The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

How’s the overall weekend looking?

i have not yet looked beyond previews but will try at least day 1/2 to see if its backloaded.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Was posted in the TROS thread, but might as well post it here

 

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-fandango-christmas-holiday-moviegoing-box-office-1202799669/

 

Quote

EXCLUSIVE: After exhibition experienced the richer side of November with Disney’s Frozen 2 and Lionsgate/Media Rights Capital’s Knives Out, they can look forward to a snowfall of cash come the late December period.

 

Fandango reports today that in a recent poll of 1,000 participants, 93% of all moviegoers 18 and up plan to see at least 2 movies during the December holidays, while 34% plan to see as many as 4 movies. Two of the top leading titles in their top five are of course Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opening Dec. 20 and Sony’s Jumanji: The Next Level on Dec. 13.

 

Forecasts for Skywalker are north of $200M, and again, whether this pic overperforms will have to do with any last minute buzz among moviegoers, further propped by critics, that this 42 year-old sci-fi franchise wrap-up is a must-see. Jumanji: The Next Level is seeing a 3-day debut around $40M.

 

More encouraging signs from Fandango’s survey about year-end moviegoing:

• 86% of those polled say that going to the movies is their favorite holiday activity;
• 75% of millennials claim the new streaming services have increased their interest in seeing movies on the big screen;
• 78% concluded that Disney+’s The Mandalorian has made them more excited to see Rise of Skywalker; 
• 71% say their favorite destination during the holidays is their hometown movie theater.

Among the top 5 pics they’ll be watching:

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
2. Jumanji: The Next Level
3. Little Women
4. Bombshell
5. Cats

 

[Justin4125]

1 minute ago, Eric Plus said:

Was posted in the TROS thread, but might as well post it here

 

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-fandango-christmas-holiday-moviegoing-box-office-1202799669/

 

 

The Xmas - New Years corridor is the most lucrative movie going period all year. Rentrak (now Comscore) ran a similar study but asking participants after the holidays how many movies they had seen. The average was just above 3 if I remember correctly, its really insane. If WOM builds for TROS, the skys the limit

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Only thing that really surprised me was seeing Bombshell in the top 5. I don't expect this to happen, but it would be pretty funny if this followed Hustlers and was another hit movie Annapurna dropped

[CJohn]

37 minutes ago, Eric Plus said:

Only thing that really surprised me was seeing Bombshell in the top 5. I don't expect this to happen, but it would be pretty funny if this followed Hustlers and was another hit movie Annapurna dropped

These movies are hits because Annapurna dropped them.

Edited December 3, 2019 by CJohn

[narniadis]

Bombshell could be a lower grossing version of American Hustle behavior wise? Obviously not the huge smash that one ended up and without quite the extensive name cast but enough to play well. 

Of course its way more likely to be Vice 2.0 lol

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/2/2019 at 3:20 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1722

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1765

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
8919	106	22870	39.00%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 21.65M

Final Maleficent count comp: 25.29M

Final IT 2 count comp: 24.12M

Final Hobbs count comp: 25.21M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 25.72M

Final Lion King count comp: 27.04M

 

Average: 24.84M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1736

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1778

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9028	109	22870	39.48%	9	182

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 21.91M

Final Maleficent count comp: 25.60M

Final IT 2 count comp: 24.41M

Final Hobbs count comp: 25.52M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 26.06M

Final Lion King count comp: 27.37M

 

Average: 25.15M

[Inceptionzq]

On 12/2/2019 at 3:49 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

25

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

40

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST ~8 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
125	125	11405	1.10%	9	58

 

I'll start comps tomorrow or Wednesday

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

41

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

45

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
162	37	11405	1.42%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.18M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.11M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.36M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.66M

 

These numbers aren't good at all. Maybe it'll end up being more backloaded and walkup based though. Take that Frozen 2 comp with a big grain of salt rn, and the others too, albeit a smaller grain of salt.

[JB33]

1 hour ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jumanji: The Next Level Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

41

1686

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

45

1610

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
162	37	11405	1.42%	9	58

 

Frozen 2 comp: 1.18M

Adjusted Maleficent comp: 2.11M

Adjusted Zombieland 2 comp: 2.36M

Adjusted Gemini Man comp: 2.66M

 

These numbers aren't good at all. Maybe it'll end up being more backloaded and walkup based though. Take that Frozen 2 comp with a big grain of salt rn, and the others too, albeit a smaller grain of salt.

