The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

My dad wants to see Bad Boys. Never seen the first two, and doesn't typically like "dumb action comedies" (Rush Hour, Lethal Weapon, John Wick).

 

Legit think this could surprise. Wouldn't be surprised with a 3-day close to 1917's opening. 

[cdsacken]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Is it known what RDJ was paid for Dolittle? Cause I feel like a potential club could've been made there for either opening weekend or total depending on the amount. 

$20 million, smart man to not go for a bigger cut of WW gross. Good chance this thing does something horrible like 150 ww

[dudalb]

34 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

$20 million, smart man to not go for a bigger cut of WW gross. Good chance this thing does something horrible like 150 ww

Not that he needed it, his net worth is 300 Million. Tony Stark made  him a very rich man.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

$20 million, smart man to not go for a bigger cut of WW gross. Good chance this thing does something horrible like 150 ww

Are you sure about that. I remember reading an article about RDJ getting first gross % on this one. I think @TalismanRing posted something on this. Either way it should not matter. 

 

Edit: link 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by keysersoze123

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Are you sure about that. I remember reading an article about RDJ getting first gross % on this one. I think @TalismanRing posted something on this. Either way it should not matter. 

 

Edit: link 

 

Sure he got 20 million upfront. No idea about cut, in just glad he didn't waive his fee like Hanks did for Forrest Gump for a massive cut

 

Technically that's a big pay cut I guess too

Edited January 16, 2020 by cdsacken

[JB33]

8 hours ago, DAJK said:

Bad Boys and Dolittle are both selling awful here. But Victoria is in the middle of a snowstorm (which never happens here... it paralyzes the city) so I can understand why people are reluctant to buy tickets ahead of time when the weather over the next few days is supposed to be very unpredictable. 

 

Unfortunately, I could see this week here being a complete wash. 

Yep. Canada in general might bring the box office down a decent chunk. The whole country is experiencing various degrees of this arctic front.

[The Wild Eric]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

Yep. Canada in general might bring the box office down a decent chunk. The whole country is experiencing various degrees of this arctic front.

So what you're saying is...Blame Canada?

[filmlover]

I could see Bad Boys 3 opening to similar numbers as Ride Along did six years ago ($48M over the 4-day).

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, Eric Dolittle said:

So what you're saying is...Blame Canada?

For this weekend, sure. We'll take this one in the teeth.

[keysersoze123]

Canada is just like 6% of OW BO. So impact would be minimal anyway and unless you have huge urban centers like Toronto snowed in overall impact would be insignificant. 

 

Any OD PS for both the new movies. 

 

Bad Boys

MTC1  OD - overall 2052 shows 36374/423157 557482.68 
MTC2  OD - overall 2640 shows 33920/426187 386387.00 

MTC1 Prev - overall 1435 shows 42333/283155 634756.15

 

Very good. Its PS is well ahead of Jumanji. Definitely think its opening > 50m over 4 day weekend. its previews PS has been on a tear as well with MTC1 increasing 50% over the day.

 

Dolittle

MTC1  OD - overall 1800 shows 8783/308837 121633.60 
MTC2  OD - overall 2313 shows 13800/339877 134132.00 

MTC1 Prev -  overall 1006 shows 6439/160916 93422.72

 

Good news is MTC2 OD which is well ahead of MTC1. But previews PS barely increased over the day and its looking at sub 1m at this point. So I can see it hit just mid teens 3 day and high teens 4 day at this rate. 

[JB33]

Just now, filmlover said:

I could see Bad Boys 3 opening to similar numbers as Ride Along did six years ago ($48M over the 4-day).

All I know is I want to see some films start challenging for around $45M plus. The wide expansion for American Sniper is a total outlier with its $89.27M wide opening. Otherwise, there is a lump of films stuck at the $40M-$42M area and nothing seems to be able to clamour over that.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Canada is just like 6% of OW BO. So impact would be minimal anyway and unless you have huge urban centers like Toronto snowed in overall impact would be insignificant. 

 

Any OD PS for both the new movies. 

 

Bad Boys

MTC1  OD - overall 2052 shows 36374/423157 557482.68 
MTC2  OD - overall 2640 shows 33920/426187 386387.00 

MTC1 Prev - overall 1435 shows 42333/283155 634756.15

 

Very good. Its PS is well ahead of Jumanji. Definitely think its opening > 50m over 4 day weekend. its previews PS has been on a tear as well with MTC1 increasing 50% over the day.

