The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/15/2021 at 1:39 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

48

661

7.26%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

5

753

0.66%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
154	32	9735	1.58%	15	46

Showings added: 7

Seats added: 1310

 

F9 day 2 comp: 5.44M

 

Fell down to Earth real fast. But makes sense given the other trackers' numbers.

Suicide Squad Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

53

661

8.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

16

753

2.12%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST ~26 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
188	34	9735	1.93%	15	46

 

F9 day 3 comp: 5.78M

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Suicide Squad, Jungle Cruise, Old and Snake Eyes all have lackluster sales around me. But Old should be walk-up heavy and attracts a horror audience 

[Chicago]

6 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

If we were going just by my local theaters, I'd say Space Jam was about to have a 20m OD. Sold out (minus front row) at 7 and 8 timeframes and well on the way to getting there for the 10pm timeframe. But this is a plurality black area where LeBron brought us two championships, so I imagine it is hella overperforming here. If it's somehow not hella performing here, this is getting closer to 40m than 25m this weekend. 

Unsurprising given the popularity of the first

[Chicago]

9 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

We've seen so far it doesn't affect much unless you think movies like In the Heights or Those Who Wish Me Dead would not have flopped had they not been theatrical exclusive. We've seen so far, movies that flop in the box-office, also flop on the service.

I dont think we can come to any conclusions after just a month or so as there are too many factors still at play. In a year or 2 from now we will have a bigger picture and if the format continues, we could see less high earning blockbusters than before.

 

Some people go to the cinema for the theatrical experience, others go because it's the fastest way to see the movie. There has to be some negative box office effect 

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	83	5106	1.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.084x of Mortal Kombat's Fri T-7 (762K)

0.105x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-7 (2.03M)

0.441x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-7 (3.40M)

 

I know these numbers are still fine, but the film has really slowed down the last two days and I hope there's some sort of rebound soon.

Snake Eyes Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	27	87	5202	1.67%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 96

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.081x of Mortal Kombat's Fri T-6 (738K)

0.097x of A Quiet Place Part II's Thu+Fri T-6 (1.88M)

0.259x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-6 (1.99M)

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	38	6530	0.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 20

Jungle Cruise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	35	46	7427	0.62%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 897

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.687x of Cruella's Thu+Fri T-13 (5.29M)

 

Finally we have a comp! Though don't expect this comp to last nor be truly indicative of anything at this point.

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric E Coyote said:

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	28	164	6431	2.55%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 3

Total Seats Added Today: 446

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

 

Comp

0.333x of F9 T-21 (2.37M)

0.116x of Black Widow T-21 (1.53M)

The Suicide Squad Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting (Thu)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	190	7364	2.58%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 933

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

0.356x of F9 T-20 (2.53M)

0.129x of Black Widow T-20 (1.71M)

[Eric Duncan]

Aside, I've reached the 2,000 post milestone here! Don't know if I should be proud of that or not, but I am only 51 posts away from reaching second place. @WrathOfHan better watch his back!

[keysersoze123]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Morning BW is catching up. But delta is high. Also there was an issue with $ value for MTC1 as shows with ticket prices like 8.89 was not working(some recent change broke the tracker). 

 

SJ2

MTC1 - 124907/480276 1415129.72 3189 shows

MTC2 - 115591/426929 1105673.96 3370 shows

 

BW

MTC1 - 43924/859659 609908.42 4952 shows (OD finish 442690/1236881 5059891.00)

MTC2 - 28880/670956 319694.58 5014 shows (OD finish 350320/1051542 3801320.78)

SJ2 OD

MTC1 - 236402/491334 2692153.74 3331 shows

MTC2 - 219360/456625 2117809.60 3644 shows

 

Excellent day overall. Since its playing well almost everywhere I think 13.5m OD for SJ2. 

 

 

BW Day 8

MTC1 - 125249/853650 1695412.43 4924 shows

MTC2 - 103396/672019 1118601.93 4945 shows

 

its walkups were quite good especially at MTC2. I would say 7.9m friday.

 

I will see if I can post PS for Day 2/Day 9 or I will do it tomorrow. I cant see BW winning the weekend after this friday as SJ2 is strong with walkups. 

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I would say 7.9m friday.

Is this including Ontario, or not? I would imagine a 20% MTC increase vs Th ~> 7M in holdover markets ~> high 7s overall.   
 

Or are we talking a ~30% MTC increase vs Th for ~8M in holdover markets maybe mid-high 8s overall?

Edited July 17, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

So 48% as expected, with PSm around 2.35x and not 3x plus as you would expect from this sort of movie. Anyhow few questions @keysersoze123 are you considering all tickets adult for this one or all tickets kids. ATP of $11.4 seems too high considering we had I think around $10 for Frozen 2.

[charlie Jatinder]

SJ 2 may be 12.5-13M IMO. BW 9-9.25M.

 

I am assuming that Keyser SJ gross numbers are assuming adult tickets, so I discounted them.

BW had $11.4 MTC 1 ATP on Friday. SJ2 cant possibly have that much. More likely $10.

Edited July 17, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So 48% as expected, with PSm around 2.35x and not 3x plus as you would expect from this sort of movie. Anyhow few questions @keysersoze123 are you considering all tickets adult for this one or all tickets kids. ATP of $11.4 seems too high considering we had I think around $10 for Frozen 2.

 

I look at only adult tickets. the MTC ratio tends to be higher if it has children tickets. But overall unless 50% of audience is kids it wont make that much of a difference. Saturday on the other hand is more family skewed. Plus with HBO Max streaming, how much would family dominate as opposed to teens/adults. 

 

Anyway I could be off on both. Its just a projection. Let us wait for RTH or Deadline numbers. Its easier to extrapolate saturday with friday numbers. 

