The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[lorddemaxus]

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

The bad reviews for Space Jam 2 probably aren't helping its ticket sales (at least for a real breakout of sorts given its availability to watch at home the same day). Of course I'm not sure anyone expected it to get good reviews in the first place but those who were on the fence will likely just choose to watch it on HBO Max instead of venturing to a theater to spend $10+ on a ticket.

 

[Madhuvan]

6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

 

Don't think many family will come to theatre anyway when they can watch it on HBO MAX and now with bad reviews parents are more likely to just watch at home. it's not like movie is marketed as event or something. Aladdin or TLK also got negative reviews but they were events so worked more on word of mouth.

Space Jam 2 won't have that novelty factor. 

[Inceptionzq]

Space Jam Denver Friday

 

2430 tickets sold across 15 theaters

 

The Conjuring comp: 9.35M

AQP2 Friday comp: 9.10M

GvK Friday comp: 7.45M

 

Don't really have anything good for Friday comps, so excuse all that I just threw there. The Quiet Place 2 and GvK Friday comps were done the morning of, so I guess that's encouraging. Didn't bother to mess with adjusting up because of ATP differences. Don't know how even that'll make it, but eh. And I didn't do a MK or GvK OD comp because of presale frontloading by fans.

[Madhuvan]

1 minute ago, Inceptionzq said:

Space Jam Denver Friday

 

2430 tickets sold across 15 theaters

 

The Conjuring comp: 9.35M

AQP2 Friday comp: 9.10M

GvK Friday comp: 7.45M

 

Don't really have anything good for Friday comps, so excuse all that I just threw there. The Quiet Place 2 and GvK Friday comps were done the morning of, so I guess that's encouraging. Didn't bother to mess with adjusting up because of ATP differences. Don't know how even that'll make it, but eh. And I didn't do a MK or GvK OD comp because of presale frontloading by fans.

This is really good for family film. Hmm Anything around 8m on Friday will sureshot make it No 1 film next weekend. 

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Don't think many family will come to theatre anyway when they can watch it on HBO MAX and now with bad reviews parents are more likely to just watch at home. it's not like movie is marketed as event or something. Aladdin or TLK also got negative reviews but they were events so worked more on word of mouth.

Space Jam 2 won't have that novelty factor. 

Why are you overthinking the headline to an Onion article? It's a joke.

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Space Jam Megaplex Friday

 

2135(+659) tickets sold across 14 theaters

 

Black Widow comp: 6.57M

 

Again, presale heavy chain for Marvel, so the comp is likely underselling it. Still, it's encouraging.

Not just Marvel for all films. In fact from smaller films OW go over 1% as well, Jumanji OD was 1.34%. So just frontloaded chain in general.

[Porthos]

I was just doing some thinking and I might be underestimating how much Ontario is gonna matter (it has to do with theater/screen closures in the US affecting the percentage of the DOM market that Ontario makes up).  But before I really commit to this, I'd like to ask @Tinalera @cax16 and @Jason if they know if there's been any theater closures in Ontario.  Minor chains that might not have survived.  Cineplex not reopening all of its locations.  That sort of thing.

 

Actually matters a teeny bit around the edges and it might make me want to bump up my comp from dividing by 0.96 to dividing by 0.952.

 

Not the hugest difference in the world, but something I'm a little bit interested in if anyone knows the answer.

 

EDIT:::

 

The reason it might matter is this.  If Ontario made up 4 - 4.5 percent of the 2019 (and before) DOM market and if the DOM everywhere outside of Ontario has shrunk thanks to theater closures (and we know it has thanks to reports of folks losing their locals + screen loss information from Deadline + anecdotal tracking info comparing our tracks from 2019 to 2021) then Ontario will make up a slightly larger section of the 2021 DOM market.  The analogy is taking the same amount of stuff out of a larger pie versus a smaller one.  The percentage is gonna change when taken out of a smaller pie.

 

Not a huge amount, no.  But enough that I'm actually slightly curious.  Mind, if there has been theater closures in Ontario, then I ain't gonna bother.  Might not even bother if there aren't, frankly.  But might persuade me to use the higher end of Jat's estimate about how much Ontario matters rather than the lower one.

 

 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Very soft start to TSS. Didn't expect that. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Canada is relatively backloaded so not sure if that will be truer for Ontario as well. Ontario 4.3% was for full run, for OW may be take ~4%.

