The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, Porthos said:

Frozen 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	118	14758	16562	1804	10.89%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

89

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp (Still a bit LOL at this stage due to one-week difference in sale length)

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts / Shows	Seats Left / Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
Aladdin	184.97		41	945		0/68	9052/9997	9.45%		12.95m
TS4	97.98		70	1784		0/90	10525/12309	14.49%		11.76m
TLK	56.46		219	3096		0/191	17577/20673	14.98%		12.99m
Frozen 2 (adj)	n/a		89	1748		0/118	12486/14234	12.28%		n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Aladdin and The Lion King both had 25 days of pre-sales and Toy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales.  In comparison Frozen 2 had 18 days of pre-sales. 

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Frozen 2 (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for all of the movies in that stat block.

 

===

 

Frozen 2 keeps on truckin' along.  Very very very tiny bit surprised the pace hasn't picked up a bit more to make up for the lost week of pre-sales, but I guess much like Joker it'll just have a larger close in the last few days of pre-sales.  

 

Regardless, over TS4 is a damn near certainty at this point IMO, if Sacramento is any indication. Over 14m a pretty damn good bet as well.  Beyond that, I'm not as certain.  Ask me again in a few days.

 

I think since your data is Cinemark dominated it will over index.Keep that in mind as Cinemark to AMC ratio is way off the charts. Cost of underperformance in NYC is greater than those in smaller cities.

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think since your data is Cinemark dominated it will over index.Keep that in mind as Cinemark to AMC ratio is way off the charts. Cost of underperformance in NYC is greater than those in smaller cities.

@Inceptionzq has similar numbers though, and theirs is dominated by AMC.

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Menor said:

@Inceptionzq has similar numbers though, and theirs is dominated by AMC.

But impact of lower ticket sales at mega cities have bigger impact than smaller cities. it does not even have dolby at lincoln square where tickets are 26.50 !!! That is equivalent to 3 tickets in smaller markets. I just posted above amc ontario mills where dolby tickets are 20 bucks. Metreon Imax/Dolby tickets are 24 and again F2 is not even having previews there. So my take is at this point its previews are all over the place. Over indexing in some markets and under indexing(sometimes significantly) in other markets.

 

Let us see where things stand next week. I will run AMC previews daily but rest couple of times a week. its too cumbersome as each run takes 3-4 hours.

[Eric Duncan]

Frozen II Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	920	16,112	5.71%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 668

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp

6.970x of Maleficent 10 days before release (16.03M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.352x of Lion King (8.10M)

 

Good-sized increase, although the past two days seeing a decline from Lion King is a little suspicious. But it's doing well in other areas, and the comparison isn't completely fair due to just how much Lion King sold, so we'll see.

[Eric Duncan]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-38 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	8,300	29,108	28.51%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 176

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

 

Comp

4.364x of Once Upon’s final count (25.31M)

2.396x of It: Chapter Two (25.16M)

1.690x of Joker (22.48M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.694x of Lion King (15.97M)

3.295x of Hobbs & Shaw (19.11M)

 

Guess that Mandalorian promo did wonders, because this day was its biggest in over a week. It woudla been cool to see it beat out Frozen for today, but still nice to see, and does at least show Mandalorian is somewhat of a valuable promotion for TROS

[Menor the Destroyer]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

But impact of lower ticket sales at mega cities have bigger impact than smaller cities. it does not even have dolby at lincoln square where tickets are 26.50 !!! That is equivalent to 3 tickets in smaller markets. I just posted above amc ontario mills where dolby tickets are 20 bucks. Metreon Imax/Dolby tickets are 24 and again F2 is not even having previews there. So my take is at this point its previews are all over the place. Over indexing in some markets and under indexing(sometimes significantly) in other markets.

 

Let us see where things stand next week. I will run AMC previews daily but rest couple of times a week. its too cumbersome as each run takes 3-4 hours.

I agree somewhat. I'm thinking 10-12 previews seems likely rn. Just pointing out that some AMC dominated areas are selling well.

[keysersoze123]

At this point there are too many variables and I dont have anything to compare with at macro level(AMC) to even hone in on number. I would say AMC+CIN should end up around 30-35%. Average ticket price for this would be lower and so it would need 350k+ tickets across 2 platform to hit 10m and 400K+ for 12m.

