The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, rishijoesanu said:

Brie was apparently born in Sacramento. Maybe it's just the locals showing support to one of their own

I've heard about that and while it might be a factor, I just think it's more we're right smack in middle for the perfect demos for this movie.  Couple of major colleges, diverse community, <REASON DELETED TO STAY AWAY FROM THAT TOPIC PLAGUING THE CM THREAD>. Plus we've historically loved Sci-Fi/Fantasy in this community, and Superhero flicks are part and parcel of that genre.

 

Like, I haven't heard that much buzz around town about Brie's connection to Sacramento.

 

...

 

Now if they played up a Tower Records connection, that might be a different story. 

 

===

 

In other words, this isn't quite a Lady Bird situation where the city itself was part of the plot.  We may be a cowtown, but we're not quite that provincial.

 

...

 

Probably. 😬

Edited March 7, 2019 by Porthos

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I've heard about that and while it might be a factor, I just think it's more we're right smack in middle for the perfect demos for this movie.  Couple of major colleges, diverse community, <REASON DELETED TO STAY AWAY FROM THAT TOPIC PLAGUING THE CM THREAD>. Plus we've historically loved Sci-Fi/Fantasy in this community, and Superhero flicks are part and parcel of that genre.

 

Like, I haven't heard that much buzz around town about Brie's connection to Sacramento.

 

...

 

Now if they played up a Tower Records connection, that might be a different story. 

 

===

 

In other words, this isn't quite a Lady Bird situation where the city itself was part of the plot.  We may be a cowtown, but we're not quite that provincial.

 

...

 

Probably. 😬

if captain marvel is that huge as it seems to be everywhere then endgame is gonna crush it even more than i thought

[RealLyre]

3 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

I was kind of in disbelief of yesterday’s sales, but today didn’t just keep track, it actually picked up a lot relative to the only other comps of the same size. No clue what is going on any more, just going to strap in, watch numbers, and enjoy the ride.

the MCU fanbase has significantly grown over the past year since IW came out, a lot of people in my social circle and twitter feed are saying stuff along the lines of  "Can't wait to see CM so I can stop avoiding spoilers" and everyone wanna know how she connects to IW/EG. and they don't want to get spoiled on the post credit scenes. so I don't expect this movie to play like first timer origin solo and be more like a very front-loaded sequel cus there's going to be a huge fan rush to see it on Day 1.

 

so while the Thursday previews will be huge (something like 23M-25M) the internal multi is probably going to be very low and open to around 155-170ish.  and wouldn't be too surprised if it's on the lower end of that range.

 

while the movie is a blast and I thought it was amazing and has so much rewatch value i think the 2nd weekend will suffer a front-loaded sequel like drop of 60% or higher (if the opening is 150M+)

 

in any case the opening weekend is going to be huge so   Kevin Feige 

 

 

Edited March 7, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[DeeCee]

@Porthos Apparently Brie doesn’t really remember Sacramento, doesn’t like talking about Sacramento and doesn’t like other people asking about Sacramento.  Other then that I haven’t heard her say a bad word about the place. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

It's weird that in US, female lead films are pre-sales heavy. In India its complete opposite but I don't have data to support it.

 

But, China, 59.6% of tickets of Captain Marvel are booked by Males, however the ratio during the final numbers post release will be 50-50.

[john2000]

17 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It's weird that in US, female lead films are pre-sales heavy. In India its complete opposite but I don't have data to support it.

 

But, China, 59.6% of tickets of Captain Marvel are booked by Males, however the ratio during the final numbers post release will be 50-50.

whats do you think about ow could challenge beauty and the beast ?

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, john2000 said:

whats do you think about ow could challenge beauty and the beast ?

I can only comment when I see some numbers because I don't know what environment is there for film in US. The earliest I can comment is Friday 10AM EST.

[RealLyre]

30 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I can only comment when I see some numbers because I don't know what environment is there for film in US. The earliest I can comment is Friday 10AM EST.

I feel like it would need AT LEAST 24M-25M thursday previews to be able to take down the March record. I have a feeling CM will be way way more front-loaded than usual solo MCU flicks.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

I feel like it would need AT LEAST 24M-25M thursday previews to be able to take down the March record. I have a feeling CM will be way way more front-loaded than usual solo MCU flicks.

 

 

The frontloaded ness of Marvel previews increase with every Avengers film. The new normal is 34% of Previews in Opening Day compared to 31% before Infinity War.

 

However, due to Women's day I expected it to be around 32% as Friday should be boosted. But people here believe other wise.

 

I expect $23-24mn previews and that shall give $67-69mn opening day. A 30% bump on Saturday on true Friday and 25% dip on Sunday. True FSS should be 3.27X true Friday, i.e. 7.4X approx of Thursday.

