The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Borobudur]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Friday PS 27416, 53% of JC at the same point which was 52009 (last night it was a bit under half), and 86% of TSS at the same point. Based on yesterday walkups should be better than both. Guessing Friday can hit 7.5 million. 

 

Sat PS is 13744 which is nearly 5% higher than Friday at the same point. I am impressed. This is looking at a solid Sat bump imo. Guessing 8.5 million Sat. 

As we exiting summer, I guess weekend bump will be stronger than usual. 

[poweranimals]

15 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Industry tracking is based on polling people. We in this thread use pre-sales.

Has there even been any industry tracking yet? I'm looking at Box Office Pro and they only go up to the end of the month.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Jacksonville weekend sales by day with comps. Don't Breathe 2 looks to be around $11m and Free Guy around 22m-23m.   Respect is really hard to comp - I think the Sunday premiere took a big chunk of the preview crowd and depressed the sales here.   If I add those premiere sales to Thursday, the comp looks a lot more accurate with 8.68m

 

	Th	Fr	Sat	Sun	Total	Comp Prediction
Don't Breathe 2	136	224	86	30	476
The Forever Purge	127	163	37	7	334	$12,119,562
Escape Room 2	187	194	65	19	465	$9,962,173
Respect	51	314	201	89	655
Roadrunner	100	119	74	54	347	$23,922,966
Free Guy	288	425	166	153	1,032
Jungle Cruise	404	758	387	119	1,668	$24,764,630
Snake Eyes	217	237	184	91	729	$22,406,588
Fast & Furious 9	1,155	2,017	941	440	4,553	$19,728,844

[Eric Quinn]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-shang-chi-and-the-legend-of-the-ten-rings/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 8/13/21)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range	Domestic Total Forecast Range	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
8/20/2021	The Night House	$1,000,000 – $6,000,000	$2,500,000 – $15,000,000	2,000	Searchlight Pictures
8/20/2021	Paw Patrol	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000	$12,000,000 – $32,000,000	2,700	Paramount Pictures
8/20/2021	The Protégé	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	$8,000,000 – $25,000,000	2,500	Lionsgate
8/20/2021	Reminiscence	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$20,000,000 – $40,000,000	3,300	Warner Bros. Pictures
8/27/2021	Candyman	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$24,000,000 – $35,000,000	3,400	Universal Pictures
8/27/2021	Together				Bleecker Street
9/3/2021	Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings	$35,000,000 – $55,000,000	$100,000,000 – $165,000,000		Disney / Marvel Studios
9/10/2021	The Card Counter				Focus Features
9/10/2021	Malignant	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	$25,000,000 – $45,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
9/10/2021	Queenpins	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	$6,000,000 – $25,000,000		STXfilms

[Maggie]

Calling it now: Paw Patrol wins next weekend

[WrathOfHan]

Those are some pretty low TCs for the next couple weeks. Are a significant number of theaters shuttering?

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Those are some pretty low TCs for the next couple weeks. Are a significant number of theaters shuttering?

Nope

[Krissykins]

Loving that Candyman theatre count. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Yeah, most of those theater counts are lower than usual because they're lower profile releases, with some of them getting dual releases.

 

The usual 4K+ theater counts are usually seen with major blockbuster releases. Shang-Chi, being an MCU movie, will most likely have that count.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Early afternoon update, Free Guy is at 49292 tickets sold. No JC comp but it has overtaken TSS Friday at the same point (after being more than 4k tickets behind in the morning). If it stretches the lead over TSS by the time I take my evening run then I would be inclined to say 8 million Friday, though TSS did have a fairly good walkup pace so I won't predict that just yet. 

[EmpireCity]

2 hours ago, Free Eric said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-marvel-studios-shang-chi-and-the-legend-of-the-ten-rings/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2021 Calendar
(as of 8/13/21)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast Range	Domestic Total Forecast Range	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
8/20/2021	The Night House	$1,000,000 – $6,000,000	$2,500,000 – $15,000,000	2,000	Searchlight Pictures
8/20/2021	Paw Patrol	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000	$12,000,000 – $32,000,000	2,700	Paramount Pictures
8/20/2021	The Protégé	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	$8,000,000 – $25,000,000	2,500	Lionsgate
8/20/2021	Reminiscence	$7,000,000 – $12,000,000	$20,000,000 – $40,000,000	3,300	Warner Bros. Pictures
8/27/2021	Candyman	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000	$24,000,000 – $35,000,000	3,400	Universal Pictures
8/27/2021	Together				Bleecker Street
9/3/2021	Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings	$35,000,000 – $55,000,000	$100,000,000 – $165,000,000		Disney / Marvel Studios
9/10/2021	The Card Counter				Focus Features
9/10/2021	Malignant	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	$25,000,000 – $45,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
9/10/2021	Queenpins	$3,000,000 – $8,000,000	$6,000,000 – $25,000,000		STXfilms

