The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Jamiem]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BTW, Toy Story 4 finished at 156 showings locally on preview night.  At the same point in time, it had 89 showings scheduled.

 

Just so folks have an idea of the bet local theaters are placing on TLK.

Yeah seems like Disney and theatres are both betting big on TLK, here at my local in New Zealand it has 23 showing up for opening day compared to FFH which now has 15 (and opens in 5 days compared to TLK opening in 19 days). It’s pretty crazy really. Hoping both movies do well though, here there isn’t much competition just each other and TS4 (which opened today but had some fan screenings last week) for the most part.

[Geo1500]

44 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Yeah seems like Disney and theatres are both betting big on TLK, here at my local in New Zealand it has 23 showing up for opening day compared to FFH which now has 15 (and opens in 5 days compared to TLK opening in 19 days). It’s pretty crazy really. Hoping both movies do well though, here there isn’t much competition just each other and TS4 (which opened today but had some fan screenings last week) for the most part.

In all fairness TLK opens about 22 days thats a long way to go and people are probably buying first tickets to catch spidey then post that TLK in that order. I guess the problem in this summer has been poor scheduling allover the place. You have gigantic movies overlapping each other? what were they thinking when they went for these opening dates. Especially Disney is guilty of this why put so many BIG movies on top of each other as successful as disney has been this year they also displayed poor scheduling. I was recently looking at the 2020 opening dates and I find it hilarious that there are no movies at the magnitude of what has been released this year except two movies in the entire year and that is Fast and Furious 9 and Wonder woman 2. 

 

Where as this summer it got stuffed with all sorts of movies within a very tight 4-months period. Avengers Endgame, Pika, Aladdin, King of the monsters, Toy story 4, Spiderman: Far from home, The Lion King, X-men: DP, Hobbs&Shaw and the lesser heavyweights but still big enough to interrupt the market are the following John Wick 3, MIB5 and Pets 2. 

 

All these movies released within a very tight 4-months. You can check the schedule for 2020, 2021 or you can check the schedules for 2018,17 16 etc etc. You will never see such a stuffed 4 months summer. It's absolutely ridiculous. Compared to this summer the entire schedules of 2020 and 2021 you will find it pretty much empty. IMHO all these movies could have been spread across 2 years. I geninuely believe if some of the movies that flopped found themselves a better opening dates things could have been different and especially for Movies like Pika and King of the monsters + Pets 2

Edited June 27, 2019 by Geo1500

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

Especially Disney is guilty of this why put so many BIG movies on top of each other as successful as disney has been this year they also displayed poor scheduling

They're trying to supercharge the rollout for Disney+.  It's one of the few reasonable answers out there.  Otherwise they could have easily shifted production of a couple of their tentpoles this year to come out in 2020.

 

If they kneecap the competition in the process? Well they're probably good with leaving some gross on the table if they can funnel the hype into Disney+ while weakening the competition this year when it comes to films.

[TLK]

I counted almost 300 ticket blocks for Midsommar for the past 24 hours. That seems fairly decent for a movie like this.

[Neucentro]

Any Wednesday number for Annabelle 3?  $8.5m (including previews) would not be too shabby.

[danhtruong5]

FSS

1. TS4

2. EG 5318

3. Yesterday 5200

[Fanboy]

43 minutes ago, TLK said:

I counted almost 300 ticket blocks for Midsommar for the past 24 hours. That seems fairly decent for a movie like this.

Considering Annabelle sold 236 tickets on Fandango last Wednesday, that's definitely a good sign. 

[Jamiem]

1 hour ago, Geo1500 said:

In all fairness TLK opens about 22 days thats a long way to go and people are probably buying first tickets to catch spidey then post that TLK in that order. I guess the problem in this summer has been poor scheduling allover the place. You have gigantic movies overlapping each other? what were they thinking when they went for these opening dates. Especially Disney is guilty of this why put so many BIG movies on top of each other as successful as disney has been this year they also displayed poor scheduling. I was recently looking at the 2020 opening dates and I find it hilarious that there are no movies at the magnitude of what has been released this year except two movies in the entire year and that is Fast and Furious 9 and Wonder woman 2.

First of all I agree Disney has played way too many big movies this summer (Avengers really kicked off the summer season) they could of had Aladdin come out later in the year for instance. I agree with Porthos that they are probably getting everything out there for Disney+

 

I however think you are downplaying summer next year a bit on top of Fast 9 and WW84 we also have an untitled Marvel Film, Minions 2 (as long as it plays better than Pets 2 this should do decent though probably not make a billion like the first), Tenet (Nolan’s next film), Soul (Pete Doctors next film) and that’s without possible breakouts like Jungle Cruise, Morbius plus sequels and spinoffs to old IP like Scoob, Spongebob, Ghostbusters and Top Gun. Now obviously some of these will underperform, if not outright bomb, but there is enough there that it should be decent just not as big as this year probably (plus the other studios not named Disney should get some of the spoils particularly WB should be looking for a strong performance next year).