 

$23.75mn will do.

 

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

2019-03-07 13:00:30.588808 UTC
1	76.7%	Captain Marvel
2	5.4%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
3	3.5%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
4	1.5%	Green Book
5	1.5%	Alita: Battle Angel

2018-02-15 13:01:26.898713 UTC
1	47.8%	Black Panther
2	25.9%	Fifty Shades Freed
3	4.1%	Peter Rabbit
4	2.9%	15:17 to Paris, The
5	2.4%	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Edited March 7, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[MCKillswitch123]

3 hours ago, RealLyre said:

the MCU fanbase has significantly grown over the past year since IW came out, a lot of people in my social circle and twitter feed are saying stuff along the lines of  "Can't wait to see CM so I can stop avoiding spoilers" and everyone wanna know how she connects to IW/EG. and they don't want to get spoiled on the post credit scenes. so I don't expect this movie to play like first timer origin solo and be more like a very front-loaded sequel cus there's going to be a huge fan rush to see it on Day 1.

 

so while the Thursday previews will be huge (something like 23M-25M) the internal multi is probably going to be very low and open to around 155-170ish.  and wouldn't be too surprised if it's on the lower end of that range.

 

while the movie is a blast and I thought it was amazing and has so much rewatch value i think the 2nd weekend will suffer a front-loaded sequel like drop of 60% or higher (if the opening is 150M+)

 

in any case the opening weekend is going to be huge so   Kevin Feige 

 

Infinity War could've been massively frontloaded due to anti-spoiler fan rush and it turned out to have good legs.

 

It might be frontloaded, but how frontloaded depends entirely on wom.

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

It's weird that in US, female lead films are pre-sales heavy.

1

Outside of Captain Marvel (and the Star Wars films with a female lead), what other examples are there? Wasn't Wonder Woman walk-up heavy?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Outside of Captain Marvel (and the Star Wars films with a female lead), what other examples are there? Wasn't Wonder Woman walk-up heavy?

Hunger Games and Twilight are two off the top of my head that would have been very presale heavy for their time.

[Valonqar]

I surmised from older posts that Twilight and THG were also pre-sales heavy.

 

but anyway, it's interesting that WW didn't generate urgency to secure ticket unlike CM. I think it may be WWI setting. SH movies set in contemporary times or very near past (that still feels contemporary) tend to do better. 

Edited March 7, 2019 by Valonqar

[Yandereprime101189]

20 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Spoiler

 

MT

 

2019-03-07 13:00:30.588808 UTC
1	76.7%	Captain Marvel
2	5.4%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
3	3.5%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
4	1.5%	Green Book
5	1.5%	Alita: Battle Angel

2018-02-15 13:01:26.898713 UTC
1	47.8%	Black Panther
2	25.9%	Fifty Shades Freed
3	4.1%	Peter Rabbit
4	2.9%	15:17 to Paris, The
5	2.4%	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

 

 

Marveltastic for Captain Marvel

 

Not so good for Alita.

Edited March 7, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[Nova]

10 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Outside of Captain Marvel (and the Star Wars films with a female lead), what other examples are there? Wasn't Wonder Woman walk-up heavy?

Ocean’s 8. A Star Is Born. Mamma Mia. There are others too from last year. If you look at the Fandango numbers posted on here, the female led films tend to have way more presales than other films when you compare. 

 

Wonder Woman wasn’t necessarily walk up heavy from what I remember. Just that it had great WOM which allowed it to have an unusual IM for a CBM throughout the weekend and obviously it’s legs were fantastic. 

Edited March 7, 2019 by Nova

[Horner]

23 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Infinity War could've been massively frontloaded due to anti-spoiler fan rush and it turned out to have good legs.

 

It might be frontloaded, but how frontloaded depends entirely on wom.

 

The ending generated so much buzz for that movie it helped drive people out to see what all of the fuss was about.  There were references to "The Snap" flying all over social media and getting mentioned in circles that don't normally talk all that much about CB movies.  Even the Russos said they didn't expect it to get the reaction it did.  In retrospect you almost wonder how could they not have.

Edited March 7, 2019 by Horner

[EconomySize]

Looking at the akvalley fandango sales for thursday previews historically, and CMs total as of last night - I took CoolErics ~70k in sales for BP and proected them out to Captain Marvel (using the same ratio of dates as has been bought previously).  That way we can compare thursday to thursday *like* fandango sales.  Aquaman and AMTW have been removed for being holiday related:

 

 

Movie        Thursday   CM as of       Proj               Movie

                  Tix   midnight   CM Total    Ratio   Previews   CM Estimate

AvengersIW     205486      83760     107061     .521         39         20.31

Deadpool 2      89501      83760     107061     1.19       18.6         22.25

Solo            67099      83760     107061     1.60       14.1         22.50

Jurassic W      46033      83760     107061     2.32       15.3         35.36?!?

