The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

Probably doesn't mean much but I looked at about 100 theatres across Canada (that had reserved seating), counting the # of seats sold and looking at the average ticket price at each theatre. 

 

There's a lot of variables, too many to make this number worth more than a guess, but I assumed average ticket price was adult+child divided by 2 (I did this individually for each 2D, 3D, AVX, DBOX etc. show). I added up my total $ for these theatres, multiplied it by 2 since approx. half the showtimes I looked at did not have reserved seating, multiplied that figure by 1.5 for the remaining theatres in Canada I did not look at (162 Cineplex and 30 Landmark total whereas I think I looked at 106 theatres or something). 

 

Then I took that number, divided it by the total population "Served" by these theatres, and then multiplied it by the total population of the domestic market (Canada + US) 

 

Anyways, my number for Pika Thursday previews came out to be 7.38M. Again though, there's far too many variables in the way to make it more than a guess based on extrapolation (of a pretty big sample size to be fair). It's encouraging, but who knows. 

 

Historical precedent for the theatre I track says 7-8M, and this number falls right in there. Who knows what it means, but the range seems to be 5-8M based on what everyone else's tracking is showing. 

Edited May 9, 2019 by DAJK

[That One Girl]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Pink turning into the reverse of Clint in The Mule complaining about how the old generation is ruining everything.

 

This will fit perfectly for Clint’s planned Mule Cinematic Universe (MCU)

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

Oddly the first of 2020 is quite good for them with Birds of Prey, Godzilla vs Kong, Scoob and WW1984. 

Scoob is dead. Pikachu has sold me on that.

 

 

I will say this Pikachu and Mary Poppins Returns are precautionary tales about nostalgia, great test screenings and trailer views imho.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Probably doesn't mean much but I looked at about 100 theatres across Canada (that had reserved seating), counting the # of seats sold and looking at the average ticket price at each theatre. 

 

There's a lot of variables, too many to make this number worth more than a guess, but I assumed average ticket price was adult+child divided by 2 (I did this individually for each 2D, 3D, AVX, DBOX etc. show). I added up my total $ for these theatres, multiplied it by 2 since approx. half the showtimes I looked at did not have reserved seating, multiplied that figure by 1.5 for the remaining theatres in Canada I did not look at (162 Cineplex and 30 Landmark total whereas I think I looked at 106 theatres or something). 

 

Then I took that number, divided it by the total population "Served" by these theatres, and then multiplied it by the total population of the domestic market (Canada + US) 

 

Anyways, by number for Pika Thursday previews came out to be 7.38M. Again though, there's far too many variables in the way to make it more than a guess based on extrapolation (of a pretty big sample size to be fair). It's encouraging, but who knows. 

If it hits 7.38-

 

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

This will fit perfectly for Clint’s planned Mule Cinematic Universe (MCU)

 

Down with Clint.

 

In my perfect world, Clint will be retired and talking to empty chairs for the rest of his life.

[Taruseth]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

WB is starting to look like they're masters at the 2nd half of the year (July-December). First half? Not so much. They're going to rule the fall and it won't even be a competition. That much is clear.

Haven't they pretty much for years now controlled the Fall. (maybe with a little help from Universal).

 

But July, November and December not so much.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Scoob is dead. Pikachu has sold me on that.

 

 

I will say this Pikachu and Mary Poppins Returns are precautionary tales about nostalgia, great test screenings and trailer views imho.

I wouldn't count Scoob out until we see some footage. 

[TMP]

10 minutes ago, JB33 said:

WB is starting to look like they're masters at the 2nd half of the year (July-December). First half? Not so much. They're going to rule the fall and it won't even be a competition. That much is clear.

It 2 and Joker will be big, but the rest seem like wild cards. Doctor Sleep could do Conjuring or La Lllorona numbers, jury's out on Goldfinch, Torrence, Motherless Brooklyn and The Good Liar too. Annabelle 3 should do solid.

[Jonwo]

Just now, TMP said:

It 2 and Joker will be big, but the rest seem like wild cards. Doctor Sleep could do Conjuring or La Lllorona numbers, jury's out on Goldfinch, Torrence, Motherless Brooklyn and The Good Liar too. Annabelle 3 should do solid.

Doctor Sleep is the Shining sequel so I expect it'll be marketed quite heavily with the first trailer with Annabelle Comes Homes. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

It 2 and Joker will be big, but the rest seem like wild cards. Doctor Sleep could do Conjuring or La Lllorona numbers, jury's out on Goldfinch, Torrence, Motherless Brooklyn and The Good Liar too. Annabelle 3 should do solid.

