The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, raulbalarezo said:

Seriously what the hell is happening here lmao

BOT after dark 

[stealthyfrog]

2 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Seriously what the hell is happening here lmao

BOT is in Pokemeltdown mode and the movie hasn't even come out yet

[filmlover]

It honestly feels like the buzz for Detective Pikachu peaked a while ago. Pulling the numbers it's looking to pull really doesn't surprise me one bit.

[charlie Jatinder]

This was me

 

 

[DeeCee]

28 minutes ago, Mulder said:

NIRD

Moderation

 

Exactly

 

How hard is it to report things?

 

There was 1 report. 

 

Seriously! Report off topic crap.  Report gif spamming.  Report spamming.  Report inappropriate and offensive posts.

 

You can both report and give a "Not Cool" reaction.  It's not an either/or.  

 

Mods only find out if you report.

 

Regards

BOT Staff

 

 

[Porthos]

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	101	7619	9404	18.98%

 

Total Showings Added Today:             30 (includes 13 non-reserved seating showings)

Total Seats Added Today:                1272

Total Seats Sold Today:                     300

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.4512x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 2 days before release.           

.4877x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 2 days before release.

.6744x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp 2 days before release.

.7095x as many tickers sold as Venom 2 days before release.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-2 days:

JW2           551 tickets sold [0 sellouts/145 showings | 10171/13595 seats left | 25.19% sold]

AM2          268 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |  8605/10896 seats left  | 21.03% sold]

Pika (JW)    277 tickets sold [0 sellouts/101 showings |  6338/7883 seats left    | 19.0% sold]

Venom      n/a  tickets sold [0 sellouts/117 showings | 10486/12744 seats left | 17.72% sold]

FB2           396 tickets sold [0 sellouts/124 showings | 11831/15116 seats left | 21.73% sold] 

Pika (FBj)   291 tickets sold [0 sellouts/101 showings |  6938/8540 seats left    | 18.76% sold]

Pika (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom and Ant-Man and the Wasp.

Pika (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald and Venom

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	9100	9783	6.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      47

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu (which is still in pre-sales).  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.4112x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 17 days before release. 

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

T-16:

Pika:    33  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/75 showings   |  8164/8648 seats left   |  5.60% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.5163x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 16 days before release.

.4346x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 16 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

T-16 days:

JW2               106 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |   8856/10113 seats left | 12.43% sold]

Aladdin (JW)    41 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   7790/8439 seats left   |   7.69% sold]

FB2                 58 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 11879/13377 seats left |  11.20% sold] 

Aladdin (FB)    41 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   8226/8877 seats left    |  7.33% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

[Mulder]

Seems like the Tuesday increase for DP was a bit muted. Is that bad or normal?

[HouseOfTheSun]

3 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Seems like the Tuesday increase for DP was a bit muted. Is that bad or normal?

It means you’re either near capacity or you’re probably leaning frontloaded. 

[Biggestgeekever]

I'm not sensing the same deflation of hype, and I feel like a combination of thinking it'd do 100+ and Endgame is coloring ya'lls perceptions just a bit. The DP videos Ryan Reynolds has put on his youtube channels have been doing phenomenally well so there's certainly plenty of online hype for it, and Fandango sales have seem a big uptick today that will make it look better with the comps used. I noticed the trades are looking to go with $50M, which I'm not surprised by; the tracking services they use often rely on precedent, and keep in mind the biggest videogame opener is still the first Tomb Raider at $47M.

 

We'll see how things look tomorrow, but I'm firmly thinking $75M OW and would probably bet on $80M. 

[Porthos]

On 10/12/2018 at 10:52 PM, Porthos said:

You know, something tells me I wasn't the only one to be surprised to hear that tickets have gone on sale at some theaters.

 

Why do I say that?

 

Oh.  No reason.

 

Tickets sold since (apparently)  yesterday (10/11):  71

 

No, that's not the number of tickets sold at one particular theater.  That's the number of tickets sold in the entire Greater Sacramento region!

 

Yeah.  Guessing word isn't out yet after all.

 

====

 

Only about a third of the theaters locally have any listings at all (Regal, Studio Movie Grill, and the local independent True IMAX theater).  Most of them are very tentative schedules to boot.  A couple tickets here.  Maybe three or four there.  Out of the heavy hitters, only the always-hopping SMG showed any real life with 12 tickets sold for one showing.

 

Fun fact though.  That total would have been dramatically less except for the fact that one showing at the Regal owned UA Olympus Pointe 12 up in Roseville inexplicably had 27 tickets sold for one showing.  It's a semi-popular theater, but it's not exactly in the A-list. 

 

I reckon a bunch of local HP fans got word of the tickets being sold and bought some group tickets.

 

Either that, or it's one of the weirder cases of clustering I've seen in a while.

 

Anywho, not going to make any sort of report, obviously.  But I think I will file away the information as a sort of compare and contrast when some chains start selling tickets early (ala Deadpool 2).  Might be interesting to see if there is any sort of pattern on pure word-of-mouth for pre-pre-ticket sales.

So I'm not sure how long tickets had been sold at this point.  Maybe more than a day and a half?  Two days?

 

Anyway, this is the soonest I had to an early FB2 report.  I believe I had some more comments later on in the thread, but I'll wait till later tonight or tomorrow to hunt for them.

