The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

So, what are we thinking for Free Guy now? Reaching $20M seems like a pipe dream at this point. If Deadline is proven right then Shang-Chi is absolutely fucked. There's no way Hollywood will not freak out when a Marvel movie opens to $23M over 4 days.

i am sure that deadline being proven  right for one movie certainly means that they will be right again with a movie that hadnt even its presales start....seems logical....

Edited August 11, 2021 by john2000

[Chicago]

20 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

So, what are we thinking for Free Guy now? Reaching $20M seems like a pipe dream at this point. If Deadline is proven right then Shang-Chi is absolutely fucked. There's no way Hollywood will not freak out when a Marvel movie opens to $23M over 4 days.

Shang Chi really doesn't look appealing at all. I wouldn't be surprised to see it open low

[Menor the Destroyer]

21 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

So, what are we thinking for Free Guy now? Reaching $20M seems like a pipe dream at this point. If Deadline is proven right then Shang-Chi is absolutely fucked. There's no way Hollywood will not freak out when a Marvel movie opens to $23M over 4 days.

There is no correlation between Deadline's predictions for Free Guy and Shang-Chi and I have no clue why you think there is. 

[AJG]

Deadline were right on point for their Black Widow  projection.

[Lion Roar]

DL never gave gave a forecast for Shang Chi, what they said was that it only needs to beat GotG's Labor Day weekend gross to be considered doing well. Which it obviously will. 

[TwoMisfits]

Shang Chi isn't being sold yet, but my Cinemarks have preset for 4 (16 showings) and almost 3 screens (11 showings) - the 2nd seems low for my local Cinemark and superheroes (especially since that Cinemark shows the Asian import movies), but we'll see...

 

My local Regals have not pre-set - I guess they are waiting on the final Disney word on full theatrical...

[Napoleon]

 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Lion Roar said:

DL never gave gave a forecast for Shang Chi, what they said was that it only needs to beat GotG's Labor Day weekend gross to be considered doing well. Which it obviously will. 

I’m not sure why they said that would be considered good for Shang-Chi. 
 

Plus, Halloween (2007) still holds the Labour day opening record with $30.6m.
 

I’m sure Shang-Chi will beat that, if not, big yikes and Halloween keeps its 14 year record. 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

 

Doesnt mean anything there is no tracking without data and not data without presales.....

Edited August 11, 2021 by john2000

[charlie Jatinder]

Hopefully @keysersoze123 will report MTC1 today.  Assuming MTC2 don't over index, may be 7K by end of today in MTC 2 and then 3.25x PSm on THU for 23K final. Using normal ratios, that would be $1.8M previews. 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

 

Shang Chi may open $20M for all its sake but I stopped caring about traditional tracking 2 years ago. 

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

 

Without data this means nothing, only that Disney isn't expecting much which is understandable considering the situation.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Without data this means nothing, only that Disney isn't expecting much which is understandable considering the situation.

Yeah soft can mean anything. We already know it will be soft for an MCU movie but there is a huge range within that. 

[charlie Jatinder]

The tracking mentioned above is on basis on polling of few thousands people on how they know about film and stuff. Nothing too objective like pre-sales where buzz of film is shown by wallet of 100s of thousands of people.

[Lion Roar]

14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I’m not sure why they said that would be considered good for Shang-Chi. 
 

Plus, Halloween (2007) still holds the Labour day opening record with $30.6m.
 

I’m sure Shang-Chi will beat that, if not, big yikes and Halloween keeps its 14 year record. 

Read to me like the guy was having a bit of a meltdown over TSS's numbers and was trying to preemptively prepare himself for a similar performance by ShangChi by somehow justifying that it would still be a good result somehow. 

[Cmasterclay]

Question: haven't we had quite a few films overperform with final day sales/walkups this summer, or is it just me? Seem to remember that for AQP2, F9, Purge, Jungle Cruise, and even Suicide Squad for all the disappointment it was. Pretty much everything outside BW and Escape Room. I'm not ruling out 2m for Free Guy just yet.

[el sid]

Respect counted today at 11am EST for Friday, August 13:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 32 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 10 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 20 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 23 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 38 (6 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 129.
I have no good comps: As suggested, Spiral (8.8M OW) had in 4 theaters 321 sold tickets on Wednesday for Friday (would be vs 97 sold tickets here).
Cats (6.6M OW, way worse reviews) had on Wednesday 225 sold tickets in 6 theaters (would be vs 98 tickets here).
Blinded by the Light (4.3M OW) had on Wednesday 60 sold tickets in 5 theaters (here vs 74).

 

Free Guy counted today at 11am EST for Friday, August 13:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 92 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 53 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 17 (10 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 20 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 124 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 141 (10 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 452.

Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday, always the same 7 theaters): JC (35.0M OW) had 655 sold tickets (=69% at the moment, 24.15M OW, but I doubt that it will have the same walk-ups or will it?),
THWB (11.4M OW) had only 132 sold tickets (but nice walk-ups),
Snake Eyes (not really fitting, 13.4M OW) had 590 sold tickets
and Zombieland 2 (26.8M OW) had 727.
Not great, not bad. All depends on walk-ups and maybe it has a nice presales jump till tomorrow.

Don't Breathe 2 counted today at 11am EST for Friday, August 13:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 51 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 8 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (9 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 24 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 93 (8 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 197.

Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday, always the same 7 theaters): Old (16.9M OW) had 262 sold tickets,
The Conjuring 3 (24.1M OW) had 1.074 sold tickets,
Crawl (12.0M OW) had 170 sold tickets,
Scary Stories (20.9M OW) had 377 sold tickets,

The Invisible Man (28.2M OW) 628

and The Forever Purge (12.6M OW) had on Wednesday for Thursday 168 sold tickets.
So at the moment low to mid-teens I would say.

Edited August 11, 2021 by el sid

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

However, Free Guy arrives at a time when there’s some concern over the looming delta variant, not to mention kids are heading back to school and it’s original IP, which is always a B.O. challenge. As such, stateside, the hope is that Free Guy gets to mid-to-high teens at the B.O. at 4,100 theaters. A $20M+ start would be phenomenal, but isn’t guaranteed. Disney did open Jungle Book two weekends ago at $35M, $10M more than tracking, and at a time when there were still concerns about the delta variant.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Deadline has Respect at high single digit opening and Don't Breathe at 8-10m

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Deadline has Respect at high single digit opening and Don't Breathe at 8-10m

JC for #2 this week will be fun.