Don't summon Alli.

[JB33]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Probably doesn't mean much but I looked at about 100 theatres across Canada (that had reserved seating), counting the # of seats sold and looking at the average ticket price at each theatre. 

 

There's a lot of variables, too many to make this number worth more than a guess, but I assumed average ticket price was adult+child divided by 2 (I did this individually for each 2D, 3D, AVX, DBOX etc. show). I added up my total $ for these theatres, multiplied it by 2 since approx. half the showtimes I looked at did not have reserved seating, multiplied that figure by 1.5 for the remaining theatres in Canada I did not look at (162 Cineplex and 30 Landmark total whereas I think I looked at 106 theatres or something). 

 

Then I took that number, divided it by the total population "Served" by these theatres, and then multiplied it by the total population of the domestic market (Canada + US) 

 

Anyways, my number for Pika Thursday previews came out to be 7.38M. Again though, there's far too many variables in the way to make it more than a guess based on extrapolation (of a pretty big sample size to be fair). It's encouraging, but who knows. 

 

Historical precedent for the theatre I track says 7-8M, and this number falls right in there. Who knows what it means, but the range seems to be 5-8M based on what everyone else's tracking is showing. 

Good work! Thanks for doing this. That number makes sense. I think $70M+ is looking pretty good for PIka at this point.

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Haven't they pretty much for years now controlled the Fall. (maybe with a little help from Universal).

 

But July, November and December not so much.

I guess I was thinking about when they had a Harry Potter in November for many years, at least whenever there wasn't a Twilight or Hunger Games move in that mid-November slot.

[Cap]

 

 

 

11 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

My mom hates superhero movies though (even though she's barely seen any of them). My dad practically forced her to watch Wonder Woman.

You Mom and My Dad should hang out.  I took him once to GOTG, cause I already had bought the ticket and Mom couldn't go.  He felt asleep in the recliner.

 

Quote

But hey, maybe What's Your Number? will play on TBS this Sunday.

Such a gift of movie.  He should do more movies like that.  And by like that, I mean where he's half-naked 90% of the time.

[Jonwo]

The Hustle looks like another bomb for United Artists, MGM is lucky Creed II was a hit and Bond is coming because they've really had no luck this year. 

 

 

[JB33]

7 minutes ago, TMP said:

It 2 and Joker will be big, but the rest seem like wild cards. Doctor Sleep could do Conjuring or La Lllorona numbers, jury's out on Goldfinch, Torrence, Motherless Brooklyn and The Good Liar too. Annabelle 3 should do solid.

Pretty much. I just see a balanced, quality slate from them in the 2nd half of the year, same as last year when they started by lighting up August (The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians).

 

Maybe I'm exaggerating a bit but you get the idea. 

[That One Girl]

Just now, captainwondyful said:

You Mom and My Dad should hang out.  I took him once to GOTG, cause I already had bought the ticket and Mom couldn't go.  He felt asleep in the recliner.

 

 

My mom used to hate superhero movies too.  Like 5 years ago or so?  And then I took her to see Endgame and she was clapping during all of the exciting parts, said she loved it afterwards and that's when I knew that Disney's marketing schemes had worked on her

[MrPink]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

My mom used to hate superhero movies too.  Like 5 years ago or so?  And then I took her to see Endgame and she was clapping during all of the exciting parts, said she loved it afterwards and that's when I knew that Disney's marketing schemes had worked on her

 

Old people being hypocrites huh. Say it ain't so. They consume the Mule and Endgame, and disregard Pokemon. Scum

[DAJK]

I don't know about you guys but I'm seeing TONS of ads for The Hustle, and none for Poms. I would be thinking Hustle would be good for mid teens or so, but the reviews are truly awful, and I can't imagine WOM being stellar. Lowering from 15 to 10M. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

My mom used to hate superhero movies too.  Like 5 years ago or so?  And then I took her to see Endgame and she was clapping during all of the exciting parts, said she loved it afterwards and that's when I knew that Disney's marketing schemes had worked on her

Only a matter of time until you're completely under The Mouse's spell as well. You can't outrun your fate.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Old people being hypocrites huh. Say it ain't so. They consume the Mule and Endgame, and disregard Pokemon. Scum

 

The Mule vs. Mr. Pink, the crossover that the Mule fans have been waiting to see for ages