It will probably indeed be walk up based, but do you also get the feeling the last Jumanji was simply lightning in a bottle?

[Nova]

So I haven’t done Jumanji yet but that’s because it’s tickets are at the bare minimum at the moment. I figured it’ll be more walk up based so I was gonna start tracking it this Thursday. 

[cdsacken]

Curious to see just how huge the drop-off will be from last year.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Jumanji 2 Previews (T-9)

MTC1 - overall 1534 shows 6150/328297 107217.27 +1503
MTC2 - overall 2654 shows 3473/433710 43750.00 +1146

 

Very mediocre numbers. I guess real action wont happen until wednesday next week.

Jumanji 2

MTC1 OD - overall 2595 shows 5745/564589 97982.32
MTC2 OD - overall 2844 shows 5173/513050 59272.00
MTC1 D2 -overall 2660 shows 6496/574867 94133.90
MTC2 D2 - overall 2858 shows 5454/514932 57625.00

 

Since @Inceptionzq had asked how rest of the weekend is looking, I looked at Day 1/2 PS at 2 MTC's. Numbers are still not great.

 

That said this movie wont be driven by PS. I still think it should open to 50m+.

[ZackM]

Jumanji: The Next Level Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	79
Seats Added	-300	15,505
Seats Sold	18	178
12/3/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	79	15,009	15,205	196	1.29%

Edited December 4, 2019 by ZackM

[Inceptionzq]

2 hours ago, JB33 said:

It will probably indeed be walk up based, but do you also get the feeling the last Jumanji was simply lightning in a bottle?

Yeah Jumanji was definitely lightning in a bottle.  This one was never gonna reach the heights of the second one, but I thought The Next Level could get 300M DOM/800M WW. DOM definitely won’t reach 300M imo. Not sure about OS getting 500M still being a possibility. 

[Porthos]

Normally I wouldn't be too concerned about these Day Two numbers for this type of film.  But it is just ten days away (or rather, these are the ten days away numbers).

 

Dunno.  Might just be getting lost in the Frozen 2/TROS shuffle.  One the other hand, the last Jumanji had competition as well on the front end when Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League grosses are combined (not to mention Coco hanging around on the fringes).

 

Don't want to say we might have a SLOP2 situation developing (well received film that still gets a "nah, one was enough; I'm good"), as it is far too early to say that.  And TROS could always prove to be just as divisive as its predecessor, allowing The Next Level room to roam.

 

But gots to say, these aren't really encouraging signs.  Not predicting doom and gloom as this is still the holidays coming up and there's plenty of movie going dollars to go around.  But not a great start.  Just no other way to put it.

Edited December 4, 2019 by Porthos

[Poseidon]

Jumanji is a comedy AND a kids movie. Pretty much the 2 least pre-sold genres out there.
 

The weeks after TG are usually pretty slow at the BO.

I wouldn't write this off, not at all. 

 

It's really hard to see them coming in december and we should really have a look if presales might be lower that time of the year for future comparisons. 

There was one thing in favour of the first Jumanji: It had huge trailer clicks.

Jumanji 2 doubled them...

I still think this could go anywhere between 150m and 350m+

Edited December 4, 2019 by Poseidon

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I still think this could go anywhere between 150m and 350m+

Idk man. That range seems risky...

[JB33]

Foes anyone have Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle comps by chance?

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, Eric Plus said:

Only thing that really surprised me was seeing Bombshell in the top 5. I don't expect this to happen, but it would be pretty funny if this followed Hustlers and was another hit movie Annapurna dropped

To be honest I'm not too surprised. It is a buzzy title with awards hopes starring a handful of the biggest names working today. The fact it placed higher than Cats does surprise me though lol (not even Taylor stans could upvote that one above a movie about Megyn Kelly).

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	27	5	17	3	2
Seats Sold	260	120	218	168	158
12/3/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	27,530	41,915	14,385	34.32%

 

 

Great day today.  Good to see such a solid recovery after yesterday's number.