[Saul Goodman]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Very soft start to TSS. Didn't expect that. 

Any estimates?

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Very soft start to TSS. Didn't expect that. 

 

I'm having a hard time getting over the last one...My teen girls asked why it has a "the" b/c it's a sequel and why it isn't #2...

 

It may end up paying for the sins of the last on OW...of course, if it's awesome, like Wonder Woman 1, we could see the film make up for the sins through its legs,,,

[cax16]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

I was just doing some thinking and I might be underestimating how much Ontario is gonna matter (it has to do with theater/screen closures in the US affecting the percentage of the DOM market that Ontario makes up).  But before I really commit to this, I'd like to ask @Tinalera @cax16 and @Jason if they know if there's been any theater closures in Ontario.  Minor chains that might not have survived.  Cineplex not reopening all of its locations.  That sort of thing.

 

Actually matters a teeny bit around the edges and it might make me want to bump up my comp from dividing by 0.96 to dividing by 0.952.

 

Not the hugest difference in the world, but something I'm a little bit interested in if anyone knows the answer.

 

EDIT:::

 

The reason it might matter is this.  If Ontario made up 4 - 4.5 percent of the 2019 (and before) DOM market and if the DOM everywhere outside of Ontario has shrunk thanks to theater closures (and we know it has thanks to reports of folks losing their locals + screen loss information from Deadline + anecdotal tracking info comparing our tracks from 2019 to 2021) then Ontario will make up a slightly larger section of the 2021 DOM market.  The analogy is taking the same amount of stuff out of a larger pie versus a smaller one.  The percentage is gonna change when taken out of a smaller pie.

 

Not a huge amount, no.  But enough that I'm actually slightly curious.  Mind, if there has been theater closures in Ontario, then I ain't gonna bother.  Might not even bother if there aren't, frankly.  But might persuade me to use the higher end of Jat's estimate about how much Ontario matters rather than the lower one.

 

 

No theatres around here have closed and I haven’t read about any other closures. From the looks of the list of the two chains I looked at they all seem open. Maybe the other guys have more info. 

[cax16]

25 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I'm having a hard time getting over the last one...My teen girls asked why it has a "the" b/c it's a sequel and why it isn't #2...

 

It may end up paying for the sins of the last on OW...of course, if it's awesome, like Wonder Woman 1, we could see the film make up for the sins through its legs,,,

Yup, unfortunately cause this one is doing the dual release as well many people who didn’t like the first one probably won’t be giving the second one a shot in the theatres while they already pay for max. I imagine max numbers for this one will probably be high and we’ll see 30-40m opening weekend. 
 

Hoping for decent legs but I’m not sure how that will work out cause of the max release. Hopefully they got a better movie this time so it helps rebuild the brand. 

[Krissykins]

I’m going to guess preview numbers:

 

Escape Room 2: $1.2m

Space Jam: $1.8m

Edited July 16, 2021 by Krissykins

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, Krissykins said:

I’m going to guess preview numbers:

 

Escape Room 2: $1.2m

Space Jam: $2.3m 

Great guess for ER2. However, SJ2 did not have any previews. If it did, I would have guessed somewhere around $3m.

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Great guess for ER2. However, SJ2 did not have any previews. If it did, I would have guessed somewhere around $3m.

Ah whoops. I didn’t realise. I remember now, Conjuring 3 didn’t either. 

[efialtes76]

33 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’m going to guess preview numbers:

 

Escape Room 2: $1.2m

Space Jam: $1.8m

Space Jam didn't had previews.

[lorddemaxus]

With Suicide Squad, The HBO Max release isn't going to change much, like it didn't with any other recent WB release (both the flops and successes). If it does bad in the boxoffice, I expect poor numbers on HBO Max too. The people who didn't like the first one and expect this to be as awful as the first probably wouldn't watch this in the cinemas regardless.

Edited July 16, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[katnisscinnaplex]

Presales are insane for Space Jam.  Still pulling numbers but it's even more than I was expecting.

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Presales are insane for Space Jam.  Still pulling numbers but it's even more than I was expecting.

 

Time for some non-sold holdover shows to get scratched tonight and tomorrow to make way for more Space Jam 2 excitement:)...we may have an event movie, even if we don't want it to be an event:)!

Edited July 16, 2021 by TwoMisfits