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

F2 CIN update (T-10)

CIN Prev - 36057/384470  2408 shows +2078
CIN OD - overall 4327 shows 59081/733342 post 6PM 1605 shows 30460/275364 +4435
CIN D2 - overall 4346 shows 72795/732246  post 6PM 1608 shows 9233/274849  +5391
CIN D3 - overall 4304 shows 38779/729394 post 6PM 1569 shows 2969/269572 +2902

Overall +14808

 

It has been amazingly consistent at Cinemark. Slightly Ahead on Previews and slightly behind on D2 compared to AMC(but that is mostly bcos of fan screening having much stronger %).

 

I am slowly running OD and D3 of AMC and hopefully no errors and I have numbers by morning time.

Consolidating all AMC data

AMC Prev - 33948/309285 $514609 1530 shows 11/11
AMD OD - overall 3497 shows 51159/739522 post 6PM 1683 shows 30838/356612  11/11
AMC D2 - overall 3652 shows 78719/764564 post 6PM 1663 shows 16656/354270  11/12
AMC D3 -overall 3512 shows 42301/738866 post 6PM 1585 shows 6446/334263 11/12

 

Interesting thing is Day 3 is greater than AMC though CIN is still overindexing. I will stick to Preview updates mostly to see the pace of increase and if possible will run Day 2 and occassionaly run Day1/3 as well.

 

I ran Day 2 again around noon PST and it just completed and Day 2 ticket sales increased about 5300 tickets in past 24 hours. That is very similar to CIN increase yesterday.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2019 by keysersoze123

[TwoMisfits]

Panic about the last 2 weeks (and the performance of Midway, the only one with a "real deal" and the only one to beat tracking) has spurred some good Atom deals this week...

 

The Good Liar is BOGO on Atom while supplies last (Edit - starting tomorrow).  Charlies Angels is B2GO on Atom while supplies last (same Nov 13 start date).  We'll see if these deals pop either presales (I'm betting the Good Liar gets the boost b/c it's the better deal and probably the better movie).

Edited November 12, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

The reviews for Charlie's Angels are on the alright side but it's probably too little too late. If it can manage an opening in the high teens it will probably be alright, since it doesn't even need to make $100M globally to turn end up not a flop.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

The reviews for Charlie's Angels are on the alright side but it's probably too little too late. If it can manage an opening in the high teens it will probably be alright, since it doesn't even need to make $100M globally to turn end up not a flop.

It could pull in a midway which had almost no PS but did do much better than what we expected on thursday. But PS is still abysmal for Charlie's Angels. It has more shows than Ford vs Ferrari but worse PS. Let us see how things go on thursday.

 

On 11/2/2019 at 8:48 PM, keysersoze123 said:

 

Wanted to look at week after next releases and compare to next week releases.

 

Charlie's Angels

AMC - 738/131840 $8539 (685 shows)

Cin - 779/106733 $9723 (735 shows)

 

Ford vs Ferrari (T-12) Previews

AMC - 1844/90220 $28053 (485 shows)

Cin -  1410/83721 $17557 (514 shows)

 

Ford vs Ferrari is doing much better with fewer shows. May be BO.com tracking could come true for this. Charlies angels definitely is bombing. Female driven movies should otherwise have good PS. This is really bad.

Update

 

Charlie’s Angel
AMC - 3489/157375 856 shows
CIN - 1454/146825 1061 shows

 

 

Ford vs Ferrari

AMC - 8894/128420 680 shows

CIN - 5217/146599 963 shows

 

Awful for Charlie's Angels. Better for Ford vs Ferrari. Hopefully that breaks out big. But neither movie looks like making even 2m previews at this point.

 

Edit

Charlies Angels seem to have some Girl's night Out early screening tomorrow. Number of shows not so much but its filling up. Could add 300K or so to previews plus could build WOM.

 

AMC - 3308/13848 88 shows
CIN - 829/5711  50 shows

Edited November 12, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Inceptionzq]

On 11/11/2019 at 3:19 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1567

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1612

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7749	41	22870	33.88%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1573

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1616

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7783	34	22870	34.03%	9	182

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

225

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

263

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1164	66	10723	10.86%	9	61

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 554

 

Adjusted Lion King comp: 12.89M

 

I did an OD count for Frozen 2 to see how far ahead of previews it is. As of almost 2 hours ago, it was at 1646 tickets sold. Which is 141% of previews. Pretty far behind the Cinemark data from @keysersoze123, which had OD at 161% of previews as of yesterday. But still looks really good.

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

247

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

285

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1256	92	10983	11.44%	9	63

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 260

 

Adjusted Lion King comp: 13.12M

[TLK]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It could pull in a midway which had almost no PS but did do much better than what we expected on thursday. But PS is still abysmal for Charlie's Angels. It has more shows than Ford vs Ferrari but worse PS. Let us see how things go on thursday.

