The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

Tickets are also on sale for Dark Waters at a number of theaters around here too so I imagine it's getting a theater count similar to what Roman J. Israel, Esq. did (1,669) on Thanksgiving weekend two years ago.

[MagnarTheGreat]

One other thing I keep in mind for the first weekend for SW:TROS is that SW Thursday Previews in the past haven't multiplied out as high as other franchises do as the SW First Thursdays take up a larger share of the first weekend comparatively.

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi = $45M Thursday Preview * 4.89 = $220M First Weekend

The Lion King = $23M Thursday Preview * 8.34 = $192M First Weekend

Avengers: Infinity War = $39M Thursday Preview * 6.61 = $258M First Weekend

Avengers: Endgame = $60M Thursday Preview * 5.95 = $357M First Weekend

 

I wonder if a finale rush effect will decrease the multiplier or keep it relatively the same as TLJ instead of increasing again like TLJ's did from TFA's 4.35.

Edited November 7, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

One other thing I keep in mind for the first weekend for SW:TROS is that SW Thursday Previews in the past haven't multiplied out as high as other franchises do as the SW First Thursdays take up a larger share of the first weekend comparatively.

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi = $45M Thursday Preview * 4.89 = $220M First Weekend

The Lion King = $23M Thursday Preview * 8.35 = $191M First Weekend

Avengers: Infinity War = $39M Thursday Preview * 6.61 = $258M First Weekend

Avengers: Endgame = $60M Thursday Preview * 5.95 = $357M First Weekend

 

I wonder if a finale rush effect will decrease the multiplier or keep it relatively the same as TLJ instead of increasing again like TLJ's did from TFA's 4.35.

RO did 5.35 as a spin-off a few years back so I feel that's easily the cap anyway.

Not a lot of clue on how SW9 will behave in this regard and you bring up a good point.

btw guessing 4.75 * 42.5 = 202 ow

Edited November 7, 2019 by a2k

[filmlover]

Playing with Fire is getting poor reviews, to the surprise of no one.

 

Also on a future note the embargo has ended for The Good Liar and reviews aren't looking good for it either. Between that and a quiet marketing campaign another low-grosser is incoming for WB.

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

We'll see 

It's time to see what it can do, test the limits and breakthrough....

[Porthos]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

That's. Really. Well. Ranged.

Honestly not quite sure what you're saying there.    

 

There is a decent range of possibilities, sure.  Some movies over-perform locally and some under-perform.  But I reckon if I cast a wide enough net I should be able to get a decent average out of it.  I personally think some comps in that list are better than others, but I'm still including the less likely ones if only for smoothing purposes.

[keysersoze123]

Unfortunately no full AMC data for Frozen but I got data for 35 shows in NYC. Its not great. Well below TLK or Joker. Beyond these I see 2 3D shows listed as sellouts at 19th Street but I guess that is glitch as the 2d shows have sold very little. Similarly 6PM Imax at Lincoln Square is missing. Either that is a sellout(I did not see it listed) or it could be listed at a later date. Of course there is a possibility of group booking entire screen but I dont know Plexes will do that for Prime time PLF shows on Previews.

 

Spoiler

AMC New York

Empire(6 shows) - 431/1810
Lincoln Sq(3 shows) - 124/1164
34th Street(5 shows)  - 124/1235
19th Street(2 shows)  - 31/326
84th Street(5 shows) - 84/883
Kips Bay(2 shows) - 95/348
Village 7(4 shows) - 64/426
Orpheum 7(2 shows) - 30/716
Newport Center 11(2 shows) - 65/212
Magic Johnson Harlem 9(4 shows) - 19/770
Overall(35 shows) - 1067/7890

 

[cdsacken]

Amc frozen is a lock.

[keysersoze123]

Doctor Sleep(Mid day Thursday Update)

AMC Prev - 15375/143523(778 shows) $224076 
Cin Prev - 7416/150635(891 shows) $86069

 

Good news is it increased a lot from yesterday(65%+ in AMC and almost double at Cin). Bad news is this number is still very low. Zombieland sold 43K at AMC and 27K at Cin. So even if Doctor Sleep increases another 50% from here(which is more than tickets sold since yesterday) before day's end it will end up half of Zombieland. I am thinking $1-1.25m for thursday numbers plus whatever early screenings did. I dont have any numbers for that but quick anecdotal check showed it sold well. Overall Previews probably around $2m.

 

May be this will be insanely backloaded. So I looked at Day 1 PS.

 

Doctor Sleep Day 1 PS

AMC OD -  12648/358673(1914 shows) $185612
Cin OD - 7356/300081(1742 shows) $78406

 

That is not great either. I am thinking it will start national PS at around 1m at this rate. So does not look like it will hit double digit OD barring crazy walkins.

 

I am feeling sub 25m OW at this point. But let us see how things go.

[el sid]

Finally it works again .
But I counted 4 hours too late today so normally the numbers of sold tickets would be slightly worse.

And it's the same here: Doctor Sleep is pretty exactly on par with Scary Stories. It had 1.018 for Thursday and 802 sold tickets for Friday. Scary Sories had 1.096/754 (but earlier in the day). So from presales alone that would mean around 20-22M.

