA for previews. Even the first showing of this are empty in some AMC theaters. Its remarkable. There seems to be less demand at my two closest AMC theaters than there was for AQP. Obviously this movie will make more than that but those tickets were sold out for the first few showings at my local theaters the day before.

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, YLF said:

Yikes. so many showtimes with only a few seats sold in LA for previews. Even the first showing of this are empty in some AMC theaters. Its remarkable. There seems to be less demand at my two closest AMC theaters than there was for AQP. Obviously this movie will make more than that but those tickets were sold out for the first few showings at my local theaters the day before.

 

The most crazy fact is that you can still get tickets for the first showings of both IMAX and normal at the Chinese. That is the Star Wars theater where fans used to line up for movies. Maybe they are lining up and just forgot to buy tickets beforehand.

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, Sam said:

Yup, this is still selling terrible at both my local Regal and Cinemark theaters. Especially for shows past 9:30p. And they’re not just selling slow, the lots of them are completely empty when I checked 30min ago.

 

I think previews will be in the low teens. If I have to guess, 13M or less sounds about right. 

 

Memorial Day weekend can throw off the multiplier pattern of Star Wars movies. But I doubt holiday would help that much for it to shoot up from the typical 4s/5s to 7s/8s. 

The bigger the SW previews the lower the ratio.  And MD is a different beast.

 

57m - 4.35

45m; 4.88

29m: 5.34

 

If that pattern holds previews at half of RO could mean another jump into the low 6s and combined with the MD could reach into the 7/8s for the 3 Day

 

Recent MD Preview to o/w multipliers

 

Pirates 5:   5.5/ $62.98/ $78.47   -  11.45x /3 Day and 14.8x / 4 Day

X-Men Apoc:  8.2 / $65.76/  $79.8    8x / 3 Day and 9.7x/ 4 Day

X-Men DOFP: 8.10 / $90.8/ $110.5 -   11.2x/ 3 Day and  13.4x - 4 Day  (10pm and later previews)

Edited May 24, 2018 by TalismanRing

[YLF]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

The most crazy fact is that you can still get tickets for the first showings of both IMAX and normal at the Chinese. That is the Star Wars theater where fans used to line up for movies. Maybe they are lining up and just forgot to buy tickets beforehand.

You're right. I didnt even check TCL for showtimes. It will be interesting to see what this movie does domestically, because the presales are just not there. 

[DAJK]

24 hours before previews this was at our equivalent of 4.3M in pre-sales at my theatre for tomorrow night. Unfortunately I did not work the Wednesdays before the opening of other recent movies so I don't have any comps of 24-hours before. But it seems pretty damn fucking weak for a Star Wars movie from what I can remember, but really good/at least decent if it played like a non-Infinity War comic book movie.

 

Also, Incredibles 2 is already at our equivalent of 2.3M in pre-sales for my theatre for opening day. REALLY good, considering kids movies, even Dory, didn't do very good at all with pre-sales up until about the last 5 days or so before they opened. 

[TLK]

Fandango Presales Volume.

 

Date           Name                      Monday      Tuesday       Wednesday
04/06/18    A Quiet Place           2177          4003            10665
04/06/18    Blockers                  504            1106            2931
04/13/18    Rampage                705            1508            4109
04/13/18    Truth Or Dare         385            760              2133
04/20/18    Super Troopers 2    2825          3447            6811
04/20/18    I Feel Pretty             871            1610           4423
04/27/18    Avengers 3              49836        54892         68826   
05/04/18    Overboard               84              409            1044

05/11/18    Breaking In              727            1204           2899
05/11/18    Life Of The Party      587            1310          3010

05/18/18    Deadpool 2              23134        28896         41212
05/18/18    Show Dogs              6               128             369
05/18/18    Book Club                836            1599           3283

05/25/18    Solo : Star Wars       13688       15855         28533

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Solo had a good 80% Tuesday-Wednesday jump but still lags Deadpool 2's Wednesday presales by a significant margin. Walkups will completely determine whether it performs in line with the tracking or not.

[Boxofficerules]

Solo still not number 1 on MT.

[TalismanRing]

35 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Solo still not number 1 on MT.

Too early for an MT update - it's still on last night's %s

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

58 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Too early for an MT update - it's still on last night's %s

Its on now. Solo at 41.6% compared to Deadpool’s 30.2%