 

Update

 

Charlie’s Angel
AMC - 3489/157375 856 shows
CIN - 1454/146825 1061 shows

 

Ford vs Ferrari

AMC - 8894/128420 680 shows

CIN - 5217/146599 963 shows

 

Awful for Charlie's Angels. Better for Ford vs Ferrari. Hopefully that breaks out big. But neither movie looks like making even 2m previews at this point.

 

Do you have Charlie's Angels numbers for Wednesday previews ? I wonder if those are hurting its Thursday numbers.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

46

434

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

59

738

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
175	35	4267	4.10%	8	21

 

Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.91M

Adjusted Ad Astra comp: 1.91M

Adjusted Rambo comp: 1.95M

Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

52

434

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

72

738

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
243	68	5037	4.82%	9	26

 

Showings added: 5

Seats added: 770

 

Adjusted Ad Astra comp: 1.68M

Adjusted Rambo comp: 2.03M

[keysersoze123]

21 minutes ago, TLK said:

 

Do you have Charlie's Angels numbers for Wednesday previews ? I wonder if those are hurting its Thursday numbers.

Nope. Quick glance at fandango it seems very limited. but Empire 25 and Lincoln Square shows looks busier than thursday shows. I will see if I can get numbers and update the post above.

 

Edit:Post updated.

Edited November 12, 2019 by keysersoze123

[ZackM]

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-37 days and counting

 

Last 24 Hours
Showings Added	2
Seats Added	413
Seats Sold	44
11/12/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	234	29,757	41,568	11,811	28.41%
Theater	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Ada Lowell 5	2	44	158	114	72.15%
AMC FORUM 30	45	6,772	8,003	1,231	15.38%
AMC GRAND RAPIDS 18	17	752	1,403	651	46.40%
AMC HOLLAND 8	4	154	409	255	62.35%
AMC JOHN R 15	11	307	1,253	946	75.50%
AMC LIVONIA 20	10	1,357	2,226	869	39.04%
AMC PORTAGE STREET 10	8	523	890	367	41.24%
AMC STAR GRATIOT 15	17	1,232	1,634	402	24.60%
AMC STAR GREAT LAKES 25	25	5,023	5,584	561	10.05%
AMC STAR SOUTHFIELD 20	14	5,609	5,690	81	1.42%
AMC WOODHAVEN VILLAGE 10	8	508	850	342	40.24%
Bay City 10 GDX	2	324	507	183	36.09%
Celebration Cinema Benton	7	294	540	246	45.56%
Celebration Cinema Crossroads	8	236	1,136	900	79.23%
Celebration Cinema GR North	8	786	1,923	1,137	59.13%
Celebration Cinema GR South	4	487	1,024	537	52.44%
Celebration Cinema Lansing	9	414	1,086	672	61.88%
Celebration Cinema Mt Pleasant	5	993	1,145	152	13.28%
Celebration Cinema Rivertown	8	1,529	2,271	742	32.67%
Cinema Carousel	6	730	1,138	408	35.85%
Holland 7	2	53	210	157	74.76%
Krafft 8	2	159	206	47	22.82%
Quality 10 GDX	4	905	1,360	455	33.46%
Studio C Meridian Mall	4	362	596	234	39.26%
W. Columbia 7	4	204	326	122	37.42%

For some reason one of these theaters lost 20 sold seats.

Edited November 12, 2019 by ZackM

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, ZackM said:

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-37 days and counting

 

For some reason one of these theaters lost 20 sold seats.

Could be a group sale refund, as I've seen several over the course of the pre-sale window, possibly because of the sheer length of pre-sales.  Also could be a glitch on their end or your own scraper.  

 

Not a huge deal, either way.

[ZackM]

Frozen 2 - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

Last 24 Hours
Showings Added	5
Seats Added	798
Seats Sold	24
11/12/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	78	16,560	17,537	977	5.57%

Edited November 13, 2019 by ZackM

[Eric Duncan]

Charlie's Angels Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	47	119	9,872	1.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats LOST Today: 228

Total Seats Sold Today: 40

 

Comp

0.337x of Hustlers 3 days before release (843K)

0.259x of Downton Abbey (544K)

0.490x of Maleficent (1.13M)

2.333x of Last Christmas (1.34M)

 

I know that this movie gaining showtimes but losing seats is weird, but that's because the showings added was offset by one of the theaters sacrificing their PLFs to Ford v Ferrari. And yet, despite the showcount loss, the comps in general picked up considerably (though still not good). Go figure