Edited June 27, 2019 by Jamiem

[Sunny Max]

BUY TIME	      TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-06-27 03:00:00	42	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	39	Toy Story 4
2019-06-27 03:00:00	29	Annabelle Comes Home
2019-06-27 03:00:00	23	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	12	Yesterday (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	11	Spider-Man Far From Home The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	11	The Lion King (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	11	Spider-Man Far From Home 3D (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	7	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	4	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	4	Annabelle Comes Home The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-27 03:00:00	4	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-27 03:00:00	2	Anna (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	2	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-06-27 03:00:00	2	Midsommar
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Late Night (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	The Lion King 3D (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Dark Phoenix
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Toy Story 4 The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Shadaa
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Rocketman
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	The Sandlot (1993)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	The Dead Dont Die
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Childs Play (2019)

[Menor the Destroyer]

FFH hit my target for yesterday thanks to the late explosion, still on pace for 120k

[john2000]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

FFH hit my target for yesterday thanks to the late explosion, still on pace for 120k

yeah and today, it will have another boost from the reviews

[Geo1500]

4 hours ago, Jamiem said:

First of all I agree Disney has played way too many big movies this summer (Avengers really kicked off the summer season) they could of had Aladdin come out later in the year for instance. I agree with Porthos that they are probably getting everything out there for Disney+

 

I however think you are downplaying summer next year a bit on top of Fast 9 and WW84 we also have an untitled Marvel Film, Minions 2 (as long as it plays better than Pets 2 this should do decent though probably not make a billion like the first), Tenet (Nolan’s next film), Soul (Pete Doctors next film) and that’s without possible breakouts like Jungle Cruise, Morbius plus sequels and spinoffs to old IP like Scoob, Spongebob, Ghostbusters and Top Gun. Now obviously some of these will underperform, if not outright bomb, but there is enough there that it should be decent just not as big as this year probably (plus the other studios not named Disney should get some of the spoils particularly WB should be looking for a strong performance next year).

 

You raise some decent points but as far as the 2020 schedule goes I don't think it's necessarily true. Example you pointed out movies like Tenet and we know nothing about it yet which means it dosen't have brand power just budget there is not much data nor dose it have fanbase.

 

The same thing applies to Soul. Then we have movies like Ghostbusters really bro? Thats basically a movie that already flopped previously. Top Gun? a movie that came out 33 years ago and in todays market such movies don't survive. Scoob can probably do 400-500M while spongebob is not worth mentioning in this category while Of all these movies you have mentioned the only heavyweights are Minions and Scoob who have brand power and could be regarded as heavyweights and chellenge for big money.

 

The rest are not even average but below it and they offer little to no competition for movies like Fast 9 and Wonder Woman except Minioins and Scoob. Where as in 2019 we have movies with established brand power stuffed into 4-months opening period. Pika could have made a billion imho if they had a different opening spot like in 2020.

 

Pika is a big brand and the sames goes to zilla that have existed for like more then 50 years. Pets 2, MIB5, Toy story 4, The Lion king, Spiderman, Aladdin, Avengers endgame, X-men: Dark P, and Hobbs and Shaw most of these have brand power of nearly 20-years upto 50-years.

 

Some were comic book characters like avengers 50+ years brand power, Hobbs and shaw 18-19 years, Aladdin 27 years, Spiderman 50+ years, Pika 22+ years, The lion king 25 years, X-men Dark P 50+ years, Zilla 50+ years, MIB5 25+ years. Brand power and recognition is everything at the box office and humans are generally drawn to familiarity. Example one of the reasons Jumanij did alot better then most expected in the box office is because it was solely due to Brand power.

 

All the movies released in this 4 month period have collectively alone more brand power combined then everything coming out in the next 2 years combined. The only great stand out brand power movies in 2020 are only Fast 9, WW2 and Minions with Scoob being a great outsider and thats not considering the rest of the year. 

 

Edit: I forgot about Mulan. I think it's gonna do a billy

Edited June 27, 2019 by Geo1500

[Sunny Max]

BUY TIME	      TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-06-27 03:00:00	42	Spider-Man Far From Home (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	39	Toy Story 4
2019-06-27 03:00:00	29	Annabelle Comes Home
2019-06-27 03:00:00	23	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	12	Yesterday (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	11	Spider-Man Far From Home The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	11	The Lion King (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	11	Spider-Man Far From Home 3D (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	7	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	4	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	4	Annabelle Comes Home The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-27 03:00:00	4	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-27 03:00:00	2	Anna (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	2	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2019-06-27 03:00:00	2	Midsommar
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Late Night (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	The Lion King 3D (2019)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Dark Phoenix
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Toy Story 4 The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Shadaa
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Rocketman
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	The Sandlot (1993)
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	The Dead Dont Die
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
2019-06-27 03:00:00	1	Childs Play (2019)

[Fanboy]

2020 does seem very weak at this point. Wonder Woman is the only film I'm confident will make $300M. 

[Jamiem]

25 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

You raise some decent points but as far as the 2020 schedule goes I don't think it's necessarily true. Example you pointed out movies like Tenet and we know nothing about it yet which means it dosen't have brand power just budget there is not much data nor dose it have fanbase.

