The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Looking in the thread, the oldest number we have on EG is 13 days out

That would be $95mn Approx. Yeah it's like a week later than now for TROS but TROS is selling like for a month and week while EG was 11 days. TROS is currently half of this number.

 

Per @Deep Wang data, estimating to

13 Days Out: $95mn

7 Days Out: $115-120mn

4 Days Out: $140mn

1 Day Out: $170mn

Final: $185mn Approx

 

I'm hoping it picks up. 185 mil OW is disappointing imo. Will need 3.24x to reach 600 mil.

[filmlover]

The Numbers December predictions:

 

Star Wars: $750M

Jumanji: $325M

Little Women: $105M

Bombshell: $85M

Cats: $75M

Spies in Disguise: $75M

Richard Jewell: $65M

Black Christmas: $40M

PLAYMOBIL: $15M

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/243230830-2019-Preview-December

[filmlover]

Definitely going too high on Bombshell (Vice proved last year people don't really want to see this kinds of movies around the holidays) and clearly that's the best case scenario for both Star Wars and Jumanji. Rest looks about right though.

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Looking in the thread, the oldest number we have on EG is 13 days out

That would be $95mn Approx. Yeah it's like a week later than now for TROS but TROS is selling like for a month and week while EG was 11 days. TROS is currently half of this number.

 

Per @Deep Wang data, estimating to

13 Days Out: $95mn

7 Days Out: $115-120mn

4 Days Out: $140mn

1 Day Out: $170mn

Final: $185mn Approx

 

Ouch at $185 million! That hurts if true. What would the preview number look like under that situation? $35 million?

 

Looking at random theaters, you'd think the previews would be closer to TFA by looking at the first few showings in most. But then you realize that it's ONLY the first few showings. After that things sputter.

[JJF]

Hello everyone! I've been lurking in this forum since Catching Fire days (I know, it's been so long that it's even creepy). I highly enjoy box office theory but I hadn't signed up before because I cannot really add much to the forum, as people here are already very familiar with box office and know much more than what I do. However, these past days I've been paying attention to The Rise of Skywalker presales and there's something that concerns me and that I wanted to ask here so that any of you could shed some light on it.

 

Experts and those who follow tracking here seem to be concerned about TROS presales being quite lower than TFA and TLJ presales. But are they really that low for previews-FSS? I remember reading an article back in 2015 about TFA breaking 100 million presales. According to the article published December 16, 2015 (two days before TFA release):

 

"The seventh installment in the “Star Wars” saga is set to create ripple effects across the industry, as advance ticket sales in North America have surpassed the $100 million mark, according to The Hollywood Reporter. 

 

Sources told The Hollywood Reporter on Tuesday that this $100 million figure includes the $50 million to $60 million in sales for its opening weekend"

 

As Jedi Jat mentioned, presales for the weekend are around $49,5 million right now. So, is it really that bad? I know that presales have rocketed in these past 4 years and that it needs to be taken into account. Yet, SW has always been presales heavy and I assume that movies over this period of time have been adjusting to what TFA had previously achieved.

 

I don't know. Maybe I'm missing something crucial, but I've sensed some doom and gloom when we are still 19 days away from OD and presales for the weekend itself don't seem that bad (though probably lagging behind TFA ones), especially when taking into account how scattered presales for TFA were.

 

Sorry for the long post and thank you to any of you who may answer.

 

Ps: find attached the link to the web where I took the reference from: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/star-wars-the-force-awakens-surpasses-100m-in-advanced-ticket-sales-report.html

[Immortal]

12 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Ouch at $185 million! That hurts if true. What would the preview number look like under that situation? $35 million?

 

Looking at random theaters, you'd think the previews would be closer to TFA by looking at the first few showings in most. But then you realize that it's ONLY the first few showings. After that things sputter.

That is @Jedi Jat extrapolating Endgame presales from the data we had not the OW prediction of TROS

[Valonqar]

22 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Ouch at $185 million! That hurts if true. What would the preview number look like under that situation? $35 million?

 

Looking at random theaters, you'd think the previews would be closer to TFA by looking at the first few showings in most. But then you realize that it's ONLY the first few showings. After that things sputter.

185M is only a projection 20 days before the release. So OW numbers always go higher. I mean, I get that sales leg behind TLJ and TFA or whatever, but projections don't mean that numbers cannot go up on OW.  Presales don't include walk ups that always happen for any movie including pre-sales driven ones.

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

185M is only a projection 20 days before the release. So OW numbers always go higher. I mean, I get that sales leg behind TLJ and TFA or whatever, but projections don't mean that numbers cannot go up on OW.  Presales don't include walk ups that always happen for any movie including pre-sales driven ones.

 

 

Indeed. Also, lets say previews are $35m (I believe it'll be higher but lets say it's that) and the initial audience reaction is "omg this is amazing!" that'll spread on social media real quick and draw in a lot of people who be iffy about this final chapter. At the end of the day, as with all films, audience reaction is what matters most. 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

16 minutes ago, Immortal said:

That is @Jedi Jat extrapolating Endgame presales from the data we had not the OW prediction of TROS

Quoting for the people who still are misinterpreting.

