The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[UserHN]

15 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Blockers

504

1,106

2,931

Breaking In

727

1,204

2,899

Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266

Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108

MI6

*3,328

13,575

27,261

Eighth Grade (1K expansion)

494

508

720

936

The Meg

1,539

2,944

6,723

16,202

Searching (1K expansion)

303

588

1,194

2,862

Night School

1,045

1,756

3,566

Nobody's Fool

436

900

1,719

4,437

Instant Family

230

565

1,325

2,584

Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)

387

922

1,701

2,268

Spider-Verse

3,715

5,208

9,858

19,972

Bumblebee

1,553

1,817

3,157

On the Basis (2K expansion)

537

1,043

2,200

3,511

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

How to Train Your Dragon 3	3,724	6,674	12,935	21,313
Fight w/ Family (2.5K expansion)	165	368	1,284	2,657

Pokemon Detective Pikachu

5,061

7,653

13,177

23,309

Godzilla King of the Monsters

2,585

5,734

11,157

20,065

Ma	336	912	2,244	6,215
The Secret Life of Pets 2	2,967	3,245	7,355	12,860

MIB International	1,496	2,065	5,231
Shaft	330	577	1,363
Late Night (1.5K expansion)	232	348	1,048
*4pm-12am

 

MIB

Wednesday

53% of Spider-Verse (18.8M)

61% of Lego 2 (20.7M)

40% of Pikachu (21.6M)

40% of Dragon 3 (22.2M)

47% of King of the Monsters (22.4M)

38% of Mission: Impossible 6 (23.6M)

22% of Fallen Kingdom (33.3M)

166% of Bumblebee (35.9M)

47% of Ant-Man 2 (35.7M)

71% of Pets 2 (33.2M)

78% of The Meg (35.3M)

 

Day 11-2

55% of Lego 2 (18.8M)

36% of Dragon 3 (20.1M)

64% of Pets 2 (29.9M)

 

Day 16-2

51% of Lego 2 (17.5M)

37% of Dragon 3 (20.5M)

68% of Pets 2 (31.7M)

 

So the good news is this saw a very strong boost from yesterday's results. The bad news is the numbers still aren't good. But hey, I'll take any good news I can take at this moment.

 

Shaft

Wednesday

47% of Breaking In (8.3M)

46% of Blockers (9.6M)

38% of Night School (10.4M)

79% of Nobody's Fool (10.9M)

61% of Ma (11M)

94% of Tag (14.1M)

103% of Instant Family (14.9M)

113% of Uncle Drew (17.3M)

 

This is looking worse and worse for Shaft every day.

 

Late Night

Wednesday

57% of On the Basis of Sex (2.9M)

62% of Green Book (3.4M 3-Day, 4.6M 5-Day)

146% of Eighth Grade (4.1M)

88% of Searching (5.3M 3-Day, 6.7M 4-Day)

82% of Fighting with my Family (6.4M)

 

Eh, I guess it's fine?

So around mid-20M for MIBI?

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, UserHN said:

So around mid-20M for MIBI?

Looking at Fandango pre-sales, surprisingly it might  hit low to mid 30s with previews in the low 3s.   Internal multi will be boosted by Father's Day

[Finnick]

TOY STORY N5 at MT,

 

38.5%

The Secret Life of Pets 2

22.2%

Aladdin

12.8%

Rocketman

4.1%

Dark Phoenix

3.2%

Toy Story 4

 

[el sid]

Now Men in Black International entered the Top 5 of MT:

#1 Pets 2 39.7%
#2 Aladdin 23.5%
#3 Rocketman 12.9%
#4 DP 4.2%
#5 MiBI 3%

[Lordmandeep]

so how many movies are going to flop this weekend. 

[filmlover]

Men in Black should at least hit $30M due to Sunday being Father's Day but I'm guessing won't have much staying power after that. People can wail about Disney dominating the market all they want but hey, at least someone is doing something right.

[RamblinRed]

One thing I noticed this morning looking at the 2 cinemas closest to me that I tend to go to.

Both are moving Aladdin into larger auditoriums this weekend than last weekend. In both cinemas it is moving from one of the mid size auditoriums to one of the largest ones. In both MIB gets the PLF auditorium. Then SLOP2 (on 2 screens) and Aladdin get the next largest auditoriums. 

In one cinema Shaft gets a mid-sized auditorium, in the other cinema it gets one of the smallest auditoriums.

 

In terms of seat potential Aladdin is getting over 50% more seats than it got last weekend in the 2 theaters.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Wait, where is the 30 million for MIB coming from. I think it will get about 2 million in previews. Are you all thinking a 15x internal multi are are you estimating a higher preview #?