 

Dolittle

MTC1  OD - overall 1800 shows 8783/308837 121633.60 
MTC2  OD - overall 2313 shows 13800/339877 134132.00 

MTC1 Prev -  overall 1006 shows 6439/160916 93422.72

 

Good news is MTC2 OD which is well ahead of MTC1. But previews PS barely increased over the day and its looking at sub 1m at this point. So I can see it hit just mid teens 3 day and high teens 4 day at this rate. 

That is excellent for Bad Boys previews, and it should be a very walkup friendly movie as well. If it could get to 4m previews it could be looking at 45-50 even for the 3-day.

[The Wild Eric]

Bad Boys for Life Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	82	2,279	15,767	14.45%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 516

Total Seats Sold Today: 877

 

Comp

1.665x of Once Upon 1 day before release (9.65M)

0.954x of It: Chapter Two (10.02M)

0.663x of Joker (8.81M)

6.348x of Gemini Man (10.16M)

10.174x of 21 Bridges (7.12M)

0.156x of Star Wars 9 (6.22M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.357x of The Lion King (8.22M)

2.374x of Hobbs & Shaw (13.77M)

 

What else is there to say? Overperforming, but still great stuff. Keyser saying 50M+ for the 4-Day is possible is also great

[The Wild Eric]

Dolittle Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	38	107	6,509	1.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 27

 

Comp

0.856x of Dora 1 day before release (1.07M)

1.390x of Abominable (903K)

0.493x of Addams Family (616K)

0.345x of Maleficent (794K)

1.845x of Playing with Fire (830K)

0.251x of Jumanji (1.18M)

[Cooper Legion]

32x the tickets today for BB3, lmao. I mean, regional skew, but still  

[lorddemaxus]

Seems like Sonic tix have started selling. No official announcement yet tho.

[Tinalera]

I know in ontario here we are getting snowfall watches/warnings today though weekend. I definitely see theatres taking a hit due to weather

[Tinalera]

Okay so i dont know if any other canadian trackers noting this. Since Cine announcement taking over Cineplex, im no longer getting seat availability for reg screens like i did before. I can get imax, vip, avx ect, but reg screens no longer have ability to check seats sold. Anyone else finding this?

 

It means tracking id be doing is only aforementioned screen types

[keysersoze123]

Quick morning update as I did not do end of day update(I crashed early as I am jetlagged). 

 

Dolittle

MTC1 Prev - overall 1035 shows 7389/164426 107448.58
MTC2 Prev - overall 1141 shows 4936/148395 55686.00 

 

Very anemic growth since last afternoon. At this point Its looking at saturday grosses like family flick but with horrible reviews I am not feeling big increase. it needs ginormous walk ups to even hit 1m previews at this point. 

 

Bad Boys
MTC1 Prev - overall 1544 shows 50321/303549 748975.27 
MTC2 prev - overall 1634 shows 31349/251933 377660.00 

 

MTC1 is showing great growth. I am thinking it can hit 90K before end of the day and that would be 6m previews !!! As @Menor said it can hit 50m by end of sunday. 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by keysersoze123

[The Wild Eric]

https://deadline.com/2020/01/birds-of-prey-opening-weekend-box-office-projection-1202832572/

 

Quote

Warner Bros. DC movie Bird of Prey hit tracking this morning with a range of $49M-$55M, the average being $52M when it opens on Feb. 7, that weekend’s only wide release. All exhibitors look to Birds of Prey as it’s arguably the only franchise film for the month of February.

 

The film is really hot right now with the under 25 demo, with young males, followed by young females making it their first choice. Unaided awareness, those who cite the movie without being prodded in tracking’s survey, is great with young females.

 

Anyone griping that the movie is not at the level of Suicide Squad‘s opening ($133.6M) has to remember that it’s a spinoff. It’s also early in the campaign and when you’re trying to excite the younger under 25 demo, studios will typically go after them in the days leading up to opening. Young females per those who study demos make decisions to go to the movies at the last minute, and in packs versus older females who plan their trips to the cinema well in advance.