[RockyMountain]

13 minutes ago, JJF said:

Hello everyone! I've been lurking in this forum since Catching Fire days (I know, it's been so long that it's even creepy). I highly enjoy box office theory but I hadn't signed up before because I cannot really add much to the forum, as people here are already very familiar with box office and know much more than what I do. However, these past days I've been paying attention to The Rise of Skywalker presales and there's something that concerns me and that I wanted to ask here so that any of you could shed some light on it.

 

Experts and those who follow tracking here seem to be concerned about TROS presales being quite lower than TFA and TLJ presales. But are they really that low for previews-FSS? I remember reading an article back in 2015 about TFA breaking 100 million presales. According to the article published December 16, 2015 (two days before TFA release):

 

"The seventh installment in the “Star Wars” saga is set to create ripple effects across the industry, as advance ticket sales in North America have surpassed the $100 million mark, according to The Hollywood Reporter. 

 

Sources told The Hollywood Reporter on Tuesday that this $100 million figure includes the $50 million to $60 million in sales for its opening weekend"

 

As Jedi Jat mentioned, presales for the weekend are around $49,5 million right now. So, is it really that bad? I know that presales have rocketed in these past 4 years and that it needs to be taken into account. Yet, SW has always been presales heavy and I assume that movies over this period of time have been adjusting to what TFA had previously achieved.

 

I don't know. Maybe I'm missing something crucial, but I've sensed some doom and gloom when we are still 19 days away from OD and presales for the weekend itself don't seem that bad (though probably lagging behind TFA ones), especially when taking into account how scattered presales for TFA were.

 

Sorry for the long post and thank you to any of you who may answer.

 

Ps: find attached the link to the web where I took the reference from: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/16/star-wars-the-force-awakens-surpasses-100m-in-advanced-ticket-sales-report.html

People are making predictions when there are still three weeks left of presales. No one knows for sure how much it will pick up (as people have said earlier in the thread it usually really starts ramping up about a week or two before release). No its not bad at all. A lot of people here are just Star Wars fans and want to see it do as well as it possibly can. Just think of it like this. Fans of a sports team can often be disappointed in a team that only loses two games in a season simply because they weren't the absolute best team that season or weren't quite as good as some teams they have had in the past (this is a long those same lines).

 

Chances are still very good it will finish right around the 200m mark for OW (maybe just slightly under or slightly over). And for a franchise that has released five movies since 2015 that is still an astounding feat. No matter how you feel about the past several movies I think most all would agree that because they have released so many movies as of late it no longer feels like an event. 

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Chances are still very good it will finish right around the 200m mark for OW (maybe just slightly under or slightly over). And for a franchise that has released five movies since 2015 that is still an astounding feat. No matter how you feel about the past several movies I think most all would agree that because they have released so many movies as of late it no longer feels like an event. 

I sort of get what you’re saying, but the 360M OW came from a franchise that released 13 movies since 2015.

[charlie Jatinder]

36 minutes ago, JJF said:

$100 million figure includes the $50 million to $60 million in sales for its opening weekend"

That is impossible. Previews, especially 2 days out are the biggest chunk of sales especially when you have $57mn worth of them.

We don't have data for weekdays yet, I hope @Menor could provide us that but most likely it will be hardly a little higher than Sunday with Christmas & day after doing majority of that.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Jedi Jat said:

That is impossible. Previews, especially 2 days out are the biggest chunk of sales especially when you have $57mn worth of them.

We don't have data for weekdays yet, I hope @Menor could provide us that but most likely it will be hardly a little higher than Sunday with Christmas & day after doing majority of that.

 

Will run it at some point today or tomorrow. But I agree the 50-60% seems hard to believe though Christmas day was unusually big for TFA ps.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I sort of get what you’re saying, but the 357M OW came from a franchise that released 13 movies since 2015.

I know you rounded off but gotta respect the 7 thing.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Will run it at some point today or tomorrow. But I agree the 50-60% seems hard to believe though Christmas day was unusually big for TFA ps.

My best guess would be roughly. 80-85% for weekend, given previews itself would be $40mn plus by then.

[RockyMountain]

8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I sort of get what you’re saying, but the 360M OW came from a franchise that released 13 movies since 2015.

Yes and only a small handful of those thirteen movies even came close to what TROS is going to do. A big reason the Avengers movies were able to make as much as they did was because the MCU has a lot of different stories that would all come together in the Avengers movies. Few MCU fans probably go see every single MCU movie but the Avengers was something that all the fans of all the different super hero movies that the MCU had built up over the years would need to go see.

[FlashMaster659]

4 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Don't know but per @Deep Wang final numbers, two were close. So I guess TLJ was around $100mn final.

DHD reported TLJ final as $85m.

 

"The anomaly here is that despite advance tickets being 15% behind Force Awakens at an estimated $85M, there’s been a significant amount of walk-up business at 39%."

 

https://deadline.com/2017/12/the-last-jedi-star-wars-opening-box-office-records-1202228444/

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Yes and only a small handful of those thirteen movies even came close to what TROS is going to do

4 of those 13 opened higher than TRS look like. So that's count something.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

DHD reported TLJ final as $85m.

I won't read much on what DHD says when we have actual numbers here on board.

We had a MTC doing numbers par TFA so its not possible that TLJ was that low, especially 85 as MTC was 36, at bare minimum should be 115mn approx. 

[RockyMountain]

9 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

4 of those 13 opened higher than TRS look like. So that's count something.

True. And three of those movies were the Avengers movies. Movies that were pretty much must see for all the fans of the various super heroes that were within the MCU.