[YM!]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Men in Black should at least hit $30M due to Sunday being Father's Day but I'm guessing won't have much staying power after that. People can wail about Disney dominating the market all they want but hey, at least someone is doing something right.

Just because they’re doing it right, doesn’t make it right.

[cdsacken]

Maybe secret life of pets has a smaller drop than usual too?

[Biggestgeekever]

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/spiderman-far-from-home-box-office-tracking-1203239357/

 

Quote

Coming on the heels of his emotional appearance in “Avengers: Endgame,” Tom Holland’s web-slinging hero is headed back to multiplexes over the July 4 holiday weekend for “Spider-Man: Homecoming.” According to early tracking, Sony’s MarvelComic entry is expected to earn $154 million during its first six days of release. This year, Independence Day falls on a Thursday, so the studio is getting a jump by opening the film on Tuesday.

Seems to likely to be pretty low, though we'll have to keep our eye on how presales go over the next few weeks.

[Rebeccas]

The weird holiday weekend/releasing on a Tuesday thing might make FFH kind of hard to predict tbh

[FlashMaster659]

3 hours ago, Finnick said:

TOY STORY N5 at MT,

 

38.5%

The Secret Life of Pets 2

22.2%

Aladdin

12.8%

Rocketman

4.1%

Dark Phoenix

3.2%

Toy Story 4

 

For comparison, I2 first showed up on MT 8 days before previews.

Edited June 13, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Biggestgeekever]

There appears to be something wrong with the MT tracker. Aladdin is now somehow up to 32.2%, Rocketman up over 15%, Dark Phoenix is at 3.8% only, and Godzilla has vanished overnight. 

 

Looks like they updated the main page so there might be some technical issues going on.

[MattW]

12 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/spiderman-far-from-home-box-office-tracking-1203239357/

 

Seems to likely to be pretty low, though we'll have to keep our eye on how presales go over the next few weeks.

 

11 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

The weird holiday weekend/releasing on a Tuesday thing might make FFH kind of hard to predict tbh

Tues-Sun isn't too much different from Fri-Wed, and Homecoming did 154m during its first 6 days, Friday-Wednesday.  

Transformers 2007 did $155.4m during its first 6 days including Monday night previews of 8.8m and ended up with a comparable total with Homecoming.

[TomeRide]

14 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/spiderman-far-from-home-box-office-tracking-1203239357/

 

Seems to likely to be pretty low, though we'll have to keep our eye on how presales go over the next few weeks.

How fucking lazy and safe. They just took the 6-day total of Homecoming. And a sequel should be more frontloaded than its predecessor, so that would point to a sub-$300M total, which isn't happening. That number should be at the very least $180M+ (which would lead to around the same total as Homecoming), or in my opinion just $200M+.

[Seto Kaiba]

THR:

Quote

Far from Home, which will hit theaters on July 2, is tracking for a bow in $150 million to $160 million range at the North American box office over its six-day run, according to those with access to early surveys.

While estimates will likely increase as Sony makes its final marketing push, some industry experts already have the superhero movie reaching as high as $180 million in its Tuesday through Sunday run.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/spider-man-far-home-tracking-big-box-office-bow-1218066

[filmlover]

Spider-Man 2 made $180M over its 6-day launch on 4th of July weekend in 2004 so this being in that same ballpark sounds right.

[fabiopazzo2]

46 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/spiderman-far-from-home-box-office-tracking-1203239357/

 

Seems to likely to be pretty low, though we'll have to keep our eye on how presales go over the next few weeks.

$ 175-195M imho 

[Eric is Quiet]

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Toy Story 4	1,724	2,015	3,101
	11 days	10 days	9 days
Annabelle 3	66	55	81
	16 days	15 days	14 days
Spider-Man FFH	907	803	1,192
	22 days	21 days	20 days

 

Toy Story

Day 18-9

117% of Aladdin (106.9M 3-Day, 136.4M 4-Day)]

60% of Incredibles 2 (110.1M)

247% of Dumbo (113.7M)

225% of Dragon 3 (123.8M)

402% of Lego 2 (137.1M)

262% of Shazam! (140.1M)

 

Day 24-9

242% of Shazam! (129.4M)

279% of Dragon 3 (153.5M)

84% of Incredibles 2 (153.7M)

 

Annabelle

Day 22-14

21% of Us (15M)

 

Far From Home

Day 29-20

49% of Captain Marvel (76.1M)

 

 

This was a good day for all three movies. Toy Story is still going strong, although 150M still seems like the highest it could go at the moment (we'll see how reviews impact things later today), Annabelle is starting to gain traction, and Far From Home jumped quite a bit in the ticket sales too. Hopefully we'll see an even bigger spike in the coming days.