Venom           46724      83760     107061     2.29       10.0         22.91

Black Panther  112340      83760     107061     .849       25.2         24.02

 

As has been mentioned however, BP had three weeks of presales, and giving the AKValley data a quick once over, it looks like ~15% of sales were in the first week.  I think it would be reasonable then to either assign BP extra sales for comp purposes *or* to remove the projection of the last days worth of sales from CM (Assuming last day sales rougly equals first week sales). That nets us the following projection

 

Black Panther  112340      83760      83760     .746       25.2         18.79

 

If you want to quibble with the BP sales adjustment, that's fine, but I would be hard pressed to get that number up above 20.  Considering (outside of JWFK), the MCU movies look around 20, while the non MCU movies look about 22, that gives us a general range for presales.  Given the following multipliers Preview to OW multipliers from boxofficereport

IW 6.607641 DP2 6.747688 Solo 5.987234 JW2 9.674837 AM2 6.592348 Venom 8.0256 FB2 6.831099

 

We can assume somewhere between 20-23 in presales with a 6.5 to 7 multiplier which nets us a range of 130m - 161m using the low/low and high/high estimates.  I had previously built a log model and an exponential model of OW/PG ratio, and the ranges on that one are 144-163, which is a little more optimistic (it uses data from a few years ago if it fits criteria which skews the sample) - Those numbers look like the prospective range.  I just want to tap the breaks on everybody who is getting wound up about a projected 160+m opening.  Yeah, that's in high end of range, but upside/downside are usually equal so it is seemingly just as likely to hit 175 as it is to hit 125.  The numbers over the past few weeks have generally looked ~130-140ish mean projections, and nothing has really moved the needle *that* much.  Middle of the range says 145 - absolutely great opening.

[Panda]

1 minute ago, Horner said:

 

The ending generated so much buzz for that movie it helped drive people out to see what all of the fuss was about.  There were references to "The Snap" flying all over social media and getting mentioned in circles that don't normally talk all that much about CB movies.

The memes were/are off the charts. Thanos is still quoted often, probably the most quotable MCU movie by far.

[Panda]

2 minutes ago, EconomySize said:

Looking at the akvalley fandango sales for thursday previews historically, and CMs total as of last night - I took CoolErics ~70k in sales for BP and proected them out to Captain Marvel (using the same ratio of dates as has been bought previously).  That way we can compare thursday to thursday *like* fandango sales.  Aquaman and AMTW have been removed for being holiday related:

 

 

Movie        Thursday   CM as of       Proj               Movie

                  Tix   midnight   CM Total    Ratio   Previews   CM Estimate

AvengersIW     205486      83760     107061     .521         39         20.31

Deadpool 2      89501      83760     107061     1.19       18.6         22.25

Solo            67099      83760     107061     1.60       14.1         22.50

Jurassic W      46033      83760     107061     2.32       15.3         35.36?!?

Venom           46724      83760     107061     2.29       10.0         22.91

Black Panther  112340      83760     107061     .849       25.2         24.02

 

As has been mentioned however, BP had three weeks of presales, and giving the AKValley data a quick once over, it looks like ~15% of sales were in the first week.  I think it would be reasonable then to either assign BP extra sales for comp purposes *or* to remove the projection of the last days worth of sales from CM (Assuming last day sales rougly equals first week sales). That nets us the following projection

 

Black Panther  112340      83760      83760     .746       25.2         18.79

 

If you want to quibble with the BP sales adjustment, that's fine, but I would be hard pressed to get that number up above 20.  Considering (outside of JWFK), the MCU movies look around 20, while the non MCU movies look about 22, that gives us a general range for presales.  Given the following multipliers Preview to OW multipliers from boxofficereport

IW 6.607641 DP2 6.747688 Solo 5.987234 JW2 9.674837 AM2 6.592348 Venom 8.0256 FB2 6.831099

 

We can assume somewhere between 20-23 in presales with a 6.5 to 7 multiplier which nets us a range of 130m - 161m using the low/low and high/high estimates.  I had previously built a log model and an exponential model of OW/PG ratio, and the ranges on that one are 144-163, which is a little more optimistic (it uses data from a few years ago if it fits criteria which skews the sample) - Those numbers look like the prospective range.  I just want to tap the breaks on everybody who is getting wound up about a projected 160+m opening.  Yeah, that's in high end of range, but upside/downside are usually equal so it is seemingly just as likely to hit 175 as it is to hit 125.  The numbers over the past few weeks have generally looked ~130-140ish mean projections, and nothing has really moved the needle *that* much.  Middle of the range says 145 - absolutely great opening.

This is some god-tier analysis right here. Do you work in the business?