Midway had today (also 4 hours too late) 398/497 sold tickets. Angel has Fallen had on Thursday 654/580. So not too bad but I guess it won't have the same walk ups. But with good walk ups it could reach ca. 15M OW I think.

Edited November 7, 2019 by el sid

[keysersoze123]

Spoiler

Midway

AMC  - 8564/75386 124783.17 
Cin  - 6111/95651(737 shows) $72360

 

Last Christmas

AMC - 5897/63391(497 shows) 77462.90
Cin - 4147/72163(582 shows) $46133

 

Playing with Fire

AMC - 5249/90909 (758 shows) $63738
Cin - 3095/93952 $33149 (773 shows)

 

If anyone is wondering how other openers are doing, not good at all. I dont see any of them hitting even 1m previews. Order is Midway>last christmas> Playing with fire for previews but last christmas could squeak over Midway for OW.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If anyone is wondering how other openers are doing, not good at all. 

Got to wonder if the one-two punch of TROS and Frozen 2 is just sucking a lot the dollars out of the movie landscape right now.  Wouldn't be the first time this happened as both TFA and TLJ just sucked the landscape dry in the post-Thanksgiving period in their respective years and having a mega-tsunami like Frozen 2 brewing is just adding to the problem on the other end of the Thanksgiving window.

 

Not saying all movies in November are gonna underperform.  But I am saying that lots of pre-sales for both of these movies sure ain't helping matters.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Porthos

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1529

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1590

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7512	56	22870	32.85%	9	182

 

99% of The Lion King's final total

 

(Thanks for buying half of these tickets last night, @Porthos 😉)

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1540

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1594

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7566	54	22870	33.08%	9	182

 

Only 21 tickets behind The Lion King's final total

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

152

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

161

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
782	151	9539	8.20%	9	55

 

Adjusted Lion King comp: 9.87M

 

Barely decreased from yesterday, so the comp turned out better than I thought it would. Nowhere to go but up from here

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

177

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

185

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
877	95	9539	9.19%	9	55

 

I didn't do a count for TLK on the equivalent day, so no comp.

[Porthos]

32 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1540

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1594

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7566	54	22870	33.08%	9	182

 

Only 21 tickets behind The Lion King's final total

Sounds about right.

 

From Sacto last night:

 

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-43 days and counting

 

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
TLK	99.96		10977		10973		22.99m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

Only four tickets behind locally as of last night's check.  Absolutely guaranteed to pass it by tonight's check.

[Legion Again]

47 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Got to wonder if the one-two punch of TROS and Frozen 2 is just sucking a lot the dollars out of the movie landscape right now. Wouldn't be the first time this happened as both TFA and TLJ just sucked the landscape dry in the post-Thanksgiving period in their respective years and having a mega-tsunami like Frozen 2 brewing is just adding to the problem on the other end of the Thanksgiving window.

 

Not saying all movies in November are gonna underperform. But I am saying that lots of pre-sales for both of these movies sure ain't helping matters.

I think this is happening to some degree. TROS+F2 might be pretty close in size to the CM+Endgame money sink from the first half of the year.

[Old Spice]

Doctor Sleep finally woke up in Salt Lake today and now has a Thursday night presale roughly equal the combined count for Last Christmas and Midway. Midway is a very distant third behind the first two. I didn't even bother looking at PWF.

 

Based on what I'm seeing here, a $23-25 OW for Sleep definitely seems doable.

Edited November 7, 2019 by A Star is Orm
typo

[Rorschach]

Doctor Sleep Thursday Night Previews ~ 1 hour until first showing: Rave Cinemas Davenport 53rd + IMAX

 

2D

6:00 - 22/238

9:35 - 2/238

 

IMAX

7:00 - 0/387

10:30 - 0/387

 

Total: 24/1,250 (1.92% of all seats sold)

 

Midway ~ 2 hours until first showing

 

7:00 - 27/135

10:20 - 0/135

 

Total: 27/270 (10% of all seats sold)

 

I don't usually keep track of comparisons or anything like that but just from a glance, those Doctor Sleep numbers do not seem very good.

Edited November 7, 2019 by Rorschach

[Biggestgeekever]

Doctor Sleep is similarly looking pretty dead here in Seattle, and I would thought this would be a place for it would do well. Starting to think it'll struggle to hit $20M for the weekend.

[JB33]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

  Reveal hidden contents

Midway

AMC  - 8564/75386 124783.17 
Cin  - 6111/95651(737 shows) $72360

 

Last Christmas

AMC - 5897/63391(497 shows) 77462.90
Cin - 4147/72163(582 shows) $46133

 

Playing with Fire

AMC - 5249/90909 (758 shows) $63738
Cin - 3095/93952 $33149 (773 shows)

 

If anyone is wondering how other openers are doing, not good at all. I dont see any of them hitting even 1m previews. Order is Midway>last christmas> Playing with fire for previews but last christmas could squeak over Midway for OW.

Yeesh. I thought Last Christmas would play way better than that.