 

  

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

SJ 2 may be 12.5-13M IMO. BW 9-9.25M.

 

you could be right with SJ2 if child tickets play a bigger role but BW number looks high to me. It dropped more than 70% in MTC2. My $ value last friday would be slightly under reported in MTC1 as well. 

 

@Lokis Legion I have not taken Ontario as there are too many unknowns. Other smaller chains could underperform as BW is more dependent on big markets looking at MTC1/2 share. 

Edited July 17, 2021 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

My $ value last friday would be slightly under reported in MTC1 as well. 

That would change my projection because I was basing on those. Since MTC 1 gross drop was like 67%. In that case make it $8.5-8.75M.

[charlie Jatinder]

Space Jam 2 is highest occupancy we had at 48%, minus GvK which was social distanced era. TROS was 42% on its opening Friday. Endgame was probably 80-85%.

[keysersoze123]

SJ2 PS down 35% tomorrow but I expect overall drop to be better as it had great walk ups today. I think SJ2 will win saturday as well and weekend would not be close. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I am thinking 32-33 for SJ2 and 27-29 for Widow.

[Porthos]

On 7/15/2021 at 10:43 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	13740	13952	212	1.52%

 

Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Added Today	2243
Total Seats Sold Today	34

 

Day 2 Unadjusted Comp - PROBABLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
F9	45.01		78	471		0/92	13512/13983	3.37%		3.20		3.33
BW	16.15		224	1313		0/104	16873/18186	7.22%		2.13		2.22

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.96 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

Day 2 Adjusted Comp - CERTAINLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	80.77		100	260		1/28	1083/1343	19.36%		3.88		4.04
TSS (adj)	---		32	210		0/81	13622/13832	1.52%		---		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

 

===

 

Pretty 'eh' day.  Slowdown is already here and it's gonna be some slow sledding until it starts to pick up again.  Did decide to add an Ontario comp as a separate field after all. Ontario is about 4% to 4.5% of the DOM according to @charlie Jatinder (and others), so I just went with 4% to be on the safer side.  Did decide to divide the comp by 0.96 (which is the equivalent of multiplying by 1.041667) for reasons.  Prob doesn't matter which way I do it, but I'll stick with this for now as I ain't quite comfortable enough with multiplying by 1.045 and 1.04 looks a little tiny bit too conservative.  

 

The Suicide Squad Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	13711	13952	241	1.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

Day 3 Unadjusted Comp - PROBABLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
F9	43.90		78	549		0/92	13434/13983	3.93%		3.12		3.26
BW	16.09		185	1498		0/104	16688/18186	8.24%		2.12		2.22

ONTARIO COMP NOTE: Ont Comp is the number given in the Comp column/0.955 to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market.

 

Day 3 Adjusted Comp - CERTAINLY LOL AT THIS POINT - USE AT OWN RISK

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp		Ont Comp
AQP II	77.85		47	307		2/28	1036/1343	22.86%		3.74		3.91
TSS (adj)	---		29	239		0/81	13593/13832	1.73%		---		---

SELLOUT NOTE:  Locally, AQP II was still under a capacity cap, which greatly inflated the number of sellouts as well as depressing the amount of seats available.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TSS (adj) is the amount of seats sold without DBOX seats counted, which started to be tracked with F9's track.

Edited September 11, 2021 by Porthos

[Chicago]

Space Jam would have opened over 50m pre pandemic, maybe 60

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Jungle Cruise	T-13	Jacksonville	5	27	4,984	27	4	0.54%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,213	14	0	0.33%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,288	32	7	0.97%
Jungle Cruise Total			18	76	12,485	73	11	0.58%
Old	T-6	Jacksonville	5	10	1,921	15	6	0.78%
		Phoenix	6	12	1,788	21	3	1.17%
		Raleigh	8	14	1,324	13	4	0.98%
Old Total			19	36	5,033	49	13	0.97%
Snake Eyes	T-6	Jacksonville	5	16	2,916	21	2	0.72%
		Phoenix	6	11	2,540	29	2	1.14%
		Raleigh	8	17	2,215	45	11	2.03%
Snake Eyes Total			19	44	7,671	95	15	1.24%
Suicide Squad	T-20	Jacksonville	5	20	3,795	40	8	1.05%
		Phoenix	6	18	3,651	57	5	1.56%
		Raleigh	7	23	2,986	68	12	2.28%
Suicide Squad Total			18	61	10,432	165	25	1.58%

 

Movie	Day	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
Jungle Cruise	T-12	Jacksonville	5	27	4,984	35	8	0.70%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,213	22	8	0.52%
		Raleigh	7	26	3,288	26	-6	0.79%
Jungle Cruise Total			18	76	12,485	83	10	0.66%
Old	T-5	Jacksonville	5	10	1,921	17	2	0.88%
		Phoenix	6	12	1,788	23	2	1.29%
		Raleigh	8	14	1,324	14	1	1.06%
Old Total			19	36	5,033	54	5	1.07%
Snake Eyes	T-5	Jacksonville	5	16	2,916	20	-1	0.69%
		Phoenix	6	11	2,540	33	4	1.30%
		Raleigh	8	17	2,215	55	10	2.48%
Snake Eyes Total			19	44	7,671	108	13	1.41%
Suicide Squad	T-19	Jacksonville	5	20	3,795	46	6	1.21%
		Phoenix	6	18	3,651	65	8	1.78%
		Raleigh	7	23	2,986	79	11	2.65%
Suicide Squad Total			18	61	10,432	190	25	1.82%

 

Always hate Saturday reports.  Only 53 new sales between the four upcoming movies and probably nothing worth looking at yet.  I checked the showings for Green Knight and it had about 8 tickets sold already (Old didn't sell its first ticket in these cities until T-7 so maybe I should track this?)