 

I bring this up for KotM, obviously.  KotM is up at the Cinemark and Regal theaters in town, but not the Cinema West ones. Also not at the TrueIMAX theater or the local SMG.  So it's up at more theaters, I believe, but only for a third of a day or so.  Maybe a half a day.

 

So far KotM has sold 49 tickets.

 

Kinda interested to see what it'll be at the 36 hour mark or so, to do a true comparison with FB2.  Presuming a ticket announcement isn't made of course.

 

Thus I'll go ahead and make a thread comment tomorrow 'round this time.

 

@Mulder I believe will want to know this, as she was interested in how word was getting out in a similar pre pre-sale announcement.

[Cap]

 

 

 

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

We'll see how things look tomorrow, but I'm firmly thinking $75M OW and would probably bet on $80M. 

Porthos' comps are coming in right around 70M.  I think the O/U is 70M Pika, 80M AEG for this weekend.

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

So I'm not sure how long tickets had been sold at this point.  Maybe more than a day and a half?  Two days?

 

Anyway, this is the soonest I had to an early FB2 report.  I believe I had some more comments later on in the thread, but I'll wait till later tonight or tomorrow to hunt for them.

 

I bring this up for KotM, obviously.  KotM is up at the Cinemark and Regal theaters in town, but not the Cinema West ones. Also not at the TrueIMAX theater or the local SMG.  So it's up at more theaters, I believe, but only for a third of a day or so.  Maybe a half a day.

 

So far KotM has sold 49 tickets.

 

Kinda interested to see what it'll be at the 36 hour mark or so, to do a true comparison with FB2.  Presuming a ticket announcement isn't made of course.

 

Thus I'll go ahead and make a thread comment tomorrow 'round this time.

 

@Mulder I believe will want to know this, as she was interested in how word was getting out in a similar pre pre-sale announcement.

49 sounds like a lot to me. Final count of the day was 190+ sold so far on Pulse. To me this seems pretty strong but I'm a fangirl so this might be coloring my perception a bit. Thanks for the tag! As for when the tickets go on sale, I'm expecting Thursday or Friday personally. I think Legendary and WB are trying to not interfere too much with DP.

[Perfundle]

4 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

It means you’re either near capacity or you’re probably leaning frontloaded. 

Does it? I'm looking through the archives, and Dumbo, The Grinch and Hotel Transylvania all had similar or lower percentage increases, and they certainly weren't near capacity or frontloaded. I think there's simply a lot of variability.

[dakus]

3 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Porthos' comps are coming in right around 70M.  I think the O/U is 70M Pika, 80M AEG for this weekend.

80M AEG sounds too high. I can't see Endgame holding better then Infinity War while already showing signs of being relatively more frontloaded and having significantly more competition this weekend. I'd say O/U 75M for AEG personally

[Porthos]

I have just not had time to say anything, but I want to make a quick note that I added Venom and AM2 comps.  Partially because AM2 had A LOT of walkups the last couple of days, as did Venom to a smaller degree.

 

But they're also my other sub 12m Thr comps (with Venom being a pure 10m comp) so I thought it would be interesting to rope them in.  Especially to compare showtimes and ticket sales.

 

Speaking of showtimes, there was a major expansion tonight.  Still room to expand as most of the Regals, and ironically some of the Cinema Wests, have not expanded yet.  I expect their final slates to go up tomorrow.

 

That's another reason I brought in AM2 and Venom, so a seats available compare/contrast could be made with them (FB2 is skewed somewhat with the extra PLF showings from the limited engagements).

 

They may not be the best of comps, but they can't be THAT worse than FB2.

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

Does it? I'm looking through the archives, and Dumbo, The Grinch and Hotel Transylvania all had similar or lower percentage increases, and they certainly weren't near capacity or frontloaded. I think there's simply a lot of variability.

“Probably” and considering the fanboy nature of Pokémon, I’d lean that way over movies like dumbo or grinch. 

[Cap]

3 minutes ago, dakus said:

80M AEG sounds too high. I can't see Endgame holding better then Infinity War while already showing signs of being relatively more frontloaded and having significantly more competition this weekend. I'd say O/U 75M for AEG personally

Both TA and AIW dropped -46% in their 3rd week.  Off at 147M weekend that puts it at 79.33M.  So, I suppose you're right.  Should have rounded down.

Edited May 8, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Nova]

47 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I genuinely felt that it may do Deadpool numbers + China. Poor me.

Well now I don't feel so bad about my predictions 

[Porthos]

31 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Seems like the Tuesday increase for DP was a bit muted. Is that bad or normal?

It still outsold Solo locally on T-2.  (236 v 277)

 

...

 

Seriously.  WHY do I do this to myself?  

 

==

 

It is a little muted.  But it might just be running at a percentage of JW2 as well.  The idea that it might be headed for a 70m OW sounds logical.  

 

I will say it ain't exploding.  But that's also why I roped in the Venom and AM2 comp to show what they did 2 days from release.  Thinking the target number for Pika  is around 375 to 400 adj tickets sold tomorrow.   If it doesn't hit that, I might have to reassess or look at the pattern a bit more closely to see what is going on. 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Porthos