 

The same thing applies to Soul. Then we have movies like Ghostbusters really bro? Thats basically a movie that already flopped previously. Top Gun? a movie that came out 33 years ago and in todays market such movies don't survive. Scoob can probably do 400-500M while spongebob is not worth mentioning in this category while Of all these movies you have mentioned the only heavyweights are Minions and Scoob who have brand power and could be regarded as heavyweights and chellenge for big money.

 

The rest are not even average but below it and they offer little to no competition for movies like Fast 9 and Wonder Woman except Minioins and Scoob. Where as in 2019 we have movies with established brand power stuffed into 4-months opening period. Pika could have made a billion imho if they had a different opening spot like in 2020.

 

Pika is a big brand and the sames goes to zilla that have existed for like more then 50 years. Pets 2, MIB5, Toy story 4, The Lion king, Spiderman, Aladdin, Avengers endgame, X-men: Dark P, and Hobbs and Shaw most of these have brand power of nearly 20-years upto 50-years.

 

Some were comic book characters like avengers 50+ years brand power, Hobbs and shaw 18-19 years, Aladdin 27 years, Spiderman 50+ years, Pika 22+ years, The lion king 25 years, X-men Dark P 50+ years, Zilla 50+ years, MIB5 25+ years. Brand power and recognition is everything at the box office and humans are generally drawn to familiarity. Example one of the reasons Jumanij did alot better then most expected in the box office is because it was solely due to Brand power.

 

All the movies released in this 4 month period have collectively alone more brand power combined then everything coming out in the next 2 years combined. The only great stand out brand power movies in 2020 are only Fast 9, WW2 and Minions with Scoob being a great outsider and thats not considering the rest of the year

We will see but I think Nolan and Pixar are big enough brands to do at least well for their respective films. 

 

Also so if we are talking about the full 2020 slate Mulan should be big (really depends on if it takes off in China), also I hope Godzilla vs Kong is a hit (you already mentioned the legacy of this franchise) but after KoTM going to need to be a real crowd pleaser for that to happen imo. There is also Bond 25 that could be big depending on how they market it. Sure none of these are likely to be as big as Endgame or TLK but at least some will do solid business.

 

I think 2020 will be down a fair amount from 2019 but there is still big films coming next year, just not as big as the ones that came/are coming this year.

 

 

[Eric Lasagna]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Love, Simon

863

1,256

2,907

I Feel Pretty

871

1,610

4,423

Life Of The Party

587

1,310

3,010

Book Club

836

1,599

3,283

Oceans 8

3,009

4,372

11,114

A Simple Favor

564

2,126

4,410

10,381

Upside

394

1,431

3,669

8,602

Little

673

1,098

2,450

5,760

The Hustle

485

1,012

2,316

3,024

Rocketman

1,158

3,088

6,634

11,522

Yesterday

791

1,420

3,751

 

 

Yesterday

85% of A Simple Favor (13.6M)

85% of I Feel Pretty (13.6M)

34% of Ocean's 8 (14M)

56% of Rocketman (14.5M)

129% of Love, Simon (15.2M)

114% of Book Club (15.5M)

102% of The Upside (20.8M)

162% of The Hustle (21.1M)

125% of Life of the Party (22.3M)

153% of Little (23.6M)

 

This was a great day for Yesterday. I don't think this will reach 20M, but these are still solid numbers and it should hold steady the next few weeks in spite of Spidey and Lion King.

[RamblinRed]

4 hours ago, Neucentro said:

Any Wednesday number for Annabelle 3?  $8.5m (including previews) would not be too shabby.

Charlie in the Thursday numbers thread posted 7.1 including previews.

 

He also mentioned TS4 at 11.9 and Aladdin at 1.73 and said nothing else was even worth posting.

 

[fabiopazzo2]

13 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

2020 does seem very weak at this point. Wonder Woman is the only film I'm confident will make $300M. 

Bird of prey , eternal, , pixar film, mulan(maybe)

[Eric Lasagna]

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Spider-Man FFH	3,982	5,105	7,745
	8 days	7 days	6 days
The Lion King	11,161	3,366	2,581
	25 days	24 days	23 days

 

 

Far From Home

Day 15-6

46% of Captain Marvel (71.2M)

Day 22-6

46% of Captain Marvel (71.2M)

 

I mentioned this before, but this is close to the 3-Day of Transformers. That's...interesting.

 

Lion King

First three days of presales

97% of Fallen Kingdom (143.5M)

98% of Captain Marvel (150.1M)

301% of Toy Story 4 (364.2M)

820% of Aladdin (750.8M 3-Day, 958.4M 4-Day) (Endgame deflation occurred at this time)

435% of Incredibles 2 (795.7M)

 

Day 25-23

78% of Infinity War (200M)

325% of Captain Marvel (498.7M)

820% of Aladdin (750.8M 3-Day, 958.4M 4-Day) (Endgame deflation occurred at this time)

978% of Incredibles 2 (1.8B)

 

This is still following Fallen Kingdom's first few days very closely, which is...interesting. Not much else to report though.

[PKMLover]

Update number hourly?