 

I'll eat my hat if Candyman doesn't go above $14m.

 

Queenpins isn't even going to theaters (other than a very small contractual run), it was sold to Paramount+.  

[BadOlCatSylvester]

36 minutes ago, Menor said:

Early afternoon update, Free Guy is at 49292 tickets sold. No JC comp but it has overtaken TSS Friday at the same point (after being more than 4k tickets behind in the morning). If it stretches the lead over TSS by the time I take my evening run then I would be inclined to say 8 million Friday, though TSS did have a fairly good walkup pace so I won't predict that just yet. 

That would mean a $10.2M full Friday. Taking the Saturday bump you proposed from a previous update, we get a two day total of $19.8M. I wonder how it'll fare on Sunday. How are Sunday drops in this day and age?

[druv10]

44 minutes ago, Menor said:

Early afternoon update, Free Guy is at 49292 tickets sold. No JC comp but it has overtaken TSS Friday at the same point (after being more than 4k tickets behind in the morning). If it stretches the lead over TSS by the time I take my evening run then I would be inclined to say 8 million Friday, though TSS did have a fairly good walkup pace so I won't predict that just yet. 

Freaking fantastic!!! High 20s and maybe even low 30s is possible. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

That would mean a $10.2M full Friday. Taking the Saturday bump you proposed from a previous update, we get a two day total of $19.8M. I wonder how it'll fare on Sunday. How are Sunday drops in this day and age?

I would guess -25% to -30%. So around a 27 million OW if it gets 8 today. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Just now, Menor said:

I would guess -25% to -30%. So around a 27 million OW if it gets 8 today. 

Sounds about right, and in line with what JAT has been saying on Twitter.

[AdrianL]

How bizarre. Free Guy totally looks like something that would open in high teens maximum in regular times. I guess it helps that the movie is pretty good though. If this opens higher than TSS then that'll look great for theatrical windows, so yay. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by AdrianL

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 minute ago, AdrianL said:

How bizarre. Free Guy totally looks like something that would open in high teens maximum in regular times. I guess it helps that the movie is pretty good though. If this opens higher than TSS then that'll look great for theatrical windows, so yay. 

And on half the budget (I'm going with $100M for simplicity) too.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

Early afternoon update, Free Guy is at 49292 tickets sold. No JC comp but it has overtaken TSS Friday at the same point (after being more than 4k tickets behind in the morning). If it stretches the lead over TSS by the time I take my evening run then I would be inclined to say 8 million Friday, though TSS did have a fairly good walkup pace so I won't predict that just yet. 

SS average ticket price was way higher as Imax/PLF dominated overall sales, so its going to be tough for FG to hit those numbers. But it wont be that far off. 

 

MTC1 - 81316/646807 1088213.14 3672 shows

 

its still 80% behind in $ value with about 60% of tickets sold for post 6PM shows. So tough to hit SS for sure at MTC1. 

 

Edit: My math is off. What I meant is it needs to do another 80% more to hit SS OD at MTC1. 

Edited August 13, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

SS average ticket price was way higher as Imax/PLF dominated overall sales, so its going to be tough for FG to hit those numbers. But it wont be that far off. 

 

MTC1 - 81316/646807 1088213.14 3672 shows

 

its still 80% behind in $ value with about 60% of tickets sold for post 6PM shows. So tough to hit SS for sure at MTC1. 

 

Edit: My math is off. What I meant is it needs to do another 80% more to hit SS OD at MTC1. 

What I was thinking was it would be a little behind SS in MTC1 and ahead in MTC2. It could go lower for sure. We'll see. 

[CJohn]

Even I which am usually low on everything think Candyman is doing a cool 17M.